Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Yum China (09987) experienced an 11% stock price increase on February 5, driven by better-than-expected Q4 2025 performance and a shift in investor perception regarding the competitive and pricing environment in the Chinese restaurant industry [1] - Same-store sales for KFC in Q4 2025 exceeded expectations, and a price increase in delivery services in January indicates a recovery in consumer confidence and a more rational pricing trend in the industry [1] - Despite management's forecast of only a slight year-on-year increase in operating profit margin for 2026, the improving competitive landscape in the Chinese market suggests potential for profit margins to exceed market expectations [1] Group 2 - Daiwa reiterated a "Buy" rating for Yum China, raising the target price to HKD 520 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Yum China (09987) stock price rose by 11% on February 5, driven by better-than-expected Q4 2025 performance and a shift in investor perception regarding competition and pricing in the Chinese restaurant industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yum China's Q4 2025 same-store sales exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence and a more rational pricing environment in the industry [1] - The management forecasts a slight year-on-year increase in operating profit margin for 2026, suggesting potential for margins to surpass market expectations as competition improves [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The increase in stock price is attributed to a change in investor understanding of the competitive and pricing landscape in the Chinese dining sector [1] - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China, raising the target price to HKD 520, reflecting positive sentiment towards the company's future performance [1]

2月4日，在消费市场迭代加速、竞争格局深度调整的行业背景下，百胜中国凭借 "提效与创新"战略， 于 2025 年交出了一份兼具增长力度与质量的成绩单，实现了系统销售额与同店销售额双增长，经营利 润率创下美国上市以来同期新高。 市场分析指出，随着 2026 年 20000 家门店目标的推进，这家餐饮巨头将进一步巩固行业领先地位，在 消费变革与市场竞争的浪潮中，持续以创新驱动增长，以品质赢得消费者，续写品牌发展的新篇章。 规模利润双增长 2025 年，百胜中国的增长战略成效显著，核心经营指标全面向好：全年业绩稳健增长，总收入同比增 长4%至118亿美元，经营利润为13亿美元，同比增长11%。 在营收端，同店销售额连续第三个季度实现正增长，增长势头稳健；系统销售额持续攀升，第四季度同 比增幅高达 7%，彰显出品牌对消费者的强大吸引力。在利润端，创新与提效双轮驱动战略持续发力， 2025 年各季度经营利润率均实现同比扩张，全年经营利润率达到 10.9%，剔除特殊项目后，创下公司 美国上市以来的最高水平。 对于 2026 年的发展，百胜中国制定了清晰的规划。百胜中国计划全年净新增门店超过 1900 家，冲击 20000 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 百胜中国（09987.HK） 百胜中国 2025Q4 及全年业绩公告点评：质 地稳健的高股息龙头，维持推荐 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万美元） | 11,303 | 11,797 | 12,686 | 13,426 | 14,262 | | 同比(%) | 2.96 | 4.37 | 7.54 | 5.83 | 6.23 | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | 911.00 | 929.00 | 1,042.71 | 1,143.75 | 1,262.86 | | 同比(%) | 10.16 | 1.98 | 12.24 | 9.69 | 10.41 | | EPS-最新摊薄（美元/股） | 2.57 | 2.62 | 2.94 | 3.23 | 3.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.10 | 21.67 | 19.31 | 17.61 | ...

Core Insights - Yum China reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.82 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9% (7% excluding foreign currency effects) [1] - The company achieved an operating profit of $187 million in Q4 2025, up 25% year-over-year, with a corresponding operating profit margin of 6.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [1] - For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 same-store sales growth was 3%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.6%, with transaction volume increasing by 4% [1] - KFC's Q4 2025 system sales grew by 8%, with same-store sales up 3% and transaction volume also increasing by 3% [1] - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2025 was 13.0%, benefiting from optimized sales costs and improved rental and other expense ratios [1] Store Expansion and Business Model - In 2025, the company added 1,706 new stores, bringing the total to 18,101, with franchise stores accounting for 36% of the total [2] - KFC added 1,349 new stores, while Pizza Hut added a record 444 stores [2] - The company plans to add over 1,900 new stores in 2026, with a target of increasing the franchise ratio to 40%-50% [2] Shareholder Returns - Yum China achieved its shareholder return target of $1.5 billion for 2025, with $350 million in dividends and $1.14 billion in share buybacks [2] - The company plans to maintain a similar return of $1.5 billion in 2026, with a 21% increase in quarterly cash dividends [2] - As of the end of 2025, the company had $2 billion in net cash and $840 million in free cash flow, indicating strong liquidity [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $1.015 billion and $1.079 billion, respectively, with an introduction of a forecast for 2028 at $1.163 billion [2] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted to HKD 498.81 and USD 63.42, reflecting a slight increase in the premium rate due to expected profit improvements and strong shareholder returns [2]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $2.823 billion in Q4 2025, representing an 8.8% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [1] - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, an 8.75% increase, while the Pizza Hut division reported $540 million, a 5.9% increase [1] - The company expects same-store sales growth to remain stable, with a guidance of 0-2% growth for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, operating profit reached $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase, and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.40 [1] - The operating profit margin for KFC was 10.5%, up 0.7 percentage points, while Pizza Hut's margin was 3.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point [1] - Delivery revenue grew by 34%, with restaurant revenue accounting for 53% of total sales [1] Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [2] - By the end of 2026, the company anticipates adding over 1,900 new stores, with a franchise ratio expected to reach 40-50% for new openings [2] Cost Structure and Profitability - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total expenses, up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, while food and material costs were 31.7%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [2] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a shareholder return of approximately $1.5 billion for 2026, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2]

Group 1 - The core investment recommendation is to maintain a "Buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2026-2028 at $10.05 billion, $10.62 billion, and $11.43 billion respectively, and an EPS forecast of $2.91, $3.21, and $3.56 for the same years, leading to a target price of HKD 500.00 based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026 [1] - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenues of $28.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (7% excluding exchange rate effects), with operating profit at $1.87 billion, up 25% (23% excluding exchange rate effects), and a net profit of $1.4 billion, up 24% (22% excluding exchange rate effects) [1] Group 2 - Same-store sales accelerated in Q4 2025, with a 3% year-on-year increase, compared to 1% in Q3 2025; KFC same-store sales rose by 3% while Pizza Hut's increased by 1% [2] - As of the end of 2025, the total number of stores reached 18,101, a 10% year-on-year increase, with KFC stores numbering 12,997, reflecting a 12% increase [2] - The proportion of takeaway sales increased to 53% in Q4 2025, up from 51% in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company's restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, a 0.7 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [3] - KFC's restaurant profit margin reached 14.0%, benefiting from operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices, although this was partially offset by increased delivery costs [3] - Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margin was 9.9%, also improved due to operational efficiencies and favorable raw material prices, but impacted by higher costs associated with increased takeaway sales [3]

机构：光大证券 盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑到公司经营势头良好，经营效率持续提升，我们上调公司2026-2027 年归 母净利润预测分别至10.27/11.09 亿美元（分别上调2%/3%），新增2028 年归母净利润预测为11.83 亿美 元，折合2026-2028 年EPS 分别为2.90/3.13/3.34 美元。当前股价对应2026-2028 年PE 分别为 事件：25Q4 公司实现营收28.23 亿美元，同比+9%（或+7%，不计及外币换算影响）；实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元，同比+25%（或+23%，不计及外币换算影响）。 17x/16x/15x，公司为西式快餐龙头企业，具备较强的数字化和供应链能力，两大核心品牌在渠道下沉 方面仍具备一定增长空间，维持"买入"评级。 25Q4 同店销售额增长提速，开店节奏加快。门店经营方面，25Q4 系统销售额同比+7%（肯德基/必胜 客分别同比+8%/+6%），25Q4 同店销售额同比+3%（肯德基/必胜客分别同比+3%/+1%）。其中25Q4 肯德基同店交易量/客单价分别同比+3%/持平，客单价保持稳定主要系小额订单的增长被外卖占比的增 加所抵销，外卖订单客单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (09987.HK) [1] Core Insights - Yum China reported a 4% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the full year 2025, with a 9% increase in Q4 revenue, exceeding previous expectations [7] - The company achieved a net profit growth of 2% for the full year and 24% for Q4, attributed to automation, lean operations, and improved raw material costs [7] - The total number of stores reached 18,100 by the end of 2025, with a net addition of 1,706 stores throughout the year [7] - Same-store sales showed significant improvement, with a 1% increase for the full year and a 3% increase in Q4 [7] - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with plans to exceed 20,000 stores and a capital expenditure of $600-700 million [7] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, with a dividend yield of nearly 8% [7] - Earnings forecasts for 2026-2028 have been adjusted upwards, with projected net profits of $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are $11.30 billion, $11.80 billion, $12.69 billion, $13.43 billion, and $14.26 billion respectively, with year-over-year growth rates ranging from 2.96% to 7.54% [1] - Net profit projections for the same period are $911 million, $929 million, $1.04 billion, $1.14 billion, and $1.26 billion, with growth rates from 1.98% to 12.24% [1] - The latest diluted EPS estimates are $2.57, $2.62, $2.94, $3.23, and $3.56 for the years 2024 to 2028 [1] - The current P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 22.10 in 2024 to 15.94 in 2028 [1]

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