2Q25 Outlook: Finding Certainty In Uncertainty We expect tariff impact to weigh on the materials space in 2Q25. We prefer gold, cement, building materials and steel for 2Q25, and in 2H25 metals-related stocks may outperform when further stimulus comes through. April 22, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Materials | Asia Pacific Demand showed signs of recovery in 1Q, outlook for 2Q is uncertain due to tariff concerns: Multiple signs show demand seems to have bottomed in China in 2024. 3M 2025 domestic excavator sales ...

Funding is never an issue for ODM/EMS to add assembly capacity in a new country, but supply chain support, operational skills, and logistics infrastructure will take time to build. Server assembly capacity is diversified and what's in Mexico and the US could meet US market demand. However, the production capacity for Apple hardware devices and NBs remains >70% located in China currently. That said, regional production is needed but it will raise overall production costs. Our analysis shows that the FOB pric ...

Topchoice - A Hidden uncertainties behind the fragile smile of China's dental giant: Initiate with UW We initiate coverage of Topchoice with an UW rating and a Dec-25 PT of Rmb34. Topchoice is one of the top dental chains in China, operating 84 medical facilities and equipped with ~3,100 dental chairs as of 3QFY24. We see dental services facing short- and long-term challenges, leading to profitability pressure. Our FY25E/26E EPS is 8%/10% below consensus. The prospect of weaker-than-expected earnings growth ...

Priced as of April 17, 2025 In this note, we include the latest comp sheet and valuation metrics for global automotive OEMs (page 3), auto parts suppliers (page 5), auto auction service providers (page 13), tire manufacturers (page 14), auto rentals (page 15), and auto dealers (page 16). J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 21 April 2025 Autos Valuation Comp Sheet Autos & Auto Parts Ryan Brinkman AC (1-212) 622-6581 ryan.j.brinkman@jpmorgan.com Rajat Gupta AC (1-212) 622-6382 rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.c ...

April 22, 2025 03:23 AM GMT Apple, Inc. | North America Survey Says: Stronger Than Expected Apple Intelligence Perception and iPhone Upgrade Rates M Amidst a challenging fundamental backdrop, our March '25 AlphaWise US iPhone survey screens positively and highlights 1) better-than-expected Apple Intelligence adoption, perception, willingness to pay, 2) record N12M US upgrade intentions, and 3) strong interest in a thin and foldable iPhone. Key Takeaways While the tariff backdrop creates myriad uncertainties ...

April 21, 2025 04:13 AM GMT Semiconductors | North America Weekly: Earnings Week 1 (TXN, LRCX, INTC) We preview the first set of earnings; we don't see big near term surprises but assessing longer term tariff impact will be key. TXN (UW, reporting after the market close on Wednesday, April 23): Expect in line results and outlook, with margins and cash flow still under some pressure. The recovery from a two year inventory correction is likely to be muted by tariff impact, but near term we don't expect major ...

Global Markets Strategy 21 Apr 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard | Wendy Liu AC | | --- | | (852) 2800 1087 | | wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan | | B ...

April 22, 2025 09:00 PM GMT China Healthcare | Asia Pacific SMID-Cap CRO/CDMOs: Impacts from Potential Tariffs and FDA Animal Testing Rules Direct CMO tariff exposure of major China CRO/CDMO names is no more than 10%, while increasing macro uncertainties beyond tariffs could dampen funding beta. FDA proposal to phase out animal testing has limited impact on our covered pre-clinical CROs in 2025. Key Takeaways Higher tariffs + Increasing uncertainty = Softer funding beta + more cautious R&D budget: The direc ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is Underweight [2][8][76] Core Views - The report indicates that Wanhua Chemical is facing multiple geopolitical headwinds, including US export tariffs on MDI, China's import tariffs on ethane, and an anti-dumping investigation by the US, which are expected to negatively impact volume, price, and earnings [8][12][13] - The price target for Wanhua Chemical has been reduced to Rmb51.00, reflecting a 5% decrease based on updated financial data and a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8][12] Summary by Sections Price Target and Earnings Estimates - The price target for Wanhua Chemical is set at Rmb51.00, down from Rmb54.00, based on a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is revised to Rmb3.42, down from Rmb3.61 [2][8] Financial Performance and Projections - The report projects a decline in net profit by 5% for 2025 and 6% for 2026, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates [5][8] - MDI prices are expected to be Rmb12,305 per ton in 2025, with unit gross profit projected at Rmb2,892 per ton [16] Market Conditions and Risks - The geopolitical risks are anticipated to exert downward pressure on MDI prices and spreads, affecting overall earnings visibility for non-MDI products [8][12][13] - The report highlights that the valuation is no longer appealing, contributing to the Underweight rating [8][12]

We are also watchful about Hainan's free-trade-zone policy and impact to duty-free operators. The Hainan government has not yet released any details, but we expect it to do so later this year as Central government targets opening the FTZ in 2025. Recap of March-2025 Hainan offline DF trends: Avg daily sales Rmb94mn (-5% YoY vs -13% YoY in 2M25); Daily shoppers 17.7K (-26% YoY) and spending per shopper Rmb6.5K (+28%). The ASP growth could be helped by more electronic product sales which might not translate t ...