Asia Pacific Equity Research 22 April 2025 China Food Delivery Thoughts on JD's entrance: Evaluating impact on market share and financials for Meituan and JD Meituan/JD shares have underperformed the benchmark KWEB in the past month (-19%/-18% vs. -15%) due mostly to investor concerns about JD's aggressive entrance to China's food delivery market and a potential reaction from Meituan, in our view. We expect insignificant change to the current market structure from JD's entrance, where Meituan/Ele.me hold a ...

April 21, 2025 10:34 PM GMT Wistron Corporation | Asia Pacific Hopper GPU baseboards may face downside Last week, Nvidia filed an 8k to disclose that the US government has enacted new licensing requirements for shipments of the H20 product "and any other circuits achieving the H20's memory bandwidth, interconnect bandwidth, or combination thereof" pertaining to China or companies headquartered in China along with any D:5 countries. The U.S. government also informed Nvidia that the license requirement will b ...

April 21, 2025 12:31 AM GMT Netflix Inc | North America Less Is More? Remain OW, Top Pick | What's Changed | | --- | Netflix Inc (NFLX.O) From To Price Target $1,150.00 $1,200.00 Reaction to earnings Strengthens our thesis Modest upside Modest revision higher Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS The first quarter without reporting net adds forces us, to some extent, to see the bigger picture in its results. Netflix, as measured in quarters, is a pr ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co Ltd. is Overweight [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that China's Aerial Working Platform (AWP) sales have shown a narrowing decline, with a 10% year-over-year decrease in March, totaling 18.2k units, compared to a 20% decline in the first three months of 2025. Domestic sales fell by 22% year-over-year to 8.8k units, while exports increased by 6% year-over-year to 9.4k units [1]. - Dingli has suspended shipments to the US due to tariffs but anticipates growth in non-US markets [1]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, AWP sales in China decreased by 10% year-over-year to 18.2k units, with domestic sales down 22% to 8.8k units and exports up 6% to 9.4k units [1]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co Ltd. is a leading supplier of aerial working platforms in China, making the AWP sales volume a significant indicator for its share price [4]. Financial Metrics - The price target for Dingli is set at Rmb70.00, indicating a potential upside of 77% from the closing price of Rmb39.48 on April 18, 2025 [6]. - The company has a market capitalization of Rmb19,991 million and an enterprise value of Rmb15,647 million [6]. - Projected revenues for the fiscal years ending in December are Rmb6,312 million for 2023, Rmb8,450 million for 2024, Rmb10,020 million for 2025, and Rmb11,487 million for 2026 [6]. Valuation - The report applies a P/B multiple of 2.8x to the 2025 estimated book value per share, which aligns with its average P/B over the past three years, reflecting similar ROE levels and earnings growth [8].

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist April 21, 2025 04:01 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock Related reports: Growth Cut Despite Stimulus amid Tariff Shock (15 April 2025) Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. M China's Growth to Slow to 4.2% in 2025 a ...

April 21, 2025 04:33 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data A weekly summary of key cross-asset monitors, data, moves, and models tracking sentiment, fund flows, and positioning. Key highlights from last week: Exhibit 1: Morgan Stanley forecasts | | As of Apr | Q4 2025 Forecast | Q4 2025 Return Forecast Volatility | | Base Case | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 18, 2025 | Base | Base | | Return/Risk | | Equities | | | Total Returns | | | | S&P 500 | 5,283 | 6,500 ...

Heading into 1Q earnings season, we believe the market continues to discount the anticipated/inevitable global demand slowdown driven by the U.S. tariffs/trade- related dynamics and remain selective on stocks (see our note we published last week on tariffs/trade here). We expect 1Q earnings season to kick off the negative earnings revision cycle with overall forward 12-month EPS estimates to be potentially cut by ~15-25% over the next two-three earning seasons, which we believe should help the semi stock bo ...

April 17, 2025 02:04 PM GMT Fuyao Glass Industry Group | Asia Pacific Solid 1Q Boosted by FX Tailwinds; All Eyes on US/China Demand Post-tariff Reaction to earnings Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Fuyao's 1Q25 earnings rose 46% YoY and 1% QoQ to Rmb20.3bn, above market expectations, thanks to higher finance income of Rmb350mn vs. Rmb69mn in 1Q24 amid USD ap ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Laopu Gold with a price target of HK$1,111.00 for December 2025, reflecting a significant upside potential from the current price of HK$804.00 [2][10][28]. Core Insights - Laopu Gold aims to become the No.1 gold brand globally, with plans to expand its boutique network significantly, targeting six to eight new boutiques in 2025, following seven new openings in 2024, bringing the total to 36 [1][10]. - The company has set a long-term sales target of Rmb1 billion per shopping mall, with expectations of achieving over Rmb300 million in 2024, driven by strong sales momentum and enhanced product offerings [1][10]. - Laopu Gold's market share in the heritage gold segment is currently at 2%, with expectations of substantial growth due to the fast-growing market and store expansion opportunities [10][28]. - The report highlights that over 60% of sales in 2024 are expected to come from new customers, indicating a low penetration rate among target customers [1][10]. - Despite potential negative impacts on gross profit margin (GPM) due to rising gold prices, the company plans to mitigate these through advance procurement and strategic price increases [1][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for 2025 have been increased from Rmb16,070 million to Rmb18,780 million, and for 2026 from Rmb22,288 million to Rmb26,172 million [3][9]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 59% and an EPS growth of 65% over the period from 2025 to 2027 [10][28]. Market Expansion and Product Innovation - Laopu Gold is focusing on expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets, with plans for boutiques in cities like Tokyo, Osaka, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok [1][10]. - The company is also emphasizing product innovation, with around 40% of its products expected to contribute to 70% of sales, indicating a strong focus on diversifying its product offerings [1][10]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - The report projects a gross margin of 41.2% for 2024, with expectations of maintaining a bottom line GPM of 40% [1][10]. - The DCF-based valuation suggests a price target of HK$1,111, implying a 33x forward P/E for the next 12 months [11][29].

April 17, 2025 06:27 PM GMT Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd. | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update What's Changed | Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd. (600519.SS) | From | To | | --- | --- | --- | | Price Target | Rmb1,742.00 | Rmb1,810.00 | | Bull Case | Rmb2,177.00 | Rmb2,262.00 | | Base Case | Rmb1,742.00 | Rmb1,810.00 | | Bear Case | Rmb1,005.00 | Rmb1,045.00 | | Updated Components | | | | EPS | | | | Investment Thesis | | | | Bull Base Bear Scenarios | | | | Risks to Price Target / Rating | | | | Investment Drivers ...