丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 聚焦端侧 AI，AI 硬件或成 AI 落地新范式 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 6 日至 9 日，2026 年国际消费电子展（International Consumer Electronics Show，CES 2026）在美国拉斯维加斯举行。与此同时，1 月 8 日至 11 日，阿里云通义智能硬件展在深圳 举行。此次 CES 大会及阿里云通义智能硬件展均展现了当前 AI 在端侧的落地进展。我们认为 随着 AI 大模型的持续迭代，AI 落地或成为人工智能产业下一阶段的核心，而端侧 AI 作为重要 的流量入口，有望受益于模型性能提升带动的渗透率提升。建议关注端侧 AI 全产业链，重点关 注 AI 端侧模型及应用厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title2] 聚焦端侧 AI，AI 硬件或成 AI 落地新范式 [Table_Summary2 ...

Group 1 - ByteDance's "Doubao" AI glasses are set to enter the shipping phase, with a starting price expected to be under 2000 yuan and weighing less than 50 grams [1] - The no-screen version of the AI glasses is planned for release in Q1 2024, while the version with a display is expected in Q4 2024 [1] - The product is a collaboration between ByteDance and Longqi Technology, with clear division of responsibilities for UI and app development [1] Group 2 - The AI glasses are considered the next key terminal after smartphones, with major internet companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Baidu also developing similar products [5] - The global smart glasses market saw a 110% year-on-year increase in shipments in the first half of 2025, with AI glasses accounting for 78% of total shipments [6] - The AI glasses market is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, indicating significant growth potential [6]

Core Insights - The year 2025 has been pivotal for the digital 3C industry, marked by significant advancements in AI technology, policy support, and market dynamics, setting the stage for future developments in 2026 [1][15] Group 1: AI Developments - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 on January 20, 2025, showcased its competitive capabilities against top closed-source models with a training cost of approximately $6 million, challenging Silicon Valley's computational dominance [1][16] - DeepSeek's V3.2-Exp, released in September, introduced a sparse attention mechanism that halved API prices, while the December V3.2 version integrated logical reasoning with agent tool usage, achieving gold medal performances in international competitions [2][16] - DeepSeek's contributions to the 3C industry include promoting "open-source equity," enabling low-cost smart experiences on budget devices through cloud APIs, and leading a global shift towards efficiency in AI [2][16] Group 2: Policy Impact on Market - 2025 is defined as the "Year of National Subsidies" for the 3C market, with the introduction of a policy on January 8 that included subsidies of up to 500 yuan for mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches, significantly boosting daily active users on e-commerce platforms [3][18] - The subsidy policy expanded in the second half of the year, with 14 provinces increasing the maximum subsidy to 700 yuan, resulting in a total retail sales increase of over 120 billion yuan [3][18] - The continuation of the subsidy policy into 2026 is expected to further include emerging categories like smart glasses, enhancing consumer access to mid-to-high-end products and shifting competition from parameter-based pricing to value-for-money battles [5][18] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The "Romashi incident" in June 2025 involved the recall of nearly 500,000 defective power banks due to safety concerns, leading to significant regulatory responses and the introduction of stricter safety standards in the power bank industry [19][21] - Following the incident, new regulations mandated that all power banks must carry a 3C certification, marking a shift away from low-cost models and ensuring consumer safety [21][22] Group 4: Growth of AI Glasses - 2025 marked a breakthrough year for the AI glasses industry, driven by policy support and market demand, with global shipments expected to reach 12.05 million units and the Chinese market alone surpassing 2.75 million units, reflecting a 107% year-on-year increase [8][22] - The emergence of numerous brands, including major players like Huawei and Xiaomi, indicates a competitive landscape with nearly 70 companies entering the market [10][24] Group 5: AI Assistant Developments - The launch of the "Doubao Phone" by ByteDance and ZTE on December 1, 2025, introduced an AI assistant capable of executing complex tasks across applications, marking a significant advancement in mobile technology [10][24] - The introduction of the AI assistant sparked a debate over app permissions and user data security, highlighting the tension between innovation and established app ecosystems [12][27]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Doubao and Nubia to develop the AI phone Nubia M153 has generated significant market interest, leading to a surge in secondary market prices due to limited availability of the device [3][6]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - The Nubia M153, equipped with Doubao's mobile assistant technology, was released in a limited quantity aimed at developers and tech enthusiasts, with an initial price of 3499 yuan and a stock of 30,000 units, which quickly sold out [6]. - Following the expiration of the official purchase eligibility (F code) on December 7, 2023, demand shifted entirely to the second-hand market, causing prices on platforms like Xianyu to rise significantly, with listings ranging from 3999 to 4999 yuan, and some reaching as high as 36,000 yuan [3][6]. Group 2: Secondary Market Dynamics - The scarcity of the Nubia M153 has led to a thriving secondary market, where the device's F code has become a sought-after item, previously selling for 500 to 1000 yuan but now largely unavailable [3]. - The emergence of short-term rental services for the Nubia M153, with rental prices between 50 to 79 yuan, indicates a growing interest in the device despite its limited availability [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes increasing the allocation ratio to the computer sector from a medium-term perspective, especially as the market shifts focus towards annual report performance expectations and cross-year opportunities [1][2] - It is suggested to avoid high-valuation stocks with uncertain future performance and instead increase investment in leading companies that are expected to benefit from policy dividends and have supportive valuations [1][2] Group 2 - The launch of the Doubao AI phone marks the beginning of a significant transformation in the AI era, with ByteDance collaborating with ZTE to release a technology preview that redefines human-computer interaction [2] - The Doubao AI phone is expected to have a profound impact on the mobile internet landscape due to its super entry point attribute, and the upcoming 2025 Original Power Conference on December 18 may unveil a series of product updates [2] - The continuous iteration of AI large models is driving a deep disruption in the IT industry, indicating a major shift in the industry landscape and potential significant investment opportunities [2]

Core Insights - ZTE Corporation has partnered with ByteDance's AI model "Doubao" to launch the "Doubao Phone," which automates daily app operations, leading to significant consumer interest and rapid sales [1][3] - The Doubao Phone sold out quickly at a price of 3499 yuan, with resale prices reaching between 6000 yuan and 12,900 yuan, indicating high consumer demand [1] - Zhou Hongyi, founder of 360, predicts that AI assistants like Doubao will disrupt traditional internet business models by allowing users to bypass multiple apps for tasks like shopping and banking [1][3] Industry Impact - Zhou Hongyi believes that Doubao creates a cross-platform channel that undermines the traditional app ecosystem, potentially collapsing the business models of major internet companies that rely on user engagement and advertising [3] - Major tech companies may respond with defensive strategies, such as altering app structures or forming alliances to limit AI's access to their platforms [3] - The competition for "mobile desktop control" is expected to intensify, with smartphone manufacturers likely to develop their own AI assistants to maintain control [3][4] Technological Challenges - The Doubao Phone Assistant aims to provide a more advanced AI capability than existing assistants like Siri, but faces significant challenges in gaining cooperation from third-party app developers [6] - Current regulations prohibit third-party apps from allowing external applications to access their data, complicating the implementation of cross-app automation [6][7] - Initial user feedback indicated issues with the Doubao Phone Assistant, particularly with app stability, prompting the need for adjustments in its operational capabilities [6][7] Market Reactions - The launch of the Doubao Phone is seen as an early exploration in the AI assistant space, with other manufacturers also developing similar technologies [7][8] - Companies like Honor and Vivo have previously showcased their own AI capabilities, indicating a growing trend in the industry towards AI-driven mobile operations [7][8] - Honor's AI team expressed excitement about the Doubao Phone's entry into the market, suggesting that increased competition will benefit consumers [8]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs anticipates more AI developments in the upcoming quarters, which will be integrated into Xiaomi Group's ecosystem and its AIoT devices, driving differentiated growth and supporting Xiaomi's "people, vehicles, and home" upgrade strategy [1] - ByteDance has launched a technical preview of the Doubao mobile assistant, designed for smartphone brands, integrating a large language model into the operating system for visual content interpretation and multi-step tasks [1] - Xiaomi is actively exploring both edge and cloud-based large language models to meet diverse needs for flexibility and convenience, having released several specialized large language models covering various domains [1] Group 1: Xiaomi Developments - Xiaomi is expected to benefit from AI advancements that will enhance its ecosystem and AIoT device capabilities, with a target price set at 53.5 HKD [1] - The company has introduced multiple specialized large language models, including the newly launched MiMo-Embodied model on November 21 [1] Group 2: ByteDance Initiatives - ByteDance's Doubao mobile assistant is embedded in the new Nubia M153 smartphone, indicating a strategic expansion into mobile internet infrastructure and smartphone ecosystems [1] - The Doubao mobile keyboard was previously launched on iOS and Android platforms, showcasing ByteDance's commitment to enhancing mobile user experience [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates more AI developments in the coming quarters, which will be integrated into Xiaomi's ecosystem and its AIoT devices, driving differentiated growth and supporting Xiaomi's "people, vehicles, and home" upgrade strategy. The firm has assigned a "buy" rating to Xiaomi with a target price of HKD 53.5 [1] Group 1: Xiaomi's AI Strategy - Xiaomi is actively exploring both edge and cloud-based large language models to meet diverse needs for flexibility and convenience across different scenarios [1] - The company has launched several specialized large language models covering visual, audio, speech, and localized intelligent assistants [1] - On November 21, Xiaomi introduced the MiMo-Embodied model, which is a cross-embodiment foundational model [1] Group 2: ByteDance's Technological Advancements - On December 1, ByteDance released a technical preview of the Doubao mobile assistant, designed specifically for smartphone brands, integrating a large language model into the operating system for visual content interpretation and multi-step tasks [1] - The Doubao mobile keyboard was launched on iOS and Android platforms in late November, indicating ByteDance's strategic expansion into mobile internet infrastructure and smartphone ecosystems [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The integration of AI technologies in Xiaomi's ecosystem is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the AIoT market, potentially leading to increased market share and revenue growth [1] - The advancements by ByteDance in mobile technology may disrupt existing smartphone ecosystems, presenting both opportunities and challenges for competitors in the industry [1]

Core Insights - ByteDance's "Doubao Assistant" phone has faced user issues shortly after launch, particularly with WeChat login problems [1] - The phone is a collaboration with ZTE, utilizing the nubia M153 engineering prototype, and is priced at 3499 yuan [1] - Despite initial problems, the phone sold out within a day, with resale prices on platforms like Xianyu increasing by 700 to 1500 yuan [1] Group 1 - ByteDance aims to capture the AI mobile operating system market through the Doubao Assistant, rather than developing its own hardware [1] - The collaboration with a smartphone manufacturer raises concerns over control and market positioning, as manufacturers may resist ceding AI OS entry points [1] - The Doubao Assistant's ability to simulate user interactions with third-party apps like Taobao and JD.com could disrupt existing commercial models, leading to potential pushback from these platforms [1] Group 2 - The introduction of the Doubao Assistant may inspire other internet companies to explore AI operating systems further, despite the challenges it faces [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the launch of new AI-powered features in domestic smartphones, particularly focusing on the advancements made by Shanghai-based AI company Jieyue Xingchen and its collaboration with Doubao [1] Group 1: AI Technology Developments - Jieyue Xingchen has open-sourced the GELab-Zero suite, a GUI Agent technology similar to Doubao's mobile assistant, along with a 4B GUI Agent model and complete infrastructure for one-click deployment [1] - The new model has achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across multiple GUI benchmarks on both mobile and computer platforms [1] Group 2: Product Launches and Collaborations - Doubao released a technical preview of its "Doubao Mobile Assistant," which has system-level operational capabilities, allowing it to recognize UI elements on mobile screens and perform tasks like price comparison for food delivery and searching for travel guides [1] - Doubao has partnered with ZTE to launch a smartphone model equipped with this technology, leading to a significant increase in ZTE's stock price, which hit the daily limit [1] Group 3: Broader AI Applications - At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in July, ZTE and Jieyue Xingchen introduced the "Elderly AI Assistant," which can execute tasks such as appointment scheduling and social security payments through voice commands [1]