奈飞（NFLX） 更新报告 持有 2024年5月16日 业务具备护城河，未来几年盈利持续扩张 唐伊莲  我们认为奈飞的护城河主要在于庞大的用户群体、持续扩大的双边 852-25321539 网络效应、多年的内容和算法积累、在北美以外及小语种市场的深 alice.tang@firstshanghai.com.hk 耕。奈飞在部分中小市场的内容产业链已形成垄断。我们认为广告 版具备很强的吸引力，在尽可能不牺牲用户体验的前提下解锁更低 李倩 价的市场。基于平台性质，公司拓展广告业务的边际成本十分有 限，因此在2025年之后，广告业务将开始贡献更多的收入和利润。 852-25321539 我们预计24-26年收入的复合增速为12.2%，经营利润率为24.7%、 chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 26.1%、27.3%，EPS的复合增速为19.7%。  2024Q1业绩摘要：收入同比增长15%至94.91亿美元，高于公司13% 主要数据 的指引。季度净增用户 933 万，全球总用户数同比增长 16%至 2.69 亿。平均订阅费用同比增长 1%。广告版用户数持续扩大，付费用户 行业 TMT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 133 HKD, reflecting a 24% upside potential from the current stock price of 107 HKD [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 31.5 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year growth of 1% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 10%, aligning with market expectations. Non-GAAP net profit reached 7 billion RMB, exceeding market forecasts with a year-over-year increase of 22% [1][6][11]. - The advertising business is experiencing slow growth, primarily due to a weak macroeconomic environment and slow recovery among small and medium-sized clients. The core online marketing revenue was 17 billion RMB, up 3% year-over-year [1][7]. - AI-driven cloud business is showing promising growth, with a 12% year-over-year increase in revenue, largely attributed to Gen AI and foundational models. Revenue from Gen AI accounted for approximately 330 million RMB in Q1 2024 [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2024 was 31.5 billion RMB, with a Non-GAAP operating profit of 6.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase. Non-GAAP net profit was 7 billion RMB, marking a 22% increase year-over-year [1][6][10]. - The core business revenue was 23.8 billion RMB, with online marketing revenue at 17 billion RMB and non-online marketing revenue at 6.8 billion RMB [1][6][10]. Advertising Business - The core online marketing revenue grew by 3% year-over-year, but the growth rate is expected to decline in the second and third quarters of 2024 due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][7][11]. - The mobile ecosystem remains stable, with 676 million monthly active users on the Baidu app, a 3% year-over-year increase [1][7]. AI and Cloud Business - The AI cloud revenue increased by 12% year-over-year, driven by Gen AI and foundational models, with Gen AI contributing 6.9% to the AI cloud revenue [2][8]. - The autonomous driving service provided 826,000 rides in Q1 2024, a 25% year-over-year increase, with plans to expand the fleet to 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2024 [2][8]. Valuation and Market Position - The report adopts a cautious valuation approach, not assigning a value to the cloud and autonomous driving businesses due to their uncertain profitability. The target price is based on a 15x PE ratio of the projected 2024 profits [2][11].

Investment Rating - Target price set at 480 HKD with a buy rating, indicating a potential upside of 20.9% from the last closing price [9][40][57] Core Insights - The company recorded a revenue of 159.5 billion RMB in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8% [40] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 reached 42.7 billion RMB, a significant increase of 62% year-on-year [40] - The gaming business is showing signs of recovery, with international market revenue growing by 3% to 13.6 billion RMB, while domestic market revenue decreased by 2% to 34.5 billion RMB [41][51] - Advertising revenue in Q1 2024 surged by 26% year-on-year to 26.5 billion RMB, driven by growth in WeChat video accounts and other platforms [44] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to 52.3 billion RMB, supported by strong growth in wealth management services [42] Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the projected revenue from value-added services is 313.6 billion RMB, advertising is 119.2 billion RMB, and financial technology and enterprise services is 228.1 billion RMB [20] - The company expects a gross margin of 53% in Q1 2024, up 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [45] - The number of paid value-added accounts reached 260 million, a 12% increase year-on-year [24] Gaming Business Outlook - The upcoming mobile version of "Dungeon & Fighter" is set to launch on May 21, 2024, with strong pre-registration numbers indicating high market interest [29][53] - The company is optimistic about the global gaming industry and is actively seeking investment opportunities [51] Video Account Growth - The WeChat video account has seen significant user engagement, with total usage time increasing by over 80% year-on-year in Q1 2024 [60] - The platform is becoming a key player in the short video industry, with expectations for continued growth in advertising and e-commerce revenue [33][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longyuan Power (0916) with a target price of HKD 9.04, indicating an upside potential from the current price of HKD 6.54 [1]. Core Views - Longyuan Power's wind power profitability is steadily increasing, with a stable growth in annual performance. The company achieved a revenue of RMB 37.6 billion in 2023, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to lower coal sales volume and prices [1]. - The company plans to enhance its project efficiency through capacity expansion and upgrades, focusing on replacing older wind turbines with newer, more efficient models [1]. - Despite short-term performance pressures from increased curtailment rates and market trading impacts, the company has a robust project reserve ensuring growth in installed capacity [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Longyuan Power's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.2 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.5% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.2225 per share, with a payout ratio of 30% [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw an increase in new energy installations, with a total of 562 MW added, bringing the total installed wind capacity to 27.78 GW, a 6% year-on-year increase [1]. Operational Insights - The company is expected to accelerate its new energy installations, with a target of 10 GW of new projects to be operational within the year [1]. - The report highlights that the "big replaces small" strategy will significantly enhance the profitability of older projects, with an estimated capacity for expansion of around 10 GW by the end of 2023 [1]. - Longyuan Power's overall power generation increased by 2.59% in the first four months of 2024, despite a 4.45% decrease in wind power generation hours [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [2]. Core Insights - Elon Musk outlined the upcoming Full Self-Driving (FSD) software update V12.4, which is expected to be released within the week. The update aims to enhance comfort by addressing issues with acceleration and braking [1]. - Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas expressed optimism about the FSD system after experiencing version V12.3.6, noting significant improvements and anticipating further enhancements in V12.4. The Tesla fleet is projected to reach an annual mileage of 100 billion miles by the end of 2025 [1]. - Tesla has seemingly appointed Bonne Eggleston as the new head of the 4680 battery project, with a focus on reducing costs for in-house battery production compared to sourcing from suppliers [3]. - The construction of Tesla's Super Energy Factory in Shanghai has been officially approved, with production expected to begin in Q1 2025 [4]. - Tesla is seeking approval to test its Robotaxi service in China, with officials expressing a willingness to allow testing of advanced technologies [5]. - In April 2024, Tesla's wholesale vehicle sales in China were 62,167 units, reflecting a month-over-month decline of approximately 30% and a year-over-year decline of about 20% [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tesla's current stock price is $168.47, with a market capitalization of $537.85 billion and a total share count of 3.189 billion [2]. Recent Developments - The anticipated FSD update V12.4 is expected to improve the driving experience significantly [1]. - The new head of the 4680 battery project is focused on achieving cost reductions for Tesla's in-house battery production [3]. - The Shanghai Super Energy Factory is set to begin construction in May 2024, with production slated for early 2025 [4]. Sales Performance - In April 2024, Tesla's wholesale sales in China were down 30% month-over-month and 20% year-over-year, while domestic sales also saw a decline [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The report anticipates Tencent Holdings Limited's Q1 2024 revenue to be approximately 158.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.66% [6]. - The report highlights that the value-added services revenue is expected to decline by 1.84% year-on-year to 77.9 billion RMB, while advertising revenue is projected to increase by 18.76% to 24.9 billion RMB [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to rise by 31.59% year-on-year to around 42.8 billion RMB [6]. - The report notes a strong recovery in game revenue growth, with expectations for overseas game revenue to show single-digit growth year-on-year [6]. - The advertising business is expected to continue optimizing profit margins due to clear commercialization paths and technological support, with video account user engagement increasing [6]. - The cloud business will focus on cost reduction and efficiency while maintaining healthy market share growth [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Expectations - Q1 2024 revenue is projected at 158.5 billion RMB, a 5.66% increase year-on-year [6]. - Value-added services revenue is expected to decline by 1.84% to 77.9 billion RMB [6]. - Advertising revenue is forecasted to grow by 18.76% to 24.9 billion RMB [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to increase by 31.59% to approximately 42.8 billion RMB [6]. Game and Advertising Insights - Game revenue is expected to recover, with domestic game revenue anticipated to stabilize after a high comparative base from the previous year [6]. - Overseas game revenue is projected to show single-digit growth year-on-year [6]. - The advertising business is expected to benefit from improved user engagement and collaboration with Douyin, enhancing advertising effectiveness [6]. Cloud and Financial Services - The cloud business will prioritize cost reduction and efficiency while focusing on market share growth [6]. - Financial services are expected to see margin improvements driven by recovering macro demand and increased technology service fees from video accounts [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Alibaba Group [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba Group is expected to report total revenue of 219.9 billion RMB for the quarter ending March 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 5.6% [4]. - The Taobao and Tmall Group is projected to achieve low single-digit revenue growth, with total revenue estimated at 92.5 billion RMB, where customer management revenue is expected to be 62.1 billion RMB, indicating that the growth rate of customer management revenue is still lower than that of sales [4]. - The growth strategy for the Taobao and Tmall Group focuses on a user-first approach and efficient operations to better serve the diverse Chinese consumer base [4]. - The online retail sales of physical goods in China grew by 11.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2024, accounting for 23.3% of total retail sales of consumer goods [4]. - Adjusted EBITA is expected to slightly decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA projected to decrease to 38.1 billion RMB, primarily due to higher-than-expected losses from non-Taobao businesses, including a one-time equity incentive distribution to employees following the withdrawal of Cainiao Group's IPO [7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Expectations - Total revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be 219.9 billion RMB, with a 5.6% year-over-year increase [4]. Taobao and Tmall Group Performance - Revenue for the Taobao and Tmall Group is expected to be 92.5 billion RMB, with customer management revenue at 62.1 billion RMB, showing a growth rate lower than sales [4]. Growth Strategy - The focus is on a user-first strategy and efficient operations to cater to a diverse consumer base in China [4]. Online Retail Growth - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.6% year-over-year, representing 23.3% of total retail sales [4]. EBITA Projections - Adjusted EBITA is projected to decline to 25.1 billion RMB, with the Taobao and Tmall Group's adjusted EBITA at 38.1 billion RMB, impacted by losses from other business segments [7]. Share Buyback Update - As of March 31, 2024, the company repurchased a total of 524 million shares at a total cost of 4.8 billion USD, resulting in a net decrease of 520 million shares compared to the previous quarter [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.06, indicating a potential upside of 47.8% from the current price [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company, BOE Technology Group's subsidiary, is a leader in the automotive display market, providing advanced display modules and systems. Despite a challenging 2023 with revenue of HKD 10.76 billion (up 0.4%) and a net profit of HKD 475 million (down 18%), the company maintains a strong market position [1][2]. - The automotive display module market is expected to grow significantly, with global compound annual growth rates of 4.4% for total shipments, 8.35% for medium and large sizes, and 18.16% for oxide and LTPS shipments over the next three years [1]. - The company has a robust technological foundation in high-end products, including the global launch of a 14.6-inch QHD oxide display product, and is entering mass production for several advanced display technologies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 10.76 billion, a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous year. The net profit was HKD 475 million, reflecting a decrease of 18% [5][6]. - Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 predict revenues of HKD 12.06 billion and HKD 13.58 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to rise to HKD 540 million and HKD 615 million [2][5]. Market Position - The company holds the largest market share in global automotive displays, with significant advancements in ultra-large displays and various innovative display technologies [1][2]. - The overseas market presents substantial growth potential, with expectations of double-digit growth as 39 client projects are set to enter mass production in 2024 [1][2]. Production Capacity - The Chengdu automotive display base has a designed annual production capacity of 15 million units and achieved full production in 2023, with a utilization rate of approximately 90% and a yield rate of about 97% [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 178.00 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.26% from the current stock price of 154.43 USD [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in client and embedded business segments, with a strong demand for accelerated computing, particularly in the data center sector, driven by AI processor needs [1][2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.1% for revenue and 67.1% for Non-GAAP net profit, reflecting robust growth prospects [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.5 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with a gross margin of 46.8%, up 2.7 percentage points [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 1.03 billion USD, representing a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with diluted earnings per share of 0.62 USD [1][2]. - The guidance for the next quarter indicates a revenue midpoint of 5.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.6% [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Data center revenue grew by 80.5% year-on-year to 2.34 billion USD, primarily due to strong demand for server and AI processors [1]. - The client segment saw an 85.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 1.37 billion USD, driven by strong sales of Ryzen desktop CPUs [1]. - Gaming and embedded business revenues declined by 47.5% and 45.8% respectively, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the second half of the year due to improved FPGA sales [2]. Market Outlook - The global PC market is expected to show moderate growth in 2024, with the company anticipating a recovery in client business driven by increased demand and improved pricing [1][2]. - The MI300 series is projected to contribute 4 billion USD in revenue for the year, with an expected production capacity of 610,000 units and an average selling price of 9,400 USD [1][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Elon Musk's recent visit to China may be related to the launch of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in the country, indicating potential growth opportunities for Tesla in the Chinese market [1]. - Tesla showcased its FSD capabilities in Germany, receiving positive feedback from Swedish traffic officials, which highlights the advancements in its autonomous driving technology [3]. - The release of the FSD (supervised) version 12.3.6 shows improvements in lane changing behavior, suggesting ongoing enhancements in Tesla's software [4]. - Tesla's new Model 3 Performance was launched at a starting price of $52,990, with a subsequent price increase shortly after its release, indicating strong demand [5]. - In Australia, Tesla reduced the prices of Model 3 and Model Y to adapt to fluctuating international demand, reflecting the company's strategy to remain competitive [6]. - A potential supply agreement worth over $4 billion with LG Energy Solutions for 4680 battery electrodes could significantly impact Tesla's production capabilities starting in 2025 [7]. - Tesla's domestic insurance registration data shows a significant decline in vehicle registrations, with approximately 5,200 vehicles registered in the third week of April 2024, marking a 56% quarter-over-quarter and 50% year-over-year decrease [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tesla's current stock price is $168.29, with a market capitalization of $536.71 billion and a total share count of 3.185 billion [2]. Product Developments - The new Model 3 Performance features impressive specifications, including a 0 to 60 mph acceleration time of under 3 seconds and a range of 476 kilometers [5]. Market Performance - The report indicates a notable drop in Tesla's domestic insurance registrations, which may signal challenges in market demand [8].