昨日涨跌幅后五行业 2025 年 08 月 27 日 开源晨会 0827 其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -24% 0% 24% 48% 72% 96% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | 2.615 | | 美容护理 | 2.043 | | 基础化工 | 1.257 | | 传媒 | 1.232 | | 综合 | 1.090 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | -1.092 | | 非银金融 | -1.057 | | 钢铁 | -0.981 | | 国防军工 | -0.934 | | 通信 | -0.794 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【公用事业】可控核聚变技术百花齐放，终极能源梦想照进现实——行业投资策 略-20250826 【医药：可孚医疗( ...

海豚君之前说过，虽然$拼多多(PDD.US)一直强调不分红回购，但任何一个公司走过成长期、进入成熟期之后，都要回答一个核心问题：堆积的现金资产如 何使用？ 这个季度，拼多多利息和投资收益单季直接拉到了百亿水准（以利息和股票投资收益为主），相比当季 258 亿的主营业务经营利润已经是一个不小的存在 了。 当然从季度波动性的角度，平均单季还是在 53 亿上下的水平，与去年每个季度的水平相差不大。 本篇海豚君就接着这个机会，搓扁揉碎，仔细看看不分红、不回购，即使 TEMU 和主站需要投入，仍然能有大量利润剩余的拼多多，拿着这几年堆积的小 金库，实现的收益到底如何？ 并在此基础上，展开思考一下，拼多多未来的资本配置可能方向有哪些？ 一、地主家到底堆了多少余粮？ 二季度，公司主要有四类资金属现金或者闲置资金，合计起来可以生息或投资的资产余额高达 5388 亿人民币，约合 750 亿美金。 a.货币基金是维持日常运转的，受限制现金是用户在拼多多在下单时候支付的购物款，存在拼多多的监管银行账户上，等用户确认收款了之后，会支付给商 家。 b. 这里最关键的闲置资金（基本不参与主营业务的价值创造），主要是短期投资和其他非流动资 ...

Market Growth and Potential - Southeast Asia is a significant economic engine in the Asia-Pacific region, with the e-commerce market accelerating since the mid-2010s. The total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) is expected to reach $159 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be 10.42% until 2029. Indonesia leads with a GMV of $56.81 billion, while Malaysia has the lowest growth rate at 10.63%. Vietnam and Thailand are experiencing growth rates exceeding 15% [1][2][3]. Consumer Behavior and Preferences - In terms of product categories, electronics are the best-selling items in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, while fashion, food, and beauty products are also popular. Indonesia shows a strong demand for food products, and Thailand has a high demand for beauty and personal care items. Shopee dominates the market with the highest monthly traffic across all five countries, particularly in Vietnam (170 million) and Indonesia (130 million). TikTok Shop, although not included in website traffic rankings, is rapidly growing, with a projected GMV of over $21 billion in 2024, primarily in Thailand and Indonesia. Social media penetration exceeds 70%, and mobile e-commerce accounts for over 60% of B2C transactions in Indonesia and Thailand [2][3][4]. E-commerce Platform Competitive Landscape - Shopee leads the market with a 45.9% market share, followed by Lazada. The merger of TikTok and Tokopedia has resulted in a combined market share of 28.1%, reshaping the competitive landscape. TEMU, under Pinduoduo, has quickly entered multiple markets with a daily GMV exceeding $1 million, although it faces regulatory challenges. The main sales categories are electronics, fashion, and beauty, with TikTok Shop's beauty and personal care sales accounting for 38% of its total sales. Shopee has significant traffic advantages in Vietnam and Indonesia, while Tokopedia's monthly traffic in Indonesia exceeds 60 million [3][4][5]. Regulations, Logistics, and Market Entry - Foreign investment regulations vary, with the Philippines and Vietnam being more open to foreign capital, allowing cross-border sales without local entities. In contrast, Indonesia and Thailand have strict requirements for establishing local entities, with Indonesia imposing a foreign ownership limit of 49% (up to 100% under specific conditions). Logistics costs as a percentage of GDP vary significantly, with the Philippines at 27% and Thailand at 14%. Malaysia and Thailand exhibit higher logistics efficiency, while overall tariffs are low, though certain categories (like electronics and toys) require certification, with Indonesia's import tariffs reaching as high as 150% [4][5]. Emerging Trends and Opportunities - Social commerce and live streaming are on the rise, with TikTok Shop's sales expected to grow by 115% year-on-year in 2024, driven primarily by Thailand and Indonesia, contributing over 60% of sales. KOL marketing is becoming a key strategy for brands to reach consumers, with Facebook and TikTok as primary platforms for collaboration. Chinese platforms are also emerging, with Alibaba investing over $5.8 billion in Lazada, and Chinese companies deeply engaging in regional competition through capital cooperation and localization strategies. The report highlights that Southeast Asia's e-commerce market presents high growth potential and complexity, necessitating businesses to adapt to local regulations, logistics characteristics, and consumer preferences while leveraging social marketing and localization strategies for market expansion [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hang Seng Technology sector for the second half of the year, suggesting that the sector is worth focusing on due to the presence of many scarce quality assets [4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the narrative of asset revaluation in China has gained momentum, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, although valuations remain relatively low. The uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations may impact risk appetite and profit expectations, but domestic policy support is expected to drive fundamental recovery [8][13]. - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1. Companies benefiting from AI catalysis and upward fundamental trends, specifically Alibaba and Kuaishou. 2. Companies with solid business models and long-term barriers, actively expanding into overseas markets and food delivery, such as Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD Group [3][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is expected to perform well in the second half of the year due to improving fundamentals and capital conditions [4][13]. - Specific companies to watch include: - **Alibaba**: Expected continued growth in its cloud business and e-commerce, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase in CMR for Q4 FY25 [3][13]. - **Kuaishou**: Anticipated improvement in its e-commerce business due to strategic adjustments by Douyin [3][13]. - **Meituan**: Short-term investments are expected to solidify market share, with a long-term competitive advantage in food delivery [3][13]. - **Pinduoduo**: Focus on ecosystem building, with expectations of profit recovery in the second half of the year [3][13]. - **JD Group**: Strong performance in Q1 2025, with significant growth in active user numbers and order volumes [3][13]. E-commerce Trends - The e-commerce sector is shifting from price competition to differentiation, as major platforms adjust their strategies to focus on GMV rather than solely on price competitiveness [15][18]. - The report notes that Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are all experiencing changes in revenue growth rates, with Alibaba and JD showing acceleration while Pinduoduo faces short-term profit pressures [22][30]. Local Services and Delivery - Meituan's core local business revenue is accelerating, attributed to reduced competition and improved departmental synergy [46][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food delivery as a business with strong network effects, with Meituan expected to maintain a solid competitive position despite short-term challenges [50][54]. Technology Investments - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud computing over the next three years, with its cloud business showing strong growth driven by AI-related products [62][59]. - Kuaishou's AI capabilities are being enhanced with the launch of its upgraded models, which are expected to lead the industry in various performance metrics [63][65].

Group 1: Core Insights - The three major players in China's e-commerce sector, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, are showing divergent trends in their latest quarterly financial reports ending March 31, 2025 [2] - Pinduoduo's growth has significantly slowed, revealing weaknesses after previously surpassing Alibaba in market capitalization [3][4] - Alibaba is undergoing organizational changes and embracing AI to explore new opportunities, while JD.com is aggressively entering the food delivery market to establish a second growth curve [2][10] Group 2: Pinduoduo's Challenges - Pinduoduo's market capitalization has dropped to $136.9 billion, about half of Alibaba's $273.7 billion [3] - The company has faced a decline in user experience and product quality due to strained relationships with merchants, leading to a strategic shift from a focus on traffic to quality [5][6] - Pinduoduo's revenue growth for the quarter was only 10.21%, reaching 95.672 billion RMB, lagging behind its competitors [6] Group 3: Alibaba's Strategy - Alibaba's revenue for the same period was 101.369 billion RMB, with an annual growth of 8.75%, and its international digital commerce group saw a 22.34% increase [8] - The company has restructured its e-commerce business into a comprehensive group to enhance resource allocation and break down internal barriers [10] - Alibaba is also focusing on attracting high-end brands and enhancing consumer demand through various subsidy programs [11] Group 4: JD.com's Expansion - JD.com reported a retail business revenue growth of 16.32%, reaching 263.845 billion RMB, surpassing Pinduoduo [8] - The company is entering the food delivery market, aiming to integrate this service into its existing ecosystem for improved efficiency and user engagement [12] - JD.com is leveraging its logistics infrastructure to establish a competitive edge through low pricing strategies [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The e-commerce industry is entering a "post-traffic era," where competition will focus on operational efficiency and the ability to connect supply and demand effectively [14][16] - Each company's strategic choices are shaping a diverse future for the e-commerce landscape in China, with Alibaba focusing on an "ecosystem empire," JD.com on a "supply chain kingdom," and Pinduoduo on "vertical deep cultivation" [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo with a target price of $135.58 per ADS [5][12]. Core Views - The Q1 performance of Pinduoduo fell short of expectations, with revenue of CNY 956.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10.2%, but below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of CNY 1,016.0 billion [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was CNY 169.2 billion, a significant decline of 44.7% year-over-year, also missing the consensus estimate of CNY 278.8 billion [9]. - The report highlights that while advertising revenue showed good performance, commission income was under pressure due to increased merchant support policies and adjustments in the Temu business [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are adjusted to CNY 4,403 billion, CNY 4,883 billion, and CNY 5,250 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to CNY 1,072 billion, CNY 1,317 billion, and CNY 1,499 billion for the same years [3][11]. - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the main e-commerce platform's value at $143.9 billion, the Duoduo grocery business at $5.9 billion, and the Temu business at $42.7 billion [12][14]. Key Financial Metrics - For 2025, the expected operating revenue is CNY 440,349 million, with a year-over-year growth of 12% [10]. - The projected operating profit for 2025 is CNY 112,152 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the previous year [10]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 61.1% and a net margin of 22.1% for 2025 [10].

Group 1: Internet Platform Companies - Tencent has a gross margin of 53% and a net margin of 33.7%, dominating the social media space [1] - Trip.com has a gross margin of 81.76% and a net margin of 32.02%, holding a market share of 65-70% in high-star hotels [1] - Pinduoduo reports a gross margin of 60.9% and a net margin of 28.6%, affected by losses from TEMU [1] - NetEase Games shows a gross margin of 57.14% and a net margin of 28.2% [1] Group 2: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Brands - Leading FMCG brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola have net margins around 20%, with Coca-Cola at 22.6% due to its innovative business model [2] - Second-tier brands like PepsiCo and Nestlé have net margins around 10%, often due to insufficient brand loyalty or high pricing with low scale [3] - Third-tier brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President operate with net margins around 5%, relying on low prices for market share but struggling with brand loyalty and production scale [4] Group 3: Chain Beverage Companies - Top-tier chain beverage companies like Bawang Tea have a net margin of 20.3%, benefiting from brand premium [5] - Starbucks typically has a net margin of around 15%, but faces margin pressure due to increased competition [6] - Second-tier brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have net margins of 17.94% and 16.99%, respectively, leveraging scale advantages [6] Group 4: Hardware Companies - Apple has a gross margin of 46.2% and a net margin of 24%, while Xiaomi has a gross margin of 20.4% and a net margin of 6.44% [8] - NVIDIA shows a gross margin of 78.9% and a net margin of 57%, compared to AMD's gross margin of 50.2% and net margin of 15.3% [8] Group 5: Business Insights - High net margins (above 30%) often indicate monopolistic products, while margins below 15% suggest competitive pressures [9] - Companies with single-digit net margins typically rely on price wars, indicating weak product differentiation and low competitive advantage [14] - Trends in gross and net margins can reveal significant insights about a company's market position, as seen with Tesla and BYD [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone has achieved significant economic growth and innovation since its establishment in 2015, becoming a model for China's open development strategy through the "Five Freedoms and One Convenience" framework [1][9]. Trade Freedom - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone has enhanced trade facilitation, with foreign trade import and export value increasing from 71.2 billion to 537.98 billion yuan from 2015 to 2024, averaging over 25% annual growth [2][9]. - The cross-border e-commerce cluster has seen remarkable success, with a total import and export value of 121.03 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 104% year-on-year increase [2]. Service Trade Freedom - The zone has aligned its construction management systems with Hong Kong and Macau regulations, facilitating international standards in healthcare and enhancing its role as a trade hub [3]. - The Qianhai United Trading Center achieved a transaction volume of 104.71 billion yuan in 2024, while the international trading center for electronic components and integrated circuits reached 90.50 billion yuan, a 64.6% increase [3]. Investment Freedom - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone has streamlined business registration processes, achieving a "second approval" rate for company registration and significantly reducing approval times [4]. - The introduction of investor protection legislation has further improved the business environment, bringing it close to global standards [4]. Financial Freedom - The zone has established itself as a financial innovation hub, with cross-border financial products and services, including cross-border RMB loans and dual-currency bond issuance [5]. - The cumulative cross-border payment transactions through the Free Trade (FT) account exceeded 850 billion yuan, with nearly 80% involving Hong Kong [5]. Transportation Freedom - The establishment of "China Qianhai" and "China Shenzhen" ship registration ports has enhanced shipping capabilities, with innovative customs procedures facilitating smoother operations [6]. - The Qianhai area has opened 36 shipping routes under the "Greater Bay Area Combined Port" initiative, significantly boosting its international shipping hub status [6]. Personnel Employment Freedom - The Qianhai Free Trade Zone has simplified the employment process for professionals from Hong Kong and Macau, allowing 1,066 professionals to practice without local qualification exams [7]. - The implementation of tax incentives for high-end foreign talent has attracted global professionals, enhancing the talent pool in the region [7]. Information Connectivity - Qianhai has pioneered data management innovations, including the establishment of a cross-border data verification platform, enhancing digital connectivity [8]. - The region has developed a comprehensive communication service system, with significant growth in data processing capabilities and user engagement [8]. High-Quality Development Metrics - In 2024, Qianhai accounted for 72% of the Guangdong Free Trade Zone's total imports and exports, with actual foreign investment representing 61% of the zone's total [9][10]. - The port's container throughput increased from 9.94 million TEUs in 2015 to 15.99 million TEUs in 2024, reflecting robust growth in logistics and trade activities [9].

更多成本将被投注于平台生态建设。 拼多多此前多次预警的 "高收入增长不可持续，盈利能力下降趋势不可避免" 正在成为现实。在 2024 四季度及全年财报中，多项数据增速开始放缓。 2024 年四季度，拼多多实现营收 1106 亿元，低于 VA 一致预期的 1178 亿元，同比增速 24.45%，仅 高于 2022 年一季度疫情封控阶段的增速低谷，远低于其他季度增长水平；佣金收入同比增速从 2024 一季度的 327% 连续跌至 33%；得益于克制的营销费用支出，拼多多仍实现了经调整净利润 299 亿 元，同比增长 17.17%，略高于预期。 虽然多项增速放缓，但 2024 年拼多多整体 GMV 增速仍是行业的 3 倍出头，然而资本市场对这家公 司的预期仍持续走低。截至 3 月 26 日，拼多多的滚动市盈率（PE-TTM）为 12.03，对比市盈率 23 的腾讯、19 的阿里、26 的美团，拼多多已经成为了 "最便宜" 的中国互联网大公司之一。 发布 2024 年全年财报后不久，拼多多被传出可能将再投千亿元人民币扶持商家。若情况属实，这意 味着投入将与其 2024 年全年的净利润规模相当。 高效敏捷地奔跑多年后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, indicating strong operational performance and effective strategies in place [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 393.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 59.0%, and a GAAP net profit of 112.43 billion yuan, up 87.3% [2]. - For Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 110.61 billion yuan, which is a 24.4% increase year-on-year, and a GAAP net profit of 27.45 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.9% growth [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 56.8%, a decrease of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the annual gross margin for 2024 was 63.9%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared to 2023 [3]. - The sales expense ratio for Q4 2024 decreased by 1.6 percentage points, while the management and R&D expense ratios showed minor changes [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Online marketing service revenue for 2024 reached 197.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, and commission revenue was 195.90 billion yuan, up 108.2% [4]. - In Q4 2024, online marketing service revenue was 57.01 billion yuan, growing 17.1% year-on-year, while commission revenue was 53.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.3% increase [4]. - The company has implemented various initiatives to support merchants and enhance platform ecology, such as the "Billion Reduction" plan, which aims to lower operational costs for merchants [4].