高于市场预期的关税上调幅度可能导致短期市场波动：㏇2-3月ⱶ征20％关税的㓹 础上，美㎁⹒宣布对中㎁ⱶ征34％的关税，这使得美㎁对中㎁的ⱶ权关税税率达 ⮽65％，是全球最高关税税率之一。随着市㏜试㎂消关税对经济㘍长的潜㏇影 ⿏以⹖中美紧张局ⲡ⺎能进一步ⶍ级的影⿏，我们认为短期内波ⲁ性⺎能会保持 ㏇高位。 A股市场定位更佳，应被视为进行对冲或分散投资的选择：正如我们㏇最新报⼔ China Market-Wise：Green Fields Beyond the Woods； Raise Index Targets（2025 年3月25日）中所讨论的，㏇中美紧张局ⲡ大幅ⶍ级（ⴎ括过度提高关税）的情⬅ 下，中㎁ A 股市㏜将比中㎁离岸市㏜㚲于更有⮵的㏐位/波ⲁ更小，㍕为大多数 A 股投资者是散户而且离岸投资渠道相对有限，对这种ⲁ态不那么敏感。A 股 市㏜与全球市㏜的相关性也最低。因此，我们建议投资者在中国配置中更多地配 置内地市场，或在全球投资组合中逐步地调高中国A股的配置。 对上市公司盈利的直接影响可能小于对整体宏观经济增长的拖累：我们的中㎁经 济㍙队预计，中㎁经济㘍长⮽的拖累会比2018-19年期间更大，㍕为：（ ...

April 7, 2025 01:36 AM GMT Daniel K Blake Equity Strategist Daniel.Blake@morganstanley.com +65 6834-6597 Jonathan F Garner Equity Strategist Jonathan.Garner@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8172 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ M Update Bear case targets and downside to recession trough valuations We highlight our bear case targets, including earnings and valuation assumptions that reflect a global recession scenario. Market allocation in di ...

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April 3, 2025 11:25 AM GMT China Market-Wise | Asia Pacific M Idea How to position amid sharp US tariff hike We expect higher near-term market volatility and believe the A- share market is better positioned for hedging and diversification purposes. The overall impact on earnings should be smaller compared to the economy. We highlight 30 companies with highest revenue exposure to the US. volatility: The announced 34% additional tariffs on China by the US today, on top of the 20% tariff hikes in Feb-Mar, brin ...

April 3, 2025 08:19 AM GMT 中国经济研究 | Asia Pacific 关税冲击远超2018-19年 要点 与2018-19年相比，此次美国关税的冲击将更大、更广：继⯥两个月的20%关税之 ⺵，美㎁此次⹒㵨㵒ⶕ关税提高了34%。中㎁目⯥面临的美㎁有效关税达⮽65%， 为美㎁关税ⱶ征最高的㎁㳄之一。关税㵨直接影⿏中㎁㵒美，⺱时，美㎁㵒 其他㎁㳄的全面关税也㵨拖累全球贸易，给中㎁带来的间接影⿏不㳋㵸觑。 关税降级的门槛较高：美㎁的一些盟⹘⺎以较为㳋易㏐通过政策让步来降低关 税。而㵒于中㎁来说，通过谈⮮来降低关税的难度较㛻，这主要是㍕为美㎁㵒ⶕ ⱶ征关税的战略目标㏇于保护本㎻敏感行业并促使⯆造业㍑流。 政策刺激或仅能抵消部分关税冲击：我们认为，⬀策㷄或㵨ⱶ快两会政策落㏐。 若经济㘍速⹖民生⹛馈迅速恶，⮟或㵨㏇未来数月触更㛢的政策⯌激，ⴎ括 全㎁性的生育补贴以⹖消费⿁以旧换新的扩㳋。然而，这些政策或仅能抵消部⮇ 关税⫿。因此，我们全年4.5%的实际GDP预测面临着下行风险。 This translated report is made available for convenience on ...

April 3, 2025 01:13 AM GMT US Public Policy, Global Economics, & Global Macro Strategy | North America Tariff Takeaways The US meaningfully increased its average effective tariff rate. Today's White House announcement included a baseline 10% tariffs on all imports, in addition to incremental tariffs on a country-by-country basis. | M | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Update | | | | | | | April 3, 2025 01:13 AM GMT | US Public Policy, Global Economics, & Global Macro | Morgan Stanley & Co. ...

April 2, 2025 11:15 PM GMT Asia Economics | Asia Pacific M Update Higher tariffs, larger drag on growth coming Key Takeaways This is our preliminary take on the implications for Asia given overnight tariff announcements. The US has unveiled reciprocal tariffs of 10% at minimum for almost all economies, with much higher rates of up to 46% also being announced. This reaffirms our view that Asia is the most exposed to tariffs, given most of the region runs a trade surplus with the US. We think the initial focu ...

更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 Weekly Asia Hedge Fund Update Morgan Stanley Asia PB Content April 1, 2025 Eric Chiang, Vice President Morgan Stanley | Prime Brokerage International Commerce Centre | 1 Austin Road West Hong Kong Phone: +852 2239-7589 Eric.A.Chiang@morganstanley.com Jonathan Fung Morgan Stanley | Prime Brokerage International Commerce Centre | 1 Austin ...

October 16, 2024 04:01 AM GMT US Multi-Industry | North America US Reshoring Flame Has Been Lit For $10tn Opportunity With structural tech diffusion reducing the benefit of low-cost labor, we think the scales are tilting back towards domestic production following ~40 years of outsourcing. We believe the US is entering the early innings of re-Industrialization, a multi-decade opportunity that we size at $10tn and believe will restore growth to the US Industrial economy following 20+ years of stagnation. The ...

January 21, 2025 12:00 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America Sagan's Prophecy As AI moves from the digital world to the atomic world, great fissures and imbalances in US manufacturing capability and supply chain security are becoming clearly visible. Monumental capital flows must fund a new era of intelligent machines made in America. The great re-architecting has begun. In one of the last books published before his death, Carl Sagan prophesied a vision of the future of the United States: "I have a foreboding of ...