J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 05 July 2025 Japan Equity Strategy Last-minute tariff negotiations and Upper House election: What if reciprocal tariffs of 35% take effect? Japanese equities might see a spike in short-term volatility next week, depending on the outcome of US-Japan trade negotiations. With the July 9 negotiation deadline fast approaching, the market expects 8–10 countries to reach an agreement with the US, but if the US and Japan fail to reach a deal and reciprocal tariffs on Japan ar ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the LNG industry Core Insights - The report highlights a projected recovery in China's LNG demand in the second half of 2025, despite an overall decline in annual volumes due to various factors including mild weather and increased renewable energy output [5][26][29] - Global LNG trade in June 2025 reached 46.5 Bcm, showing a slight month-over-month decline but a year-over-year increase of 5.9% [5] - The report anticipates a total of approximately 294 Bcm/year of LNG projects currently under construction to begin operations by 2030, with the US accounting for about half of this capacity [1][6] Summary by Sections Global LNG Balances - Year-to-date global LNG demand growth was primarily driven by Europe and the East Mediterranean region, while demand from Asia, particularly China, saw a decline [5][26] - The report forecasts a total LNG trade volume of 590 Bcm for the full year 2025, reflecting a growth of around 5% [5][17] Spotlight on China - China's LNG demand has been weak in 2025, with a 1.3% decline in overall natural gas demand in the first five months compared to the previous year [26][27] - The Power of Siberia pipeline has reduced the need for more expensive LNG imports, contributing to a projected total LNG import volume of 101 Bcm for the year, down 4.7% year-over-year [28][29] Import Trends by Country - The report details that YTD LNG supply growth has been led by the US, with an increase of 11.5 Bcm to 72.4 Bcm, largely due to the Plaquemines LNG facility [5][6] - European imports have increased significantly, while demand from Asia, particularly China, has decreased [5][19] Export Trends by Country - The report notes that North America, the Middle East, and the Pacific regions are the primary exporters, with total exports reaching 46.5 Bcm in June 2025 [19][20] - The report highlights various upcoming projects and expansions in the LNG sector, including those in Mozambique and Canada, which are expected to contribute to future supply [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the equity market under the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting potential for improved margins despite a near-term negative impact on GDP growth [8][12]. Core Insights - The report discusses China's shift towards an "anti-involution" policy aimed at controlling excess supply-side capacity, which has contributed to deflation and reduced corporate profitability [2][3]. - It highlights the historical context of supply-side reforms in China, noting that the current phase is reminiscent of past capacity rationalizations that began in mid-2014 [4][7]. - The report identifies sectors with excess capacity, including Food Processing, Autos, Electronics, Chemicals, and Healthcare, which could see margin improvements if utilization rates increase [8][12]. Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reforms - The report outlines three phases of China's previous capacity rationalization cycle, emphasizing that the current situation is in the early stages of Phase 1, characterized by policy anticipation and a "hope rally" [4][7]. - It notes that low utilization rates across various sectors indicate a need for improved supply discipline, with recent policy comments from the Central Commission for Finance & Economic Affairs being particularly significant [7][8]. Sector Analysis - The report suggests that while addressing supply-side excesses may weigh on GDP growth in the short term, it is likely to benefit stock performance due to better margins [8][12]. - Solar Glass is highlighted as a sector to watch, with potential for significant upside if government-enforced capacity discipline is implemented, suggesting a possible increase in stock valuation from 0.9x P/B to 3x P/B [8][12]. Investment Themes - The report identifies three key investment themes: yield stocks benefiting from low interest rates, consumer leaders poised for growth, and companies that will benefit from improved supply discipline [12][13]. - Specific stock recommendations include Petrochina, CR Power, and Ping An for yield stocks, and Alibaba, Tencent, and JD for consumer leaders [13].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Vietnam to Overweight (OW) within ASEAN, alongside Singapore and the Philippines, while maintaining Neutral on Indonesia and Malaysia, and Underweight on Thailand [1][18]. Core Insights - Vietnam's recent tariff deal with the US, setting a 20% rate on domestically-produced goods, is viewed as a significant positive development, potentially boosting foreign direct investment (FDI) and supporting economic growth [3][19]. - The report anticipates that announcements of trade deals and lower tariffs will serve as key catalysts for market movements in the near term, particularly for countries actively negotiating with the US [4][19]. - Despite the positive outlook, the report cautions that it is still early for earnings forecasts to rebound, with potential risks of downward revisions remaining [4][19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Negotiations - Vietnam has successfully negotiated a reduction in tariffs from 46% to 20%, with a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, which may impact exports with significant Chinese content [5][19]. - Other ASEAN countries, including Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are still in discussions with the US regarding tariff negotiations [1][5]. Economic Growth and FDI - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to approach 8% in 2Q25, driven by public spending and investment disbursement, distinguishing it from other ASEAN nations with limited fiscal room [18][20]. - The report highlights that Vietnam's manufacturing and export sectors are expected to remain resilient, supported by a favorable tariff environment compared to China [19][20]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include industrial real estate, ports, logistics, construction, and technology producers, which are expected to benefit from the lifting of uncertainties surrounding trade policies [4][15]. - The report recommends a focus on domestic growth proxies, particularly in Vietnam's banking, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector, but it discusses the potential impact of tariffs on companies, indicating a cautious outlook for those affected by high tariffs [1][2]. Core Insights - President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, including a surprising 200% rate, may lead to a transition period of 1 to 1.5 years, allowing companies to adjust their supply chains [1][2]. - The consensus view in the stock market suggests that a 25% tariff impact can be managed, but the implications of a 200% tariff are still uncertain due to the transition period and lack of official announcement [2][3]. - Companies manufacturing pharmaceuticals outside the US will likely need to revise their supply chains, potentially relying on contract development and manufacturing organizations (CDMOs) in the short to medium term [3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report highlights that if a 200% tariff is imposed, certain companies will be significantly affected based on their current supply chain conditions, but it is premature to assess the full impact due to the transition period [2][3]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce is investigating national security concerns regarding pharmaceutical imports, which may delay the announcement of tariffs until after the investigation is completed [2]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Japanese pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Sumitomo Pharma primarily manufacture for the U.S. market within the U.S., while others may need to adjust their supply chains significantly [3]. - The transition period allows companies to build up inventories, potentially extending the response time to tariff implementations [3]. CDMO Business Implications - CDMOs with manufacturing bases in the U.S. are expected to see increased demand, particularly companies like Fujifilm Holdings, which has existing contracts for contract manufacturing of antibody drugs [7]. - Fujifilm's long-term outlook for CDMO sales is already factored into its projections, indicating that any new contracts may not significantly alter its financial outlook unless driven by increased demand or pricing power [7].

Investment Rating - The stock rating for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd is Equal-weight [4] - The industry view is Attractive [4] Core Insights - Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Ltd reported preliminary profit for 1H25 of Rmb2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56-68%, aligning with consensus estimates [1][2] - The net profit for Q2 2025 is estimated to be Rmb1.35-1.55 billion, reflecting an 18-35% year-on-year increase and an 8-24% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The substantial profit growth is attributed to the production from the Huafei project, stable operations and cost savings from the Huayue project, increased self-sufficiency in raw materials, rising cobalt prices, and improved operational efficiency [2] Financial Projections - The expected EPS for fiscal years ending in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 are Rmb2.05, Rmb1.34, Rmb1.42, and Rmb2.00 respectively [4] - Revenue projections for the same fiscal years are Rmb65,936 million, Rmb63,642 million, Rmb66,235 million, and Rmb70,900 million respectively [4] - The company is anticipated to benefit from rising cobalt prices in 2H25, which have increased approximately 7% since the DRC announced an extension of the cobalt export ban [3]

Doug Anmuth Bryan Smilek (1-212) 622-6571 (1-212) 622-8886 douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com bryan.smilek@jpmorgan.com Cory Carpenter Neeraj Kookada (1-212) 270-8125 (1-212) 622-0270 cory.carpenter@jpmorgan.com neeraj.s.kookada@jpmorgan.com Dae Lee Daniel Pfeiffer (1-415) 315-8500 (1-212) 622-0161 dae.k.lee@jpmorgan.com daniel.pfeiffer@jpmchase.com Equity Research J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Monday, July 07, 2025 Global Internet Valuations China U.S. Andre Chang (86-21) 6106 6362 andre.ch.chang@jpmorgan.com Japan ...

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, particularly for Chinese solar stocks, especially polysilicon players such as Tongwei, Daqo, GCL Poly, and Xinte, which saw share price increases of 28-36% from June 30 to July 8, compared to HSI +0.3% and SSE Composite +1.5% [2][6]. Core Insights - The central government has increased its focus on disorderly competition within the solar industry, indicating a shift in regulatory attention [2][6]. - There are execution risks due to weak demand, dominance of private firms in the market, and resistance from local governments [2][6]. - The report highlights potential uncertainties in the implementation of supply-side reforms, despite the government's heightened focus on the industry [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The solar module industry is experiencing involution-style competition, as noted by People's Daily [6]. - The Central Financial Commission has taken steps to curb unregulated low-price competition, with PV being one of the highlighted industries [6]. - A forum chaired by the MIIT Minister with top PV firms and the China PV Industry Association occurred on July 3, indicating ongoing discussions about industry challenges [6]. Demand and Supply - PV demand is expected to decline in the second half of 2025 due to a policy node in May, with 198GW of solar capacity added in the first five months of 2025 [6][11]. - The solar manufacturing value chain in China is largely dominated by private firms, with significant new capacity built under local government investment promotion from 2022 [6]. - High polysilicon inventory levels exceed 300kt, equivalent to over 100GW or more than four months of demand [6]. Industry Consolidation - GCL and Tongwei have suggested potential consolidation in the polysilicon industry through the formation of a production capacity acquisition fund with other top players [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for MediaTek with a price target of NT$1,888, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of NT$1,355 [5][18][39]. Core Insights - The report expresses optimism regarding the timing and revenue contribution of Google's TPU project, projecting that MediaTek could recognize over $1 billion in revenue from this project in 2026, primarily in Q4 [2][3][10]. - The Meta MTIA project is viewed as a bull case with a 50% chance of success, which could elevate the price target to NT$2,600 if won [3][18][33]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - MediaTek's revenue is projected to grow from NT$530.6 billion in 2024 to NT$809.96 billion by 2027, with net income expected to increase from NT$106.4 billion to NT$212.8 billion over the same period [5][46]. - The EPS is forecasted to rise from NT$66.93 in 2025 to NT$133.68 by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][46]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is anticipated to reach $1 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors driving significant growth, projected to reach $480 billion [17][19]. - The cloud AI ASIC market is expected to grow to $50 billion by 2030, presenting substantial opportunities for MediaTek and other Asian ASIC vendors [17][19]. Competitive Positioning - MediaTek is positioned as a strong competitor in the AI ASIC space, leveraging its operational efficiency and cost advantages, which are critical for customer total cost of ownership [7][11]. - The report highlights MediaTek's potential to gain market share in high-end smartphone markets with its Dimensity 9400 flagship SoC, supported by ecosystem partnerships [35][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for AIA Group, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the insurance sector [30]. Core Insights - AIA Group has shown strong resilience in agent productivity, achieving a 3% year-over-year growth in the number of MDRT agents, contrasting with a decline in many of its peers [1][3]. - Asian insurers dominate the global MDRT rankings, contributing 89% of the top 100, although there has been a slight decrease in recognition compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The report attributes AIA's positive growth to three main factors: raised MDRT recognition criteria, regulatory discouragement in China, and tightening regulations in Vietnam [1][3]. Summary by Sections MDRT Statistics - The 2025 MDRT statistics reveal that AIA Group is one of the few multinational insurers to maintain positive growth in agent numbers, with a notable 9% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 [3][4]. - The overall number of MDRT members among the top five multinational insurers increased to 36,903, with AIA leading the growth compared to peers like Metlife and Prudential, which experienced declines of -12% and -17% respectively [4][9]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights that the criteria for MDRT recognition have been strengthened post-pandemic, impacting the overall recognition rates for many insurers in Asia [3][4]. - Regulatory changes in China and Vietnam are noted as significant factors affecting MDRT membership and recognition, with the former discouraging participation and the latter tightening regulations [1][3]. Financial Metrics - AIA's stock is currently trading at 1.4x FY25E P/EV and 12.8x FY25E P/OPAT, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [1][4].