Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for China Eastern Airlines [2][4]. Core Views - The airline industry is recovering in 2024, with China Eastern Airlines leading in the recovery of international routes and achieving a basic recovery in fleet turnover and passenger load factor during the summer travel season. The report anticipates an upward trend in profitability as industry supply and demand recover, alongside market-driven ticket pricing and a gradual reduction in capacity growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.8 billion RMB, continuing to reduce losses year-on-year. The fleet size has increased by nearly 13% compared to 2019, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growing by 10%. The daily aircraft utilization and passenger load factor are close to 2019 levels. Passenger revenue has increased by 3% compared to 2019, while seat revenue has grown by 1% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The summer travel demand remains strong, with passenger traffic increasing by nearly 18% compared to 2019, and over 12% year-on-year, setting a new historical high. The company is actively restoring international routes, particularly to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and Australia, with international ASK showing positive growth compared to 2019 [4][6]. Future Outlook - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 200 million RMB and 4.67 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new net profit forecast of 8.8 billion RMB for 2026. The company is expected to continue its capacity reduction planning despite having a substantial order book for new aircraft, which aligns with the long-term constraints of China's airspace [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the commercial banking sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Authority introduced four financial support policies for the real estate sector on September 29, which are expected to stabilize expectations and boost confidence [4]. - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is anticipated to positively impact bank interest margins, with a projected average reduction in existing mortgage rates from approximately 4.06% to about 3.55% [5]. - The report emphasizes that the current economic stimulus policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market are robust and rapidly implemented, likely to significantly improve expectations and bolster confidence [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The recent policies include a unified reduction of the personal housing loan down payment ratio to 15% and an extension of the operating property loan policy until the end of 2026 [5]. - The adjustment plan for existing mortgage rates consists of enhancing the long-term pricing mechanism and a one-time rate reduction for certain existing loans [5]. Interest Margin Expectations - The report predicts that the adjustment of existing mortgage rates will mitigate concerns regarding interest margin reductions, estimating a 5 basis point impact on net interest margins for listed banks in 2025 [5]. - The anticipated adjustment of existing mortgage rates is expected to be executed by October 31, with banks required to publish specific operational details by October 12 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend specific banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank, which are expected to benefit more from the recovery in the real estate chain and retail credit [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the building materials industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy improvements are driving confidence and rapid allocation in the sector, with significant price increases in cement along the Yangtze River, prioritizing leading building material companies for recommendation [4][6] - The cement market has seen a substantial week-on-week price increase of 1.2%, with notable price hikes in regions such as Fujian, Jiangxi, Shandong, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Shaanxi, ranging from 15 to 30 CNY per ton [4][24] - The report highlights the resilience of glass processing demand and the competitive advantages of leading companies, suggesting a continuous value return for these firms [6][15] Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Industry Investment Strategy - The report indicates a significant recovery in downstream market demand as high temperatures and rainfall recede, with a national cement enterprise shipment rate of 51.7%, an increase of approximately 3 percentage points from the previous week [4][24] - Leading companies are expected to benefit from improved market conditions and demand recovery, with a focus on companies like Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, and Weixing New Materials [4][6] 2. Cement Industry - The report notes that the cement price in the Yangtze River region has increased by 100 CNY per ton, with leading companies showing a strong willingness to reduce production and raise prices [6][24] - The report also mentions that the overall profitability expectations for the cement industry are stabilizing, with seasonal demand expected to support price increases [6][24] 3. Glass Industry - The average price of domestic float glass is reported at 1177.16 CNY per ton, a decrease of 62.04 CNY, indicating a downward trend in prices despite some recovery in demand [15][16] - The report recommends companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group for their cost advantages and leading positions in downstream processing [15][16] 4. Glass Fiber Industry - The report states that glass fiber prices are stable, with limited upward momentum for electronic yarns, and highlights the need for a reassessment of the glass fiber market's profitability due to structural demand changes [16][17] - Leading companies such as China Jushi and China National Materials are recommended based on their competitive advantages and market positioning [16][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [3]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is experiencing growth, highlighted by the successful launch of an intercontinental missile by the Rocket Force and the upcoming air show featuring new air force equipment [1][8]. - The intensification of great power competition is seen as a long-term trend, with an expectation of increased defense spending to ensure national security [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Multiple new air force equipment will be showcased at the upcoming air show, and Azerbaijan has equipped the "JF-17 Block3" fighter jet [1][8]. - The 15th China Airshow will take place from November 12 to 17 in Zhuhai, Guangdong, featuring a significant increase in the number of air-to-ground equipment displays and flight demonstrations [25][26]. 2. Market Review - The military industry index rose by 14.12%, outperforming the market by 1.31 percentage points, ranking 18th out of 29 sectors [12][13]. - The defense information technology sector performed well, with notable stocks such as Zhonghai Da and Aerospace Electromechanical showing significant gains [18][19]. 3. Major News in the Military Industry - The Rocket Force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, demonstrating the effectiveness of military training and equipment [23]. - The Chinese Air Force's Y-20 aircraft was showcased at the African Aerospace and Defense Exhibition, enhancing international visibility [26]. - The Shandong aircraft carrier's operational training has improved its capabilities for long-range maritime operations [26]. - China successfully launched eight satellites, including the Tianyi 41 satellite, showcasing advancements in space technology [28].

Currency and Economic Outlook - The USD trend is expected to clarify by the end of 2024, primarily dependent on US economic performance[1] - The Japanese yen is projected to remain weak through 2025 despite potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in December or early next year[1] - The euro is likely to experience a slight increase amidst fluctuations in 2024[1] - The British pound is expected to maintain its strength in 2025[1] - The Australian dollar is anticipated to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2025[1] Market Performance and Investment Strategy - The stock market is experiencing a significant rebound due to declining risk-free interest rates and increased risk appetite, with further room for growth expected[1] - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global indices following the initiation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, with a notable increase in IPO fundraising and net inflows from the south[1] - The valuation center of the Hong Kong stock market is expected to rise, supported by improved liquidity and positive feedback loops from increased capital inflows[1] Sector Analysis - The company "Shangda Co., Ltd." (301522.SZ) reported a revenue of 2.035 billion CNY and a net profit of 151 million CNY in 2023, with projected average P/E ratios of 30.43, 22.25, and 16.71 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively[1] - The coal sector is expected to see a second wave of opportunities this year, driven by better-than-expected fundamentals[3] - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing performance divergence, with chemical and biological drugs showing strong results, while traditional Chinese medicine faces short-term pressure[5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on three main directions: Xinchuang, new productivity, and AI [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the industry has reached a triple bottom in terms of fundamentals, valuation, and fund holdings, indicating a favorable cost-performance ratio for investment [1] - It emphasizes that the revenue outlook remains weak, but larger enterprises show better resilience compared to smaller ones, with industry profit margins near the breakeven point, suggesting limited room for further decline [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in industry sentiment, leading to greater profit elasticity in the future [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Xinchuang - The Xinchuang sector is driven by supportive policies and demand, with continuous policy support providing a strong guarantee for regular procurement [1] - Recent overseas incidents have highlighted the importance of self-controllable IT supply chains, potentially accelerating customer transitions to Xinchuang solutions [1] - Huawei's computing ecosystem is evolving, positioning it as a core market participant, which is expected to lead to rapid development in the Xinchuang industry [1] New Productivity and AI - New productivity technologies, including vehicle-road-cloud integration and low-altitude economy, are receiving significant policy support [1] - Although short-term market attention on low-altitude economy has decreased, enthusiasm remains high at the industry level, with accelerated domestic and international technological advancements [1] - Breakthroughs in core technologies such as AI, big data, and cloud computing are driving the industry into a long-term growth trajectory, with ample development space as technologies mature [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is expected to benefit from economic stabilization, with a focus on coking coal as the most elastic segment. Key recommendations include leading companies such as Huabei Mining, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [2][3]. - Recent policy measures have exceeded market expectations, including stock buybacks and special loans, which are likely to attract long-term capital into dividend-paying assets [2]. - The report anticipates that steel demand recovery will drive coking coal prices upward, making it the most price-elastic segment within the coal sector [2]. Summary by Sections Coking Coal Data Tracking - Coking coal prices have seen an increase, with the main coking coal price at Jing-Tang Port rising to 1780 CNY/ton, up 0.6% from the previous week [34][43]. - The report notes that the worst times for raw material prices are over, as steel profitability has improved significantly [2][34]. Thermal Coal Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with the price at Qinhuangdao Port at 728 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% [28]. - The report indicates that thermal coal consumption is expected to decline as the peak season approaches, with prices likely to stabilize above 800 CNY/ton [2][5]. Market Overview - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.97% increase compared to a 0.60% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [73]. - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal & Chemical have been highlighted for their strong dividend yields, making them attractive investments [2][3]. Inventory and Price Trends - As of September 28, 2024, Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 8.7% to 5.63 million tons, while southern ports saw a decrease in inventory [1][14]. - The report notes that the price gap between domestic and Australian coal has narrowed, with domestic coal prices remaining competitive [14][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price adjusted to 19.79 CNY from a previous forecast of 31.20 CNY [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from dual drivers of domestic demand and foreign trade, leading to sustained growth despite short-term performance pressure due to product delivery issues. The company aims to accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces and expand into air traffic control radar and low-altitude new fields, which are anticipated to support long-term growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company faced short-term pressure on performance due to product delivery delays, resulting in a year-on-year revenue decline of 81.78%, with total revenue recorded at 65.83 million CNY and a net profit loss of 39.36 million CNY compared to a profit of 29.52 million CNY in the same period of 2023 [5]. Market Opportunities - The defense early warning radar market is being deeply explored, with the company positioned as a core supplier in this sector. The modernization of the military and the increasing competitiveness of China's defense early warning radar in international markets are expected to create favorable export opportunities [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has won a bid for a military air traffic control radar project, marking its entry into the air traffic control radar sector. Additionally, a new low-altitude division has been established to engage in local government low-altitude economic development planning and technology research [5]. Infrastructure Development - The new company park located in the Jingzhou National Economic Development Zone is nearing completion and is expected to enhance the company's research and production capabilities significantly, improving digital and intelligent manufacturing levels [5]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decrease in EPS for 2024 and 2025 to 0.36 CNY and 0.49 CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.71 CNY and 0.91 CNY. An EPS of 0.61 CNY is forecasted for 2026 [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [3][6]. - Recent policy adjustments in the real estate sector are anticipated to stabilize property sales and new construction, which will positively impact steel demand [7][9]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in total inventory levels, reaching the lowest point since 2015, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][9]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products reached 9.1337 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 8.16% [14]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 12.9191 million tons, down by 0.9032 million tons week-on-week, marking a significant reduction [9][14]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 steel mills remained stable at 78.23%, while the capacity utilization rate increased to 84.45% [16]. Price Movements - The price of rebar increased by 100 CNY/ton to 3410 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.02% rise, while hot-rolled coil prices rose by 200 CNY/ton to 3440 CNY/ton, a 6.17% increase [7][9]. - The report notes that the production profit for rebar decreased to 317.8 CNY/ton, while hot-rolled coil profit increased to 147.8 CNY/ton [20]. Raw Material Insights - Iron ore prices rose, with spot prices increasing by 34 CNY/ton to 731 CNY/ton, a 4.88% increase, and futures prices up by 70 CNY/ton to 750 CNY/ton, a 10.29% rise [25]. - The inventory of imported iron ore at ports decreased to 150.52 million tons, down by 1.69% week-on-week [28]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the adjustments in real estate policies will lead to a rebound in steel demand, as the negative impact from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [7][9]. - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions within the industry are expected to enhance profitability and market concentration, benefiting leading steel companies [3][6].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.29 [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 庄子童(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38032683 liuyuenan@gtjas.com zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030003 S0880524070002 证 券 研 究 报 告 政策落地超预期，顺周期加速修复 [Table_Industry] 旅游业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——商社行业周报（2024.09.23-09.29） [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 政治局会议政策定调更加积极，组合拳频出，顺周期预期先行。 旅游业《中秋假期价升显著，台风扰动下延续景 气》2024.09.19 旅游业《寻局部景气，挖错杀龙头》2024.09.04 旅游业《明确有序放宽服务业准入限制，教育行 业受催化》2024.09.02 旅游业 ...