Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for increased fiscal policy efforts to boost economic growth and recommends investing in resilient core leaders with medium to long-term growth potential, categorized into cyclical growth leaders and segmented growth leaders [5][12] - The basic chemical index experienced a decline of 6.45% during the week, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors, indicating a challenging market environment [8][10] - Despite a weak fundamental state for most chemical products, the report highlights a recovery in market confidence and expectations for future development, suggesting that the market may reassess the cost advantages of leading companies [12][19] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.56%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 3.41% during the week [8] - The basic chemical index saw a decline of 6.45%, with significant price increases in sulfur (+9.76%) and raw salt (+9.38%) among key chemical products [12] 2. Investment Recommendations - Recommended cyclical growth leaders include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group, while segmented growth leaders include Ruifeng New Materials and Blue Sky Technology [12][13] - The report suggests that companies with resilient performance and growth potential should be prioritized for investment [5][12] 3. Key Company Tracking - Wanhua Chemical reported a slight increase in the price of polymer MDI, while Hualu Hengsheng's product prices showed a rebound, indicating positive trends in specific segments [15][18] - Juhua Co. achieved expected performance in Q2 2024, benefiting from its leading position in refrigerant quotas [19] - Sailun Tire maintained strong performance with significant year-on-year profit growth, supported by multiple projects in progress [21] 4. Industry Trends - The report notes a recovery in confidence within the basic chemical sector, with expectations for improved performance in the coming quarters despite current challenges [12][19] - The new materials sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in areas with high technological barriers and strong market demand [24]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottom phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [2]. - Recent favorable policies have boosted demand expectations, and mergers and acquisitions may accelerate [2]. - The overall market sentiment is positive due to government support for local debt risk resolution and stabilization of the real estate market, which is expected to gradually eliminate negative impacts on steel demand [2][6]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 8.9283 million tons, an increase of 10.72% week-on-week; production was 8.6382 million tons, up 1.20% week-on-week; total inventory decreased to 13.101 million tons, down 2.16% week-on-week, maintaining the lowest level for the same period since 2015 [2][15][22]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 80.79%, up 1.22% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate was 87.51%, an increase of 1.9% [19]. Price Trends - Last week, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai decreased by 20 CNY/ton to 3660 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.54%; hot-rolled coil prices fell by 70 CNY/ton to 3680 CNY/ton, a drop of 1.87% [6][26]. - The average transaction volume of construction materials decreased by 6.38% week-on-week [15]. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore spot prices fell by 26 CNY/ton to 781.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.22%; the main iron ore futures price dropped by 32.50 CNY/ton to 789.00 CNY/ton, down 3.96% [28]. - Coking coal prices rose by 100 CNY/ton to 1750 CNY/ton, while futures prices decreased by 62 CNY/ton to 1484 CNY/ton, down 4.01% [28]. Profitability and Industry Outlook - The profitability of steel companies has significantly improved, with the profit rate for 247 steel companies reaching 71.43%, an increase of 33.77 percentage points week-on-week [19]. - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating, highlighting that many steel companies have a price-to-book (PB) ratio below 1, with some below 0.5, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [3][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates an improvement in thermal power generation and profitability in Q3 2024, with a stable coal price environment supporting this trend [6][17]. - Water power growth is expected to stabilize, while the performance of new energy operators will show divergence, and nuclear power remains generally stable [6][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights from Last Week - The report highlights the consensus and divergence regarding the peak summer electricity demand, with expectations of improved thermal power utilization rates in Q3 2024 [6][17]. - The report notes that the coal prices have remained relatively stable, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 thermal coal at 848 CNY/ton, showing minimal fluctuation [6][17]. 2. Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity sector has faced declines, with water power down by 3.65%, thermal power down by 5.27%, and new energy sectors also experiencing declines [21][24]. - The report provides insights into individual stock performances, with Zhaoxin Co. leading gains at +14.98% [27]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes a decrease in domestic port coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 thermal coal price at 850 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week [33][36]. - The report also highlights the increase in electricity prices in Guangdong, with the average transaction price reaching 0.352 CNY/kWh, up 22.3% week-on-week [38]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends selecting high-quality stocks in various segments: for thermal power, it suggests Guodian Power, Sheneng Co., and Huadian International; for water power, it recommends Yangtze Power and Chuanwei Energy; for nuclear power, it suggests China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power; and for new energy, it recommends Yunnan Energy Investment [18][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][13]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the fiscal and tax system reform has transitioned from planning to implementation, with IT construction needs accelerating [3][4]. - The Ministry of Finance's recent announcements indicate a solid foundation for funding sources and the introduction of more incremental policy measures [4]. - The report emphasizes that the fiscal IT construction will be the first to benefit from the reform measures, with a focus on improving budget systems and fiscal transfer payment systems [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the transition of fiscal and tax system reform from planning to implementation, with significant changes expected in the coming years [3][4]. - It notes that the Ministry of Finance plans to introduce a series of reform measures that are mature and tangible, particularly in the fiscal sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Yonyou Network (用友网络) with a target price of 11.06, projected EPS of 0.07 for 2024, and a PE ratio of 79 [8]. - Kingdee International (金蝶国际) with a target price of 9.33, projected EPS of -0.01 for 2024, and a PE ratio of 199 [8]. - TP-Link Software (普联软件) with a target price of 18.90, projected EPS of 0.77 for 2024, and a PE ratio of 25 [8]. - Beneficiary stocks include: Tax Friend Co. (税友股份), China Software (中国软件), Boss Software (博思软件), Zhongke Jiangnan (中科江南), and Ji Qi Software (久其软件) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - In September 2024, the domestic AI native applications reached a Monthly Active Users (MAU) of 125 million, growing over 1.5 times since the beginning of the year, with ByteDance launching its first AI headset [2][4] - The media sector index fell by 9.67%, ranking last among 31 industries, suggesting a need for strategic investment in high-growth verticals [3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic AI Native Applications MAU Exceeds 100 Million - The MAU for domestic AI native applications reached 125 million in September 2024, up from 49.38 million at the start of the year, marking a growth of over 1.5 times [7] - The top five AI applications account for 62.3% of the total MAU, with ByteDance's Doubao leading at 47.02 million MAU, a 16.6% increase [7][10] - Global rankings show ChatGPT at 225 million MAU, with Doubao following at 47.02 million, indicating strong competition in the AI application market [11] 2. ByteDance Launches AI Smart Headset - ByteDance introduced its first AI smart headset, Ola Friend, on October 10, 2024, integrating its Doubao model for enhanced user interaction [12] - The headset is priced at 1199 yuan and is set to be officially released on October 17, 2024 [12][13] 3. Weekly Industry and Company News - The media sector index's decline indicates a challenging environment, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong growth potential [3][6] - Notable companies recommended for investment include Shanghai Film, Kayi Network, and Meitu [11] 4. Media Listed Company Announcements - Various companies in the media sector have made announcements regarding new projects, investments, and financial updates, reflecting ongoing activity in the industry [24][25][26] 5. Industry Key Data Updates - The report includes updates on box office performance and market trends, highlighting the competitive landscape within the media industry [31][32]

宏 观 研 究 021-38038433 hanchaohui@gtjas.com 事 件 点 评 张剑宇(研究助理) 021-38674711 zhangjianyu029568@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880124030031 证 券 研 究 报 告 修复资产负债表的起点 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) 010-83939779 huangrunan@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 ——2024 年 9 月通胀数据点评 本报告导读： 本月物价数据依然呈现内需不足和私人部门缩表之间相互交织，其中核心 CPI 同 比接近转负。因此，本轮政策组合拳出台的时点相当及时，且直指当前经济的核心 症结，防止经济陷入"债务-通缩"螺旋。未来的一个阶段，微观主体的信心得以 修复、债务负担系统缓释，对于稳内需具有重要意义，可以说，我们迈出了修复资 产负债表的重要一步。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 9 月 CPI 同比增速+0.4%（市场预期+0.6%），环比+0.0%；PPI 同比增速-2.8% （市场预期-2.5%），环比-0.6%。通胀读数回落，但我 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company or sector discussed Core Insights - In the second week of October, the new stock index and the near-term new stock index fell by 3.09% and 1.94% respectively, following a market-wide correction after significant gains at the end of September [2][3] - The newly listed company, Qiangbang New Materials, saw an average first-day increase of 1424.08%, with A/B class accounts yielding returns of 372,300 and 113,100 respectively, marking the highest returns for A class accounts in 2024 [3][19] - The trading activity in the new stock sector has decreased, with a projected stable number and scale of unlocks in the third week of October [3][11] Summary by Sections New Stock Market Performance - The new stock index and near-term new stock index experienced declines of 3.09% and 1.94% respectively during the second week of October, with the overall market showing a correction after a strong performance in late September [3][5] - The new stock index's deviation from the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 133.38%, while the near-term new stock index's deviation dropped to -17.57% [5][11] Trading Activity - The trading activity in the new stock sector has decreased, with the turnover rate for the new stock index dropping by 5.4974 percentage points and the near-term new stock index by 7.1158 percentage points compared to the previous week [11][12] - The total net active selling in the new stock sector reached 7.26 billion, a significant increase from the previous week [13] Valuation Metrics - As of October 11, the new stock index's PE (TTM) was 52.8X, while the near-term new stock index's PE (TTM) was 40.8X, reflecting a divergence in valuations [8][10] - The latest PB (LF, mainland) for the new stock index and near-term new stock index were 2.9X and 4.5X respectively, with historical percentile levels of 35.0% and 59.7% [10][11] Unlocking Events - In the second week of October, a total of 8 new stocks were unlocked, with a total market value of 2.479 billion, indicating a low unlocking scale [16][17] - The third week of October is expected to see 8 new stocks unlocked, with a projected total market value of 2.557 billion [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [8]. Core Insights - The coal sector is currently focused on two main investment themes: "grasping cyclical elasticity," particularly in the coking coal segment linked to real estate and infrastructure, and "focusing on core index stocks," with a positive outlook on key index constituents [9]. - The valuation of the coal sector is undergoing a transformation, reflecting profound changes in supply and demand dynamics, gradually becoming more utility-like. This shift is also influenced by a declining risk-free rate, making high-dividend assets more attractive to investors [10]. - The report highlights the potential for fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments to exceed expectations, indicating that upcoming policies may provide significant support for the sector [10]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of October 11, 2024, the price of Q5500 thermal coal at Huanghua Port is 867 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton (-1.1%) from the previous week [12]. - The report anticipates that the current price drop during the off-season will be less severe than market expectations, with a potential bottom around 830-840 CNY/ton [10]. - Inventory levels at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.14 million tons, down 4.6% from the previous week [26]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increased to 2010 CNY/ton, up 140 CNY/ton (7.5%) from the previous week [37]. - Domestic coking coal prices are rising while overseas prices are falling, with Australian coking coal prices at 222 USD/ton, up 18 USD/ton (8.8%) [44]. - The report notes that the worst period for raw material prices has likely passed, with steel production recovering [10]. Long-term Contract Prices - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 thermal coal at northern ports is 699 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.3% increase from the previous month [32]. - The long-term contract price for coking coal remains stable, with the Shanxi coking coal index holding at 1363 points [63]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.97% increase compared to a 0.60% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [77]. - Key stocks such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their high profitability and stability [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The launch of the "Pure Blood Harmony" public beta significantly accelerates the Harmony ecosystem, with over one million users applying for access within a week [4]. - The HarmonyOS NEXT system has improved user interaction and security, with a smoother experience and enhanced AI capabilities [4]. - Major applications like WeChat have launched native versions for Harmony, and the upcoming Harmony PC version is expected to drive further growth in the ecosystem [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Softcom Power, Tuo Wei Information, China Software International, and Kingsoft Office, with benefiting stocks being Runhe Software and Chengmai Technology [4]. Key Developments - The public beta of "Pure Blood Harmony" started on October 8, with initial models including Huawei Mate 60 series and MatePad Pro 13.2 series [4]. - As of October 12, the number of Harmony ecosystem devices exceeded 900 million, with expectations for a commercial version release in Q4 [4]. User Experience Enhancements - The public beta version offers a more fluid interaction experience, with improved animation transitions and faster application switching [4]. - The system now provides minimal data access permissions, enhancing user privacy [4]. Ecosystem Growth - Over 13,000 native Harmony applications have been launched, with projections of 100,000 applications by year-end [4]. - Huawei plans to invest 6 billion yuan annually to support Harmony developers [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction industry as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - Fiscal policies are expected to enhance the asset quality and profitability of construction companies, with a focus on increasing cash flow and improving accounts receivable quality [3][16] - The report highlights that the central government has allocated significant debt limits to support local governments in managing existing debt risks and improving cash flow for construction companies [3][4] - The fourth quarter is projected to be the peak season for construction activities, leading to improved performance expectations for state-owned construction enterprises [4][16] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The central government has arranged over 2.2 trillion yuan in local government debt limits for 2023 and an additional 1.2 trillion yuan for 2024 to support local governments in resolving debt risks and clearing overdue payments [3] - Special bonds totaling 2.3 trillion yuan are available for use in the next three months, which will enhance cash flow for construction companies [3][4] Performance Expectations - The report anticipates that the implementation of fiscal policies will lead to improved cash flow and asset quality for construction companies, with a focus on state-owned enterprises [4][16] - The report suggests that companies with a price-to-book (PB) ratio below 1 and a dividend yield above 2.25% are preferred investment targets [4][16] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include China State Construction (PB 0.58, dividend yield 4.5%), China Railway Construction (PB 0.50, dividend yield 3.75%), and China Communications Construction (PB 0.62, dividend yield 2.79%) [4][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with low PB ratios and high dividend yields, particularly those with strong performance in the third quarter of 2023 [4][16]