股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 —永艺股份 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38038184 | | liujiakun029641@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------| | | | | 毛宇翔 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38038672 | | | maoyuxiang029547@gtjas.com | | | S0880524080013 | | 本报告导读： 公司业绩在内外销双端发力下继续取得亮眼业绩，自身优异的战略落地及执行能力 进一步得到确认。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持盈利预期及"增持"评级。公司业绩符合预期，因而我们维持 盈利预期，预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 1.02/1.26/1.54 元，参考行 业估值水平，给予公司 2024 年 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the 3C equipment industry, driven by the global expansion of Apple's supply chain and the potential for increased equipment investment [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Apple's supply chain is shifting towards India and Southeast Asia, with plans to increase India's share of production to 25% by 2025, up from 13% in 2024 [3][6] - The shift in production capacity will drive demand for 3C equipment, particularly in SMT (solder paste printing, dispensing, welding), assembly testing, and inspection equipment [3][6] - The automation rate in Apple's production lines, especially in backend assembly and appearance defect detection, is expected to increase, leading to additional equipment purchases [3][6] - If Apple increases India's production share to 38%, it could drive equipment investment of 9.85 billion yuan, representing a 75% elasticity relative to annual equipment renewal demand [3][6] Investment Recommendations and Target Companies - **Backend Assembly**: Recommended companies include **Bozhon Precision Industry Technology**, with **Saiteng Co** as a beneficiary [8] - **Appearance Defect Detection**: Recommended companies include **Opt Machine Vision Tech** and **Quick Intelligent Equipment**, with **Saiteng Co**, **Lingyun Guang**, **Tianzhun Technology**, and **Rongqi Technology** as beneficiaries [8] - **SMT Segment**: Recommended companies include **Quick Intelligent Equipment**, with **Kegong Precision Machinery**, **Anda Intelligent**, and **Zhuozhao Dispensing** as beneficiaries [8] - **Testing Segment**: Beneficiary companies include **Yanmai Technology**, **Zhilifang**, **Bojie Co**, **Juzi Technology**, and **Core Technology** [8] - **CNC Segment**: Recommended companies include **Chuangshi Technology**, with **Yuhuan CNC** as a beneficiary [8] 3C Assembly Capacity: Mainland Dominance with Global Expansion Trends - Mainland China dominates 3C assembly, accounting for 90% of Apple's production capacity in 2023 [6][10] - Apple plans to increase India's production share to 25% by 2025, with major suppliers like **Luxshare Precision** and **Foxconn** actively expanding in India and Southeast Asia [6][10] - **Luxshare Precision** and **Foxconn** are expected to increase their market share in this global expansion, further driving demand for domestic 3C equipment [6][10] 3C Equipment: Domestic Manufacturers Lead, India Relies on Imports from China - Domestic 3C equipment manufacturers have grown rapidly, with companies like **Bozhon Precision Industry Technology** and **Saiteng Co** becoming core suppliers to Apple [10][25] - India's manufacturing sector is relatively underdeveloped, relying heavily on imports of electronic manufacturing equipment from China, which accounts for 40.81% of India's imports in this category [40][43] Apple's Global Production Layout: Reasons and Impact on Equipment Suppliers - **Supply Chain Security**: Apple is reducing reliance on a single country by diversifying production to India, Vietnam, and other regions [41][43] - **Market Potential**: India's growing middle class and high-end smartphone market present significant opportunities for Apple [45][46] - **Cost Considerations**: India offers lower labor and land costs, but challenges remain in infrastructure and power supply [49][50] - **Impact on Equipment Suppliers**: Apple's production shift to India will drive demand for 3C equipment, with domestic suppliers expected to benefit significantly [51][52]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" with a previous rating of "Overweight" as well [2] Core Viewpoints - The prices of bulk gases such as oxygen, nitrogen, and argon have shown a significant week-on-week rebound, while the price of rare gases like neon has declined, and krypton, xenon, and helium prices have remained stable. With the recovery of downstream demand, bulk gas prices are expected to gradually warm up [4][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Bulk Gases - As of October 27, 2024, the average prices for bulk gases are as follows: - Liquid oxygen: 408.3 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.1% and a monthly increase of 11.2% [4][6] - Liquid nitrogen: 433.8 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.8% and a monthly increase of 7.9% [4][6] - Liquid argon: 641.9 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.6% and a monthly increase of 10.5% [4][6] Rare Gases - As of October 27, 2024, the average prices for rare gases are as follows: - Neon: 115 CNY/m³, with a weekly decrease of 4.2% and a yearly decrease of 54.0% [4][6] - Krypton: 330 CNY/m³, stable week-on-week and a yearly decrease of 49.2% [4][6] - Xenon: 29,500 CNY/m³, stable week-on-week and a yearly decrease of 49.6% [4][6] - Helium (40L bottle): 633.5 CNY/bottle, stable week-on-week and a yearly decrease of 44.9% [4][6] Demand and Supply Analysis - Downstream demand is gradually recovering, with the apparent consumption of rebar at 2.435 million tons for the week ending October 25, 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 17.76% and a week-on-week decrease of 5.56% [4] - The steel price index stands at 98.57, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.31% but a month-on-month increase of 6.16% [4] - The operating load rate of air separation plants has not changed significantly week-on-week [4] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Hangzhou Oxygen Plant, Shaanxi鼓动力, with beneficiary stocks being Huate Gas, Qiaoyuan Co., Guanggang Gas, China Shipbuilding Special Gas, Kaimete Gas, Jinhong Gas, and Heyuan Gas [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal sector fund holdings have reverted to the historical median level since 2020, indicating a shift towards long-term "dividend" investment strategies, focusing on core dividend leaders within the index [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to concentrate on high-certainty investments rather than speculating on potential policy changes, as the coal sector's fundamentals have exceeded expectations [4]. - The report highlights that the industry’s Return on Equity (ROE) has bottomed out since early 2023, suggesting a favorable outlook for dividend assets amid a potential downward resonance in domestic and overseas interest rate cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The coal sector's fund holdings decreased from 1.5% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3 2024, with the top ten coal stocks' market value share dropping from 0.59% to 0.40% [4]. - The number of coal stocks in the top ten holdings increased from 24 in Q2 2024 to 34 in Q3 2024, indicating a higher willingness to allocate to industry leaders with strong profit certainty [4]. - The top five coal stocks by fund holdings are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, Huabei Mining, and Xinjie Energy, with respective fund holding ratios of 1.08%, 2.57%, 2.11%, 5.21%, and 8.60% [4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinjie Energy, which benefits from Shaanxi's energy sector [4]. - For the coking coal sector, it suggests leading companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma, while also recommending Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Huayang Co. under the expectation of economic stabilization [4]. Market Performance - The report notes that the coal industry index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in Q3 2024 [6]. - The report provides detailed statistics on fund holdings and changes in stock ratios, indicating a mixed trend in institutional investment across various coal companies [11][13][14]. Valuation Metrics - The report includes valuation metrics for key coal companies, with China Shenhua having a market cap of approximately 813.22 billion and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.19, while other companies like Shaanxi Coal and China Coal Energy also show favorable valuation indicators [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is 2.125 billion, a year-on-year decline of 30.02%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -206 million [2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 773 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.73% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.65%, with a net profit of -36 million, indicating a reduction in losses [2]. - The report highlights that traditional business has resumed growth, while emerging businesses are gradually ramping up, leading to improved profitability and a significant increase in orders on hand [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, excluding the impact of large orders, revenue grew by 6% year-on-year, and in Q3, it grew by 29% year-on-year when excluding large orders [2]. - The small molecule API CDMO revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.968 billion, with a growth of approximately 3% after excluding large orders [2]. - New business segments, including small molecule formulation CDMO, generated 101 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of about 65% [2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 23.3%, down 22.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to high-margin large orders delivered in the same period last year and capacity ramp-up effects [2]. Order Growth and Strategic Partnerships - As of Q3 2024, the small molecule API CDMO business has seen orders on hand increase by over 40% year-on-year, ensuring performance growth [2]. - In October 2024, the company entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with CRO Yinos, enhancing resource integration for high-quality, efficient end-to-end services [2]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2024-2025 to -0.41 and 0.30 (previously 1.01 and 1.22), and introduces a 2026 EPS forecast of 0.80 [2]. - The target price is revised down to 23.70 from 34.75, based on a comparable company PB valuation of 2.37X for 2025 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement of Leflunomide, while the health product segment continues to grow significantly. The company's innovative pipeline is actively advancing, with several potential innovative products expected to enhance performance [1][2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022A: 17,143 million - 2023A: 16,646 million (down 2.9%) - 2024E: 16,088 million (down 3.4%) - 2025E: 17,505 million (up 8.8%) - 2026E: 19,432 million (up 11.0%) [2] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2022A: 1,503 million - 2023A: 1,443 million (down 4.0%) - 2024E: 1,509 million (up 4.6%) - 2025E: 1,648 million (up 9.2%) - 2026E: 1,872 million (up 13.6%) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.80 - 2023A: 0.77 - 2024E: 0.81 - 2025E: 0.88 - 2026E: 1.00 [2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 11.5% - 2023A: 10.5% - 2024E: 10.1% - 2025E: 10.2% - 2026E: 10.7% [2] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - 2023A: 14.47 - 2024E: 13.84 - 2025E: 12.67 - 2026E: 11.15 [2] Performance Insights - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 11.899 billion (down 6.0%) and a net profit of 1.112 billion (up 2.6%), which is in line with expectations. The third quarter alone saw revenue of 3.664 billion (down 6.8%) and a net profit of 335 million (up 25.0%) [2][5]. - The respiratory segment is under short-term pressure due to centralized procurement, while the health product segment is experiencing strong growth driven by increased online promotion [2][5]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has received registration approvals for several innovative products, including inhalation powder and suspension solutions, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth. The anti-influenza drug TG-1000 is anticipated to be submitted for NDA in August 2024, with potential sales exceeding 1 billion [2][5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the remote sensing industry, being the first in China to provide integrated services across the entire remote sensing satellite industry chain, with promising growth prospects in commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [3][20]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.15 billion, 3.10 billion, and 4.15 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with EPS projected at 0.18, 0.78, and 1.53 RMB [13][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages through its comprehensive industry chain layout, including the construction of the "Nüwa Constellation" and the development of the PIE-Engine platform, which are expected to drive long-term growth [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have a reasonable valuation of 76.77 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 29.38 RMB based on a PE ratio of 37.5 for 2025 [8][11]. 1.1 Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 18.4% in 2024, 44.2% in 2025, and 33.7% in 2026 [9][13]. - The gross margin for the self-developed software sales is anticipated to remain high at around 95% from 2024 to 2026 [12]. 1.2 Valuation Analysis - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, with a focus on comparable companies in the commercial aerospace sector [15][17]. - The average PS ratio for comparable companies is noted to be 3.41, and a conservative PS of 2.5 is applied to the company for a reasonable market value of 77.62 billion RMB [17][18]. 2. Industry Leadership - The company is recognized as a leading player in the satellite internet sector and is actively pursuing the integration of remote sensing and geographic information software [20][22]. - The "Nüwa Constellation" project aims to enhance the company's global remote sensing data acquisition capabilities, achieving a revisit time of one hour and providing sub-meter level observation capabilities [21][22]. 3. Business Development and Competitive Edge - The company has established a robust competitive edge through its three main business lines: spatial infrastructure planning and construction, PIE+ industry products, and cloud service products [24]. - The company is expanding its international presence, having established branches in various countries and engaging in projects along the "Belt and Road" initiative [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's revenue growth has slowed due to a decrease in domestic bidding, but an improvement is expected starting from Q4 2024. Overseas markets, particularly in Europe and cost-effective segments, are anticipated to maintain higher growth rates [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 147 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a 5.39% increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32 million yuan, a significant increase of 345% [4] - The substantial profit increase is attributed to the reversal of previously accrued equity incentive expenses and receipt of large government subsidies [4] - The EPS forecast for 2024 has been raised to 0.42 yuan from the previous 0.30 yuan, with 2025 and 2026 EPS estimates remaining at 1.22 yuan and 2.14 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 147 million yuan (+5.39%), net profit was 32 million yuan (+345%), and non-recurring net profit was 16 million yuan (+310%) with a non-recurring net profit margin of 11% [4] - The company expects revenue to improve in Q4 2024 due to anticipated equipment updates and a revitalized sales team [4] - Accounts receivable decreased to 276 million yuan by the end of Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend [4] Market Outlook - The domestic bidding slowdown has pressured revenue, but improvements are expected as equipment updates are projected to take effect in Q4 2024 and continue into 2025 [4] - The company is increasing its sales personnel in cost-effective markets and has received CE certification for its AQ300 product in Europe, which is expected to enhance market share [4] Product Development - Continuous R&D investments have led to product iterations, including the launch of upgraded AQ300 and new products in hepatobiliary and urology fields [4] - The company aims to enhance its academic influence and competitive strength through ongoing product upgrades [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [4]. - Positive policies are expected to continue, alleviating concerns about future demand [7][9]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products was 8.938 million tons, a decrease of 1.88% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 7.54% [16]. - The production volume of steel reached 8.8058 million tons, an increase of 7.16% week-on-week [24]. - Total inventory of steel maintained a downward trend, with a total inventory of 12.5932 million tons, down 1.03% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices increased by 1.07% to 757.00 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices decreased by 2.49% to 1960 CNY/ton [31][32]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 153.4168 million tons, a 0.29% increase week-on-week [36]. Production and Profitability - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 82.14%, an increase of 0.46% week-on-week [19]. - The simulated profit for rebar production decreased to 271.8 CNY/ton, down 21.4 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased to 181.8 CNY/ton, up 18.6 CNY/ton [27][29]. Policy and Market Outlook - Recent government meetings emphasized the implementation of a package of incremental policies to stimulate demand, particularly in the automotive sector [9][10]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, reducing negative impacts on steel demand, while infrastructure and manufacturing sectors are projected to maintain steady growth [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to clear excess capacity, which will help alleviate the balance sheet pressure on equipment manufacturers. The industry is experiencing significant catalysts, including a meeting by the China Photovoltaic Association to prevent vicious competition and a review by the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding potential removal of anti-dumping duties on Chinese photovoltaic cells [4][3]. - Tesla's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with CEO Elon Musk highlighting the advancements in humanoid robots, particularly the dexterous hand technology. The report continues to favor investment opportunities in the humanoid robot supply chain, focusing on key components [4][3]. - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, supported by favorable policies and ongoing legislative efforts. The report suggests monitoring the progress of low-altitude infrastructure development and investment opportunities in related components [4][3]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the importance of energy consumption standards in the silicon material and wafer segments, recommending attention to manufacturers with superior energy consumption metrics in the monocrystalline furnace segment [4]. - The industry is accelerating capacity clearance, which is beneficial for optimizing the balance sheets of leading equipment manufacturers [4]. Humanoid Robots - Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots, particularly the dexterous hand, are highlighted as a significant investment opportunity. The report suggests focusing on the "3+3" components: three drive control components (screw, reducer, motor) and three sensor components (visual, tactile, force) [4]. Low-altitude Economy - Continuous policy support for the low-altitude economy is noted, with various government initiatives aimed at fostering this new industry. The report indicates that the development of low-altitude infrastructure and related components presents investment opportunities [4]. Equipment Manufacturing - The report outlines three investment logic pillars for the equipment manufacturing sector: technology-driven growth, global equipment capabilities, and opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in overcapacity industries [4]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies in engineering machinery, humanoid robots, oil service equipment, machine tools, 3C equipment, and mining equipment [4].