摘要 中集安瑞科积极扩张绿色甲醇产能，一期 5 万吨项目稳步推进，二期 20 万吨计划 2027 年投产，并与大唐海南等签署战略合作，拓展绿色认证 及项目建造能力。 公司在氢气和氨业务上与多家钢厂合作，2025 年鞍钢项目全年运营， 凌钢项目投产，带来 14.7 万吨 LNG 和 2 万吨氢（或 6 万吨蓝氨）的额 外销售量。预计 2026 年投产首钢水钢及凌钢二期，新增产能。 燃料电池市场份额提升，获欧洲认证并批量出口。参与大型储氢一体化 项目，水上清洁能源业务新签订单超 100 亿元，预计未来两年收入增量 每年约 10 亿元，利润率有望提升。 绿色甲醇产品按现货价格销售，参考市场价并根据客户需求调整。港口 加注价格在 7,000 元/吨以上。预计绿甲在全球需求增长和生产端布局未 完全释放前，将保持较好溢价水平。 湛江二期项目计划引入风光资源技术，利用一期富余二氧化碳，提高资 源利用效率并降低成本。公司参股上游生物质公司，保障生物质需求稳 定性，生物质采购成本在 600-1,000 元/吨。 Q&A 请介绍一下中集安瑞科近期在氢能和绿色甲醇领域的业务进展。 中集安瑞科在氢能和绿色甲醇领域取得了显著进展。首先 ...

目前，欧盟气候专员强调，暂停对化肥实施CBAM仅是应对农民压力的临时措施，长期实施CBAM的目 标不变。 中化新网讯 近日，全球最大化肥生产商之一雅苒国际首席执行官明确表示，如果欧盟最终决定暂停对 化肥进口征收碳边境税，公司将不得不重新考虑并可能放弃其在美国路易斯安那州规划的低碳氨项目。 据悉，该项目的战略初衷正是为了直接响应并利用欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)所创造的市场环境。 CBAM机制通过对高碳排的进口传统化肥征税，为低碳氨等清洁产品进入欧洲市场提供了关键的价格竞 争力与商业逻辑。雅苒与空气产品公司合作的这一项目，旨在利用美国丰富的天然气资源结合碳捕集与 封存(CCS)技术生产"蓝氨"，并出口至欧洲。该模式被视为连接美国资源优势与欧洲脱碳需求的关键战 略投资，然而欧盟因内部农业压力考虑暂停相关税项，动摇了这一商业模式的根基。雅苒表示，其位于 欧洲的多个低碳项目也将被迫重新评估。 ...

行业分析指出，此次招标通过链接电力、水泥、化工等行业的实际需求，创造了跨部门协同效应，为大 规模氨部署奠定了商业基础。在完成本轮招标后，日本192亿美元的差价合约资金池仍有约65%的额度 待分配。分析预计，随着日本加速低碳氢采购，未来将有更多国际项目获得支持。 这两个项目计划从2030年后启动，每年从美国路易斯安那州进口约77.2万吨蓝氨。项目总计获得总额约 68亿美元的15年期差价合约支持，该资金来源于日本总额192亿美元的氢能价差支持计划。项目将主要 依托美国路易斯安那州的Blue Point设施，日本企业联盟锁定了该设施超过一半的产能。JERA的氢供应 将用于其碧南火电站的混燃发电，三井物产的氢供应则主要面向北海道电力的混燃项目及部分工业用 户。 中化新网讯 近日，日本经济产业省宣布完成其氢能差价合约计划的首次国际招标，JERA与三井物产牵 头的两大低碳氨进口项目成功中标，标志着日本氢能战略从国内示范正式转向构建大规模国际供应链的 关键阶段。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) aims to complete the Tarim 1.2 million tons/year ethylene project by 2026, emphasizing domestic equipment localization and green production methods [1] Group 1: Project Development - The Tarim ethylene project will achieve over 98% localization of equipment, with significant advancements in fully electric drives and the first domestic production of major equipment [1] - The project will utilize a "blue hydrogen to blue ammonia + carbon dioxide to urea" model for green production, aiming to create a zero-carbon petrochemical park [1] Group 2: Energy Security and Supply - CNPC is committed to being a "pillar" for energy supply security, focusing on domestic oil and gas exploration and production to ensure national energy security [1] - The company plans to deepen international energy cooperation and enhance overseas energy production and supply bases, improving trade security and cross-border energy channels [1] Group 3: Industry Transformation - CNPC is accelerating the restructuring and upgrading of refining and chemical sectors, optimizing product and industrial structures to enhance the supply of high-quality energy and chemical products [1] - The company aims to play a key role in building a strong energy nation and ensuring the stability of the oil and gas industry supply chain [1]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) plans to increase its investments in Japan to approximately $27 billion by the end of 2030, aiming to strengthen ties in various sectors from critical minerals to financial markets [1] - The PIF has invested $11.5 billion in Japan from 2019 to 2024 and anticipates further capital deployment, with a focus on both public and private markets [1][2] - Japan is currently Saudi Arabia's third-largest trading partner, and the PIF's investments are expected to contribute up to $16.6 billion to Saudi Arabia's GDP [1] Investment Strategy - The PIF's investment strategy for 2026-2030 identifies six key sectors, with specific details to be finalized at an upcoming summit in Saudi Arabia [2] - The fund aims to increase its annual capital deployment to $70 billion after this fiscal year, having invested nearly $57 billion in key sectors in 2024 [2] Regional Focus - Saudi Arabia is increasingly prioritizing relationships with Asian countries to attract foreign partners, supporting its multi-trillion-dollar Vision 2030 economic transformation plan [2] - The financial sector in Saudi Arabia has gained significant attention, with multiple markets, including mainland China, Hong Kong, and Japan, launching ETFs to track Saudi asset performance [2] Market Dynamics - International investors have shown sustained optimism towards the Japanese stock market, with foreign capital inflows reaching a historical high in October [3] - The PIF's investments are expected to enhance the attractiveness of Japanese companies to other global institutional investors [3] - Despite the positive foreign investment trend, Japan's stock indices experienced significant declines, attributed to rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December [3]

Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are shifting their investments in Qatar from traditional sectors to innovation-driven industries, aligning with Qatar's "2030 National Vision" for diversified development [1][3][4] Investment Trends - Investment diversification is evident in four key areas: - **Digital Economy and ICT**: Chinese companies are actively participating in cloud computing, smart city projects, and 5G infrastructure, with Huawei being a notable player in Qatar for over 20 years [3][4] - **Advanced Manufacturing and Transportation**: Yutong is collaborating with Qatar's Mowasalat to introduce electric buses, contributing to the green upgrade of Qatar's public transport system [3][4] - **Gaming and Creative Industries**: Tencent's Level Infinite is leveraging Qatar's growing gaming ecosystem to expand in the entertainment and digital content sectors [4] - **Legal and Professional Services**: Yingke Law Firm has established a branch in Qatar, providing cross-border business and legal consulting services for bilateral enterprises [4] Renewable Energy Cooperation - There is significant potential for cooperation in renewable energy, particularly in hydrogen production, battery technology, and carbon management systems, where Chinese companies hold world-leading expertise [5] - Qatar aims to achieve 18% renewable energy share and 25% greenhouse gas reduction by 2030, with major projects like the 800 MW Al Kharsaah solar power plant and plans for a 2 GW solar plant in Dukhan [5][6] - Qatar is set to build the world's largest blue ammonia plant by 2026, which will support hydrogen and ammonia-based clean energy solutions, creating opportunities for joint research with Chinese firms [5] - Qatar ranks first globally in carbon capture, storage, and utilization (CCUS), providing a platform for collaboration with China in CCS and energy storage solutions [5][6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.1 billion, with net earnings attributable to common stockholders of about $1.1 billion, or $6.39 per diluted share [5][21][22] - In the third quarter of 2025, net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $353 million, or $2.19 per diluted share, with EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA both around $670 million [21][22] - The trailing 12-month net cash from operations was $2.6 billion, and free cash flow was $1.7 billion, with a free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA conversion rate of 65% [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ammonia utilization rate for the first nine months of 2025 was 97%, with expectations to produce approximately 10 million tons of gross ammonia for the full year [14] - Significant progress was made in strategic initiatives, including the full utilization of expanded diesel exhaust fluid rail load-out capabilities, leading to record DEF shipments [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remained tight, with robust demand from North America, India, and Brazil, while product availability was constrained due to low global inventories and outages [17][18] - The company anticipates that the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain constructive, with strong demand expected to continue [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the world's leader in clean ammonia and has reduced GHG emissions intensity by 25% from its original baseline [6][7] - Plans for the development of the world's largest ultra-low emissions ammonia plant at the Blue Point Complex in Louisiana are underway, with expectations for significant financial and societal benefits [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for nitrogen, stating that nitrogen demand is largely inelastic and not significantly affected by grower profitability [11][12] - The company highlighted the misconception in the market regarding its valuation, noting that it trades at a low cash flow multiple compared to its strong free cash flow generation [13] Other Important Information - An incident at the Yazoo City, Mississippi complex was reported, but all employees and contractors were safe, and the investigation is ongoing [4][24] - The company returned $445 million to shareholders in the third quarter of 2025 and approximately $1.3 billion for the first nine months [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current market conditions and mid-cycle expectations - Management acknowledged that current conditions are above mid-cycle and expect full-year results to exceed mid-cycle numbers due to strong industry conditions [33][34] Question: Pricing premiums for low-carbon ammonia - The company is currently achieving a premium of $20-$25 per ton for low-carbon ammonia sold in Europe, with expectations for this to increase as demand grows [37] Question: Potential risks in the nitrogen outlook - Management indicated that while they assess market conditions daily, they see healthy demand growth and limited supply, making it difficult to identify significant risks [41][42] Question: Addressing the valuation disconnect - Management noted that the market does not fully recognize the company's financial strengths and that continued share repurchases will help address this valuation gap [46][70] Question: Future capital expenditures and maintenance - The company expects to maintain a capital expenditure range of approximately $550 million for its non-Bluepoint network, with additional investments for Bluepoint [50][51] Question: Impact of the Yazoo City incident on production - Management confirmed that the ammonia plant at Yazoo City was not directly affected and production plans remain on track [52]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global low-carbon ammonia demand could nearly double by 2050 due to factors such as energy carriers, next-generation fuels, and agricultural decarbonization potential [1] - Currently, the low-carbon ammonia market is facing financing challenges, with investors requiring long-term purchase agreements before funding projects, creating additional barriers in a sluggish environment [2] - Despite an initial surge in projects, the low-carbon ammonia market has shifted towards a more cautious approach, with only 270 million tons per year of actual capacity expected by 2050, significantly lower than the theoretical potential of 3.23 billion tons per year [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Fertecon forecasts that global ammonia demand will grow at an average annual rate of 2%, with total demand expected to rise from 203 million tons in 2025 to 372 million tons by 2050 [3] - The global ammonia production is projected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, reaching a total output of 372 million tons by 2050, aligning with demand expectations [3] - By 2050, the expected production of gray, green, and blue ammonia will be 204 million tons, 12.7 million tons, and 4 million tons, respectively [3] Group 3: Challenges and Uncertainties - Between 2028 and 2035, low-carbon ammonia capacity utilization may decline due to emerging demand not being able to absorb high-cost production, with North America and the Middle East remaining key project locations [4] - The number of finalized investment decisions for clean ammonia projects is limited, with only 6.8 million tons per year of capacity confirmed, which is negligible compared to gray ammonia production [2][4] Group 4: Policy Implications - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may create new premium opportunities for low-carbon ammonia, but its specific impacts remain uncertain [5] - CBAM will require EU ammonia importers to report product carbon intensity and purchase CBAM certificates starting January 1, 2026, potentially increasing embedded emission costs [5] - Current market dynamics suggest that CBAM could provide competitive opportunities for importers and overseas producers, potentially increasing low-carbon ammonia demand [5] Group 5: Industry Practices - Renewable green ammonia projects require 10 to 20-year purchase agreements for support, as highlighted by Fertiglobe's CEO [6] - Fertiglobe secured its first H2Global green ammonia contract at €1,000 per ton, with potential supply starting in 2027, contingent on the commissioning of its new plant in Egypt [6] - Although current premiums are limited, the industry anticipates that a distinct pricing system for low-carbon ammonia will eventually emerge as carbon intensity differences become more pronounced [7]

Group 1 - The low-carbon ammonia market is facing significant financing challenges, with investors requiring long-term purchase agreements before funding projects, which adds obstacles in the current economic climate [3] - The uncertainty of policies in Europe and the U.S. is hindering market development, particularly the ambiguity surrounding the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit and the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) [3][6] - Despite an initial surge in projects, the low-carbon ammonia market has shifted towards caution, with only a small number of projects having reached final investment decisions, resulting in a projected actual capacity of 27 million tons per year by 2050, far below the theoretical potential of 323 million tons per year [3][4] Group 2 - The global ammonia market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 2% over the next 25 years, driven mainly by energy applications [4] - By 2050, global ammonia production is anticipated to reach 372 million tons, aligning with demand forecasts, with blue and green ammonia expected to play a substantial role [4] - However, from 2028 to 2035, low-carbon ammonia capacity utilization may decline due to high production costs and emerging demand not being able to absorb this capacity [5] Group 3 - The implementation of the CBAM starting January 1, 2026, may create new premium opportunities for low-carbon ammonia producers, although the specific impacts remain uncertain [6] - The current market lacks a premium for low-carbon ammonia, which is necessary for market development, but there is an expectation that a pricing system will eventually emerge as carbon intensity differences become more apparent [8] - Companies from China and India are competing in the European green ammonia market at prices below $700 per ton, indicating a competitive landscape [6] Group 4 - Fertiglobe's CEO highlighted the need for long-term purchase agreements to support renewable green ammonia projects, with the company securing a contract for green ammonia at €1000 per ton, set to begin supply in 2027 [7]

Group 1 - Chevron plans to invest approximately $5 billion to build a blue hydrogen and blue ammonia plant in Port Arthur, Texas, under the HyVelocity Hub framework [1] - The plant is expected to begin construction in 2027 and start production in 2032, qualifying for a clean hydrogen production tax credit of up to $3 per kilogram for 10 years [1] - The project will utilize multiple Air Separation Units (ASU) to extract oxygen and nitrogen from the air, and an Autothermal Reforming (ATR) unit to convert natural gas and oxygen into hydrogen and carbon dioxide [1] Group 2 - The HyVelocity Hub, located along the Gulf Coast, is supported by various public and private entities, including Chevron, and has received up to $1.2 billion in federal funding [2] - The hub aims to supply low-carbon clean hydrogen for industrial, chemical, transportation, and power generation sectors, potentially reducing carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 7 million tons annually [2] - Earlier this year, the U.S. Department of Energy halted 24 funding projects from the Biden administration, citing economic viability issues, including a hydrogen burner installation project by ExxonMobil [2]