股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 于清泰(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38022689 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 liuyuenan@gtjas.com yuqingtai@gtjas.com 酒店 增持 连锁餐饮 增持 旅游景点和旅行社 增持 其他旅游 增持 登记编号 S0880516030003 S0880519100001 证 券 研 究 报 告 法定假日延长，本地消费时间增加 [Table_Industry] 旅游业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 《全国年节及纪念日放假办法》修改点评 本报告导读： 假期政策落地，符合理性预期。法定假期增加 2 天，且可通过年假等方式形成更多 超长假期，将利好本地消费、出境游。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 节假日政策落地，符合预期。修改后节假日安排符合预期，法定假 日明显延长，本地消费时间增加，且利用年假形成超长假期可能性 增加，利好本地消费：超市、百货以及餐饮，以及利好出境游旅行 社，国内长线游也有望受益。推荐标的：永辉超市、重庆百货、百 胜中国 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 双十一美妆销售超预期，关注产品势能 [Table_Industry] 化妆品 [Table_Invest] 增持 ——2024 年美妆双十一点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.13 评级： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|------------------|----------|----------------------|-------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | 上次评级 : | 增持 | | [table_Authors] | 訾猛 ( | 分析师 ) | 闫清徽 ( 分析师 ) | 杨柳 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38676442 | | 021-38031651 | 021-38038323 | | | | | | | | | | | [Table_Report] ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级，下调盈利预测并上调目标价：因成品油需求低 于预期，且炼化板块仍处于底部复苏期，我们下调公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 0.13/0.33/0.96 元（原为 0.24/0.69/1.16 元）。参考可比公司采 用 PB 估值法估值，可比公司 2024 平均 PB 为 2.77，对应目标价为 12.23 元（原为 11.20 元），维持"增持"评级。 三季度业绩承压，油价波动影响业绩：2024 年前三季度公司实现净 利润 8.77 亿元，同比+714.73%，扣非后净利润 6.88 亿元，同比 +630.51%。其中 Q3 实现净利润 0.19 亿元，同比-98.48%，环比93.87%，扣非后净利润 0.16 亿元，同比-98.74%，环比-92.00%。三 季度业绩低于预期的原因是化工品需求疲软，且成品油受新能源替 代等影响，需求低于市场预期。此外三季度油价波动较大，带来部 分产品减值影响业绩。 三季度部分化工品价格疲软，库存减值或影响业绩：三季度原油均 价 78.60 美元/桶，环比 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 收入超预期，自免管线顺利推进 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——诺诚健华 2024Q3 点评 | --- | |------------| | | | | | | | 2024.11.12 | | | | | | (9969) | | 医药 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------------------------|--------|--------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 丁丹 ( 分析师 ) | 甘坛焕 ( 分析师 ) | 付子阳 | ( 研究助理 | ) | | | | | 0755-23976735 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Dizal Pharmaceutical-U (688192 SH) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 61 82 RMB [1][2][3] Core Views - Dizal Pharmaceutical focuses on source innovation and has a globally competitive pipeline with core products Suvotinib and Golvatinib entering the harvest phase [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 467 973 and 1 582 billion RMB in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively driven by the commercialization of Suvotinib and Golvatinib [2] - Suvotinib has shown global best-in-class potential in treating EGFR ex20ins NSCLC and has received breakthrough therapy designations in both China and the US [2] - Golvatinib a next-generation JAK1 inhibitor has demonstrated clinical breakthroughs in treating r/r PTCL and is expected to provide new treatment options [2] - The early-stage pipeline is robust with several first-in-class molecules such as DZD8586 showing promising early data [2] Product Pipeline Suvotinib - Suvotinib is a targeted therapy for EGFR ex20ins NSCLC a difficult-to-treat mutation with limited treatment options [2] - It has shown superior efficacy with ORRs of 60 8% and 53 3% in domestic and international trials respectively outperforming existing therapies [2] - The drug has been approved in China and is under review in the US with potential for significant market penetration [2] - Suvotinib is also being developed for first-line treatment with early data showing mPFS of 10 2 and 12 4 months for different dose groups [2] Golvatinib - Golvatinib is a highly selective JAK1 inhibitor with a long half-life of 40-50 hours allowing for once-daily dosing [2] - It has shown breakthrough efficacy in r/r PTCL with an ORR of 44 3% and a CR rate of 23 9% significantly higher than existing treatments [2] - The drug has been approved in China and is expected to enter the commercialization phase in overseas markets [2] Early-Stage Pipeline - DZD8586 a first-in-class LYN/BTK inhibitor has shown promising early data and potential to overcome BTK inhibitor resistance [2] - Other early-stage candidates such as DZD6008 DZD2269 and DZD1516 are progressing through clinical trials with potential to validate their first-in-class or best-in-class potential [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth from 467 million RMB in 2024 to 1 582 billion RMB in 2026 driven by the commercialization of Suvotinib and Golvatinib [2] - Despite being in a strategic loss-making phase the company's net loss is expected to narrow as revenues grow [2] Valuation - The target price of 61 82 RMB is derived using both absolute and relative valuation methods with a focus on the discounted cash flow (DCF) model [2][19] - The relative valuation method using PS multiples suggests a target price of 74 93 RMB but the more conservative DCF-based target is chosen [19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Dingdong (Cayman) Limited (DDL N) [4] Core Views - Dingdong's Q3 2024 performance met expectations with accelerated growth in GMV and revenue driven by strong seasonal demand [2] - The company demonstrates strong scale effects in the fresh food category [2] - Regional expansion is progressing smoothly with accelerated growth in orders and average order value [5] - Scale effects are driving continuous quarter-over-quarter improvement in profit margins [5] - The company has achieved regional profitability in its fresh food category with strong category scale effects [5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 6 538 billion +27 21% YoY [5] - Adjusted net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 164 million compared to RMB 13 32 million in Q3 2023 [5] - Q3 2024 GMV reached RMB 7 267 billion +28 27% YoY [5] - Fulfillment expense ratio reached a historical low of 21 38% [5] - Profit margin stood at 2 47% indicating successful operations in Shanghai and regional expansion in Jiangsu-Zhejiang [5] Growth Drivers - Accelerated warehouse openings with 80 new warehouses in Q3 2024 completing the annual target [5] - Full-year 2024 warehouse opening target is 110 [5] - Profit improvement mainly from supply chain scale effects and increased order density [5] - The company expects GMV growth to maintain 17-18% for the full year with adjusted net profit margin of 1 7-1 8% [5] Industry Landscape - Recent changes in the industry include increased investment by JD com in front warehouses and Hema's restart of front warehouses [5] - Xiaoxiang Supermarket is advancing rapidly in North and South China with relatively steady expansion in East China [5] - The report suggests that these competitors have different models and regional focuses with no aggressive price wars expected in the short term [5] Historical Financials - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 22 979 52 million +15 06% YoY [6] - 2024E gross profit is projected at RMB 6 893 86 million [6] - 2024E adjusted net profit attributable to parent company is projected at RMB 409 60 million with a margin of 1 78% [6]

Industry Overview - The pet economy is booming, with domestic pet brands catching up to foreign brands by addressing pet owners' nutritional concerns [1][2] - The pet industry is in a rapid development stage, driven by the increasing number of young pet owners and rising per-pet spending [4] - The pet industry is expected to grow 4 times in the next 10 years, with pet food accounting for 40%-50% of the market [8] - The global pet market reached $136 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $225 billion by 2027 [15] Domestic Pet Brands - Domestic pet brands are rising by innovating in product ingredients and processes to address pet owners' nutritional anxiety [4][33] - Key domestic brands include Guaibao Pet, Zhongchong, Petty, and Ruipu Biology, all rated as "Overweight" [3][4] - Domestic brands are gaining market share by focusing on online channels and catering to young pet owners' preferences [43][44] - Guaibao Pet's domestic revenue grew from 540 million yuan in 2018 to 2.863 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 28.8% [64] Market Trends - Young people are the main pet-owning group, with 90s and 80s generations accounting for a large proportion [19] - The number of pets in China is expected to continue growing, with pet ownership penetration still low compared to mature markets like the US (70%) [20] - Pet consumption is becoming more "humanized," with pet food, supplies, medical care, and grooming services all growing [22] - The average annual spending per pet in China is lower than in Japan and the US, indicating significant growth potential [26] Product Innovation - Domestic brands are innovating in product processes (freeze-dried, baked, air-dried) and ingredients (duck, pigeon, shrimp) to meet pet owners' demands [33][36] - High-protein pet food is gaining popularity, with brands like Guaibao Pet and Blue Buffalo emphasizing fresh meat and natural ingredients [37] - Domestic brands are outperforming foreign brands in online sales, with 7 out of the top 10 brands in the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival being domestic [38] Future Outlook - The future of domestic pet brands lies in addressing pets' health needs, such as aging and specific health conditions [4][47] - Overseas brands like Royal Canin and Nestlé Purina focus on pet health through prescription diets and high R&D investment [48][51] - Domestic companies are increasing R&D investment, with Guaibao Pet spending over 73 million yuan on R&D in 2023 [52] - Guaibao Pet's high-end brand Fregate is innovating with fresh meat processing technology, achieving up to 80% fresh meat content in pet food [54]

观研究 / 2024.11.12 居民部门则开始尝试性地信用扩张。企业票据融资同比回落，同时 短货增长也符合李节性,表明企业提前还货延续了9月的退湖趋势, 但另一方面长货同比明显下降,反映企业的信用扩张意愿仍较赢弱。 相比之下,居民部门开始尝试性加杠杆,体现在短期贷款的企稳。 10 月进入汽车销售旺季,同时叠加网络电商开启购物节,在消费品 以旧换新政策的加持下,居民短期货款同比增长较多。此外居民购 房意愿也有所回暖,30大中城市商品房成交面积在 10月的同比降 幅显著收窄,后续观察居民中长贫的增长弹性。 10月 M2 增速回升至 7.5%(前值 6.8%), M1 增速回升至-6.1%(前 值-7.4%),M1-M2 剪刀差开始收窄。M1-M2 剪刀差的收窄正是一 揽子增量政策落地见效的体现:一方面,财政加速发力,在政府债 新增净融资 1.05 万亿元的情况下,财政存款仅新增 5952 亿元,同 比少增 7748 亿元。财政资金通过项目资金投放和化债款项回流等形 式支撑居民和企业存款。另一方面,资本市场展现赚钱效应,非银 存款延续高增态势。后续在增量政策的带动下,M1-M2 剪刀差将持 续收窄,但关键在于当财 ...

上周围内各试点硬市场周交易总量较前一周大幅下降。上周国内试点碳市场碳配额 周成交均价普遍下降,其中深圳市 SZA 降幅最大,达到 13.32%;与上月同期相比, 湖北省和福建省碳市场碳配额周成交均价呈下降趋势,其中福建省 FJEA 幅最大,达 到 37.46%。上周国内试点碳市场碳配额交易主要集中在湖北省、福建省、北京市和 广东省碳市场,四地周交易量占全部试点碳市场周交易总量的 89.73%。上周湖北省、 金额的 94.57%。上周国内各试点碳市场周交易总量为 24.20 万吨,较前一周大幅下 降，降幅达到 63.34%。 2024.11.12 43 期 中业研究中心 超子使(分析师) 021-38032292 zhaozijian@gtjas.com S0880520060003 王佳(分析师) 010-83939781 wangjia025750@gtjas.com S0880524010001 蔡展(研究助理) 021-38031023 caichen028680@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880123070146 上周全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量及累计成交金额较前一周均有所上涨。上周 全国碳 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [table_NewStock] 新股精要—全球独立 SSD 主控芯片领先 生产商联芸科技 本周新股发行信息 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.12 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------|--------------------------| | | | | —— IPO 专题 | | | [table_Authors] 王政之 ( 分析师 ) | 施怡昀 ( 分析师 ) | 王思琪 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38674944 | 021-38032690 | 021-38038671 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtjas.com | shiyiyun@gtjas.com | wangsiqi026737@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | S088 ...