硬·AI 作者 | 董 静 编辑 | 硬 AI 在AI浪潮席卷全球的当下，那些曾被忽视的传统硬件公司，正以惊人的涨幅成为美股市场最闪耀的明星， 但这究竟是AI基础设施建设的"外溢效应"的真实体现，还是泡沫破灭前的最后狂欢？ 在AI热潮推动下，美股市场最亮眼的明星并非前沿科技公司，而是一批传统技术企业。 希捷科技今年飙升 156%成为标普500指数最佳表现股票，竞争对手西部数据以137%涨幅排名第三，美光科技则凭借93%涨 幅位列第五。 据报道，这些成立于Facebook创始人Mark Zuckerberg和OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman出生前的"无 聊"公司，正受益于AI基础设施建设的巨额投资。大型科技公司每年在半导体、网络设备和数据中心电力 供应方面投入数百亿美元，为训练大语言模型和运行AI工作负载提供支撑。 然而，华尔街对这一现象存在分歧。 多头认为这展现了AI计算需求对广泛业务领域的带动效应，空头则警 告这是股市泡沫的最新迹象 。Jonestrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke表示： 今年，传统硬件公司股价飙升，希捷科技涨156%领涨标普500，西部数据涨137%排第三 ...

Core Viewpoint - Traditional hardware companies have seen significant stock price increases in 2023, driven by massive investments in AI infrastructure from large tech firms, raising questions about whether this reflects genuine demand or a market bubble [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Seagate Technology's stock surged by 156%, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, while Western Digital and Micron Technology saw increases of 137% and 93%, respectively [1][3]. - These companies, often overlooked, are now benefiting from the AI infrastructure investments that large tech companies are making, amounting to hundreds of billions annually [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - There is a divide on Wall Street regarding this trend; bulls see it as a sign of AI's broad impact on various sectors, while bears warn it may indicate a stock market bubble [3][6]. - Analysts have noted that the rapid price increases of these stocks exceed expectations, with Seagate trading over 20% above its average target price [6][7]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite the stock price surges, the valuations of Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron remain relatively reasonable, with price-to-earnings ratios around 10 times, compared to the S&P 500's expected ratio of 23 times [4][5]. - Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Miller raised Seagate's target price to $250, indicating a potential upside of over 13% from its recent closing price [5]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - The AI boom is also positively impacting other traditional sectors, with companies like Vistra Corp and Broadcom seeing substantial stock price increases [8]. - Oracle's stock surged by 36% after a strong earnings report, highlighting the growing demand for cloud computing services [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that traditional hardware companies are experiencing significant stock price increases due to the AI infrastructure investment wave, raising questions about whether this is a genuine market trend or a bubble before a potential crash [1][2]. - Seagate Technology has surged by 156% this year, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, while Western Digital and Micron Technology have also seen substantial gains of 137% and 93%, respectively [1][2]. - Major tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars annually in semiconductors, networking equipment, and data center power supplies to support AI workloads, benefiting traditional storage manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2 - Despite the stock price surges, the valuations of Seagate, Western Digital, and Micron remain relatively reasonable, with price-to-earnings ratios around 10 times, compared to the S&P 500's expected P/E ratio of 23 times [2]. - Benchmark Co. analyst Mark Miller raised Seagate's target price to $250, indicating a potential upside of over 13% from its recent closing price, citing strong product demand as a key factor [3]. - Concerns about a market bubble are growing, as the rapid stock price increases for these companies exceed analyst expectations, with Seagate trading over 20% above the average target price [4]. Group 3 - The AI hype is also driving stock price increases in other traditional sectors, such as Vistra Corp, which has risen by 53% this year, and Broadcom, which has reached a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion [4]. - Oracle has become the tenth largest company in the S&P 500 due to demand for cloud computing services, with a single-day stock price surge of 36% following its earnings report [5]. - There are warnings that the current AI excitement may be overhyped, similar to the internet bubble, with actual application developments expected to take longer than anticipated [5].

公告称，集团电子设备及半导体业务产生的收入上年同期的3020万元增加约140.2%至期内的7250万 元。电子设备及半导体业务产生的收入增加主要由于高性能内存及硬盘驱动器销售增长所致。 云游控股(00484)发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩，收入7800.2万元(人民币，下同)，同比 增加108.61%;股东应占亏损2093.8万元，同比扩大458.64%;每股基本亏损0.14元。 ...

公告称，集团电子设备及半导体业务产生的收入上年同期的3020万元增加约140.2%至期内的7250万 元。电子设备及半导体业务产生的收入增加主要由于高性能内存及硬盘驱动器销售增长所致。 智通财经APP讯，云游控股(00484)发布截至2025年6月30日止六个月的中期业绩，收入7800.2万元(人民 币，下同)，同比增加108.61%;股东应占亏损2093.8万元，同比扩大458.64%;每股基本亏损0.14元。 ...

Core Insights - Ruthenium, a rare metal, has become one of the best-performing commodities this year, with prices nearly doubling to $800 per ounce, matching 2021 peaks and nearing the historical high of $870 from 18 years ago [1][3] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The significant price increase of ruthenium is primarily driven by the AI revolution, particularly its application in hard disk drives [3] - Analysts predict that the growing demand for data storage due to AI proliferation will sustain the need for ruthenium, as it offers a cost-effective solution for high-density data storage [3][4] - The growth of cloud computing is expected to boost hard disk sales by 16% this year, further increasing ruthenium consumption [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Ruthenium supply is extremely limited, with only 30 tons produced last year, and it is not traded on any exchanges [4] - Traders are currently competing to acquire available ruthenium supplies, leading to procurement difficulties for major buyers [4] - Due to previous years of low prices resulting in insufficient investment, ruthenium production is expected to decline further this year, potentially leading to a supply deficit in the market next year [4]

Core Insights - The trade volume through the Friendship Pass port from January to May reached 2.604 million tons, valued at 237.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.7% and 27.7% respectively, indicating a robust growth in import and export activities [1] - The port serves as a vital land passage between China and ASEAN, with a significant increase in cross-border vehicles transporting exported machinery and imported fruits [1] Trade Performance - Exports through the Friendship Pass port totaled 1.926 million tons, valued at 171.91 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.1% and 38.2% year-on-year [1] - Major exported goods include electromechanical products worth 136.5 billion yuan, which saw a 56% increase, accounting for 79.4% of total exports [1] - Imports reached 678,000 tons, valued at 65.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.4% and 6.3% respectively [1] - Key imported items include mobile display screens and microprocessor components, with fruits imported valued at 4.86 billion yuan, of which durian accounted for 3.38 billion yuan [1] Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN countries amounted to 235.11 billion yuan, growing by 28%, constituting 99.1% of the total trade value through the port [2] - Stable growth in trade with major partners such as Vietnam and Thailand has been observed [2] Efficiency Improvements - The increase in trade volume is attributed to enhanced customs clearance efficiency, with the implementation of smart regulatory measures and optimization of the "Smart Logistics Control Platform" [2] - The customs authority has improved the efficiency of the entire clearance process by 45% and inspection platform turnover by 35% [2] - The peak season for imported fruits from Southeast Asia has heightened the demand for timely customs clearance, with companies utilizing mobile apps for real-time tracking of vehicle and cargo status [2] Vehicle Traffic - From January to May, the number of vehicles passing through the Friendship Pass port reached 356,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [3] - The daily traffic through the Friendship Pass channel has repeatedly broken historical records in May [3]

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's economic recovery faces unexpected disruptions, with GDP growth forecasted to slow down to 1.8% in 2025, down from previous expectations of 2.5% for 2024, due to multiple adverse factors impacting the economic outlook [2][9]. Macroeconomic Overview - Thailand's real GDP is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, up from 2.0% in 2023, driven by a 5.4% increase in goods exports, a 26.3% rise in international tourist arrivals, and a 4.4% growth in private consumption [8][9]. - The IMF has revised Thailand's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.8%, highlighting the challenges posed by external factors such as U.S. tariffs and domestic political instability [9][10]. Policy Regulation - The Thai government has introduced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 500 billion THB (approximately 15 billion USD) to counteract slowing growth, focusing on consumption stimulation and investment [3][21]. - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy interest rate from 2.25% to 1.75% to enhance market liquidity, with additional measures including debt relief programs and digital wallet initiatives aimed at supporting indebted households [3][21]. Trade Dynamics - U.S. tariff policies present uncertainties for Thailand's exports, with a trade surplus of 35.4 billion USD expected in 2024, and a corresponding tariff rate of 36% [4][30]. - In Q1 2025, Thailand's exports grew by 15.2%, supported by strong demand from the U.S. and China, but ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. remain stalled, posing risks to future trade performance [4][31]. Tourism Industry - The tourism sector is under scrutiny due to security incidents and the impact of the March earthquake, with international tourist arrivals increasing by only 1.9% in Q1 2025 [5][37]. - High-spending tourists from Western countries are partially offsetting the decline in Chinese visitors, but the overall recovery in tourism is expected to be slower than anticipated [5][38]. Capital Markets - The Thai stock market (SET Index) has fallen by 14.5% year-to-date, reaching a five-year low, driven by global market volatility and domestic economic challenges [6][46]. - Recommendations for investment strategies include diversifying into high-dividend blue-chip stocks, tourism-related sectors, and utilities, as well as taking advantage of potential stock buyback programs [6][47].

Core Viewpoint - Thailand, despite being questioned about its economic appeal, remains a preferred destination for Chinese companies looking to expand overseas due to its resilient consumer market, strategic location, and commitment to industrial upgrading [1][24]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Relations - Thailand's GDP reached approximately $526.8 billion in 2024, positioning it as the second-largest economy in ASEAN, with a growth rate of 2.5% [22]. - In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Thailand amounted to $133.98 billion, maintaining Thailand's status as China's largest trading partner [18]. - Chinese direct investment in Thailand has seen a decline, with Singapore surpassing China as the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024 [18][20]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Thailand's consumer market is the third largest in ASEAN, with a total consumption of $302.6 billion in 2023, showing a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% over the past nine years [25]. - The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) has attracted significant FDI, with $12.7 billion in 2023, representing 80% of the total foreign investment in Thailand [29]. - Thailand's strategic location and developed logistics infrastructure make it a key trade hub in Southeast Asia, facilitating access to neighboring markets [26][27]. Group 3: Industry and Market Trends - Thailand is recognized as the largest automotive manufacturing center in Southeast Asia, producing over 1.8 million vehicles annually, which accounts for nearly 50% of the region's output [16]. - The electronics manufacturing sector in Thailand is robust, with the country being the second-largest producer of hard disk drives globally [16]. - The Thai e-commerce market is projected to reach $32.7 billion by 2024, with social commerce reshaping consumer shopping preferences [39]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Thailand faces demographic challenges, with an aging population and declining birth rates, which may impact its labor market and economic growth potential [23]. - Despite these challenges, Thailand's commitment to industrial transformation and digital economy initiatives presents new opportunities for investment and collaboration [42].