Core Insights - Xiaomi's founder and CEO Lei Jun highlighted significant improvements in the design, craftsmanship, and feel of the new K90 series, suggesting it is increasingly approaching flagship quality [1][3] Product Launch - The REDMI K90 series was officially launched on October 23, featuring two models: REDMI K90 Pro Max and REDMI K90 [3] - The starting price for K90 Pro Max is 3999 yuan, while K90 starts at 2599 yuan [3] Design and Technology - The K90 model's back is crafted using a process similar to that of the iPhone 17, utilizing cold-etched glass technology [3] - Cold-etched glass involves reducing the thickness of a flat glass piece through precision machining to create a curved surface [3]

Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% in early trading, reaching a low of 43.88 HKD, marking the lowest point since April of this year [2] - As of the latest update, the stock is down 3.22%, trading at 44.44 HKD, with a trading volume of 7.075 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see significant growth in adjusted net profit and revenue in Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in its smartphone and automotive segments, despite some challenges in the Chinese market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue is projected to increase by 21.46% year-on-year to 112.36 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 68.88% to 10.56 billion yuan, largely due to profitability in automotive and innovative businesses [1]. - Smartphone revenue is anticipated to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to 45.80 billion yuan, with a slight decrease in average selling price (ASP) to 1,065 yuan [1]. - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to 27.41 billion yuan, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [2]. - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9% year-on-year to 9.23 billion yuan, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75% [2]. - Automotive deliveries are forecasted to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of 29.43 billion yuan, with the automotive business likely achieving its first quarterly profit of 707 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global smartphone shipment is expected to maintain a top-three position, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase to 43.50 million units, although the Chinese market is projected to see a slight decline of 1.7% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end models like the Xiaomi 17 series, which has shown strong initial sales performance [1]. - The automotive segment is anticipated to benefit from increased deliveries and the release of new models, contributing to sustained growth in both delivery volume and profitability [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 5.2% and 3.6% to 43.76 billion yuan and 64.02 billion yuan, respectively, due to rising storage costs [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0x for 2025 and 16.9x for 2026 based on adjusted net profit [2]. - The target price has been lowered by 15% to 59.5 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 29.6% based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [2].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock experienced a significant decline, reaching a new low since April 2023, primarily due to expectations of lower-than-expected earnings in the upcoming Q3 2025 report [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Citigroup forecasts that Xiaomi's adjusted net profit will reach 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [1] - The decline in smartphone gross margins and IoT revenue is attributed to unfavorable regional mix and rising memory prices, while internet and electric vehicle businesses are expected to meet projections [1] Business Segment Analysis - Huatai Securities anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive business may achieve profitability in Q3 [1] - Despite challenges in the smartphone sector due to rising storage costs, the company is maintaining a high-end strategy, which is expected to mitigate some industry pressures, with a projected gross margin of around 11% for the second half of the year [1] - The IoT business is expected to maintain strong gross margins, even with the impact of reduced government subsidies on revenue growth, as there were no promotional events in Q3 [1] - The internet business continues to show steady performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock has experienced a decline, reaching a new low since April 2023, amid expectations of slightly lower-than-expected Q3 2025 earnings due to smartphone gross margin and IoT revenue underperformance [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Citigroup forecasts Xiaomi's adjusted net profit to reach 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [1] - The decline in smartphone gross margin is attributed to unfavorable regional mix and rising memory prices, while IoT revenue is impacted by the weakening effect of Chinese subsidies [1] Business Segment Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive business may achieve profitability in Q3 [1] - Despite the backdrop of rising storage prices, Xiaomi's strategy to focus on high-end smartphones is expected to mitigate some industry challenges, maintaining a gross margin of around 11% in the second half of the year [1] - The IoT business is projected to sustain strong gross margins in Q3, despite the impact of reduced national subsidies on revenue growth [1] - The internet business continues to show steady performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered Xiaomi Group's adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 5.2% and 3.6% to CNY 43.757 billion and CNY 64.016 billion respectively, due to cost pressures from rising storage prices [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - CICC predicts a 68.88% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, reaching CNY 10.557 billion, with revenue expected to grow by 21.46% to CNY 112.357 billion [2] - The target price for Xiaomi has been reduced by 15% to HKD 59.5, reflecting a valuation of 35.3 times and 24.1 times adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 29.6% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Performance - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 43.5 million units in Q3 2025, with a slight decline in the Chinese market by 1.7% to 10 million units [2] - The average selling price (ASP) is anticipated to slightly decrease to CNY 1,065 due to an increase in overseas market share, while smartphone revenue is projected to decline by 3.49% to CNY 45.795 billion [2] Group 3: IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to CNY 27.407 billion in Q3 2025, with an improvement in gross margin to 23.5% [3] - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year to CNY 9.225 billion, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75.0% [3] Group 4: Automotive Business - The automotive business is expected to deliver 109,000 units in Q3 2025, generating revenue of CNY 29.430 billion, with the first quarterly profit anticipated at CNY 0.707 billion [3] - The company is optimistic about the long-term value of its "car-home" ecosystem, expecting continued growth in automotive deliveries and profit acceleration [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered Xiaomi Group-W's (01810) adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 5.2% and 3.6% to CNY 43.757 billion and CNY 64.016 billion respectively, due to cost pressures from rising storage prices [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - CICC predicts a 68.88% year-on-year growth in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 [2] - Expected revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to increase by 21.46% to CNY 112.357 billion, with adjusted net profit anticipated to reach CNY 10.557 billion [2] - The target price has been reduced by 15.0% to HKD 59.5, reflecting a valuation of 35.3 times and 24.1 times adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 respectively, indicating a potential upside of 29.6% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year to 43.5 million units in Q3 2025, with a slight decline in the Chinese market [2] - The average selling price (ASP) is projected to decrease slightly to CNY 1,065 due to an increase in overseas market share [2] - Smartphone revenue is expected to decline by 3.49% year-on-year to CNY 45.795 billion, with a forecasted gross margin decrease of 0.4 percentage points to 11.1% [2] Group 3: IoT and Internet Services - IoT revenue is expected to grow by 5% year-on-year to CNY 27.407 billion, with an improved gross margin of 23.5% [3] - Internet services revenue is projected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year to CNY 9.225 billion, maintaining a healthy gross margin of 75.0% [3] Group 4: Automotive Business - Q3 2025 automotive deliveries are expected to reach 109,000 units, generating revenue of CNY 29.430 billion [4] - The automotive business is anticipated to achieve its first quarterly profit of CNY 0.707 billion, driven by increased deliveries and ASP [4] - The long-term value of Xiaomi's "car-home" ecosystem is viewed positively, with expectations for continued growth in automotive deliveries and profit acceleration [4]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices opened high and continued to rise, with the Nasdaq up over 1%, the Dow Jones up 0.85%, and the S&P 500 up nearly 0.8%, all reaching historical highs during the session [1] - Following the release of the U.S. CPI data for September, which was below expectations, the dollar index fell sharply while gold prices surged approximately $30, narrowing its decline to 0.15%, currently reported at $4120 per ounce [2] Oil and Bond Markets - International oil prices retracted their gains, with both WTI and Brent crude futures remaining nearly flat after previously rising over 1% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields decreased, with the 2-year yield dropping over 3 basis points to 3.453% and the 10-year yield falling over 2 basis points to 3.985% [4] Technology and Chinese Stocks - Most of the major U.S. tech stocks saw gains, with Google rising over 2% and Nvidia up 1.4%, while Tesla fell over 2% [4] - Chinese stocks continued their recent upward trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up nearly 0.9% and the FTSE China A50 futures rising over 0.3%. However, individual stock performance varied, with Alibaba up over 2% and Xiaomi down over 2% [4][6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a rebound, with Bitcoin returning to the $110,000 mark and Ethereum surpassing $3900. Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 positions were liquidated across the market [7][8] Economic Outlook - A prominent economist predicts that the U.S. may face a scenario of simultaneous financial crisis and inflation in the coming years, with significant risks already evident [10] - Concerns are raised about the weakening dominance of the dollar, which could lead to instability if countries attempt to reduce their reliance on it [11] - The combination of fiscal and labor market policies in the U.S. may create a highly expansionary macro environment, significantly increasing inflation risks [12]

Market Performance - On October 24, US stock indices opened higher, with the Nasdaq rising over 1%, the Dow Jones up 0.85%, and the S&P 500 increasing nearly 0.8%, all reaching historical highs [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose nearly 0.9%, while the FTSE China A50 futures increased over 0.3%, indicating a continuation of the recent upward trend in Chinese concept stocks [4] Economic Indicators - The US CPI for September was lower than expected, with core prices rising 0.23%, leading to a year-on-year core CPI of 3.0%. This has led to market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [2] - Following the CPI release, the US dollar index fell sharply, while gold prices surged approximately $30, narrowing the decline to 0.15%, currently reported at $4120 per ounce [2] Commodity and Bond Markets - International oil prices retracted gains, with both WTI and Brent crude oil futures remaining flat after previously rising over 1% [4] - US Treasury yields decreased, with the 2-year yield dropping over 3 basis points to 3.453% and the 10-year yield falling over 2 basis points to 3.985% [4] Chinese Concept Stocks - Major Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba rising over 2%, while Xiaomi Group fell over 2%. Other notable movements included Baidu, JD.com, and Meituan showing positive gains [4][6] - Emerging Chinese stocks like Yunmi Technology surged over 20%, while other stocks like Lexin and Niu Technologies also saw significant increases [6][7] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a rebound, with Bitcoin returning to the $110,000 mark and Ethereum surpassing $3,900. Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 liquidations occurred across the market [7][8] Economic Outlook - A prominent economist predicts that the US may face a scenario of simultaneous financial crisis and inflation in the coming years, with significant risks already evident [10] - Concerns were raised about the weakening dominance of the US dollar, which could lead to instability if countries attempt to reduce their reliance on it [11] - The combination of fiscal policies and labor market restrictions in the US may create a highly expansionary macro environment, significantly increasing inflation risks [12]

Group 1 - Foreign institutions are collectively optimistic about the Chinese stock market, with QFII actively increasing positions in the third quarter [1][8] - Major foreign investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, have expressed positive outlooks for the Chinese market, indicating a shift towards a "slow bull" market [8][9] - Goldman Sachs predicts that major stock indices will rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a 5% to 10% upward adjustment in valuations [9] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index has shown strong performance, with a current increase of 1.5% [2] - Leading Chinese tech stocks such as Meituan, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Pinduoduo, and JD have all experienced significant gains, with Meituan ADR rising over 4% [4][5] - Morgan Stanley suggests that global investors will increasingly allocate assets to Chinese stocks, particularly in high-tech sectors like AI, automation, and biotechnology [9]