期 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------------------------------| | | 公司快报 \n证券研究报告 \n物流综合 | | 投资评级 | 买入 -A | | | 维持评级 | | 6 个月目标价 | 4.20 元 | | 股价 (2024-07-08) 3.73 | 元 | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元 | ) 14,495.75 | | 流通市值(百万元 | ) 14,495.75 | | 总股本(百万股 | ) 3,886.26 | | 流通股本(百万股 | ) 3,886.26 | | 12 个月价格区间 | 2.21/3.93 元 | zhouzhe1@essence.com.cn 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 数据来源：Wind 资讯，国投证券研究中心预测 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 3 本报告署名分析师声明，本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，勤勉尽 责、诚实守信。本人对本报告的内容和观点负责，保证信息来源合法合规、 ...

- The company is a leading enterprise in automotive lightweighting, with over 85% of its revenue coming from automotive parts[1][2] - The company has expanded its production capacity and diversified its product matrix, including forging and extrusion processes, to further enhance its market position[2][3] - The company has a stable gross profit margin of 24-25% in recent years, with low period expenses and good cash flow[1][2] - The company has a significant presence in the Tesla supply chain, with Tesla previously accounting for over 50% of its revenue, but this has decreased to below 50% as the company diversified its customer base[1][2] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Huzhou and Ningbo, and a new production base in Mexico, which will significantly increase its output and revenue[2][3] - The company's valuation is at a low point since its listing, with a PE (TTM) of 13.6X, comparable to its peers[3] - The company's convertible bond, Sheng 24, has a rating of AA- and is expected to be listed on July 10, 2024, with an estimated listing price of 110-115 yuan[6][7][8] - The convertible bond has a 6-year term, with an initial conversion price of 12.89 yuan, and a dilution rate of 23.28% for the total A-share capital[7][8] - The bond has a coupon rate structure of 0.20%, 0.40%, 0.60%, 1.50%, 1.80%, and 2.00% for each respective year, with a redemption price of 112 yuan at maturity[8][9] - The company's main customers include Tesla, Polaris, ZF, and other Tier 1 suppliers, with a decreasing customer concentration over the years[1][2][21] - The company's gross profit margin is in the mid-to-high range of the industry, with a stable level around 25% in recent years[21][22] - The company's cash flow is stable and good, with a net cash ratio generally above 100%[23][25] - The company is a leader in the field of precision aluminum alloy parts, with a diverse product range including automotive, industrial, and mold products[13][15] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Huzhou and Ningbo, and a new production base in Mexico, which will significantly increase its output and revenue[2][3][28] - The company's ROE is stable around 12%, with a stable profitability[28][30]

风险提示：统计口径误差。 固定收益定期报告 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 2 1.库存周期概览 2024 年 5 月，工业企业产成品存货同比上升 0.5 个百分点至 3.6%。 固定收益定期报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 7 月 8 日 上下游回摆"主动去"_库存周期概览 (2024 年 7 月更新 ) \n2024 年 5 月，工业企业产成品存货同比上升 0.5 个百分点至 3.6% 。 | | 尹睿哲 SAC 执业证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 13.69 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 12.26 CNY as of July 5, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 730-770 million CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 86.76%-97.00%. The net profit for Q2 alone is projected to be 377-417 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 75.19%-93.76% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.03%-18.37% [1][2]. - The company's competitive advantages in advanced biomanufacturing, including synthetic biology and AI technology, are expected to drive long-term growth and cost control [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in synthetic biology, with products like rosmarinic acid and 5-hydroxytryptophan already in production, and plans for further commercialization [3][8]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 4,823.3 million CNY in 2023 to 5,520.4 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.5%. Net profit is expected to increase from 940.6 million CNY in 2023 to 1,217.0 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 29.4% [10][11]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 19.5% in 2023 to 22.0% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [11]. Market Conditions - The antibiotic intermediate market is showing strong demand, with the company benefiting from both volume and price increases in its main products [1][2]. - The price of cephalosporin intermediates has rebounded slightly in 2024, contributing positively to the company's performance [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is collaborating with Jinchan Technology to optimize fermentation processes using AI, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [2]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its synthetic biology product line, which includes high-value natural products and bulk compounds, potentially opening a second growth curve [8].

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 欧洲市场家电公司表现 数据来源： Wind、彭博、国投证券研究中心 注：预测数据皆为彭博一致预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------|-------|--------------------|-------|--------------|---------------------|------------| | | 近五日涨跌幅 | 2022 | 收入增速 \n2023E | 2022 | PE \n2023E | PE（扣除FCFF \n2022 | ） \n2023E | | 富世华 | 3.9% | 15% | -1% | 16 | 17 | 17 | 15 | | 伊莱克斯 | -0.9% | 7% | 0% | -11 | -11 | -15 | -11 | | 赛博 | 7.4% | -1% | 1% | 19 | 14 | 19 | 12 | | 昕诺飞 | 6.5% | 10% | -11% | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 ...

国投证券研究报告 2024年7月8日 国投证券消费 2024W27 一 周 看 图 家电|食饮|医药|轻工|纺服 图说茅台 分析师 李奕臻 S1450520020001 赵国防 S1450521120008 韩星雨 S1450522080002 陈伟浩 S1450523050002 贺 鑫 S1450522110001 胡家东 S1450523070001 王 尧 S1450523110002 陆偲聪 S1450522100001 马 帅 S1450518120001 罗乾生 S1450522010002 余 昆 S1450521070002 杨小天 S1450524040003 冯俊曦 S1450520010002 连国强 S1450523020002 李 奔 S1450523110001 联系人 侯雅楠、刘夏凡 图说茅台 食饮行业首席分析师赵国防: 高端需求整体承压,茅台供给上半年增加较多是今 年价格疲软的主要原因,其中黄牛情绪差、电商补 贴是重要的边际变化。茅台近期在资本市场和销售 层面积极表态是茅台批价中期稳定的重要标志事件, 短期有望修复。中长期看茅台批价和人均收入有正 相关关系,且茅五消费场景差别 ...

国投证券研究报告 2024年7月8日 国投证券消费 2024W27 一 周 看 图 家电|食饮|医药|轻工|纺服 图说茅台 分析师 李奕臻 S1450520020001 赵国防 S1450521120008 韩星雨 S1450522080002 陈伟浩 S1450523050002 贺 鑫 S1450522110001 胡家东 S1450523070001 王 尧 S1450523110002 陆偲聪 S1450522100001 马 帅 S1450518120001 罗乾生 S1450522010002 余 昆 S1450521070002 杨小天 S1450524040003 冯俊曦 S1450520010002 连国强 S1450523020002 李 奔 S1450523110001 联系人 侯雅楠、刘夏凡 图说茅台 食饮行业首席分析师赵国防: 高端需求整体承压,茅台供给上半年增加较多是今 年价格疲软的主要原因,其中黄牛情绪差、电商补 贴是重要的边际变化。茅台近期在资本市场和销售 层面积极表态是茅台批价中期稳定的重要标志事件, 短期有望修复。中长期看茅台批价和人均收入有正 相关关系,且茅五消费场景差别 ...

2024 年 07 月 08 日 建筑 行业周报 地产政策初现成效 6 月销售数据亮眼, 央企经营稳健海外订单高增,持续看好 低估值建筑央国企表现 本周投资建议: 继 517 央行发布地产新政以来,多个城市相关政策措施陆续落地,6 月百强房企销售操盘金额和部分一线城市二手房销售均有所好转。6 月,TOP100 房企实现销售操盘金额环比增长 36.3%,同比降低 16.7%; 二手房来看,前期四个一线城市持续优化购房政策,二手房成交表现 突出,6 月上海/北京/深圳/广州二手房成交套数(宗数)环比 5 月 分别增长 48.8%/13.6%/9.6%/37.9%,北京/深圳/广州二手房成交套 数 yoy+23.1%/65.5%/26.1%。 7 月以来,多地持续优化楼市政策,本周多地出台新一轮楼市新政, 二线城市南京、贵阳等上调公积金额度,房地产宽松政策基调持续, 多个城市相关政策措施陆续落地,均有望助力后续新房和二手房销售 数据改善,对建筑行业地产链设计、房建承包和装修装饰等企业的基 本面和估值修复形成驱动,建议关注地产链建筑企业投资机会。 本周建筑行业整体有所回调,央企板块回调幅度小于建筑行业,其中 中国建筑 ...

2024 年 07 月 08 日 农林牧渔 关注二育及出栏节奏对短期供给及猪 行业周报 证券研究报告 价影响 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 生猪养殖:需求低位,关注出栏节奏及养殖情绪对猪价的传导 首选股票 目标价(元) 评级 价格端:本周生猪均价 18.05 元/kg,周环比+2.09%,两周环比-1.38%; 仔猪价格 702 元/头,周环比-7.27%,两周环比-5.91%。根据 iFinD 数据,本周猪肉批发价格 24.31 元/kg,周环比-0.07%。 供给端:本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.11 万头,周环比+1.92%。 周观点:需求低位,关注出栏节奏及养殖情绪对猪价的传导。涌益咨 询生猪周报显示,本周猪肉批发价格持平偏弱,终端需求维持低位, 难以支撑价格上涨。但周内供应节奏偏缓,同时二育群体前期抛压离 场后存栏压力缓解,价格跌至 17.5 元/公斤左右后,二育入场积极性 抬升,受养殖端情绪传导,支撑周内生猪价格破压上行。 经历 2023 年养殖深度亏损和能繁母猪去化,今年四月能繁母猪相比 2022 年高点已下降约 9%,与 2021 年高点相比下降了近 13%,产能去 化幅度已足以支撑周期反转 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 08 日 农林牧渔 关注二育及出栏节奏对短期供给及猪 证券研究报告 价影响 生猪养殖:需求低位,关注出栏节奏及养殖情绪对猪价的传导 投资评级 领先大市-A 维持评级 首选股票 目标价(元) 评级 价格端:本周生猪均价 18.05 元/kg,周环比+2.09%,两周环比-1.38%; 仔猪价格 702 元/头,周环比-7.27%,两周环比-5.91%。根据 iFinD 数据,本周猪肉批发价格 24.31 元/kg,周环比-0.07%。 供给端:本周生猪日均屠宰量为 13.11 万头,周环比+1.92%。 周观点:需求低位,关注出栏节奏及养殖情绪对猪价的传导。涌益咨 询生猪周报显示,本周猪肉批发价格持平偏弱,终端需求维持低位, 难以支撑价格上涨。但周内供应节奏偏缓,同时二育群体前期抛压离 场后存栏压力缓解,价格跌至 17.5 元/公斤左右后,二育入场积极性 抬升,受养殖端情绪传导,支撑周内生猪价格破压上行。 经历 2023 年养殖深度亏损和能繁母猪去化,今年四月能繁母猪相比 2022 年高点已下降约 9%,与 2021 年高点 ...