V i e w p o i n t | 2. Negative news: 02 Jul 2025 23:09:28 ET │ 17 pages Asia Economics & Strategy Daily Strategy: EM Impact as 90d Tariff Deadline Nears; CN Data; IN Potential Trade Deal CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Strategy Comments: US -Vietnam trade deal – implications for rest of EM Asia as we approach the 90-day tariff exemption deadline; JP Economic Indicator Forecast; CN Data Preview; Potential India-US Trade Deal; KR Second Supplementary Budget May be Cut; July BoK MPB Preview; Upcoming events: EA Service P ...

Investment Rating - The report forecasts China's headline exports growth at 3.3% YoY for June [1][3]. Core Insights - Shipping to the US experienced volatility but has recently rebounded, indicating a tentative trough for US-China trade may hold [1][2]. - Overall cargo throughput in China grew at a slower pace, with a 0.6% YoY increase in the week ending June 29, down from 3.6% YoY the previous week [3][7]. - Container exports from China showed a steady increase of 15.4% YoY in the week ending June 27, supported by favorable base effects [3][11]. - Concerns are rising regarding the implications of the US-Vietnam trade deal and other trade negotiations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadlines [4]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - Exports to the US saw a decline of -6.0% YoY in the 15 days ending July 2, marking the first negative reading since early June [2][14]. - US seaborne bills for imports from China contracted -32.6% YoY in the week ending June 29, compared to -23.9% YoY the week prior [2][15]. Cargo Throughput - High-frequency indicators for overall cargo throughput remained steady, with a 0.6% YoY growth reported [3][7]. - Container departures from China to non-US destinations increased, indicating a shift in trade patterns [3][8]. Tariff Considerations - The report highlights the potential impact of narrowing tariff differentials between China and the Rest of the World (RoW), which could benefit China's direct exports to the US [4]. - Tighter rules on country of origin to curb transshipment are anticipated, with the implementation details being crucial to monitor [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The trade balance widened moderately in May to -$71.5 billion, with a drop in exports and imports remaining essentially flat [1][3] - Imports from China have significantly decreased due to high tariffs, but are expected to rebound as tariffs are reduced [1][8] - The overall effective tariff rate on imports to the US is approximately 9%, with China facing a much higher rate of 45% [4] Summary by Sections Trade Balance - The trade balance widened from -$60.3 billion in April to -$71.5 billion in May, with goods exports falling by 5.9% month-over-month and services exports decreasing by 0.2% [3] - The goods trade balance with China saw a 19.9% decline in exports and a 26.3% decline in imports [4] Imports and Exports - Imports from the EU rebounded by 6.9%, while imports from Canada and Mexico rose by 0.5% and 8%, respectively [4] - The drop in exports in May was less severe when accounting for falling gold exports, which had surged in April [6] Economic Impact - The widening trade balance in May is expected to mechanically weigh on GDP growth, but net exports may provide a substantial boost to GDP growth in Q2 due to the plunge in imports in April [5] - Imports of metals have declined significantly, which could negatively impact domestic production in sectors reliant on metal imports [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the aluminum industry but provides insights into demand trends and expectations for growth in specific sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - Aluminum demand in the solar power industry is expected to increase by 5-8% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, despite a recent decline in demand since mid-May [1][4]. - Overall aluminum demand in China is projected to grow by 3-4% YoY in 2025, with a weaker growth forecast for the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. - The demand for aluminum building profiles is anticipated to decrease by 8-10% YoY in 2025, showing a slight improvement from a 10% YoY decrease in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production - The weekly semi-aluminum products output was approximately 610kt in early July 2025, reflecting a 7.5% YoY increase, while the aluminum profile output was around 190kt, down 6% YoY [2]. - The weekly aluminum foil sheet output was about 370kt, showing a slight decline of 1% YoY [2]. Demand Trends - The aluminum demand from the solar power industry is primarily for industrial profiles and foil sheets, with a noted decrease in demand since mid-May, which has slowed into July [1][4]. - The apparent consumption of aluminum is expected to remain weak in July but may rebound in September and October, with potential growth in the automotive and electricity sectors [3]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels for aluminum profile mills are around 520kt, which is a 20% decrease YoY, with raw materials and finished goods inventories down 18% and 21% YoY, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a steady growth outlook for the industry, with a firm policy determination to meet the GDP target despite limited urgency for immediate policy changes [1][5]. Core Insights - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 49.7 in June, indicating a continued contraction for the third consecutive month, while non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, remaining in expansion [3][4]. - China's exports to the US showed signs of recovery in June, contributing to overall growth, while domestic demand, particularly in property sales, appears to be weakening [5][6]. - The report estimates real growth for 25H1 at 5.3% and anticipates only minor adjustments in monetary policy, including a 10 basis points rate cut and a 50 basis points RRR cut in 25H2E, alongside an additional RMB500 billion in quasi-fiscal stimulus [1][5]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7, slightly above market expectations, but still indicates contraction [3]. - The employment subindex showed deterioration, particularly among small enterprises, which fell to an eight-month low [3][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5, surpassing market expectations [4]. - The construction sector was a significant driver, with the construction PMI rebounding to 52.8, marking five consecutive months of expansion [6]. Export and Import Trends - New export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, suggesting a potential recovery after significant declines in previous months [6]. - Imports rose by 0.7 percentage points to a four-month high at 47.8, indicating improved production momentum [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinyi Solar is Neutral, with a target price of HK$2.30, indicating an expected share price return of -7.6% and an expected total return of -5.7% [4]. Core Insights - The solar glass industry is experiencing a significant supply cut of approximately 30% by PRC solar glass makers in July due to weak demand, high inventory levels, and low prices [1][2]. - Xinyi Solar's current solar glass capacity is fully utilized, and the company has no concrete plans for output cuts, depending instead on market demand [1][7]. - The average market prices for solar glass have dropped significantly, with 2.0mm and 3.2mm solar glass prices decreasing by 21.4% and 17.6% respectively in May-June [3]. - Xinyi Solar's net profit is forecasted to decline by 70% year-on-year to Rmb550 million in 1H25E, primarily due to price cuts, although a recovery is expected in the second half of the year [1][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solar glass production cut began in June, with a total daily capacity reduction of 6,870 tons, representing 7.0% of China's total operational capacity [2]. - The average inventory period for solar glass has increased from 27.0 days to 32.4 days as of June 26 [6]. Company Performance - Xinyi Solar's operational daily capacity remains at 23,200 tons, accounting for 22% of global solar glass capacity, and it may consider output reductions in 2H25E if demand weakens further [7]. - The company has seen improved demand for its solar glass produced in Malaysia, with prices approximately 30% higher than domestic sales [8]. Financial Forecast - The financial forecast for Xinyi Solar indicates a net profit of Rmb866 million for 2025E, with a projected P/E ratio of 23.8x and a P/B ratio of 0.7x [4][9]. - The expected diluted EPS for 2025E is Rmb0.095, reflecting a decline of 15.3% year-on-year [9].

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month price target for gold from $3,500/oz to $3,300/oz [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has declined by over $100/oz since the downgrade, currently trading just below the target of $3,300/oz, with expectations of continued price consolidation around $3,100-$3,500/oz in Q3 [1][2] - The passing of the OBBBA and upcoming trade deals are anticipated to shift the growth narrative and reduce concerns regarding US growth, which may weigh on gold demand [2][3] - The report suggests that the gold market deficit is peaking and may have already seen its highs at $3,500/oz in late April [1][3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - Gold price reached an all-time high close of approximately $3,432/oz on June 13, 2025, but has since moderated lower due to geopolitical de-escalation and improved global growth outlook, down about 5% from the mid-June peak [2][3] - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to return to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz by the second half of 2026, which is about 21-25% below the average forward prices for that period [3][10] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that declining investment demand from Q4 2025 could stem from improvements in global growth confidence as the stimulatory US budget takes effect and as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates towards a neutral policy [3][10] - The analysis indicates that the call on bar and coin stockholders will decline sharply in 2026, leading to a corresponding fall in prices [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on US equities with a base case S&P 500 target of 6300, indicating a bullish outlook for the second half of 2025 [8][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that while the S&P 500 has faced various geopolitical and economic challenges, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, supporting a bullish stance on growth sectors, particularly Information Technology and Communication Services [8][16]. - Structural growth drivers are highlighted as key differentiators in stock selection, with a focus on companies that can efficiently translate top-line growth into earnings amidst ongoing consumer and policy uncertainties [35][25]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely resume rate cuts in September, with a terminal rate projected between 3.0-3.25% by March 2026, which is expected to support growth sectors [54][53]. Summary by Sections Strategy - The report outlines a thematic approach focusing on operating leverage and structural trends that can drive earnings growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties [26][35]. - Analysts express a cautious optimism regarding the financial sector, with specific recommendations for banks and payment processors based on discounted valuations and transformational phases [67]. Equities - The report identifies a persistent but volatile bull market, with expectations for continued growth in the S&P 500 driven by strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, particularly in growth sectors [16][25]. - The report projects that the S&P 500 EPS outlook remains healthy, with a target refresh indicating a potential rise to 6500 by mid-2026 [16][11]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends an overweight position in growth sectors such as Communication Services and Information Technology, while being cautious on Consumer Discretionary and Materials [15][35]. - Specific stock recommendations include Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, which are expected to benefit from trends in Artificial Intelligence and Digital Leisure [36]. Economic Outlook - The global economic growth forecast is set at 2.5% for 2025, with tariffs expected to weigh on activity, leading to a cautious outlook for the second half of the year [43][38]. - Inflation is anticipated to diverge, with the US likely experiencing higher goods inflation due to tariffs, while other regions may see lower inflation rates [43][53]. Commodities - The report is bearish on oil prices, expecting them to decline to $60-65 per barrel by year-end, while gold prices are projected to fall significantly after a peak in 2025 [56][54]. - Aluminium is highlighted as a strong long-term investment opportunity due to its leverage to global growth and limited supply growth [56].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global trade due to the impact of tariffs, suggesting potential challenges for investment in related sectors [1]. Core Insights - The momentum in global trade driven by US frontloading has diminished, with a significant decline in US imports observed since March, particularly in pharmaceutical imports from Europe [1] - Approximately 70% of major economies have PMIs for new export orders below 50, indicating contraction in new export orders since April [1] - The restraining effects of tariffs on trade are becoming increasingly evident, with further impacts likely to materialize in the future [1] Summary by Sections Global Trade Dynamics - US imports through May have sharply retreated from their March highs, with pharmaceutical imports from Europe showing a marked decline [1] - New export orders for countries outside the US have contracted since April, reflecting a broader slowdown in global trade activity [1] Economic Indicators - The PMI for new export orders in June was reported at 48.9 for the global economy excluding the US, indicating a contraction [5] - The US PMI for new export orders was slightly better at 51.0, suggesting a marginal expansion compared to the global average [9] Trade Order Trends - The divergence between exports and imports is highlighted, with global imports rising significantly due to increased precious metal imports to the US, which are not reflected in export figures [54][55]

Investment Rating - The report rates Innovent shares as "Buy" with a target price raised to HK$90 from HK$60, indicating an expected share price return of 16.4% [5][18]. Core Insights - Innovent is leading the development of next-generation immuno-oncology (IO) and antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) combinations, which are expected to provide broader-spectrum, highly-potent, and less-toxic cancer treatments [9][18]. - The key product IBI363 has shown promising data in various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and mucosal/acral melanoma, positioning it as a cornerstone for next-generation IO therapy [2][10]. - Innovent aims to achieve Rmb20 billion in product revenue by 2027 and advance five pipeline assets into global multi-regional clinical trials by 2030 [1][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been fine-tuned by 1%, 2%, and 2% respectively, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of Rmb0.05, Rmb0.53, and Rmb1.22 [3]. - Innovent's revenue is projected to grow from Rmb9.4 billion in 2024 to Rmb16.6 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23.1% [4][8]. Clinical Development - IBI363 is currently undergoing registrational trials for various indications, including head-to-head trials against pembrolizumab for melanoma and NSCLC, with enrollment expected to complete by the end of 2025 [2][12]. - Innovent is also developing multiple ADC platforms, including SyntecanE, SoloTx, and DuetTx, which are designed to enhance efficacy and reduce toxicity in cancer treatments [11][12]. Market Position - Innovent has transformed from a biotech start-up to a leading biopharma company with 15 launched commercial products, showcasing strong R&D and commercialization capabilities [17][18]. - The company is positioned to leverage its dedicated R&D platform, Innovent Academy, which employs over 500 scientists focused on developing innovative cancer therapies [9][18].