I'm a long-term growth and dividend-growth investor covering both US and European equity markets. I seek undervalued stocks and high-quality dividend growers that generate dependable cash flow for reinvestment. I share one of my portfolios on eToro where I qualified as a popular investor. Through years of experience, I've learned that sustained profitability—evident in strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital—is a more reliable driver of returns than valuatio ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures by 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 1.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55%, France's CAC40 up 1.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.02% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 0.07% to $66.76 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.13% to $69.41 per barrel [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is not yet prepared to lower interest rates, with officials divided on the timing and evidence needed for such a decision [5] - The upcoming cryptocurrency policy report from the White House is anticipated to be a catalyst for the crypto market, alongside the Fed's interest rate decision [5] Company News - Oppenheimer raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7100 points, citing easing trade tensions and strong corporate earnings, indicating an 11% upside from the latest closing price [6] - Novo Nordisk lowered its 2025 sales growth and profit expectations, projecting sales growth of 8%-14% compared to a previous forecast of 13%-21% [7] - UnitedHealth's second-quarter earnings guidance fell short of expectations, forecasting adjusted EPS of at least $16, significantly below the analyst consensus of $20.40 [8] - UPS refrained from providing earnings guidance due to market volatility, reporting Q2 revenue of $21.2 billion, a 2.8% year-over-year decline [8][9] - Stellantis restored its earnings guidance but warned of a €1.2 billion (approximately $1.4 billion) tariff impact in the second half of the year [9] - Nomura Holdings reported a 52% year-over-year increase in Q1 net profit, driven by strong trading and investment banking performance [10] - Barclays announced a 23% increase in first-half profits and a $1.3 billion stock buyback plan, benefiting from market trading activity [11] - Whirlpool's Q2 sales fell 5.4% to $3.77 billion, below market expectations, and it lowered its full-year EPS guidance [12] - Philips slightly raised its adjusted operating margin forecast for the year, indicating that the impact of trade tensions was less severe than previously feared [13] Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data includes the US wholesale inventory month-on-month change and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [14][15] - Earnings reports are expected from Visa, Booking, Starbucks, UBS, Rio Tinto, UMC, New Oriental, and HSBC [17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated shipments decreased by 7% to 2,700,000 units, with declines in North America and large Europe, partially offset by growth in South America and the Middle East and Africa [10] - Net revenue fell by 13% to €74 billion, impacted by adverse regional mix and lower pricing [10] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share and industrial free cash flow showed improvement compared to 2024, despite an outflow of €3 billion in the first half [11][12] - AOI margin was compressed to 70 basis points, reflecting a significant increase in industrial costs [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and Europe are in turnaround phases, while South America and Middle East and Africa are delivering consistent results [15] - In North America, performance was affected by tariffs and lower fleet performance, while Europe saw a 13% decline in LCV volumes [16] - South America maintained market share leadership, with industry growth in Brazil and Argentina [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and Europe are experiencing a recovery, with North America showing a 90% year-over-year improvement in order books [34] - European market share increased to 17%, up 1.3 percentage points from H2 2024, with significant growth in BEV and hybrid vehicle sales [35][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on growth, execution, and profitability, with a lineup of new vehicles and powertrains [24] - Key actions include launching new products, improving inventory discipline, and reestablishing financial guidance for the second half of 2025 [19][20] - The leadership team is committed to making tough decisions to accelerate business recovery [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The first half of 2025 was challenging, but there are signs of improvement, with expectations for gradual sequential acceleration in the second half [19][40] - The company is addressing past mistakes by reintroducing successful nameplates and adjusting product strategies to meet customer demand [73] Other Important Information - Industrial liquidity at the end of H1 was €47 billion, with €31 billion in cash and liquid securities [17] - The expected net tariff expense for the year is projected to be around €1.5 billion due to increased production levels [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Focus on U.S. Market and Profitability Improvement - Management emphasized growth in North America through new product launches and optimizing the mix between ICE and electrified models [45] Question: Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength - Management acknowledged high cash burn but noted a significant reduction and expected further improvement in the second half [54] Question: Brand Portfolio Strategy - Management recognized the strength of their iconic brand portfolio and is working on better management and efficiency [60] Question: Pricing Pressure in Europe - Management indicated that market share is improving, and they expect better profit generation in H2 despite industry challenges [66] Question: Relationship with U.S. Dealers - Management reported improved dialogue with dealers, resulting in a 90% year-over-year increase in order inflow [85] Question: Guidance on Free Cash Flow - Management expressed commitment to gradual improvement in cash flow, with expectations for increased volumes and better pricing in the second half [92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated shipments decreased by 7% to 2,700,000 units, with declines in North America and large Europe, partially offset by growth in South America and the Middle East and Africa [9] - Net revenue fell by 13% to €74 billion, impacted by adverse regional mix and lower pricing [9][10] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share and industrial free cash flow showed improvement compared to 2024, despite an outflow of €3 billion in the first half [11][12] - AOI margin was compressed to 70 basis points, reflecting a significant increase in industrial costs [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America and Europe are in turnaround phases, while South America and Middle East and Africa are delivering consistent results [16] - In North America, performance was affected by tariffs and lower fleet performance, while Europe faced a 13% decline in LCV volumes [17] - South America maintained market share leadership, with industry growth in Brazil and Argentina [17] - Middle East and Africa experienced FX headwinds but continued to show business momentum [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw a significant impact from tariffs, with expectations of €1.5 billion in net tariff expenses for the year [20] - European market share increased to 17%, up 1.3 percentage points from H2 2024, driven by new product launches [39] - The company is now the second in European BEV volumes and first in hybrids [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on growth, execution, and profitability, with a lineup of new vehicles and powertrains [27] - Key actions include ending unprofitable initiatives and launching products that align with customer needs [24][25] - The leadership team is committed to making tough decisions to accelerate business recovery [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The first half of 2025 was challenging, but there are signs of improvement and a commitment to sequential growth in the second half [7][21] - The company aims to improve AOI margins and free cash flow in the second half, with expectations of increased net revenues [21] - Management acknowledges the need for ongoing adjustments to address market challenges and improve profitability [42] Other Important Information - Industrial liquidity at the end of H1 was €47 billion, with €31 billion in cash and liquid securities [19] - The company is updating its long-term strategic plan, to be presented at the Capital Markets Day in early 2026 [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Focus on U.S. Market and Profitability Improvement - Management emphasized growth in North America through new product launches and optimizing the mix between ICE and electrified models [50][51] Question: Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength - Management acknowledged high cash burn but noted a reduction in the cash burn rate and a focus on achieving positive cash flow [60][61] Question: Brand Portfolio Strategy - Management highlighted the importance of managing a diverse brand portfolio effectively and indicated that updates would be provided at the Capital Markets Day [64][66] Question: Pricing Pressure in Europe - Management noted that while pricing pressure exists, market share is improving, and new products are expected to enhance profitability [70][72] Question: Diagnosis of Profitability Decline - Management identified the phase-out of successful nameplates as a key issue and is working to restore these products to improve market share [78][79] Question: Relationship with U.S. Dealers - Management reported improved dialogue with dealers, resulting in a significant increase in order inflow [90] Question: Guidance on Free Cash Flow - Management expressed commitment to improving free cash flow in H2, despite external headwinds and tariff impacts [95][96]

Group 1 - The CEO of Stellantis (STLA.US) reported a 16% reduction in inventory levels in Europe and North America in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024 [1]

Financial Performance - Net revenues reached €743 billion, a decrease of 13% year-over-year [11, 15, 19, 37] - Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) was €05 billion, with an AOI margin of 07%, a decrease of 930 bps [11, 15, 22, 37] - Industrial Free Cash Flow (FCF) was negative €30 billion, compared to negative €04 billion in the previous year [11, 15, 28, 37] - Adjusted Diluted EPS was €018, a decrease of 92% [15, 37] Regional Performance - North America (NA) reported net revenues of €282 billion and an AOI loss of €10 billion, with an AOI margin of negative 34% [34] - Enlarged Europe reported net revenues of €292 billion and an AOI of €90 million, with an AOI margin of 00% [34] - South America reported net revenues of €78 billion and an AOI of €12 billion, with an AOI margin of 153% [34] - Middle East & Africa reported net revenues of €49 billion and an AOI of €08 billion, with an AOI margin of 155% [34] Strategic Initiatives and Outlook - The company estimates a net tariff impact of approximately €15 billion for 2025 [11, 40] - H2 2025 guidance indicates sequential improvement in net revenues and industrial FCF compared to H1 2025, with a low-single digit AOI margin [11, 42] - The company is adapting to evolving tariffs and focusing on mitigation strategies [39, 41]

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures are showing positive movement, with Dow futures up 0.16%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.40% [1] Technology Sector - Most technology stocks are rising, with Nvidia up over 1.5% in pre-market trading, and AMD and Advanced Micro Devices both up over 1% [2] - Nvidia reportedly placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC, contributing to its pre-market increase of over 1.5% [4] Chinese Stocks - Several Chinese stocks are experiencing significant gains, including Li Auto up over 4%, GDS Holdings up over 3%, and Miniso and NIO both up over 1% [3] Biotechnology Sector - Sarepta Therapeutics saw a pre-market surge of over 40% after the FDA authorized the resumption of its gene therapy Elevidys for treating Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) [5] Apple Inc. - Apple announced the closure of its first direct retail store in China, located in Dalian, set to close on August 9, 2025, due to the departure of multiple retailers from the shopping center [6] Tesla Inc. - Tesla's Shanghai energy storage superfactory has officially produced its 1,000th Megapack energy storage system, which will be shipped to Europe [7] Automotive Industry - Ford has signed a new $3 billion revolving credit agreement, with a borrowing term lasting until July 28, 2026 [8] - Stellantis reported a 13% year-over-year decline in net revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling €74.3 billion, primarily impacted by declines in North America and Europe, resulting in a net loss of €2.3 billion compared to a net profit of €5.6 billion in the same period last year [9]

Group 1 - Major stock index futures are showing positive movement, with Dow futures up 0.16%, S&P 500 futures up 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.40% [1] - Technology stocks are mostly rising, with Nvidia up over 1.5% and AMD and Advanced Micro Devices up over 1% [2] - Some Chinese concept stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Li Auto up over 4%, Global Data up over 3%, and Miniso and NIO up over 1% [2] Group 2 - Nvidia reportedly placed an order for 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC, contributing to its pre-market rise of over 1.5% [4] - Sarepta Therapeutics saw a pre-market surge of over 40% after the FDA authorized the resumption of its gene therapy Elevidys for treating Duchenne muscular dystrophy [5] - Apple announced the closure of its first direct store in China, located in Dalian, due to the departure of several retailers from the shopping center, with the store set to close on August 9, 2025 [6] Group 3 - Ford has signed a new $3 billion term loan agreement, which will last until July 28, 2026, with drawn loans maturing on December 31, 2028 [8] - Stellantis reported a 13% year-over-year decline in net revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling €74.3 billion, primarily due to declines in North America and Europe, resulting in a net loss of €2.3 billion compared to a net profit of €5.6 billion in the same period last year [9]

Core Viewpoint - Stellantis faces significant challenges due to new tariffs resulting from a trade agreement between the EU and the US, leading to a projected impact of approximately €1.2 billion (around $1.4 billion) in the second half of the year while attempting to restore financial guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Stellantis expects adjusted operating profit margins to remain in the low single digits for the second half of the year, a downward revision from previous forecasts made in April [1] - The company reported a cash flow consumption of €3 billion ($3.48 billion) in the first half, but anticipates an improvement in industrial free cash flow for the second half [1] - Revenue for the first half of the year decreased by 13% to €74.3 billion, with a net loss of €2.3 billion, primarily due to reduced investments and trade war costs [2] Group 2: Market Challenges - The North American market is experiencing the most severe issues, with a 25% drop in shipments in the second quarter, leading to a net revenue of just over €28 billion, which was surpassed by the European market's €29.2 billion for the first time [2] - The company is facing increased operational costs due to rising component prices and temporary shutdowns of factories in Canada and Mexico [2] - The luxury brand Maserati saw a significant decline in shipments, with profit margins dropping to -38% [2] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The new management team under CEO Antonio Filosa is tasked with making difficult decisions to restore profitability and improve operational results [2] - Analysts suggest that Stellantis' market share loss necessitates cost-cutting measures, but previous reductions may have been excessive, creating a dilemma for investors [3] - The company is pinning hopes for sales recovery on new models such as the Jeep Cherokee hybrid and Dodge Charger Sixpack, as it has already incurred approximately €300 million in losses due to US tariffs in the first half [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stellantis anticipates facing approximately €1.2 billion (around $1.4 billion) in tariff impacts in the second half of the year due to a new trade agreement between the EU and the US, while restoring its financial guidance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit margin for the second half is expected to remain in the low single digits, a downward revision from the previously withdrawn full-year forecast of mid-single-digit profit margin due to tariff confusion [1] - Stellantis experienced a 13% year-on-year decline in half-year revenue to €74.3 billion, with a net loss of €2.3 billion, primarily due to reduced investments and trade war costs, resulting in an adjusted operating profit margin of only 0.7% [2] - North American net revenue slightly exceeded €28 billion, marking a significant drop of 25% in shipments during the second quarter, with the region's performance being severely impacted by rising component prices and temporary plant shutdowns in Canada and Mexico [2] Group 2: Strategic Challenges - The new CEO, Antonio Filosa, faces dual challenges of adapting to a changing automotive landscape and correcting previous strategic missteps, particularly in light of rising costs from trade policies and competition from Chinese automakers like BYD [1] - The company is relying on new models such as the Jeep Cherokee hybrid and Dodge Charger Sixpack to revive sales, as the market stagnation has led to a loss of market share and increased demand for cost-cutting measures [3] - The luxury brand Maserati has seen a significant drop in shipments, with profit margins plummeting to -38%, highlighting the challenges of overcapacity in Europe and the need for brand revitalization [2]