Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Yum China’s financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, showing a total revenue growth of 4% to $11.8 billion and an operating profit of $1.3 billion, which is an 11% increase year-on-year [1] - Store expansion is identified as a key driver of Yum China's revenue growth, with a net addition of 1,706 stores in 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by year-end [1] - The two main brands, KFC and Pizza Hut, experienced a store growth rate of approximately 12% in 2025, with KFC increasing from 11,648 to 12,997 stores and Pizza Hut from 3,724 to 4,168 stores [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the total number of new stores for the two main brands in the previous year was 1,793, which exceeds Yum China's total new store count of 1,706 for 2025, indicating a reduction in the number of secondary brands [3] - Yum China aims to accelerate its store expansion, targeting 20,000 stores by 2026 and 30,000 by 2030, requiring a net addition of approximately 1,900 stores in 2026, averaging over 5 new stores per day [3] - The franchise model is crucial for scaling growth, with the proportion of franchise stores increasing for both KFC and Pizza Hut from 15% to 37% and 2% to 31% respectively from 2023 to 2025 [3] Group 3 - The takeaway business has significantly impacted Yum China's performance, with a 25% year-on-year growth in delivery sales, which now account for 48% of restaurant revenue, up from 39% in 2024 [5] - In the fourth quarter, the delivery sales proportion for KFC and Pizza Hut reached 53% and 54% respectively, indicating a growing reliance on delivery services [5] - To address rising costs associated with delivery, Yum China announced a price increase for delivery products by an average of 0.8 yuan, while maintaining dine-in prices [5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 百胜中国（09987.HK） 优于大市 同店收入连续 3 季度正增，2026 年门店扩张提速 2025Q4 归母净利润同增 22%。2025Q4，公司实现收入 28.23 亿美元/+8.8%； 实现经营利润 1.87 亿美元/+23.8%；归母净利润 1.40 亿美元/+21.7%； EPS 为 0.40 美元。分品牌看，2025Q4，肯德基分部收入 21.25 亿美元 /+8.75%；经营利润 2.23 亿美元/+16.1%；经营利润率为 10.5%/+0.7pct。 必胜客分部收入 5.40 亿美元/+5.9%；经营利润 2000 万美元/+42.9%； 经营利润率为 3.7%，同比+1.0pct。分渠道看，外卖收入同增 34%，增 速环比继续上行，餐厅收入占比已达到 53%。 外卖占比提升人工成本上行，餐厅利润率表现优秀。2025Q4，薪金及雇员 福利占比约 29.3%，同比+1.1pct，外卖收入占比提升致外卖骑手成本上 升影响为主；食品及原材料占比为 31.7%，同比-0.2pct；物业租金及其 他经营开支占比约 26.0%，同比-1.6pct，公司餐厅利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [5] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of $2.8 billion in Q4 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9%, exceeding expectations. For the full year 2025, revenue reached $11.8 billion, up 4% year-over-year [1] - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 8% based on the current market capitalization [1] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, with over 1,900 new stores planned for 2026, increasing the proportion of franchise stores from 37% to a target of 40-50% [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, a 25% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $140 million, up 22% year-over-year [1] - For the full year 2025, the operating profit was $1.29 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $929 million, a 2% increase year-over-year [1] - The company expects revenues for 2026-2028 to be $12.36 billion, $13.15 billion, and $13.97 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.003 billion, $1.096 billion, and $1.188 billion [4] Operational Efficiency - The profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut improved in Q4 2025, with KFC at 14.0% and Pizza Hut at 9.9%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points respectively [2] - The company has been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a management expense ratio of 4.9% for the full year 2025, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2]

Market Overview - The software sector and cryptocurrency experienced a significant downturn, with the S&P 500 index falling by 1.23% to 6798.4 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.59% to 22540.59 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.2% to 48908.72 points, marking the worst three-day sell-off since April of the previous year [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped below $64,000, losing nearly half its value over the past six months, while spot silver saw a single-day decline of nearly 20% [1] Employment Data Impact - The recent weak U.S. employment data has halted the recent sector rotation, with 318 stocks in the S&P 500 declining. December job openings unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2020, and the number of layoffs reached the highest January level since the severe recession in 2009 [3] - Allianz's Chief Economic Advisor, Mohamed El-Erian, noted that layoffs are occurring despite GDP growth of approximately 4%, indicating a decoupling of employment from economic growth, which could have profound economic, political, and social implications [3] Company-Specific Developments - Amazon's stock plummeted over 10% after announcing a capital expenditure forecast of $200 billion for the year, significantly higher than the previous year's $130 billion and analyst expectations of $150 billion, which negatively impacted its profit guidance [3] - Nvidia's stock fell by 1.33%, while other major tech companies like Apple, Google, and Microsoft also saw declines, with Microsoft down 4.95% and Amazon down 4.42% [6] AI and Software Sector - The software sector faced pressure following the release of a new flagship model by AI company Anthropic, contributing to a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks. FaceSet dropped 7.21%, reaching its lowest point since March 2020, while Thomson Reuters fell over 5%, hitting a new low since 2021 [6] - Amid concerns over AI capital expenditures, some supply chain stocks performed well, such as Tianhong Technology, which rose 6.9% due to Google's $185 billion capital expenditure guidance [6] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.9%. Notable performances included NIO up 5.86% and Baidu up 0.73%, while Alibaba and JD.com saw slight declines [7] Other Industry News - Pandora, the world's largest jewelry company, surged 16.83% after announcing plans to reduce reliance on pure silver by introducing platinum-plated jewelry in response to rising silver prices [8] - The proposed merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore to form the world's largest mining group collapsed, with Glencore citing undervaluation of its contribution to the merger [9] - Nvidia announced delays in the release of its RTX 50 series graphics cards due to memory shortages, prioritizing AI chip production instead [10] - Hims & Hers Health plans to launch a cheaper generic version of the oral weight loss drug semaglutide, causing a significant drop in the stock price of Novo Nordisk, which had just received approval for its brand product [11]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing year-over-year growth in both metrics [1][4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were 40 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 35 cents by 14.3%, and increased 33% year over year [4] - Total revenues reached $2.8 billion, beating the consensus mark of $2.7 billion and growing 8.8% from the previous year [4] - System sales (excluding foreign exchange) rose 7% year over year, with KFC system sales increasing by 8% and Pizza Hut by 6% [5] Operational Highlights - Total costs and expenses were $2.64 billion, up 8% from last year, while the restaurant margin improved by 70 basis points to 13% due to savings in food, paper, and occupancy costs [6] - Adjusted operating profit grew 25% to $187 million, and adjusted EBITDA increased to $318 million from $292 million the previous year [6] Business Segments - KFC's revenues rose 9% to $2.1 billion, with operating profit up 16% to $223 million [7] - Pizza Hut's revenues climbed 6% to $540 million, and operating profit surged 52% to $20 million [7] 2025 Highlights - Total revenues for 2025 were $11.8 billion, compared to $11.3 billion in 2024 [8] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1.78 billion, up from $1.69 billion in 2024, and adjusted EPS increased to $2.51 from $2.33 [8] - The company opened 1,706 net new stores, with franchisees accounting for 31% of the openings, bringing the total store count to 18,101 as of December 31, 2025 [8] Shareholder Returns - Yum China returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $1.14 billion in share repurchases and $353 million in cash dividends [11] - The board declared a 21% increase in the cash dividend to $0.29 per share, payable on March 25, 2026 [11] 2026 Outlook - For 2026, Yum China plans to open a total of 20,000 stores, with capital expenditure expected between $600 million and $700 million [12] - The company aims to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 [12]

Company Overview - Yum China Holdings (YUMC) currently holds a Momentum Style Score of B, indicating a positive outlook based on momentum investing principles [3][12] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), which is supported by a strong track record of outperforming the market [4][12] Price Performance - YUMC shares have increased by 0.69% over the past week, while the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry has declined by 3.76% during the same period [6] - Over the past month, YUMC's price change is 11.78%, significantly outperforming the industry's 2.28% [6] - In the last quarter, YUMC shares rose by 14.87%, and over the past year, they gained 16.74%, compared to the S&P 500's increases of 1.9% and 15.32%, respectively [7] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for YUMC is 1,198,519 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, three earnings estimates for YUMC have been revised upwards, while none have been lowered, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $2.85 to $2.90 [10] - For the next fiscal year, two estimates have also moved upwards with no downward revisions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an initial increase of 1.21%, indicating positive market sentiment towards Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. [1] Company Performance - NIO experienced a significant rise of 7.4% - Miniso increased by 5.4% - Yum China rose by 3.4% - Li Auto gained 2.8% - ZTO Express, Zai Lab, Bilibili, Baidu, and Kingsoft Cloud all saw increases of over 2% - Alibaba had a modest increase of 0.7% - Pony.ai declined by 1.2% - New Oriental fell by 2.8% [1] ETF Performance - KWEB ETF rose by 1.14% - CQQQ ETF increased by 0.7% - ASHR ETF decreased by 0.1% - ASHS ETF fell by 1.3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China is experiencing high-quality growth in the restaurant industry, with a projected total revenue increase of 4% to $11.8 billion in 2025 and an operating profit of $1.3 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year growth [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Yum China's operating profit margin increased by 60 basis points to 10.9%, marking a new high since its U.S. listing in 2016 [2] - The company's system sales and same-store sales have shown growth for three consecutive quarters, maintaining profitability in various economic cycles [2] Group 2: Market Expansion Strategy - Yum China aims to exceed 30,000 stores by the end of 2030, with a dual strategy of "outward expansion" and "internal efficiency improvement" already underway [2] - The company is focusing on increasing store density in lower-tier cities, where the current density is significantly lower than in first and second-tier cities [2][4] Group 3: Store Model Innovation - The company is iterating on store models to enhance adaptability and reduce costs, utilizing AI technology to improve overall efficiency [3] - The shift towards smaller store formats and the "shoulder-to-shoulder" modular approach allows for better resource allocation and coverage of diverse consumer scenarios [5][6] Group 4: Delivery and Takeout Growth - By 2025, delivery sales accounted for 48% of restaurant revenue, up from 39% in 2024, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4] - New store formats like the compact KFC and satellite Pizza Hut are designed to cater to delivery and takeout demands [4] Group 5: Supply Chain Efficiency - Yum China is implementing a "full utilization" strategy in its supply chain, optimizing the use of chicken parts across different brands [12] - The company is also adjusting procurement strategies for seasonal ingredients to stabilize cost fluctuations [14] Group 6: Innovation and Product Development - Over the past three years, Yum China has launched more than 1,600 new products, averaging 1.5 new or upgraded items daily [16] - The focus on core products allows for reduced risk in new product development while enhancing customer loyalty [16] Group 7: Financial Discipline and Shareholder Returns - Yum China has committed to returning approximately $4.5 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026, with a specific annual plan of about $1.5 billion [20] - The balance between flexibility in operations and strategic stability supports predictable financial performance [20]

Group 1 - Yum China reported a strong financial performance for the year 2025, with operating profit reaching $1.3 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The company opened 1,706 new stores in 2025, expanding its network to 18,101 locations across over 2,500 cities in China [1][3] - In Q4 2025, Yum China's operating profit saw a significant increase of 25% year-on-year, with same-store sales growing for the third consecutive quarter [1][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other agencies issued a notice regarding the "2026 Spring Festival Special Activity Plan," promoting various food-related events to enhance consumer engagement during the holiday [1][3] - The plan includes initiatives such as launching New Year's Eve dinner packages, organizing food festivals, and encouraging local food markets to attract more consumers [1][3] - Huachuang Securities highlighted that the upcoming Spring Festival consumption season is expected to see strong recovery, driven by government-led consumption policies and diverse promotional activities [2][4] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF closely tracks the consumption theme index, which includes leading companies in traditional service sectors and high-growth assets, with a rolling P/E ratio of 17.9 and a dividend yield of 3.6% as of February 4 [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China (YUMC) reported better-than-expected performance in the last quarter, driven by strong same-store sales at KFC and operational leverage from both KFC and Pizza Hut [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's sales growth and operating profit/net profit exceeded both the firm's and market expectations [2] - The management reaffirmed mid-term guidance for 2026 to 2028, expecting positive same-store sales growth and transaction volume in the first quarter of this year, although profit margins are expected to remain stable year-on-year due to a high base [2] Group 2: Profit Forecasts - The firm raised Yum China's net profit forecasts for the next two years by 5% each and introduced a forecast for 2028 for the first time, anticipating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% for operating profit [2] - The target price for Yum's U.S. stock was increased from $58.75 to $63.64, while the target price for its H-shares was raised from HKD 455.32 to HKD 497, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2]