Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Trip.com Group (9961 HK) [1] Core Views - Trip com Group is entering a new growth cycle by integrating domestic and international travel services aiming to become the leading online travel platform in Asia and the leading online transportation ticketing platform globally [2][4] - The company has demonstrated strong profitability post the 2023Q4 and 2024Q1 compensatory demand period with a GMV of $160 billion in 2023 surpassing Booking's $150 6 billion [4] - The online travel industry has seen significant improvements in its operating ecosystem with increased online penetration and a shift towards more personalized and diversified travel demands [4] Summary by Sections Trip com Group Overview - Trip com Group has been a leader in the online travel industry for 25 years with a GMV of $160 billion in 2023 making it the largest globally [4] - The company has shown strong recovery in domestic travel with a 28% increase in accommodation bookings and a 41% increase in transportation bookings compared to 2019 [10] - The company's non GAAP net profit in 2023 was 3 0 times that of Booking compared to 4 7 times in 2019 indicating improved operational efficiency [4] Industry Trends - The online travel industry has seen a significant shift towards online penetration with OTA platforms playing a crucial role in meeting the demand for personalized and diversified travel experiences [4] - The industry is moving towards a more stable competitive landscape with players focusing on profitability and efficiency [13] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the online travel industry has stabilized with players focusing on profitability and efficiency [13] - The key competitive factors include supply chain integration fulfillment efficiency and the ability to adapt to changing consumer demands [51] Growth Prospects - Trip com Group is well positioned to benefit from the recovery of outbound travel with an estimated 54% market share in online outbound travel [5] - The company's Trip com platform is expected to grow at a mid double digit rate over the next 3 5 years with significant potential in the Asian market [5] - The company's international expansion is supported by its strong supply chain and customer service system which has been built over a decade [73] Investment Recommendation - The report maintains a positive outlook on Trip com Group with a target valuation of 20 22x for 2024 corresponding to a market cap of RMB 3092 3401 billion representing a 22% 35% upside from the current level [5] - The company's strong supply chain and fulfillment system along with its ability to optimize marketing efficiency and labor productivity are key factors supporting its growth [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Ctrip Group is entering a new development cycle by integrating domestic and international travel services, aiming to become the leading online travel platform in Asia and the foremost global transportation ticketing platform within the next 3-5 years [5][29] - The company achieved a GMV of $160 billion in 2023, surpassing Booking's $150.6 billion, indicating its strong market position [6] - Ctrip's profit margins have shown significant improvement, with a Non-GAAP net profit growth of 100% compared to 2019, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency and marketing effectiveness [6][18] Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - Ctrip's online outbound travel market share is approximately 54%, with expectations for revenue from outbound travel to recover to 85%-100% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024, contributing an estimated profit increase of 0.7-1.8 billion [7] - The company has maintained a strong performance in domestic travel, with a recovery rate of 81.38% in terms of travel volume compared to 2019 [38] Growth Outlook - The report forecasts that Ctrip will maintain a double-digit growth rate in its international expansion over the next 3-5 years, leveraging its established supply chain and customer service systems [7][29] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of international flight capacity and improved visa policies, which will enhance outbound travel demand [64][69] Competitive Landscape - The online travel agency (OTA) sector is experiencing a shift towards improved profitability and operational efficiency, with Ctrip positioned to capitalize on these trends [21][27] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with a focus on profitability and efficiency among key players, allowing Ctrip to leverage its first-mover advantages [21][27] Financial Projections - The report maintains projections for Ctrip's Non-GAAP net profit at 15.5 billion, 18.7 billion, and 22 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 16, 14, and 11 [7][29] - The company is expected to achieve a market capitalization of approximately 3.092 to 3.401 trillion RMB by 2024, indicating a potential upside of 22%-35% from current levels [7][29]

[Table_Page] 公告点评|消费者服务Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [【Table_广Title] 发商社&海外】携程网(TCOM)/ 公[Ta司ble评_Inv级est ] 买入-美股/买入-H 当前价格 57.05美元/440.00港元 携程集团-S(09961.HK) 合理价值 63.53美元/495.29港元 前次评级 买入/买入 利润超预期，海外业务持续高双位数增长 报告日期 2024-05-21 [ 核Tabl 心e_Su 观mm 点ary] ： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 携程集团发布 1Q24 业绩公告。公司 1Q24 实现收入 119.2 亿元，同 60% 携程网 纳斯达克 40% 比增长 29%；毛利率同比下降 1.0pps 至 81.2%，non-GAAP 归母净 20% 利润为40.6亿元，non-GAAP归母净利润率34%。 0% -20% ⚫ 根据公司1Q24财报，（1）1Q24住宿业务收入同比增长29%至45.0 -40% 亿元，收入占比38%。（2）1Q24交通业务收入同比增长20%至 -60% 2023-05 2023-08 2023-11 2024-02 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue reaching 11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and non-GAAP net profit of 4.055 billion, up 34% [4] - International travel demand is surging, with international OTA platform revenue growing over 80% due to favorable visa policies and increased flight capacity [4] - Domestic tourism remains robust, with hotel and flight bookings increasing over 20% year-on-year, particularly in lower-tier cities [4] - The company expects significant revenue growth driven by international business, forecasting revenues of 55.1 billion, 65.5 billion, and 74.5 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a non-GAAP EBITDA margin of 33.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The revenue breakdown for Q1 2024 includes accommodation bookings at 4.5 billion (up 29%), transportation ticketing at 5 billion (up 20%), vacation services at 883 million (up 129%), and business travel management at 511 million (up 15%) [4] - The company projects non-GAAP net profits of 16.045 billion, 18.812 billion, and 20.477 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.8%, 17.2%, and 8.9% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group Limited (携程集团-S) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net operating revenue of 11.9 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29%. Adjusted EBITDA was 4 billion yuan with an EBITDA margin of 33%. Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.06 billion yuan, up 96% year-on-year [6] - Domestic and international businesses continue to grow, with expectations that outbound business will return to pre-pandemic levels. Domestic hotel and flight bookings increased by over 20% year-on-year in Q1. Outbound hotel and flight bookings more than doubled year-on-year [6] - The international platform Trip.com contributed approximately 10% to the group's total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of about 80%. The inbound tourism market is expected to drive significant revenue growth for Trip.com [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 44.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to reach 13.07 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% increase [2][7] - The company’s adjusted net profit margin reached 34% in Q1 2024, with a gross margin of 81.2% [6] Business Segments - Domestic business growth is expected to outperform the industry average, while outbound business is showing strong recovery. The inbound tourism segment is becoming a significant growth driver for the company [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio based on adjusted earnings is projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7]

[Table_Header] 公司点评●社会服务 2024年 05 月23 日 [Table_Title] [Table_StockCode] 携程集团-S(9961) 营收利润恢复强劲，海外业务延续高增 [Table_InvestRank] 推荐 (首次) 核心观点： 分析师 [Table⚫_ Sum事m件ar：y] 公司发布 2024年一季报，公司 1Q24实现营收 119亿人民币/同比 [顾Ta熹b闽le_ Authors] +29%；归母净利 43 亿人民币/同比+28%；Non-GAAP 净利 40.6 亿/同比 ：18916370173 +96%。 ：guximin_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⚫ 1Q24 营收超指引，行业景气度延续：1Q24公司营收增速超上季末指引 分析师登记编码：S0130522070001 2pct。其中，国内机酒预订同比增速均超 20%，反映最新季度国内游景气 度仍保持相当韧性；出境机酒预订同比+100%，主要受益于国人出境游 需求复苏；此外，公司国际业务 Trip.com营收+80%，继续保持高速增长， [市Ta场ble数_M据ark et] 2024 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call was conducted by Guosen Securities, specifically targeting professional institutional clients or invited guests [1] Core Points and Arguments - The content of the meeting represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice for any individual [1] - Participants are advised to fully understand various investment risks and make independent investment decisions based on their own circumstances [1] - Recording or filming of the meeting is prohibited [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Emphasis on the importance of understanding investment risks highlights the cautious approach the company advocates for its clients [1] - The exclusivity of the meeting to professional clients suggests a focus on sophisticated investors, which may indicate the complexity of the topics discussed [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit performance, with a focus on the recovery of outbound travel and international growth. The strong growth in net operating income and profit is attributed to heightened travel sentiment and the easing of supply constraints in the tourism industry [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved net operating income of 11.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.3 billion yuan, also up 28% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit was 4.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 96% [4][6]. - The breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Transportation ticketing: 5 billion yuan (YoY +20%) - Accommodation bookings: 4.5 billion yuan (YoY +29%) - Travel vacation: 0.88 billion yuan (YoY +129%) - Business travel management: 0.51 billion yuan (YoY +15%) [4][6]. Outbound Travel Business - The company leads the industry in the recovery of outbound travel, with hotel and flight bookings returning to 90%-100% of pre-pandemic levels. The company reported over 100% year-on-year growth in outbound flight and hotel bookings for Q1 2024, with prices normalizing to 115% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - The company expects outbound travel to continue leading the market by 20-30 percentage points, with estimates suggesting that by the end of 2024, outbound travel from China could recover to 80% of 2019 levels [4][6]. Domestic Business - Domestic hotel and flight bookings grew by 20%-30% year-on-year in Q1 2024, driven by changing consumer preferences for personalized and high-quality travel experiences. The company anticipates double-digit growth in domestic travel bookings for Q2 2024 [5][6]. Global OTA Business - The Trip.com platform saw revenue growth of approximately 80% year-on-year in Q1 2024, contributing to 10% of the group's total revenue. The inbound travel segment experienced a remarkable 400% year-on-year increase in bookings, supported by visa-free policies for citizens from over 15 countries [6][7]. - The mobile booking ratio for Trip.com reached 65%, with major Asian markets exceeding 75%, indicating a strong focus on mobile platform investments [6][7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, the recovery of outbound travel, and the expansion of its global OTA business. The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 53.2 billion, 61.4 billion, and 67.7 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 14.8 billion, 17.5 billion, and 20 billion yuan [6][7]. - The target market capitalization for 2024 is set at 328.6 billion yuan, with a target price of 518 HKD, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 519 (USD 67) [5][3][1] Core Insights - The company reported a 29% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, slightly exceeding market expectations, with adjusted net profit reaching RMB 4.1 billion, surpassing market expectations by 45% [2][1] - The adjusted profit margin improved by 12 percentage points to 34% year-on-year, benefiting from strong revenue growth and operational efficiency [2][1] - Domestic hotel and flight bookings grew over 20% year-on-year, while outbound bookings more than doubled [2][1] - The international OTA business saw approximately 80% year-on-year revenue growth, contributing about 10% to total revenue [2][1] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was RMB 11.9 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 14.8 billion, up 13% from previous estimates, with a profit margin of 28.1% [3][2] - The company expects 2024 revenue to remain unchanged at RMB 52.7 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [3][2] Market Trends - The company is focusing on refined user engagement strategies, including tailored packages for younger users and senior citizens [2][1] - Outbound travel is expected to recover faster than the industry average, with predictions indicating a recovery to 80% of 2019 levels by the end of 2024 [2][1] - The international business's revenue potential is anticipated to grow through cross-selling opportunities and the release of inbound travel potential [2][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group [2][3]. Core Views - The company exceeded expectations in Q1 2024, benefiting from improvements in the OTA industry landscape and strong growth in outbound and overseas travel, with profit margins still on an upward trajectory [2]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been raised to RMB 14.299 billion, RMB 17.075 billion, and RMB 19.580 billion, reflecting increases of +14.16%, +16.92%, and +19.40% respectively [2]. - The target market capitalization has been adjusted to RMB 328.9 billion, corresponding to a target price of HKD 528 based on a 23x PE valuation for 2024 [2]. Financial Summary - Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 11.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of +29.42%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.312 billion, up +27.76% [2]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 4.055 billion, showing a significant increase of +96.37%, and adjusted EBITDA was RMB 3.974 billion, up +40.92% with an EBITDA margin of 33.3%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points [2]. - The revenue growth slightly exceeded guidance (+29.42% vs. expected 24-29%), while adjusted EBITDA significantly surpassed expectations (RMB 3.974 billion vs. expected RMB 3.2-3.4 billion) [2]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company demonstrated strong performance in group travel, with a growth rate of +129%, driven primarily by outbound travel demand, as international flights have recovered to 70% of pre-pandemic levels [2]. - Ctrip's overseas segment, Trip.com, experienced rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 80% in Q1 2024, contributing to 10% of total revenue [2]. - The report highlights Ctrip's brand strength and product supply advantages, particularly in high-tier cities, where travel consumption remains resilient despite concerns over growth rates from a high base [2].