Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported earnings of $7.7 billion in the first quarter, a decrease of approximately $500 million compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to market forces across its businesses [27] - Cash flow from operations reached $13 billion, the highest among all integrated oil companies, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of cash flow from operations being double that of the next highest IOC [22][24] - The net debt to capital ratio was 7%, leading all other integrated oil companies, and the company distributed $9.1 billion to shareholders, including $4.8 billion in share buybacks [14][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the upstream segment, over 60% of production volume is expected to come from advantaged assets in the Permian, Guyana, and LNG by 2030, contributing to an increase in upstream profitability from $10 to $13 per barrel [15] - The company's advantaged projects delivered $2.1 billion of earnings in 2024, with expectations of roughly $4 billion per year more from these projects by the end of the decade [16] - The company produced approximately 3.5 million tons of performance chemicals, lubricants, and lower emission fuels in the first quarter, showing growth compared to the same period last year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude prices remained roughly flat, while natural gas prices improved due to stronger global demand driven by LNG exports and colder weather in the U.S. and Europe [25] - Global industry refining margins were lower, particularly in Asia Pacific, but the company's energy products business generated higher sequential margins due to its majority weighting in the North American market [26] - Chemical margins stayed below the ten-year range, but the company's chemicals business performed well due to a focus on high-value chemical products and cost reductions [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on long-term growth by investing in advantaged opportunities across its portfolio [5][6] - The company is executing on 10 key project startups in 2025, including the China Chemical Complex and an advanced recycling unit in Baytown, which are expected to deliver significant earnings [11][19] - The company aims to achieve $18 billion in structural savings by 2030, having already realized $12.7 billion in savings since 2019 [18][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the economic uncertainty due to tariffs and market volatility but emphasized the company's flexibility and strong position to thrive through market cycles [3][4] - The company is built to excel in any market environment, with a focus on proven strategy, superior execution, and cost discipline [36][37] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate market cycles and seize opportunities despite ongoing uncertainties [36][37] Other Important Information - The company has signed six large carbon capture and storage contracts, bringing its total CO2 under contract for CCS with third-party customers to 8.7 million tons per annum [13][14] - The company is committed to maintaining industry-leading financial strength while delivering robust returns to shareholders [14][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the second quarter? - The company expects scheduled maintenance in Qatar and Canada to decrease volumes by about 100,000 oil equivalent barrels per day compared to the first quarter [34] - There will be lower scheduled maintenance in Product Solutions, with production ramping up at the China Chemical Complex throughout the year [35] - Seasonal tax payments of $2.5 to $3 billion are expected in the second quarter, leading to a working capital outflow [36]

Key Takeaways Energy companies are expected to face a harsh reporting period. Earnings for the broader Zacks Oil & Energy sector expected to be down -22.7% YoY. XOM and CVX are both two energy titans on the reporting docket this week. Earnings season continues to move rapidly, with a notably rich reporting docket this week. A few big-tech names and representatives from many sectors have delivered their quarterly prints, with next week just as exciting.Among the bunch this week are two energy titans, Exxon ...

Group 1: Earnings Reports Overview - Chevron Corp and Exxon Mobil Corp are set to report first-quarter earnings, with both companies experiencing significant stock declines this year [1][3] - Chevron's stock is down nearly 20% in the past month and 7.46% year to date, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of $2.18 on revenue of $48.09 billion [1][4] - Exxon Mobil's shares have dropped over 11% this month and 1.58% year to date, with analysts projecting an EPS of $1.70 on revenue of $86.09 billion [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Both Chevron and Exxon Mobil stocks are trading below their eight, 20, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), indicating a strongly bearish trend [1][3] - Chevron's 50-day SMA has crossed below the 200-day SMA, forming a "Death Cross," which further validates the bearish outlook [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Challenges - Both companies are facing earnings pressure due to crude oil price volatility, uncertainties regarding global demand, and challenges from green energy initiatives [4][5] - A notable difference is that Exxon's revenue base is nearly double that of Chevron's for the quarter, providing it with more capacity to absorb macroeconomic pressures [4]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Exxon Mobil (XOM) will report quarterly earnings of $1.72 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 16.5%, with anticipated revenues of $84.49 billion, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 8.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenue' will reach $84.12 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of +4.6% [5]. - 'Revenues- Income from equity affiliates' is projected at $1.17 billion, reflecting a decline of 36.4% from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenue- Specialty Products' is expected to be $7.16 billion, showing a significant increase of +55% year over year [6]. - 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenue- Energy Products' is forecasted to reach $63.39 billion, indicating a slight decline of -1.3% from the prior year [6]. - 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenue- Upstream- Non-U.S.' is estimated at $3.24 billion, down by 8% year over year, while 'Upstream- United States' is expected to rise by 161% to $5.72 billion [7]. - 'Revenues- Sales and other operating revenue- Chemical Products- Non-U.S.' is projected at $3.67 billion, a change of +0.6%, and 'Specialty Products- Non-U.S.' is expected to reach $5.31 billion, reflecting a +68.5% increase [8]. Production Estimates - Analysts project 'Oil-equivalent production per day' to be 4,584.05 KBOE/D, up from 3,784 KBOE/D in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Natural gas production available for sale per day - Worldwide' is expected to reach 8,462.62 Mcf/D, compared to 7,362 Mcf/D a year ago [9]. - 'Net production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, bitumen and synthetic oil per day - Worldwide' is estimated at 3,139.27 thousand barrels, up from 2,557 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [10]. - For the United States, 'Net production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, bitumen and synthetic oil per day' is projected at 1,395.05 thousand barrels, compared to 816 thousand barrels a year ago [11]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Exxon shares have declined by 9%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a minor decrease of 0.2% [12].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report a decline in first-quarter 2025 earnings, with a consensus estimate of $1.72 per share, reflecting a 16.5% decrease from the previous year [1]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $84.5 billion, indicating a 1.7% increase from the year-ago figures [1]. - XOM has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.8% [2]. - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. Upstream Earnings and Market Conditions - XOM anticipates a sequential increase in upstream earnings for the March quarter by up to $800 million, attributed to favorable oil and gas prices [4]. - The average WTI spot prices for January, February, and March 2025 were $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel, respectively, which are significantly above break-even prices in shale plays [4]. Energy Products Business - The Energy Products business unit is expected to see a sequential improvement of $300-$700 million due to changes in industry margins [5]. Stock Performance and Valuation - XOM's stock has decreased by 3.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry decline of 9.1% [8]. - The company's trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.76, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to the industry average of 4.02 [10]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances XOM's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, known for low production costs [12]. - XOM is investing in alternative energy projects, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, which present potential growth opportunities despite requiring substantial capital [14]. Competitor Analysis - Chevron (CVX) is also set to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 2, with an Earnings ESP of -5.51% [15]. - BP has reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate and declining from the previous year's figure [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil has significantly increased shareholder value over the past five years, with potential for continued growth through strategic investments and operational efficiencies [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - ExxonMobil's stock has more than doubled from an initial investment of $10,000 to $24,200, and tripled to nearly $30,600 when dividends are reinvested [3]. - The company saved over $10 billion in costs, grew earnings by over $15 billion, and added over $20 billion in cash flow from operating activities between 2019 and 2024 [5]. Shareholder Returns - ExxonMobil returned nearly $140 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the same period [5]. - The company has increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years, currently yielding 3.6% [7]. Growth Strategy - ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources in a $60 billion all-stock deal in 2023 and aims to reduce its break-even price to enhance profitability [6]. - The company projects an additional $20 billion in earnings and nearly $30 billion in cash flow from operating activities by 2030 [6].

Group 1: ExxonMobil's Low-Carbon Strategy - ExxonMobil is set to surpass European rivals Shell and BP in low-carbon energy investments, indicating a significant shift in the clean energy race among major oil companies [1] - The company plans to invest up to $30 billion in low-emission projects from 2025 to 2030, with approximately 65% of this budget aimed at helping third-party customers reduce emissions [2] - ExxonMobil's Low Carbon Solutions business is focusing on carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and lithium, aligning with its engineering and process expertise [2] Group 2: Competitors' Strategies - Shell and BP are scaling back their clean energy investments, with Shell limiting its capital in low-carbon businesses to below 10% of total capital employed [4] - BP announced an increase in upstream oil and gas investment to $10 billion annually while cutting clean energy spending by over $5 billion [5] - Equinor plans to nearly halve its renewables and low-carbon investments to $5 billion, citing inflation and regulatory uncertainty [5] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - ExxonMobil's clean energy ambitions are heavily reliant on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which provides significant incentives for carbon capture and hydrogen projects [6] - Currently, ExxonMobil allocates 17% of its capital expenditures to low-carbon investments, similar to Shell, while TotalEnergies leads with 29% [7] - As European counterparts retreat from climate-focused investments, ExxonMobil is positioned to take the lead in the next phase of energy evolution [8]

Core Viewpoint - The five major oil companies are facing significant financial challenges due to prolonged low international oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and pressures from energy transition, leading to a cumulative profit decline exceeding $90 billion over three years [1][3]. Financial Performance - The profits of the five major oil companies peaked at approximately $280 billion in 2022 but fell by 23% to $215 billion in 2023, with a further projected decline of 15% to $183 billion in 2024 [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to drop to an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, with predictions of further declines in 2025 as global oil supply increases [3][7]. - In Q1 2025, profits are anticipated to decrease by 18%, with Brent crude prices dipping below $60 per barrel, representing a decline of over 25% compared to the previous year [3]. Dividend and Share Buyback Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the sustainability of high dividends and share buybacks, with warnings that companies like Shell and BP may need to cut dividends if oil prices remain below $60 per barrel [4]. - Shell's share buyback program for Q1 2025 has been reduced by 30%, and BP has suspended its buyback plans for the remainder of 2025 [4]. Credit Rating Risks - Moody's has placed Chevron and TotalEnergies on a "negative watch" list due to concerns that low oil prices may lead to increased debt levels [5]. Company Strategies - In response to financial pressures, companies are implementing cost-cutting measures, restructuring, and transitioning to renewable energy [6]. - ExxonMobil plans to reduce operating costs by 12% by 2025, while TotalEnergies is laying off 5% of its workforce [6]. - Shell aims to increase its renewable energy capacity target from 120 GW to 200 GW by 2030, and BP has partnered with Microsoft to supply 100% renewable energy to its data centers over the next decade [6]. Industry Outlook - The oil industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in the short term, with low oil prices likely becoming the norm and demand growth stagnating [7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude prices may stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024 [7]. - Despite short-term pressures, some analysts remain optimistic about the potential for oil companies to transition into renewable energy and carbon capture sectors, which could provide new growth opportunities [7].

期货研究报告|聚烯烃周报 2025-04-27 埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端 工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 ■ 策略 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 惠州埃克森美孚一期 50 LLDPE 装置、48 万吨/年 PP 装置与 47.5 万吨/年 PP 装置成功投 产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE 供应维持偏高，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil sees carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) as a significant opportunity for profitability while contributing to environmental sustainability, estimating the CCS market could reach $4 trillion by 2050 [1] Group 1: Business Developments - ExxonMobil is positioning itself as a leader in the CCS market, recently signing a deal with Calpine to transport and store up to 2 million tons of carbon dioxide annually from its Bayton Energy Center [3] - The agreement with Calpine is part of a broader strategy to provide low-carbon electricity and steam to industrial facilities, producing approximately 500 megawatts of electricity, enough for 500,000 homes [3] - Exxon has now signed six contracts for carbon dioxide transportation and sequestration, totaling 16 million tons per year, indicating growing confidence from clients across various sectors [5] Group 2: Revenue Potential - The company aims to secure 30 million tons of transportation and storage contracts by 2030, with current contracts already exceeding halfway to this goal [7] - ExxonMobil anticipates that its CCS business could generate over $10 billion in annual contractual revenue within the next five to ten years, providing stable earnings compared to its traditional oil and gas operations [9] - The company plans to invest $30 billion by 2030 in reducing emissions and providing carbon reduction solutions, estimating these initiatives could yield $2 billion in earnings by 2030 [8] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - In 2023, Exxon acquired Denbury Resources for nearly $5 billion, primarily for its extensive carbon dioxide pipeline system, enhancing its CCS capabilities [6] - The integration of Calpine's facility into Exxon's existing carbon dioxide pipeline system, the largest globally, will facilitate the transportation of greenhouse gases to sequestration sites along the U.S. Gulf Coast [4] Group 4: Long-term Investment Appeal - The CCS business is viewed as a long-term growth driver for ExxonMobil, potentially extending the use of fossil fuels while stabilizing earnings volatility [10] - The recent contract with Calpine reinforces the attractiveness of Exxon's CCS business as a lucrative venture, enhancing its long-term investment appeal [10]