2025 年 12 月 6 日 行业研究 股票风险因子差异化下调，推动险资进一步发挥耐心资本优势 ——《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》点评 非银行金融 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 长周期考核权重升至 70%，利好险资加大入 市力度——《进一步加强国有商业保险公司 长周期考核的通知》点评（2025-07-12） 保险权益投资空间拓宽，长期资金入市有望 提速——《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监 管比例有关事项的通知》点评（2025-04-09） 进一步明确长周期考核要求，提升中长期资 金入市力度——《关于推动中长期资金入市 工作的实施方案》点评（2025-01-23） 要点 另一方面，政策鼓励下今年以来险资入市力度显著增强，25Q3 末行业（人身险公 司+财产险公司）股票配置比例达 10%，环比+1.2pc ...

2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20251201-20251205） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 5 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 308 只， 发行规模总计 3395.35 亿元，环比减少 42.35%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 123 只，发行规模达 1149.26 亿元，环比 减少 62.74%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 33.85%；城投债共发行 152 只， 发行规模达 963.39 亿元，环比减少 18.53%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 28.37%；金融债共发行 33 只，发行规模达 1282.70 亿元，环比减少 20.96%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 37.78%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.66 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.49 年、城投债平均发行期限为 2.80 年、金融债平均发行期限为 2.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report From December 1, 2025, to December 5, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a fluctuating downward trend, with a weighted REITs index return rate of - 0.86%. Compared with other mainstream large - category assets, REITs performed weakly. In the primary market, no new REITs products were listed, and the project status of one REITs product was updated [1][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **Large - category Asset Level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a fluctuating downward trend. The returns of China's public REITs were - 0.86%, ranking behind other mainstream large - category assets such as US stocks, A - shares, convertible bonds, etc. [1][11] - **Underlying Asset Level**: Both the property - type and franchise - type REITs' secondary - market prices declined. Among different underlying asset types, water conservancy facilities REITs had the largest increase, and the top three in terms of return rate were water conservancy facilities, new infrastructure, and energy - type REITs [16][18] - **Single REIT Level**: Among 77 REITs, 17 rose, 2 remained flat, and 58 declined. The top three in terms of increase were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, E Fund Shenzhen Expressway REIT, and Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT; the top three in terms of decline were Zheshang Shanghai - Hangzhou - Ningbo REIT, China Merchants Expressway REIT, and E Fund Huawei Market REIT [23] 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **Underlying Asset Level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 1.96 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.38%. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and park infrastructure; the top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were ecological and environmental protection, affordable rental housing, and water conservancy facilities [24] - **Single REIT Level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT; the top three in terms of trading amount were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, Huaxia CR Land Commercial REIT, and Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT; the top three in terms of turnover rate were Huaxia Fund CR Land Youchao REIT, CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, and Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT [27] 3.1.3 Main Force Net Inflow and Block Trade Situation - **Main Force Net Inflow Situation**: The total net inflow of the main force this week was 22.05 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm increased compared with last week. The top three in terms of net inflow of different underlying asset REITs were transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and new infrastructure; the top three single - REITs in terms of net inflow were Huaxia CR Land Commercial REIT, CICC Anhui Expressway REIT, and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT [31] - **Block Trade Situation**: The total block - trade amount this week reached 214.55 million yuan, a decrease compared with last week. There were block - trade transactions on 4 trading days, with the highest single - day trading volume on December 2, 2025. The top three single - REITs in terms of block - trade amount were China Merchants Expressway REIT, CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, and ICBC Hebei Expressway REIT [32] 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects As of December 5, 2025, there were 77 public REITs products in China, with a total issuance scale of 199.301 billion yuan. The transportation infrastructure category had the largest issuance scale, followed by the park infrastructure category. No new REITs products were listed this week [36][38] 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed There were 20 REITs in the to - be - listed state, including 13 first - issue REITs and 7 to - be - expanded REITs. The project status of Ping An Xi'an Gaoke Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (first - issue) was updated to "accepted" [41][42]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: PB-ROE-50 **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the combination of Price-to-Book ratio (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) to select stocks with high profitability and reasonable valuation[23] **Model Construction Process**: The PB-ROE-50 portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with the top 50 combined scores of PB and ROE. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically, and adjustments are made based on the stock universe of different indices such as CSI 500 and CSI 800[23] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates positive excess returns in specific stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value and profitability factors[23] - **Model Name**: Block Trade Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle that stocks with higher block trade transaction ratios and lower 6-day transaction amount volatility tend to perform better subsequently[29] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with high block trade transaction ratios and low 6-day transaction amount volatility. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly[29] **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the information embedded in block trades, but its performance varies depending on market conditions[29] - **Model Name**: Private Placement Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the event-driven strategy of private placements, considering factors such as market capitalization, rebalancing cycles, and position control[35] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed using the announcement date of private placements as the event trigger. Stocks are selected based on their market capitalization and other factors, and the portfolio is rebalanced periodically[35] **Model Evaluation**: The model's performance is influenced by regulatory changes and market sentiment, showing mixed results in different periods[35] --- Model Backtesting Results - **PB-ROE-50 Model** - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.76%, absolute return 1.71%; YTD excess return 2.84%, absolute return 27.48%[24] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 0.21%, absolute return 1.40%; YTD excess return 15.39%, absolute return 36.63%[24] - All Market: Weekly excess return -0.09%, absolute return 0.68%; YTD excess return 18.22%, absolute return 43.75%[24] - **Block Trade Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -0.16%, absolute return 0.61%; YTD excess return 39.03%, absolute return 69.06%[30] - **Private Placement Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -2.30%, absolute return -1.55%; YTD excess return -5.43%, absolute return 15.00%[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor (e.g., ROA, ROE) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the company's profitability and operational efficiency, such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE)[12][13][14] **Factor Construction Process**: - ROA: Calculated as $ \text{ROA} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Total Assets}} $ - ROE: Calculated as $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Shareholder's Equity}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: Profitability factors generally show positive returns, especially in CSI 300 and CSI 500 stock pools[12][14] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor (e.g., PB, PE, EP) **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the valuation level of stocks, such as Price-to-Book ratio (PB), Price-to-Earnings ratio (PE), and Earnings Yield (EP)[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - PB: Calculated as $ \text{PB} = \frac{\text{Market Price per Share}}{\text{Book Value per Share}} $ - PE: Calculated as $ \text{PE} = \frac{\text{Market Price per Share}}{\text{Earnings per Share}} $ - EP: Calculated as $ \text{EP} = \frac{\text{Earnings per Share}}{\text{Market Price per Share}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: Valuation factors like PB and EP show significant positive returns in multiple industries[21] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor (e.g., 5-day Reversal, 1-month Momentum) **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the trend-following or reversal behavior in stock prices over short-term periods[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - 5-day Reversal: Measures the return reversal over the past 5 days - 1-month Momentum: Measures the cumulative return over the past month **Factor Evaluation**: Momentum factors show mixed performance, with some negative returns in specific stock pools[12][14][16] - **Factor Name**: Liquidity Factor (e.g., Turnover Rate, Transaction Amount Volatility) **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the liquidity characteristics of stocks, such as turnover rate and transaction amount volatility[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Turnover Rate: Calculated as $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\text{Trading Volume}}{\text{Total Shares Outstanding}} $ - Transaction Amount Volatility: Standard deviation of transaction amounts over a specific period **Factor Evaluation**: Liquidity factors generally show positive returns, especially in the CSI 500 and liquidity 1500 stock pools[12][14][16] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Profitability Factors** - ROA: Weekly return 1.43% (CSI 300), 0.78% (CSI 500), 1.01% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - ROE: Weekly return 1.32% (CSI 300), 0.94% (CSI 500), 0.71% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Valuation Factors** - PB: Weekly return 0.67% (CSI 300), 0.77% (CSI 500), 1.06% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - EP: Weekly return -0.37% (CSI 300), 0.17% (CSI 500), 0.84% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Momentum Factors** - 5-day Reversal: Weekly return -1.25% (CSI 300), -0.48% (CSI 500), -1.44% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - 1-month Momentum: Weekly return 0.45% (CSI 300), 0.59% (CSI 500), 1.20% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Liquidity Factors** - Turnover Rate: Weekly return 0.75% (CSI 300), 1.68% (CSI 500), 0.84% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - Transaction Amount Volatility: Weekly return 0.47% (CSI 300), 1.01% (CSI 500), 0.56% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16]

2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 公募 REITs 扩围至商业不动产，二级市场价格波动下跌 ——REITs 月度观察（20251101-202501130） 要点 1、 一级市场 截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，我国公募 REITs 产品数量达 77 只，合计发行规模达 1993.01 亿元（不含扩募）。从底层资产类型来看，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日， 交通基础设施类发行规模最大，共发行 687.71 亿元，园区基础设施类 REITs 发 行规模次之，为 329.33 亿元。 根据上交所及深交所项目动态披露，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，共有 20 只 REITs 处于待上市状态，其中 13 只为首发 REITs，另外 7 只为待扩募 REITs。 2、 二级市场表现 价格走势：2025 年 11 月 1 日-2025 年 11 月 30 日（以下简称"本月"），我 国已上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动下行的趋势。与其他主流大类 资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>纯债>REITs>原油>美股>可转债>A 股。 从项目属性来看，产权类 REITs 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market rose slightly this week, and the equity market also had a small increase. Given the current volatility in the equity market, high - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face adjustment pressure, and trading convertible bonds is difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively consider convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From December 1, 2025, to December 5, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.08% (last week's change was -0.27%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +0.77% (last week's change was +2.82%). Since 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +16.27%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +21.60% [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) had weekly changes of +0.09%, -0.26%, -0.89%, -1.17%, and -1.31% respectively, with all but high - rated bonds declining [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) had weekly changes of -0.93%, -0.57%, +0.46%, -0.90%, and -1.37% respectively, with all but medium - scale convertible bonds declining [2]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had weekly changes of -2.74%, -1.23%, -1.67%, +0.11%, -0.89%, -1.31%, and -0.30% respectively, with all but medium - parity bonds declining [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of December 5, 2025, there were 407 outstanding convertible bonds (410 at the end of last week), with a balance of 556.996 billion yuan (561.091 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 129.56 yuan (130.12 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 90.38% (from the beginning of 2023 to December 5, 2025). The average convertible bond parity was 100.82 yuan (100.90 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 87.69%. The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 30.76% (30.39% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 34.51% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Given the current situation, it is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase are listed, including YaKe Convertible Bond, WeiDao Convertible Bond, etc., along with their underlying stocks, industries, latest closing prices, convertible bond increases, and underlying stock increases [20].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit activity due to insufficient demand and seasonal factors, with November loan growth expected to show a year-on-year decrease [1] - Government bonds remain the primary contributor to social financing, with the month-end growth rate projected to drop to approximately 8.4% [1] - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is forecasted to decline, leading to a slight widening of the M2-M1 growth differential compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Company Research on Andisu - Andisu is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, and has released the latest version of the "Mackev Nutrition Guide" to assist global feed manufacturers [2] - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in credit activity, with November's loan growth expected to remain lower year-on-year. The social financing growth is primarily supported by government bonds, with a projected month-end growth rate of around 8.4% [4][10]. - The economic environment shows signs of weak recovery, with corporate production activities slightly improving and external uncertainties diminishing. However, overall demand remains weak [4]. - The report predicts that November will see new RMB loans between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a month-end growth rate dropping to 6.3% to 6.4% [4][13]. - The structure of credit shows a seasonal rebound in corporate loans, while retail loans continue to face pressure, particularly in the mortgage sector [6][7]. Summary by Sections Credit Activity - November's new RMB loans are expected to be between 250 billion to 400 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion to 300 billion, leading to a month-end growth rate of 6.3% to 6.4% [4][10]. - Corporate short-term loans are anticipated to see a seasonal increase, while medium to long-term loans will also rise but remain limited due to weak demand [6]. Social Financing - The report forecasts new social financing of 2 to 2.2 trillion, with a month-end growth rate of 8.4% to 8.5%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 160 billion to 360 billion [10][11]. - Government bonds are expected to contribute significantly to social financing growth, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase [11]. Monetary Supply - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is projected to decline due to a high base effect from the previous year [17]. - The report notes a shift in government deposits towards resident and corporate deposits, impacting the overall deposit growth dynamics [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, to strengthen its leadership in animal health management. Additionally, the updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide will provide global feed manufacturers with systematic vitamin nutrition references [1][2]. - The company is expanding its product and service matrix, focusing on high-concentration sodium butyrate solutions, which align with the global trend of reducing antibiotic use in livestock and promoting sustainable nutrition [2][3]. - The company is accelerating the development of specialty products and deepening its layout in the animal nutrition and health sector, supported by a "dual pillar" strategy that aims to balance its business structure while maintaining its global leadership in methionine [3]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The launch of Sanion Tetra aims to enhance the company's product matrix in animal health resilience management and respond to industry trends [2]. - The updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide expands the classification of animal species and production stages, providing comprehensive updates on recommended values based on current feed efficiency levels and new formulation technologies [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from its dual pillar strategy while maintaining its leadership in the methionine industry. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profit of 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.57, and 0.67 yuan per share [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.866 billion, 20.545 billion, and 23.627 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.01%, 15.00%, and 15.00% respectively [10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 28.8% in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [12][13]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to be 11.1% in 2025, indicating a strong operational efficiency [12].

Group 1: Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the expansion of public REITs into the commercial real estate sector, providing opportunities to revitalize a trillion-yuan asset market and accelerate market expansion [1] - The introduction of public REITs comes at a time when the real estate sector is under pressure, prompting a shift from "heavy development" to "heavy operation" for companies [1] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory alignment and the importance of product valuation and operational quality in the short term, while anticipating accelerated market development with the expansion of product categories and regulatory improvements [1] Group 2: Company Research - The report notes that the company, Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ), has secured over 100 million USD in orders from North American data centers, leading to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan respectively [2] - The report indicates that as electricity demand in North America continues to grow, the company's service scope is expanding, and the power sector is expected to create a third growth curve for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]