瑞声科技（2018） 更新报告 买入 2024年4月2日 23年业绩略有下跌，声学有望升规升配，结构件业务增势强劲 陈晓霞  23 年业绩略有下跌：公司 2023 年全年实现收入 204.2 亿元（人民币，下 852-25321956 同），同比下降 1.0%。毛利率为 16.9%，同比下滑 1.4 个百分点。净利 润 7.4 亿，同比下降 9.9%，基本符合预期，主要是因为全球智能手机恢 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 复不及预期，消费需求疲软。展望 24 年，智能手机市场微复苏，公司 主要数据 IoT、AR/VR 及车载领域均获成果，尤其车载领域取得定点项目和收购 PSS公司，将助力公司全球汽车行业渗透。 行业 TMT  光学业务稳健增长，声学有望升规升配：光学业务实现收入 36.3 亿，同 股价 26.25港元 比增长12.7%，得益于塑胶镜头和光学模组业务产品升级进展顺利以及在 目标价 29.04港元 中高端机型份额的提升，公司全年塑胶镜头和 WLG 镜头出货量同比分别 （+10.6%） 提升 20%和 22%。毛利率为-13%，同比持平。公司去库存进展良好，预计 今年一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CRRC Times Electric (3898) with a target price of HKD 38.1, indicating a potential upside of 53.6% from the current price [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in rail transit and rapid growth in new equipment, with a net profit growth of 21.5% in 2023, driven by a revenue increase of 20.9% to RMB 21.8 billion [2]. - The rail transit business is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in national railway passenger volume, which rose by 128.8% year-on-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The emerging equipment business is experiencing high growth rates, particularly in power semiconductor devices and new energy vehicle components, with some segments growing over 69% [2]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 21.8 billion, with a net profit of RMB 3.1 billion, translating to an earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 2.19 [2][7]. - The revenue breakdown shows rail transit business revenue at RMB 12.9 billion (up 2%) and emerging equipment business revenue at RMB 8.7 billion (up 69.6%) [2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 projects revenues of RMB 24.5 billion, RMB 27.8 billion, and RMB 30.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 12.4%, 13.6%, and 10.0% [2][7]. Business Segments - The rail transit business is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for locomotive and train replacements, with a total of 22,400 locomotives and 4,427 standard train sets in operation by the end of 2023 [2]. - The emerging equipment segment focuses on two main areas: transportation and energy, with significant investments in research and development, amounting to RMB 2.02 billion in 2023, representing 9.3% of total revenue [2]. - The company has secured new orders for photovoltaic inverters totaling 18.6 GW, ranking among the top three in the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit growth of 118% in 2023, with revenues reaching RMB 130 billion, marking a 21% increase [2] - The completion of the acquisition of Jabil enhances the company's competitiveness in consumer electronics and is expected to boost revenue and profit levels in 2024 [2] - The automotive electronics segment is poised for high-quality development, with new high-value products expected to drive a 50% revenue growth in 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its business boundaries into new categories, including AI servers, home energy storage, smart home products, gaming hardware, and drones [2] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 45, indicating a potential upside of 54.6% from the current price of HKD 28.85 [2] Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 130 billion and a net profit of RMB 4.04 billion [2][5] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 160.4 billion, RMB 172.3 billion, and RMB 184.9 billion, with growth rates of 23.4%, 7.4%, and 7.3% respectively [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 5.14 billion, RMB 6.27 billion, and RMB 7.24 billion, with growth rates of 27%, 22%, and 15.5% respectively [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.79, with further increases expected in the following years [2][5] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30% from 2024 onwards, with dividends per share projected to increase over the years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Vientiane Life (1209) with a target price of HKD 43.20, indicating a potential upside of 74.2% from the current price of HKD 24.75 [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth, with a 22.9% increase in revenue for 2023, reaching CNY 14.77 billion, and a core net profit growth of 32.8% to CNY 2.93 billion [1][2]. - The overall gross margin improved to 31.2% in 2023, with expectations to rise to 31.8% in 2024 [1]. - The management of commercial properties has shown significant improvement, with revenue from this segment increasing by 22.6% to CNY 5.17 billion and gross margin rising to 58.4% [1][2]. - The company is expanding its presence in high-end markets, with rental income from shopping centers growing by 50.6% to CNY 2.20 billion [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was CNY 14.77 billion, a 22.9% increase from 2022, with projected revenues of CNY 18.85 billion for 2024 [2]. - Core net profit for 2023 reached CNY 2.93 billion, reflecting a 32.8% year-on-year growth, with expectations of CNY 3.67 billion for 2024 [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was CNY 1.28, with projections of CNY 1.61 for 2024 [2]. - The dividend per share is expected to increase from CNY 0.70 in 2023 to CNY 0.88 in 2024, indicating a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2023 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned among the top tier in the property management industry, benefiting from strong operational capabilities and a stable growth in managed area [1]. - The report highlights the synergy between property management and commercial operations as a key advantage for sustained growth [1]. - The total managed area reached 3.7 billion square meters by the end of 2023, with a significant portion coming from third-party contracts [1].

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 98.09, implying a 32.4% upside from the current price of HKD 74.10 [1][3] Core Views - 2023 net profit of RMB 4.56 billion met expectations, with capacity utilization recovering to 100% [1] - Revenue declined 10.1% YoY to RMB 24.97 billion due to weak global consumer demand and customer destocking [1] - Gross margin improved 2.2ppt to 24.3%, driven by higher capacity utilization and overseas factory efficiency [1] - Effective tax rate dropped to 8.8% due to higher overseas profit contribution [1] - Final dividend of HKD 1.08 declared, representing a payout ratio of 60.3% [1] - Double-digit revenue growth expected in 2024 as destocking progresses and capacity utilization remains at 100% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by product: sportswear -13.6%, casualwear -1.4%, underwear +30.2%, others -41.6% [2] - Revenue breakdown by region: Europe -19.1%, US -20.4%, Japan -6.4%, other regions -7.6%, China +0.7% [2] - Key customer growth: Nike -10.8%, Adidas -24.1%, Uniqlo +2.9%, Puma -28.1% [2] - Domestic brands' share increased to 11%, while Lululemon accounted for 2% of sales [2] - 2H23 revenue declined 5.5% YoY, with Q4 returning to positive growth [3] - 2H23 gross margin improved 3.1ppt QoQ to 25.8% [3] Forecasts - 2024 revenue forecast at RMB 28.15 billion, +12.8% YoY [4] - 2024 net profit forecast at RMB 5.37 billion, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 EPS forecast at RMB 3.57, +17.8% YoY [4] - 2024 dividend forecast at HKD 2.41, with payout ratio maintained at 60% [4] - 2024-2026 revenue CAGR forecast at 13.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net profit CAGR forecast at 17.8% [4] Industry and Company Positioning - The company operates in the apparel and textile industry [2] - It benefits from vertical integration, balanced domestic and overseas presence, and strong management execution [3] - The company is well-positioned as an industry leader with innovative product capabilities [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yancoal Australia (3668) with a target price of HKD 37.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 26.25 [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations despite a year-on-year revenue decline of 26%, attributed to falling coal prices. The total revenue recorded was AUD 7.78 billion, with a net profit of AUD 1.82 billion, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in production and cash costs in the second half of 2023, with cash costs expected to stabilize between AUD 92-102 per ton in 2024 as production ramps up [1]. - The international coal market is expected to reach a new balance, with coal prices stabilizing in the second half of 2023. The average price for 2024 is projected at AUD 183 per ton [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Yancoal Australia reported a total revenue of AUD 7.78 billion, a decrease of 26% from the previous year. The net profit was AUD 1.82 billion, reflecting a 39% decline [1][2]. - The average cash cost for the year was AUD 96 per ton, with significant increases in costs during the first half, which improved in the second half due to increased production [1]. Production and Costs - The company is actively restoring production capacity, with coal production expected to return to historical highs. The average coal price for 2023 was AUD 232 per ton [1]. - Cash costs are projected to decrease in 2024 as production increases, with expectations of maintaining costs within the guidance range of AUD 92-102 per ton [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a rebalancing in the international coal market, with prices expected to stabilize. The NEWC6000K index is projected to average USD 126 per ton in 2024 [1]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices is linked to global economic factors and the reopening of the Australian coal market [1]. Dividend and Debt Management - The company has successfully repaid its interest-bearing debts, enhancing its investment value. It declared a fully franked dividend of AUD 0.33 per share for 2023, with a total dividend payout of AUD 9.18 billion [1]. - As of the end of 2023, Yancoal Australia held AUD 1.65 billion in cash and had no interest-bearing debt, only lease liabilities [1].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年3月19日 星期二 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 FSD Beta v12.3 开始大规模推送 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 3月16日凌晨， Teslascope 分享称，FSD Beta v12.3 正在向美国数千辆车推送， 李倩 其中包括美国每个州的 FSD 测试版客户和东海岸的一些车辆。这波 v12 部署中包 852-25321539 含的所有车辆的软件版本都是 2023.44.30.8 和 2023.44.30.14。但在加拿大，本 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 次更新目前仍仅向特斯拉员工开放，此前Teslascope 预计新的 FSD Beta很快就 陈晓霞 会在加拿大推出。 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 欧洲、美国 Model Y 价格上涨 特斯拉欧洲计划于3 月 22 日在欧洲国家提高 Model Y 的价格，价格上涨约 2,0 行业 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom with a target price adjusted to HKD 5.2, reflecting a 27% upside potential from the current stock price of HKD 4.1 [2][3]. Core Views - China Telecom has entered a high-quality development phase focused on improving efficiency and returns, with service revenue expected to maintain good growth over the next three years. The reduction in capital expenditure is anticipated to enhance operating cash flow [2][3]. - The company emphasizes precise cost management and structural optimization, projecting profit growth to outpace revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, China Telecom achieved revenue of CNY 513.6 billion (YoY +6.7%), with service revenue at CNY 465 billion (YoY +6.9%). EBITDA reached CNY 136.8 billion (YoY +5.0%), and net profit was CNY 30.4 billion (YoY +10.3%) [1][3]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% over the next three years, with a dividend of CNY 0.23 per share in 2023 (YoY +19%) [1][3]. Business Segments - Mobile communication service revenue was CNY 195.7 billion (YoY +2.4%), with a mobile ARPU of CNY 45.4 (YoY +0.4%). The number of mobile users reached 408 million, with a net increase of 16.59 million users [1][3]. - The digital industry segment saw revenue of CNY 138.9 billion (YoY +17.9%), with Tianyi Cloud revenue at CNY 97.2 billion (YoY +67.9%), indicating rapid growth and a focus on upgrading to intelligent cloud services [1][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the capital expenditure for 2024 will be CNY 96 billion, accounting for less than 20% of service revenue, a decrease of 2.9% from the previous year [1][3]. - The company is expected to focus more on the quality of revenue growth in its cloud services, transitioning into a phase of high-quality development [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.43, indicating a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HKD 17.60 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 416.61 billion for 2023, a decrease of 1.33% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 123.84 billion, down 12.60% year-on-year, primarily due to declining international oil prices [1]. - The company achieved a net production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, an increase of 8.69% year-on-year, with a record high net proven reserves of 6,784 million barrels of oil equivalent [1]. - The company maintained a strong cost control with an average oil production cost of USD 28.83 per barrel, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year [1]. - Capital expenditures for 2023 were raised to RMB 129.6 billion, an increase of 18.73% year-on-year, with plans for 2024 capital expenditures between RMB 125 billion and RMB 135 billion [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 416.61 billion and a net profit of RMB 123.84 billion, with a dividend payout of HKD 1.25 per share [1][5]. - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 440.23 billion, RMB 479.79 billion, and RMB 493.81 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at RMB 134.57 billion, RMB 147.09 billion, and RMB 151.14 billion [2][5]. Production and Reserves - The company successfully discovered 9 new oil and gas fields and evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, maintaining its position as China's largest crude oil production base [1]. - The reserve replacement ratio reached 180%, with a stable reserve life of over 10 years for the past 7 years [1]. Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in operating costs, with a 10.7% reduction in taxes other than income tax and a 4.1% decrease in depreciation and amortization costs [1]. Capital Expenditure - The company plans to continue its strategy of increasing reserves and production while integrating green low-carbon projects with oil and gas production [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 236.91 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 25.30% from the current price of 189.08 RMB [2][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 400.92 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%, and a net profit of approximately 44.12 billion RMB, up 43.58% from the previous year [1]. - The company holds a significant competitive advantage in the battery sector, with a global market share of 36.8% in power batteries and 40% in energy storage batteries, maintaining its position as a market leader [1]. - The company is expanding its international presence through partnerships, including a battery factory with Ford in Hungary, which is expected to have a capacity of 100 GWh [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): - 2022: 328,594 - 2023: 400,917 - 2024 (forecast): 428,773 - 2025 (forecast): 492,657 - 2026 (forecast): 538,627 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 22% - 2024: 7% - 2025: 15% [3][6] - Net Profit (in million RMB): - 2022: 30,729 - 2023: 44,121 - 2024 (forecast): 53,818 - 2025 (forecast): 61,034 - 2026 (forecast): 66,685 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023: 44% - 2024: 22% - 2025: 13% [3][6] - Gross Margin: - 2023: 22.91% - 2024 (forecast): 24.4% - 2025 (forecast): 24.5% [6] Cash Flow and Dividend - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of 928 billion RMB and cash reserves of 2,643 billion RMB at the end of the year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 220.6 billion RMB for 2023, which includes a regular cash dividend of 20.11 RMB and a special cash dividend of 30.17 RMB per share [1].