公开链接：https://seekingalpha.com/article/4687395-yum-china-holdings-inc-yumc-q1-2024- earnings-call-transcript 注：以下材料仅为公开资料整理，不涉及分析师的研究观点和投资建议，记录和翻译可能产生误差， 仅供参考，如有异议，请联系删除 去年第一季度调整后的营业利润是我们分拆以来最高的。这个季度是第二高的。 开店策略方面，我们仍然看好中国。我们认为中国市场在未来几年将为我们提供空白空间。在第一季 度，我们突破了15000家门店的里程碑，净开了378家新店。我们花了25年的时间在中国建立了第一家 5000家门店，花了8年的时间建立了接下来的5000家门店。剩下的5000家店只需要4年。我们的目标是 到2026年再增加5000家门店。 与某些报道相反，中国继续快速发展，每年都有数百个新的购物中心、住宅综合体和商业开发项目开 业。二线及以下城市的城市化和长期消费升级，机会巨大，住房和生活成本更便宜。另外，我们预计 今年大约30%的新店将开在新的城市或战略点，比如交通要地和旅游要地。 灵活门店：第一季度，三分之二的新店 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 增持 高基数影响同店短期承压略降，门店扩张节奏趋势向好 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 2024Q1实现经调归母净利润2.87亿美元，略优于市场一致预期。2024Q1， 社会服务·酒店餐饮 公司总收入29.58亿美元/+1.3%，收入表现略低于彭博一致预期（30.21 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 亿）；经调整经营利润3.74亿美元/-10.1%；经调整归母净利润为2.87 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn 亿美元/-1.7%，略优于彭博预期（2.66亿美元）。 S0980511040003 S0980513100003 经营数据方面，整体同店收入同比-3%，其中KFC/PZH分别-2%/-5%，高 证券分析师：张鲁 基数下增速下滑；系统销售同增6%，其中KFC/PZH分别同增7%/4%；餐 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn 厅利润率为17.6%/-2.7pct，其中KFC/PZH ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - 1Q 2024 revenue was $2.96 billion, yoy+1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Net profit was $287 million, yoy-1% (excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Adjusted net profit was $287 million, yoy-2% (excluding currency impact, yoy+4%) [1] - System sales grew by 6% in 1Q, driven by an 8% net increase in new stores [1] - KFC system sales increased by 7%, with revenue of $2.23 billion (yoy+1%, excluding currency impact, yoy+7%) [1] - Pizza Hut system sales grew by 4%, with revenue of $595 million (flat yoy, excluding currency impact, yoy+5%) [1] - Same-store sales declined by 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut same-store sales down by 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Restaurant operating margin was 17.6%, down 2.7 percentage points yoy [1] - KFC restaurant operating margin was 19.3%, down 2.9 percentage points yoy [1] - Pizza Hut restaurant operating margin was 12.5%, down 1.7 percentage points yoy [1] Development and Shareholder Returns - Net addition of 378 stores in 1Q, with KFC and Pizza Hut adding 307 and 113 stores respectively [2] - Total store count reached 15,022 by the end of 1Q 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut accounting for 10,603 and 3,425 stores respectively [2] - Share buybacks and cash dividends reached $745 million in 1Q, a record high for a single quarter [2] - Full-year 2024 development plan remains unchanged, targeting net store additions of 1,500-1,700 and capital expenditure of $700-850 million [2] - Plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends and share buybacks in 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026: $11.6 billion, $12.852 billion, and $13.938 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: $829 million, $940 million, and $1.047 billion respectively [3] - Forecasted EPS for 2024-2026: $2.12, $2.41, and $2.68 respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026: 18x, 16x, and 14x respectively [3] Operational Metrics - Gross margin for 2024-2026: 19.73%, 20.20%, and 20.68% respectively [6] - Net margin for 2024-2026: 7.15%, 7.32%, and 7.51% respectively [6] - ROE for 2024-2026: 12.91%, 13.25%, and 13.26% respectively [6] - ROIC for 2024-2026: 10.34%, 10.84%, and 10.98% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of USD 49.9 and HKD 389.3, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% and 32.2% respectively [1][2][12] Core Views - Yum China is expected to continue its expansion in lower-tier cities, driving revenue growth despite short-term pressure on same-store sales and profit margins due to increased promotional activities [1] - The company aims to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, which is ahead of previous expectations, and plans to return over USD 30 billion to investors through buybacks and dividends from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] - The report anticipates a cautious outlook for Q2 2024 due to high comparative base effects from Q2 2023, but expects a recovery in same-store sales and system-wide revenue in the second half of 2024 [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For 1Q24, system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut grew by 7% and 4% year-on-year, while same-store sales declined by 2% and 5% respectively, aligning with market expectations [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of USD 2,958 million for 1Q24, with a gross profit margin of 22.2%, down from 24.3% in 1Q23 [7][8] - The forecast for 2024 includes a revenue growth of high single digits year-on-year, with a slight contraction in operating profit margin by 50 basis points [1][2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2024E: USD 11,692 million (up 6.5% YoY) - 2025E: USD 12,631 million (up 8.0% YoY) - 2026E: USD 13,605 million (up 7.7% YoY) [2][4] - Net profit projections are: - 2024E: USD 842 million (up 1.8% YoY) - 2025E: USD 932 million (up 10.7% YoY) - 2026E: USD 1,063 million (up 14.1% YoY) [2][4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - PE ratio for 2024E: 19.0 - EV/EBITDA for 2024E: 7.9 - ROE for 2024E: 13.8% [2][4]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) reported strong first-quarter 2024 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding expectations, driven by robust system sales growth and new unit contributions [1][2] Earnings & Revenue Discussion - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2024 were 71 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 66 cents, and up 2.9% from 69 cents a year ago [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $2.96 billion, exceeding the consensus mark of $2.94 billion, and increased by 1% year-over-year; excluding foreign currency translation, revenues grew by 7% [2] - Total system sales rose by 6% year-over-year, attributed to an 8% contribution from net new units; KFC and Pizza Hut system sales increased by 7% and 4%, respectively, excluding foreign currency translation [2] - Same-store sales reached 97% of the previous year's level, despite strong performance in the same period last year [2] Operating Highlights - Total costs and expenses for Q1 2024 were $2.6 billion, up from $2.5 billion in the prior-year quarter [3] - Restaurant margin decreased to 17.6% from 20.3% a year ago, impacted by increased value-for-money offerings and wage inflation, partially offset by favorable commodity prices [3] - Adjusted operating profit was $374 million, down from $419 million a year ago; adjusted net income was $287 million compared to $292 million in the prior-year quarter [3] Balance Sheet - As of March 31, cash and cash equivalents were $883 million, down from $1.13 billion as of December 31, 2023; inventories were $345 million compared to $424 million [4] - In Q1, Yum China repurchased nearly 16.6 million shares for $681 million, with $853 million remaining for the buyback program [4] - A quarterly cash dividend of 16 cents per common share was declared, payable on June 18 to shareholders of record as of May 28 [4] Unit Development and Other Updates - Yum China opened 378 net new stores in Q1 2024, bringing the total restaurant count to 15,022 [5] - Delivery contributed 39% to KFC and 37% to Pizza Hut's company sales; digital orders accounted for 89% of company sales, consistent with the previous year's levels [5] - Loyalty programs for KFC and Pizza Hut saw membership growth, increasing to over 485 million [5] 2024 Outlook - Yum China projects 1,500-1,700 new store openings in 2024, with capital expenditures expected to be between $700-$850 million [6]

Certain metrics fell in the latest quarter, but the company is promising some good things for the year.Shares of restaurant company Yum China (YUMC -6.42%) -- parent company of KFC, Pizza Hut, and more in China -- dropped on Tuesday after it reported financial results for the first quarter of 2024. The company grew sales by opening new restaurants, but sales at existing restaurants fell, which was not something investors cared for. As of 10 a.m. ET, Yum China stock was down 6%, but it had been down 10% earl ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System sales grew 6% year-over-year, following a 17% growth last year [6][22] - Revenue reached an all-time high of US$3 billion in the quarter [6] - Core operating profit improved to US$396 million from US$392 million last year [6][22] - Adjusted operating profit was the second highest in 30 quarters since the spin-off [6] - Diluted EPS grew 10% year-over-year to $0.71 [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC system sales increased 7% year-over-year, with 307 net new stores added [23] - KFC same-store sales were at 98% of prior year levels, with 4% same-store traffic growth [23] - Pizza Hut system sales increased 4% year-over-year, with 113 net new stores added [24] - Pizza Hut same-store sales were at 95% of prior year levels, driven by strong traffic growth of 8% [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Two-thirds of new store openings were in smaller store formats [9] - KFC's delivery sales grew by 14%, maintaining consistent growth over the past decade [36] - Sales at shopping malls surpassed 2019 levels, indicating robust trading [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to open 1,500 to 1,700 net new stores in 2024, focusing on strategic locations [29] - The flexible store models and franchise partnerships are key to capitalizing on opportunities in lower-tier cities [9] - The company is committed to enhancing operational efficiency through initiatives like Project Fresh Eye [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that competition remains intense but is viewed positively as it drives industry growth [50] - The company anticipates a challenging second quarter due to high base comparisons from last year [28] - Management emphasized the importance of adapting to consumer behavior and maintaining a balanced approach to pricing and product offerings [34][39] Other Important Information - The company returned a record US$745 million to shareholders in the first quarter through share repurchases and dividends [29] - The effective tax rate was 26.9% in the first quarter, lower than the previous year due to fewer non-tax deductible expenses [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on same-store sales and consumption trends - Management highlighted robust transaction growth during the Chinese New Year and noted that consumers are responding well to both high-ticket and lower-ticket items [33][34] Question: Traffic growth sources - Management indicated that traffic growth is coming from both new customers and increased frequency from existing customers, with a focus on value for money [41][42] Question: Competitive environment and promotional intensity - Management acknowledged that competition has intensified but emphasized the importance of evolving with competitors and maintaining a consistent strategy [50][51] Question: Cost of goods sold and food cost outlook - Management noted that food costs have increased due to promotional activities but expect favorable commodity prices to help manage costs moving forward [60][61] Question: Delivery services resilience post-COVID - Management confirmed that delivery sales have remained strong and are focusing on smaller order sizes to enhance growth in this segment [66]

First Quarter 2024 Results 30 April 2024 NYSE: YUMC and HKEX: 9987 Cautionary Statement Thispresentationcontains“forward-lookingstatements”withinthemeaningofSection27AoftheSecuritiesActof1933andSection21EoftheSecurities ExchangeActof1934.Weintendallforward-lookingstatementstobecoveredbythesafeharborprovisionsofthePrivateSecuritiesLitigationReformAct of1995..Forward-lookingstatementsgenerallycanbeidentifiedbythefactthattheydonotrelatestrictlytohistoricalorcurrentfactsandbytheuseof forward-looking words such ...

For the quarter ended March 2024, Yum China Holdings (YUMC) reported revenue of $2.96 billion, up 1.4% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.71, compared to $0.69 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +0.64% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.94 billion. With the consensus EPS estimate being $0.66, the EPS surprise was +7.58%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue grew by 1% to $2.96 billion; excluding foreign currency effects, revenue would have increased by 7%[3] - Operating profit reached $374 million, with a core operating profit of $396 million, reflecting a 1% increase[3] - Operating profit for the quarter reached $372 million, with core operating profit at $392 million[7] - Operating profit for Pizza Hut was $47 million, with core operating profit at $50 million[9] - Total revenue for Q1 2024 reached $2,958 million, a 1% increase from $2,917 million in Q1 2023[16] - The net profit attributable to Yum China Holdings, Inc. was $287 million, down 1% from $289 million in the previous year[16] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.72, an increase from $0.69 in the same quarter of 2023[26] - The diluted EPS for the quarter was $0.71, up from $0.69 in the same quarter of 2023[26] - The adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $495 million, down from $539 million in the same quarter of 2023[26] - The effective tax rate improved to 26.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from 28.5%[16] Sales and Revenue Growth - System sales increased by 6% year-over-year, driven by an 8% contribution from net new store openings[3] - Same-store sales were at 97% of last year's level, indicating strong performance despite challenges[3] - Digital sales amounted to $2.5 billion, accounting for 89% of restaurant revenue[3] - KFC and Pizza Hut membership reached 485 million, with member sales contributing 65% to system sales[3] - Takeout sales grew by 14%, accounting for approximately 39% of KFC restaurant revenue, while non-dine-in business represented about 68% of total revenue[7] - KFC restaurant revenue was $2,193 million, up 1% from $2,166 million in the same quarter last year[17] - Total revenue for the company reached $2,958 million, with KFC contributing $2,230 million and Pizza Hut contributing $595 million[30] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 15,022, with a net addition of 378 stores, marking a record high for the first quarter[3] - KFC added 307 net new stores this quarter, more than double the number from the same period last year, with 58 of those being franchise stores[7] - Pizza Hut added 113 net new stores this quarter, a 40% increase compared to 80 net new stores in the same period last year[9] - The company plans to add approximately 1,500 to 1,700 new stores in fiscal year 2024[10] - As of December 31, 2023, the total number of KFC restaurants increased to 10,296, with 303 new openings and 59 closures, projecting a total of 10,603 by March 31, 2024[22] - The total number of Pizza Hut restaurants reached 3,312 as of December 31, 2023, with 140 new openings and 27 closures, expected to grow to 3,425 by March 31, 2024[23] - The total number of franchised restaurants for KFC reached 1,059, with 63 new openings and 4 closures, projected to increase to 1,117 by March 31, 2024[22] Profit Margins and Costs - Operating profit margin was 12.6%, impacted by a decrease in restaurant profit margin to 17.6%[3] - Restaurant profit margin was 19.3%, a decrease of 190 basis points compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased labor costs and the introduction of high-value products[7] - Restaurant profit margin for Pizza Hut was 12.5%, down 100 basis points year-over-year, influenced by increased labor costs and the introduction of high-value products[9] - The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 19.3%, down 2.9 percentage points from 22.2% in Q1 2023[17] - Food and packaging costs represented 32.1% of total revenue, an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 30.1%[16] - Employee benefits accounted for 25.4% of total revenue, up 0.8 percentage points from 24.6%[16] - The company's restaurant profit margin decreased to 12.5%, down from 14.2% year-over-year, a decline of 1.7 percentage points[18] Shareholder Returns - Shareholder cash return reached $745 million, setting a new record for a single quarter[3] - The company aims to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through quarterly cash dividends and stock buybacks[10] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to expand through flexible store formats and strategic partnerships to capture market opportunities[4] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence and enhancing its product offerings through new technology and product development initiatives[36] - The company plans to continue its strategy of central procurement to optimize costs and improve profitability across its franchise operations[36] Non-GAAP Measures and Adjustments - Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by excluding special items and includes net profit, taxes, interest income, investment gains or losses, depreciation, and impairment charges[24] - Core operating profit is defined as adjusted operating profit further excluding items affecting comparability and foreign currency translation impacts, providing a clearer view of ongoing operational performance[25] - The company emphasizes that non-GAAP measures provide additional insights for investors to compare past and current performance, despite not replacing GAAP financial metrics[24]