Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" with a target price of HK$688, implying a 32x/22x 2025E/26E PER [15] - The investment rating for CATL is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb362/share, implying a 24.5x 25E P/E and 19.4x 26E P/E [19] Core Insights - In March 2025, China EV battery installation reached 61.4 GWh, marking a 54% month-over-month and 56% year-over-year increase, with total installations for 1Q25 at 148.9 GWh, also up 54% YoY [1][2] - CATL's market share remained stable at 43% in 1Q25, while BYD's market share increased by 2 percentage points to 29% [2] - Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries continued to dominate the market with a 79% share in 1Q25, up 17 percentage points from 62% in 1Q24 [2][5] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - CATL is shifting towards the low-end market due to the rise of A-class passenger vehicles, which accounted for approximately 41% of battery installations in 1Q25, up from 25% in 2024 [8] - The combined market share of A-class and B-class vehicles rose to 66% in 1Q25, compared to 61% in 2024 [8] Company Performance - Xiaomi's battery demand surged to 6.67 GWh in 1Q25, with the SU7 model contributing over 2 GWh monthly since its launch in March 2024, while Huawei's battery installation volume fell by about 40% YoY to 2.2 GWh [12] - CATL's product mix saw A-class and B-class vehicles account for 50% of its offerings in 1Q25, compared to 29% in 1Q24 [8] Valuation Metrics - BYD's target price is derived using a PEG ratio of 1.0x based on a projected 32% NP CAGR from 2025 to 2027 [15][17] - CATL's valuation is based on a 15.0x 2025E EV/EBITDA, reflecting its historical average minus 0.25 standard deviation since listing [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GoerTek is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb25.000, indicating an expected share price return of 12.3% and an expected total return of 14.0% [4][12]. Core Insights - GoerTek announced its 2025 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP) with financial performance targets that remain unchanged from 2023. The revenue targets for 2025 and 2026 are significantly higher than CitiE and VAe estimates, while net profit targets are below those estimates, suggesting a conservative approach due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. - The ESOP will cover 6,302 employees, with an exercise price set at Rmb22.10, close to the latest closing price of Rmb22.27. This indicates a strategic move for employee retention amidst market volatility [3][4]. Financial Performance Targets - For 2025, GoerTek aims for a revenue of at least Rmb129.848 billion, which is 41% and 35% higher than CitiE and VAe estimates, respectively. The net profit target is set at Rmb2,611 million, which is 26% and 22% below the estimates [2][6]. - For 2026, the revenue target is set at Rmb154.879 billion, 59% and 46% higher than CitiE and VAe estimates, while the net profit target is Rmb3,047 million, 26% and 17% below the estimates [2][6]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated growth in 2025 is driven by the upgrade of MEMS microphones in AI smartphones, AI smart glasses, and non-iOS smart wearables. However, this growth may be partially offset by expected weak demand in game consoles and muted virtual reality (VR) demand [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shopify Inc is "Buy" with a high risk designation [3][15] - Current price is US$94.00 with a target price of US$135.00, indicating an expected share price return of 43.6% [3] Core Insights - Shopify management reported continued momentum from Q1 into Q2, with solid performance and some FX tailwinds expected [5] - There is a noted increase in entrepreneurship during uncertain times, which may benefit Shopify's business model [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in payment methods, with PayPal's rollout impacting gross margins, but overall payments are seen as a driver for adoption of other offerings [10] - AI is beginning to influence how consumers discover and shop, with Shopify aiming to enhance search results and product visibility [10] - The B2B segment is growing significantly, with over 109% growth, indicating a strong opportunity for Shopify [13] - The enterprise segment is also seeing increased momentum, with a robust deal pipeline [13] - Shopify's valuation is based on a target price of $135, derived from a forward EV/Sales multiple of approximately 10.5x FY28E [14] Summary by Sections Guidance - Management has factored in potential uncertainties related to tariffs and consumer spending, with a focus on the impact of a weaker USD on European revenues [5] Payments Evolution - The payments landscape is evolving, with a focus on expanding Shop Pay and integrating payments into more countries [10] AI Vision - AI is expected to provide net benefits for entrepreneurs, enhancing the overall Shopify experience without significantly altering the competitive landscape [10] B2B & Enterprise - The B2B segment is performing well, and enterprise conversations are accelerating, indicating a positive outlook for growth in these areas [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the thermal coal industry but indicates a revised near-term pecking order: gold > steel > cement > copper > aluminum > battery > thermal coal > lithium names [1]. Core Insights - The report tracks high-frequency on-ground demand trends in China, noting that market expectations for a demand recovery remain cautious [1]. - Weekly data from 100 sample thermal coal mines in China shows a thermal coal output of 12,648kt for the week of May 1-7, 2025, which is an increase of 0.7% week-over-week (WoW) and 8.1% year-over-year (YoY) [1]. - The overall utilization ratio of sample mines was 93.7%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point (ppt) increase WoW and a 7.1 ppt increase YoY [1]. - Total coal inventory in sample mines reached 3,495kt on May 7, 2025, marking a 1.2% increase WoW and a 14.8% increase YoY [2]. Production Summary - Thermal coal output from sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was reported as 2,989kt, 3,868kt, and 5,791kt respectively, with respective increases of 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.0% WoW, and 6.8%, 9.5%, and 7.9% YoY [1]. - Year-to-date (YTD) thermal coal output from sample mines was 228 million tonnes (mnt), reflecting a 3.0% increase YoY [1]. Utilization Summary - The utilization ratios for sample mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were 86.8%, 98.7%, and 94.3% respectively, with increases of 0.4 ppt, 0.6 ppt, and 0.9 ppt WoW, and 5.6 ppt, 8.6 ppt, and 6.9 ppt YoY [1]. Inventory Summary - Coal inventory in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia stood at 926kt, 837kt, and 1,732kt respectively, with changes of -0.3%, +1.0%, and +2.1% WoW, and increases of 7.1%, 13.6%, and 20.0% YoY [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the global shipping industry Core Insights - Capacity growth in the global shipping industry is projected at +8% year-over-year in June, a decrease from +10% in May [3] - Air freight rates have shown a growth of +2% year-over-year in April, down from +4% in March [1] - The overall number of scheduled sailings has increased by approximately +11% year-over-year [3] - The idling rate of vessels has decreased to 4.0% by TEU, compared to 4.5% the previous week, aligning with the ten-year average [3] - Schedule reliability improved to 57.5% in March, up from 54.5% in the previous month [3] Summary by Sections Capacity and Sailings - Capacity growth into the US is +4%, while growth into Europe is +10% [3] - Cancelled sailings decreased to 8.0% this week from 9.8% last week, which is higher than the previous year's level of 5.5% [3] Congestion and Reliability - Global congestion has decreased, with a seven-day moving average at 9.59 million TEU, down from 9.69 million TEU last week [4] - Congestion at the US West Coast decreased to 0.56 million TEU, while the US East Coast saw an increase to 0.72 million TEU [4] Market Dynamics - The China-US shipping lane experienced a volume drop of 30%-40% in April [8] - Shippers are currently in a "wait and see" mode, relying heavily on existing inventories across Canada, Mexico, and the US [8] - There is a significant impact expected on goods with no alternative to Chinese supply, with US consumers likely to absorb inflation if the situation does not resolve by summer [8] - If normalization occurs, demand growth is expected to catch up according to Maersk [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on lithium in the near term due to the ongoing downtrend in lithium prices and inventory buildup [1]. Core Insights - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide average selling prices (ASP) decreased by 4% and 2% week-over-week (WoW) respectively as of May 8, 2025 [2]. - Lithium production in China is projected to increase by 2% month-over-month (MoM) and 21% year-over-year (YoY) to approximately 75,500 tons in May 2025, which is lower than the growth rates of downstream cathode and battery production [1][2]. - The total inventory of lithium carbonate is around 130,000 tons, contributing to downward pressure on ASP due to increased imports from low-cost brine regions [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Prices - As of May 8, 2025, the ASP for lithium carbonate is quoted at Rmb62,300 per ton and for lithium hydroxide at Rmb66,500 per ton, down from Rmb68,000 and Rmb67,600 respectively on April 30, 2025 [2]. Production Data - China's lithium carbonate production increased by 27% WoW to 18,349 tons last week, with significant contributions from brine, lepidolite, spodumene, and recycling processes [2]. - The production output variations are attributed to the differing day counts during the Labor Holiday, affecting the weekly production figures [2]. Inventory Levels - The total inventory of lithium carbonate stands at 131,569 tons, with downstream players' inventory decreasing by 7%, while smelters' inventory increased by 7% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Apple, Inc. is "Buy" with a target price of $240, representing an expected total return of 22.8% from the current price of $196.25 [3][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Apple is experiencing a decline in search traffic on Safari for the first time, attributed to the rise of AI, and is actively seeking partnerships with AI providers to enhance Safari's search capabilities [1][2]. - Google pays Apple approximately $20 billion annually, which constitutes 36% of the revenue generated from Apple platforms, to remain the default search engine. The potential loss of this revenue could significantly impact Apple's earnings per share (EPS) [1][2]. - The report presents three scenarios for Apple's TAC revenue: a bull case with no changes, a base case with a reduction to one-third of current revenue, and a bear case with no TAC revenue at all, estimating EPS impacts of $1 to $1.5 in the base and bear cases respectively [1][5]. Revenue Projections - In the bull case scenario, total revenue for FY24 is projected at $391 billion, with Google TAC contributing $25 billion. EPS is estimated at $6.08 [5]. - In the base case scenario, total revenue is projected to decrease to $387 billion, with Google TAC revenue dropping to $10 billion, resulting in an EPS of $6.16 [5]. - In the bear case scenario, total revenue is expected to fall to $378 billion, with no contribution from Google TAC, leading to an EPS of $5.66 [5]. Valuation - The target price of $240 is based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28x on the FY2027 EPS estimate, which is an 8% premium to Apple's historical P/E levels, justified by expanding gross margins and a growing services sales mix [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global Inc with a target price of $270, indicating an expected share price return of 30.8% [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Coinbase's 1Q'25 results met expectations, with transaction revenue of $1,262 million, up 16% year-over-year but down 20% quarter-over-quarter. Subscription and services revenue also increased by 15% year-over-year [1][3]. - The acquisition of Deribit for $2.9 billion is noted as the largest M&A deal in the crypto sector, expected to enhance Coinbase's institutional flow and international scaling efforts [2]. - Coinbase's initiatives to drive utility include launching bitcoin-backed loans, expanding USDC use cases, and developing a B2B payment platform [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Transaction revenue was $1,262 million, matching expectations, with total transaction volume reported at $393 billion [3][10]. - Subscription-based revenue reached $698 million, up 86% year-over-year, with staking revenue at $197 million and stablecoin revenue at $298 million [8][10]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $930 million with a margin of 45.7%, exceeding estimates by 4% [8][10]. Strategic Developments - Coinbase's scaling initiatives in derivatives are emphasized, with a global derivatives trading volume of $800 billion in 1Q'25 and the launch of 24/7 BTC and ETH futures [1]. - The report suggests that Coinbase's stock performance will increasingly be linked to competitive M&A and product developments as the crypto landscape evolves [1]. Valuation Framework - The target price of $270 is based on a mid-teens five-year revenue CAGR, with assumptions of market share growth and subscription revenue yield expansion [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BeiGene is "Buy" with a target price of US$345.00, indicating an expected share price return of 48.5% [2][4]. Core Insights - BeiGene is transitioning to a global pharmaceutical player, officially changing its name to BeOne Medicines on May 23, 2025. The product Brukinsa has outperformed competitors Calquence and Imbruvica in quarterly sales in the US, contributing significantly to the overall growth of the BTKi class [1][2]. - The company achieved GAAP profitability in Q1 2025 and reiterated its FY25 guidance, projecting revenues between US$4.9 billion and US$5.3 billion, with GAAP operating expenses between US$4.1 billion and US$4.4 billion. The company has a robust pipeline of late- and early-stage catalysts that are expected to drive future growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, BeiGene achieved positive GAAP operating income of US$11 million, marking a significant milestone for the company [1]. - The company has set a revenue guidance for FY25 between US$4.9 billion and US$5.3 billion, with operating expenses projected between US$4.1 billion and US$4.4 billion [1]. Market Position - Brukinsa has surpassed both Calquence and Imbruvica in US quarterly sales, driving over 100% of the net 11% year-over-year growth in the BTKi class, while Imbruvica saw a contraction of approximately 13% and Calquence only a 3% growth [1]. - The transformation into a global pharmaceutical entity is expected to enhance BeiGene's market position and investor appeal [1]. Valuation - The target price of US$345.00 is derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, utilizing a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5% post-2032 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xiaomi, Cowell, DSBJ, AAC, Lens Tech, Will Semi, SG Micro, and Chroma ATE, indicating a positive outlook on their growth potential and market positioning [13][14][16]. Core Insights - The semiconductor and hardware sectors in China are experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from AI-related demand and localization efforts, while others face challenges due to geopolitical risks and inventory management [1][2][3]. - The report highlights a recovery in consumer electronics driven by China subsidies and AI deployment, with smartphone shipments growing by 1.5% YoY and PC shipments up by 4.9% YoY in 1Q25 [6][7]. - Inventory levels for downstream hardware are generally healthy, with certain segments like CCL, TV, and Networking & Server showing higher than average days inventory outstanding (DIO), while others like LED and Optical Fiber are at lower levels [3][6]. Summary by Sections 4Q24/1Q25 Results Wrap - Among 37 tech hardware and semiconductor stocks, 19% of results beat expectations in 4Q24, while 20% did so in 1Q25, with notable performance from U.S.-exposed AI names and China subsidy-driven companies [2][17]. - The report downgraded BYDE to Neutral due to fair valuation concerns and priced-in growth expectations for 2025 [2]. Inventory Tracker - The inventory tracker indicates that DIO for downstream hardware segments like LED and Optical Fiber is below the 5-year average, while segments like CCL and TV are above average [3]. - Upstream semiconductor DIO shows a decline in several categories, with Processor DIO reaching a 3-year high, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [3]. Sector Views and Top Picks - DSBJ is expected to achieve a 30% earnings CAGR from 2023-2026, driven by content value increases and market share gains [13]. - Xiaomi is highlighted for its long-term growth potential in EVs and smartphones, with a target price of HK$73.5 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation [14]. - Cowell is noted for its strong earnings visibility and expected share gains in the iPhone supply chain, with a target price of HK$27.0 [14]. - Lens Tech is anticipated to benefit from iPhone upgrades and new product rollouts, with a target price of Rmb25.0 [14]. Semiconductor Sector Insights - Chinese semiconductor makers are seeing improved inventory balances, with strong demand growth in domestic AI infrastructure and computing applications [16]. - Will Semi and SG Micro are positioned to benefit from localization trends and increasing demand for automotive components [16]. - Chroma ATE is expected to capture significant market share in AI-related orders, with a positive long-term outlook despite short-term market concerns [16].