防务需求阶段性放缓导致营收下滑，为保 交付带来存货高增 核心观点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年全年实现营收 50.25 亿元（-19.08%），实现归母 净利润 3.47 亿元（-53.75%）。单季度看，2024Q4 实现营收 10.30 亿元 （+2.31%）， 实现归母净利润-0.65 亿元（-141.72%）。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报调整营收增速和毛利率，上调 25、26 年 EPS 为 1.93、2.35 元（前 值为 1.86、2.32 元），新增 27 年 EPS 为 2.77 元，参考可比公司 25 年 37 倍 PE， 给予目标价 71.41 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：军品订单下放和收入确认进度不及预期；降价幅度具有不确定性等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,210 | 5,025 | 7,264 | 8,423 | 9,674 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.2% ...

电子行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 AI 算力浪涌，PCB 加速升级 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ AI 服务器硬件迭代催生 PCB 行业结构性增长机遇，国产厂商高端替代有望加速。 建议关注有望受益于 AI 服务器浪潮的 PCB 厂商——沪电股份、胜宏科技、景旺电 子、深南电路、生益电子、方正科技、广合科技、威尔高、中富电路、奥士康等； 受益于 AI 端侧落地的 PCB 公司——鹏鼎控股、东山精密、世运电路、一博科技、 弘信电子、四会富仕、迅捷兴等；IC 载板相关厂商——深南电路、兴森科技、博敏 电子、联瑞新材、方邦股份、沃格光电等；以及上游 CCL 厂商——生益科技、南亚 新材、华正新材等。 风险提示 ⚫ AI 服务器渗透率不及预期；技术迭代风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 01 日 看好（维持） | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | --- | --- | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its fourth-quarter performance, with a notable increase in net profit and gross margin compared to previous quarters [11]. - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, which has led to increased sales in key sectors such as bearing steel and automotive steel [11]. - The company has a strong commitment to high dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 5.07 yuan per 10 shares, which represents approximately 49.95% of its net profit for the year [11]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 109.203 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 5.126 billion yuan, down 10.4% from the previous year [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 1.12, 1.20, and 1.28 yuan respectively [3][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 12.8% in 2024 to 15.0% by 2027 [5][11]. Valuation and Price Target - Based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14x for comparable companies, the target price is set at 15.68 yuan [3][12]. - The current stock price as of April 1, 2025, is 12.65 yuan, indicating potential upside [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.4 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 51.6 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 6.8% year-on-year increase [10]. - The company is leveraging technology and cost control to strengthen its market position, with a focus on high-end technology breakthroughs and integrated service capabilities [12]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.1 billion CNY, a 4.1% increase from the previous year, indicating stable profitability [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 44.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.7%, and is projected to reach 48.3 billion CNY in 2024 [10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 15.7%, slightly down from 15.9% in 2023, while the net profit margin is projected to be 6.5% [10][12]. - The company’s EPS for 2025 is forecasted at 0.82 CNY, with a steady increase to 0.94 CNY by 2027 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading integrated oilfield service provider, focusing on technological advancements and cost leadership to enhance its competitive edge [12]. - The company has reduced its debt ratio to 46.4%, which supports future capital expenditures and technological investments [12]. - The report highlights the recovery in global oilfield service demand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Americas regions [12].

电子行业 行业研究 | 深度报告 AI 算力浪涌，PCB 加速升级 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ AI 服务器硬件迭代催生 PCB 行业结构性增长机遇，国产厂商高端替代有望加速。 建议关注有望受益于 AI 服务器浪潮的 PCB 厂商——沪电股份、胜宏科技、景旺电 子、深南电路、生益电子、方正科技、广合科技、威尔高、中富电路、奥士康等； 受益于 AI 端侧落地的 PCB 公司——鹏鼎控股、东山精密、世运电路、一博科技、 弘信电子、四会富仕、迅捷兴等；IC 载板相关厂商——深南电路、兴森科技、博敏 电子、联瑞新材、方邦股份、沃格光电等；以及上游 CCL 厂商——生益科技、南亚 新材、华正新材等。 风险提示 ⚫ AI 服务器渗透率不及预期；技术迭代风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 01 日 看好（维持） | 蒯剑 | 021-63325888*8514 | | --- | --- | | | kuaijian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860514050005 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPT856 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 27.9 CNY based on a 10x PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 [2][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance with a projected revenue of 420.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 137.9 billion CNY, up 11.4% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [9]. - The company has achieved a record high oil and gas net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, showcasing its resource development capabilities as a leading offshore oil and gas player in China. Cost control measures have effectively maintained low costs per barrel, supporting high profitability resilience [9]. - The company plans to maintain stable capital expenditures, focusing on the development of deepwater oil and gas fields and the layout of new energy businesses, which positions it well to capitalize on the recovery of global energy demand and domestic policies supporting increased reserves and production [9]. Financial Summary - The company's financial performance is projected as follows: - Revenue (in million CNY): 416,609 in 2023, 420,506 in 2024, 429,067 in 2025, 454,713 in 2026, and 481,992 in 2027, with growth rates of -1.3%, 0.9%, 2.0%, 6.0%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. - Net profit (in million CNY): 123,843 in 2023, 137,936 in 2024, 132,565 in 2025, 142,004 in 2026, and 148,442 in 2027, with growth rates of -12.6%, 11.4%, -3.9%, 7.1%, and 4.5% respectively [7]. - Earnings per share (in CNY): 2.61 in 2023, 2.90 in 2024, 2.79 in 2025, 2.99 in 2026, and 3.12 in 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady performance with a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% and a net profit of 137.9 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [9] - The company has achieved a record high oil and gas net production of 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, showcasing its resource development capabilities as a leading offshore oil and gas player in China [9] - The company continues its high dividend policy, with A/H share dividends of 1.29 yuan/share and 1.40 HKD/share, corresponding to dividend yields of approximately 5.0% and 7.6% respectively, highlighting its long-term investment value [9] - Looking ahead to 2025, the company plans to maintain stable capital expenditures, focusing on deepwater oil and gas field development and new energy business layout, which is expected to enhance oil and gas production and release growth potential [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 416,609 - 2024A: 420,506 - 2025E: 429,067 - 2026E: 454,713 - 2027E: 481,992 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: -1.3% - 2024A: 0.9% - 2025E: 2.0% - 2026E: 6.0% - 2027E: 6.0% [7] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 123,843 - 2024A: 137,936 - 2025E: 132,565 - 2026E: 142,004 - 2027E: 148,442 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit: - 2023A: -12.6% - 2024A: 11.4% - 2025E: -3.9% - 2026E: 7.1% - 2027E: 4.5% [7] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2023A: 2.61 - 2024A: 2.90 - 2025E: 2.79 - 2026E: 2.99 - 2027E: 3.12 [7]

有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看好（维持） 房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 24 年行业整体亏损，进入结算压力期 ⚫ 第 13 周房地产板块指数弱于沪深 300 指数，弱于创业板指。房地产板块较沪深 300 指数相对收益为-1.7%。沪深 300 指数报收 3915.17，周度涨幅为 0.0%；创业板指 数报收 2128.21，周度涨幅-1.1%；房地产指数（申万）报收 2254.38，周度涨幅为 -1.7%。 ⚫ 地方性政策方面。宁波允许符合条件的缴存人提取公积金支付二手住房首付款；深 圳发布《关于规范城市更新实施工作的若干意见》的通知；青岛发布公积金新政 策，加大多子女家庭购房支持；安徽全面取消住房限制性措施推行"房票"货币化 安置；呼和浩特市优化住房公积金贷款提前部分还款条件，取消部分还本次数限 制；湖南优化现房销售试点，大力推行住房公积金"既提又贷"政策。 ⚫ 第 13 周新房销量较第 12 周增加，二手房销售量较第 12 周增加。第 13 周 44 大城 市新房销售为 2.7 万套，较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate sector [7][56]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is expected to face overall losses in 2024, entering a period of settlement pressure. The performance of major companies shows a general decline in profits, with many firms reporting significant losses [2][7][48]. - New housing sales have increased compared to the previous week, with 27,000 new homes sold in 44 major cities, marking a 26.6% increase from the prior week. Second-hand home sales also rose by 4.1% [7][16]. - Local policies are being implemented to support home purchases, including allowing the withdrawal of housing funds for down payments and optimizing loan conditions [12][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.7%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3915.17 with a weekly change of 0.0% [10][15]. 2. Sales Data - In the 13th week, new home sales in major cities reached 27,000 units, a 26.6% increase from the previous week. Second-hand home sales were 23,000 units, up 4.1% [16][23]. 3. Inventory and Land Market - As of the 13th week, inventory in 18 major cities decreased to 773,000 units, down by 87,000 units from the previous week. The inventory-to-sales ratio is now 20.7 months, a reduction of 2.1 months [23][28]. - The land market showed increased activity, with land transfer fees in 36 major cities totaling 18.989 billion yuan, an increase of 4.734 billion yuan from the previous week [28][37]. 4. Company Announcements - Several companies, including China National Trade and Poly Developments, have released their 2024 annual reports, indicating a general decline in revenue and profits across the sector [43][48].

Group 1: Market Trends - Emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, are experiencing significant stock market volatility due to escalating U.S. tariff risks and weakening economic growth expectations[1] - The Jakarta Composite Index in Indonesia saw a drop of over 7.1% on March 18, marking its largest single-day decline since 2011, and has fallen more than 20% since its historical high in September 2024[1] - Thailand's SET Index has decreased by 20.5% since its peak in October 2024, indicating a move towards a technical bear market[1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Indonesia is facing fiscal deficits and policy changes that undermine investor confidence, with a rare budget deficit reported in February 2025 due to weak commodity prices and increased tariffs from the U.S.[1] - The new Indonesian president's social welfare policies require an annual expenditure of $28 billion, which, combined with significant infrastructure costs, is expected to strain the capital market in the short term[1] - Thailand's exports to the U.S. reached $54.95 billion in 2024, and potential U.S. tariff increases could significantly impact key sectors like electronics, automotive, and food[2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The Thai government has implemented several short-term measures to stabilize the stock market, including unconventional interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, but these have not effectively supported the market[2] - Both countries are likely to face challenges in attracting long-term capital inflows due to tightening dollar liquidity and the pressures of currency depreciation[3] - The effectiveness of unconventional market rescue policies may improve short-term market sentiment, but long-term trends will depend on the quality of economic growth and the implementation of measures to counter U.S. tariff impacts[3]