Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Market optimism is increasing due to anticipated trade deals, despite a modest contraction in real GDP of 0.3% in Q1, driven by strong imports and a robust private domestic demand growth of 3.0% [1] - Employment data shows an increase of 177k jobs in April, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.2%, although future labor market data may weaken due to tariff impacts [1][29] - The report anticipates three stages of tariff impacts: front-loading of demand, increased uncertainty, and eventual supply/demand reduction [15] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Real GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, primarily due to surging imports, while private domestic demand rose by 3.0% [16] - Strong consumption and investment in Q1 may be partially attributed to tariffs, with unit auto sales remaining high at 17.27 million in April [17][19] - The report forecasts a 1.4% increase in GDP for Q2, supported by front-loading activity and a decline in imports [19][73] Labor Market - The hiring rate was stable at 3.4% in March, but job openings fell, indicating potential future weakness in the labor market [26] - Continuing jobless claims reached their highest post-pandemic level, suggesting a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4-4.5% in May [31] - April employment data reflects conditions prior to the April 2 tariff announcement, and subsequent data may show the effects of weak hiring [29] Tariff Impacts - The report outlines that the immediate impact of tariffs has increased uncertainty, leading to a pause in investment and hiring plans [25] - Tariffs on many goods from China are significantly high, which is expected to reduce imports and impact related sectors like manufacturing and transportation [34][40] - Planned layoffs due to tariffs have started to rise, indicating potential future job losses in manufacturing and other sectors [41] Inflation and Price Trends - Core PCE inflation was stronger than expected in Q1, with a slowdown to 2.6% YoY in March, and the report anticipates that inflation will largely be concentrated in goods prices [46][47] - The report suggests that the timing and magnitude of tariff-related impacts on the economy are difficult to estimate, with inflation likely to rise as tariffs remain high [49][78] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of 125 basis points this year, starting in June, contingent on labor market data weakening [49][50] - The Fed is likely to maintain policy rates in the upcoming meeting, focusing on inflation and labor market conditions [50][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi is "Buy" with a target price of HK$73.50, implying an expected share price return of 47.1% [3][24]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 April delivery exceeded 28,000 units, slightly lower than March's 29,000+ due to fewer working days in April. Year-to-date EV delivery is estimated to exceed 104,000 units, representing 30% of its 2025 target of 350,000 units [1]. - The company plans to increase its store count from 269 to 298 by adding 29 stores and expanding into 8 new cities in April 2025 [1]. - The upcoming catalysts include the 1Q25 results, 2Q25 guidance, Mi 15S, AI smart glasses, and YU7 launch [1]. Financial Valuation - Xiaomi shares are valued at HK$73.50 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation based on 2026 estimates, with a P/E multiple of 27.1x for core businesses and 1.5x for smart EV sales, reflecting a strong growth outlook [12]. - The target price corresponds to a 30x adjusted EPS for 2026 [12]. Market Context - Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately HK$1,296,059 million (US$167,113 million) [3]. - The report indicates a solid long-term visibility for Xiaomi's business segments, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services [12].

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the companies mentioned in the report are as follows: AAC Technologies Holdings (1), BYD (1), NavInfo (3), Thunder Software Technology (3), TSMC (1), Xiaomi (1) [9] Core Insights - The Shanghai Auto Show highlighted the ongoing developments in the automotive technology sector, with key players like AAC, Xiaomi, ThunderSoft, and NavInfo showcasing their latest innovations and strategies [1] - AAC is expanding its automotive product offerings, including a new motor system, and has received projects from both domestic and international customers [2] - Xiaomi's YU7 launch is scheduled for June/July, with a significant backlog of over 200,000 SU7 orders, indicating strong demand [3] - ThunderSoft is focusing on its Cockpit+AI solution, which is expected to drive growth amid increasing competition from consumer electronics ODMs [5] - NavInfo is transforming into a tier-1 solution provider, with significant R&D investments aimed at enhancing its smart driving and smart cockpit capabilities [6] Summary by Company AAC Technologies - AAC showcased its automotive products for the first time, including acoustic, haptic, optics, and MEMS inertial sensors, and has secured projects from NEV customers [2] - The company is diversifying its business from smartphones to enhance growth potential in the automotive sector [2] Xiaomi - Xiaomi's presence at the auto show was less prominent compared to previous years, but the YU7 launch remains on track, with a substantial order backlog for the SU7 model [3] - The upcoming earnings report in Q1 2025 and new product launches could serve as catalysts for the company's stock [3] ThunderSoft - ThunderSoft introduced its AquaDriveOS and Cockpit+AI solutions, which are expected to meet the growing demand for smart vehicle technologies [5] - The company anticipates a pickup in smart drive demand in Q1 2025, despite intensifying competition [5] NavInfo - NavInfo aims to position itself as a new tier-1 provider with capabilities in both hardware and software, supported by a strong AI infrastructure [6] - The company has secured significant projects for its basic driving and smart cockpit solutions, indicating robust demand for its offerings [6] Industry Trends - Supply chain concerns are affecting the adoption of AD/ADAS technologies, but the long-term trend remains positive [1] - The localization of automotive chips in China is progressing, with NEV makers moving towards higher computing power requirements for future smart driving needs [8] - Recent regulations from MIIT are impacting the promotion of autonomous driving technologies, leading to a shift in focus towards ADAS solutions [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China TransInfo Technology is "Sell" with a target price of Rmb5.1, indicating an expected share price return of -39.5% and a total return of -39.2% [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a mixed performance in 1Q25, with revenue increasing by 2% year-over-year to Rmb1.6 billion, which was 18% above Bloomberg consensus estimates. However, the operating profit missed expectations, resulting in an operating loss of Rmb77 million [1][2]. - The gross margin expanded by 0.6 percentage points year-over-year to 29.7%, but this was still 4.6 percentage points below consensus estimates. Operating expenses were flat year-over-year at Rmb555 million, which was 34% higher than expected [1][2]. - Net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb221 million, significantly exceeding consensus estimates by 101%, primarily due to a gain from a fair value change in investments amounting to Rmb302 million [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was Rmb1.609 billion, 17.9% higher than consensus estimates and 1.8% higher year-over-year. Gross profit was Rmb478 million, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [2][5]. - The operating loss of Rmb77 million resulted in an operating margin of -4.8%, which was 8.7 percentage points below consensus expectations [2][5]. - The net income of Rmb221 million marked a significant recovery from a net loss of Rmb58 million in the same quarter last year [2][5]. Valuation - The target price of Rmb5.1 is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.0x for the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, aligning with the five-year sector average [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on Technology and upgrades Autos to Overweight within Cyclical Value, while Underweighting Construction, Energy, Telecoms, and Utilities [2][7][24]. Core Insights - European equities have stabilized amid moderating trade rhetoric from the Trump Administration, but EPS downgrades are accelerating, with the Earnings Revision Index (ERI) at "recessionary" levels around -60% [2][4][3]. - Historically, such negative ERI readings have been contrarian buy signals, with European equities averaging 25% returns over the following 12 months [4][8]. - The ongoing Q1 reporting season shows 61% of Stoxx 600 companies exceeding EPS expectations, indicating low expectations overall [5][6]. Summary by Sections Earnings - The ERI for Europe is at -61%, the lowest since COVID, indicating widespread downgrades across sectors, with expectations of further downgrades averaging around 20% [15][16]. - Analysts expect a 6 percentage point drag on MSCI ACWI EPS growth due to proposed tariffs, aligning with a global EPS growth forecast of +4% for 2025 [6][27]. Market Views & Sector Strategy - The report suggests that trading conditions may remain volatile due to macro and policy uncertainties, but there is potential for a 5-10% upside for European equities by year-end [7][24]. - The report recommends a balanced approach with Overweights in Tech and Autos, while maintaining Overweights in traditional Defensives like Health Care and Personal Care [2][7]. Valuation - The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index trades at a 12-month forward PE of 13-14x, in line with its long-run median, while traditional Cyclicals are trading at the lowest valuations [85][86]. - The report notes that the current 27% discount of Europe to the US remains significant despite narrowing [85][86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shuanghuan Drive, with a target price set at Rmb42.0, indicating an expected share price return of 31.0% [4][7]. Core Insights - Shuanghuan's net profit for 2024 increased by 25% year-on-year to Rmb1.02 billion, aligning with market expectations, while the gross profit margin (GPM) expanded by 2.8 percentage points to 25.0%, surpassing both CitiE and consensus estimates [1][2]. - The growth in GPM is attributed to improvements in NEV gear and a reduced contribution from the low-GPM steel trading business, which saw a revenue decline of 46% year-on-year [1][2]. - The best-performing segments were plastic gear, which grew by 69% year-on-year, and NEV gears, which increased by 51% year-on-year [1][2]. Revenue and GPM by Product - Revenue growth in 2024 was notable in plastic gear (69% YoY) and NEV gear (51% YoY), while reducers and components and power tool gears also saw growth of 18% and 10% YoY, respectively [2]. - The steel trading business experienced the largest revenue decline due to a change in business model and efforts to mitigate bad debt risk [2]. - GPM improvements were observed across various segments, with plastic gear and passenger vehicle gear GPM expanding by 4.8 and 3.9 percentage points YoY, respectively [2]. Earnings Summary - The earnings summary indicates a projected net profit of Rmb1.026 billion for 2024, with a diluted EPS of Rmb1.202, reflecting a growth of 23.9% [3]. - The report forecasts continued earnings growth, with a projected net profit of Rmb1.279 billion for 2025, representing a 24.7% increase [3]. Valuation - Shuanghuan is valued at Rmb42.0 per share, based on a 28x 2025E EPS and a 25% earnings growth estimate for 2025 [20]. - The stock is considered to be trading at an undemanding valuation of approximately 21x 2025E P/E, which is attractive given the expected earnings growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Aier Eye Hospital Group due to missed expectations and lack of growth visibility [16][5][12]. Core Insights - Aier reported FY24 revenue of Rmb21 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of Rmb3.6 billion, reflecting a 5.9% year-over-year growth, which was below consensus estimates [1][5]. - The company experienced a significant contraction in gross profit margin in 4Q24, dropping to 38.0% from 47.0% in 4Q23, attributed to increased promotions and lower margins from newly consolidated hospitals [2][5]. - Management indicated that while there was strong growth in January and February 2025, the overall growth prospects for FY25 remain uncertain due to market conditions [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - FY24 net profit was Rmb3.6 billion, with a diluted EPS of Rmb0.385, representing a 5.9% growth [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to be driven primarily by small hospitals in the domestic market, while overseas expansion lacks visibility [4][5]. - The target price is maintained at Rmb7, with the stock trading at a P/E ratio of 28x for FY25, indicating a stretched valuation given the limited growth visibility [5][17]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY25E and FY26E have been fine-tuned, with projected revenues of Rmb23.1 billion and Rmb24.9 billion respectively [5][12]. - The report anticipates a core net profit of Rmb4.3 billion for FY25E, reflecting a 20.7% growth [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights uncertainty stemming from fluctuations in US trade policy, which has negatively impacted consumer and business sentiment in the US, while global sentiment remains relatively stable but low [1] - Despite the challenges, global retail sales and trade volumes have shown resilience, potentially due to preemptive purchasing ahead of tariff implementations [1] - Labor markets globally remain tight, and global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicate expansionary conditions in the first quarter [1] Summary by Sections Global Economic Indicators - US consumer and business sentiment has significantly declined due to rising tariff rates and trade policy uncertainty [1] - Global PMIs have generally remained above the expansion threshold of 50, indicating ongoing growth in manufacturing and services sectors [4][8][9] Retail Sales and Trade Volumes - Global retail sales value and volume have held up well, with year-over-year growth rates of 3.0% for value and 2.7% for volume [26][30] - Trade volumes have also shown positive growth, with a year-over-year increase of 5.7% for global trade [37] Labor Market Conditions - Labor markets are described as tight, with global unemployment rates projected to remain low [42] - Business confidence has seen fluctuations, but overall sentiment remains cautious [42][45] Inflation and Price Indices - Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is reported at 1.5% globally, with core CPI at 3.5% [54][55] - Input prices have shown an upward trend, indicating potential inflationary pressures in the near future [21][22] GDP and Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is projected at 4.6% for the global economy, with developed markets (DM) at 2.9% and emerging markets (EM) at 2.0% [26][30] - The report forecasts continued economic expansion, albeit at a moderated pace due to external uncertainties [41][74]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for IT budgets, with the US expected to grow by 2.7% and Europe by 2.3% over the next twelve months, despite some downward revisions due to tariff impacts [2][29]. Core Insights - Data modernization and Generative AI (GenAI) have surpassed cybersecurity as the top investment priority for CIOs, reflecting a shift in focus towards analytics and digital transformation projects [3][36]. - The overall macroeconomic sentiment has worsened slightly, with 49% of US respondents expecting a decline in macro conditions, which may impact business services budgeting [10][40]. - CIOs have revised their IT budgets down by an average of 3% due to tariff impacts, with 42% expecting no impact from tariffs on their budgets [24][46]. Sector Summaries Software - Data analytics/GenAI is now the top investment priority, followed by digital transformation projects and customer-facing applications [36][8]. - Spending on public cloud infrastructure is expected to grow by 6.6% over the next twelve months, indicating strong demand driven by GenAI workloads [24][62]. Cybersecurity - Cybersecurity has dropped to the second investment priority, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.3%, which is still higher than the overall IT budget growth [3][10]. - The emphasis on data analytics/GenAI is expected to benefit cybersecurity vendors that can secure GenAI deployments [11][19]. Communication Services and Infrastructure - Despite tariff uncertainties, the US budget for communication services remains resilient at 2.7%, with opportunities for digital transformation and GenAI adoption [10][23]. - Network infrastructure is expected to be negatively impacted by tariffs, ranking second among categories affected [10][49]. Hardware - Spending on PC storage and networking infrastructure is trending positively, while server spending is declining [27][28]. - A mixed recovery in IT hardware spending is noted, with 53% of respondents not expecting GenAI to impact their hardware budgets [28][91]. European Technology - European CIOs have shown increased caution, with a 3% negative impact on IT budgets due to tariffs, although growth expectations remain stable [24][33]. - Financial software and ERP applications are gaining prioritization, indicating resilience for companies like SAP [24][10]. GenAI Trends - Microsoft is the preferred vendor for GenAI investments, followed by Amazon, OpenAI, and Google, with a notable shift in budget allocation towards these technologies [4][67]. - 54% of CIOs expect GenAI investments to lead to a reduction in overall headcount within the next 1-2 years [26][75].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a conservative investment strategy focused on defensive stocks and sectors due to the anticipated double dip in Japanese stocks [1][4][35] Core Viewpoints - Japanese stocks are likely to experience a double dip in the short term, with potential for the next correction to fall below the recent bottom of TOPIX at 2,200 [2][3][19] - The report identifies three main risks contributing to this outlook: deterioration in US macroeconomic indicators, uncertainty in Japan-US tariff negotiations, and conservative initial guidance from companies during the FY3/25 earnings season [2][9][27] - A recovery in Japanese stocks may not occur until summer or later, contingent on specific conditions such as progress in tariff negotiations and aggressive monetary easing by central banks [27] Summary by Sections Short-term Risks - Japanese stocks currently lack upside momentum after a recent rebound to 2,500 from 2,200 [2][6] - The report highlights risks from US economic indicators, tariff negotiations, and conservative earnings guidance as key factors for the anticipated double dip [2][9][19] Market Correction Insights - The potential downside target for TOPIX is projected at 2,000, with a 12-month forward PER around 10x, aligning with historical downturn levels [3][19] - The report indicates that previous corrections of more than 10% have often led to double dips, particularly when rebounds do not exceed 50% of the initial correction [25][26] Defensive Investment Strategy - A focus on low-risk stocks, high EPS revisions, and strong balance sheets is recommended, as high-rated stocks are expected to underperform [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies likely to issue positive guidance and maintain dividends during the uncertain macroeconomic environment [35]