宏观研究 / 2025.03.17 平稳开局后,关注政策落地与外部风险 -2025年1-2月经济数据点评 本报告导读: 2025年1-2月经济数据整体平稳开局,1-2月月度 GDP 拟合结果为5.3%,消费和投 资均有改善的积极信号。下一阶段将进入两会部署的各项扩内需政策的验证期,二 李度经济内外都面临更大的不确定性,可能小幅走弱但预计不会明显失速。后续终 端服务价格将是判断居民部门预期是否改善的重要标准。 投资要点: 资增速回升的主导因素是土地购置费的回落和竣工回暖,延续了 12月以来土地购置对地产投资的扰动,地产市场的回暖仍需谨慎 判断;广义基建增速提升,延续2024年四季度以来中央主导的水 利投资增速高,而地方主导的交运、公共设施低的特征,表明甚建 投资增量仍主要由中央财政支出支撑;设备购置投资增速延续 12 月的回升趋势,增量两新资金的落地使用将持续支撑投资。 信贷弱并非降息的充分条件 2025.03.16 通胀降温或为暂时,仍需警惕"滞胀交易" 2025.03.13 春节错位并非通胀回落的主因 2025.03.09 关税并非出口回落主因 2025.03.08 "五个统筹"下的七大亮点 2025.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 30.80 CNY per share, up from the previous forecast of 28.61 CNY [2][15]. Core Views - The report highlights that active trading in the fourth quarter has driven the company's performance growth, with a continued optimistic outlook for the company's earnings due to high market trading volumes and the integration of AI capabilities to enhance competitiveness [3][15]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 11,081 million CNY, which is expected to increase to 11,604 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.7%. By 2025, revenue is projected to reach 13,743 million CNY, marking an 18.4% increase [6][16]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 8,193 million CNY, anticipated to rise to 9,610 million CNY in 2024, representing a 17.3% growth. By 2025, net profit is expected to reach 12,213 million CNY, a 27.1% increase [6][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.52 CNY in 2023 to 0.61 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.77 CNY in 2025 [6][16]. Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is reported at 385,641 million CNY, with a current share price of 24.43 CNY [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 9.96 CNY to 30.00 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Investment Drivers - The report identifies active trading in the capital markets and a sustained demand for wealth management among residents as key catalysts for growth [5][15]. - The company’s commission income is expected to increase by 23.07% to 61.13 million CNY in 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the active trading environment will continue to support the company's performance, with daily average stock trading volumes reaching 1.56 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 80% [15]. - The integration of the "Miaoxiang" financial AI model is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and open up new growth opportunities [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.06, while the current price is 16.90 [1][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in marine communication, breaking the oligopoly in the industry. The government has included "deep-sea technology" in its development plans, indicating a growing focus on marine economy and technology [2][19]. - The company has a comprehensive product capability across the entire industry chain, which may be undervalued by the market. The marine communication and observation capabilities are expected to benefit from future policy developments [2][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Marine Economy and Technology - The government report emphasizes the development of the marine economy and the inclusion of "deep-sea technology" in its new industrial policies, highlighting the increasing attention on marine technology [19]. - The company has rapidly enhanced its marine communication deployment, which is crucial for global connectivity, with over 95% of data transmission occurring via marine communication systems [20][21]. 2. Marine Communication Business - The company has established itself as a top-tier integrator in the marine communication sector, having begun self-research on submarine cables in 2009 and integrating downstream operations [48]. - The company has successfully completed the PEACE submarine cable project, which connects Asia, Africa, and Europe, and has begun commercial operations, providing high-quality communication networks [53]. 3. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 47.62 billion in 2023 to 59.22 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 2.15 billion to 3.73 billion during the same period [12]. - The company has a strong order backlog in marine communication, exceeding 6 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [34]. 4. Market Position - The company’s subsidiary, Huahai Communication, is ranked among the top four global players in providing submarine cable network solutions, effectively breaking the overseas oligopoly [13][28]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic marine communication sector, having installed seven submarine systems over the past four years, second only to NEC [32]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates substantial growth in the marine observation sector, driven by government policies and the company’s capabilities in providing comprehensive marine communication solutions [44][45]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing investment in marine observation networks, with a projected total investment of approximately 533 billion for comprehensive coverage along China's coastline [44].

Group 1 - The report highlights the acceleration of fertility subsidies and the implementation of supportive policies aimed at enhancing population growth, which is expected to boost demand in maternal and infant products, medical services, and childcare sectors [21][24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology, particularly the development of AI agents that enhance application efficiency and increase demand for computing power, with significant implications for various industries including finance, industrial, and education [17][28][29] - The establishment of a national venture capital fund is anticipated to drive investment in strategic emerging industries, focusing on hard technology and innovation, which could lead to substantial growth in sectors like artificial intelligence and quantum technology [18][37] Group 2 - The report discusses the potential for mergers and acquisitions to reshape industry structures, particularly in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals, driven by supportive government policies [19][20][41] - It notes that the integration of state-owned assets in energy and public services is expected to enhance resource security and improve competitiveness in key industries [20][41] - The report outlines the expected growth in China's intelligent computing capacity, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028, which will significantly impact the AI industry and related sectors [37][39]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the financing demand in the real economy remains to be boosted, particularly in traditional industries, which require further monetary policy support. The current cautious stance of the central bank may lead to continued pressure on the bond market in March, but a potential "targeted reserve requirement and interest rate cut" is expected to materialize in the second quarter, guiding a new downward trend in the bond market [6][14][19] - In February 2025, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 22,333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7,374 billion yuan. The government bonds contributed significantly to this increase, with a year-on-year rise of 10,956 billion yuan, marking the highest level in recent years. However, the growth of special bonds was limited, with only an additional 1,000 billion yuan in the first two months [8][11][14] - The report indicates that the short-term outlook for the bond market is less favorable, with interest rates likely to rise above 1.90% by the end of March due to banks' needs to realize OCI floating profits. However, in the long term, interest rates are expected to decline again as monetary policy loosening takes effect [6][14][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank believes the current monetary policy is sufficiently utilized, and there may not be a strong necessity for further easing in the short term. The central bank's cautious approach, combined with obstacles in credit issuance, may lead to different market reactions in the short and long term [11][13][14] - The financing willingness of enterprises and residents remains low, particularly in traditional sectors, which still require monetary policy support. The report suggests that the second quarter may see the implementation of monetary policy measures to stimulate financing demand in the real economy and alleviate banking operational pressures [14][19][27] - The report recommends gradually positioning investments around the end of March to capitalize on the anticipated easing of monetary policy in the second quarter, which could drive a new round of strength in the bond market [14][19][27]

| [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟(分析师) | 曲世强(研究助理) | 樊夏俐(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38031654 | 021-38031025 | 021-38676666 | | caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.com qushiqiang028674@gtjas.com fanxiali@gtjas.com | | | | 登记编号 S0880521050002 | S0880123070132 | S0880523090006 | 各地积极发布育儿补贴细则，政策超出预期 [Table_Industry] 家用电器业 ——家电行业 2025W11 周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 投资要点： 家用电器业《平台费率正优化，小家电利润率有 望改善》2025.03.12 家用电器业《3000 亿特别国债支持以旧换新，楼 市回稳奠基》2025.03.09 家用电器业《楼市健康发展奠基，国补拉动内销 稳增》2025.03.06 家用电器业《厨电告别成长股模式，转型价值股 新征程》2025.03.04 家用电器 ...

[Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 22.41-28.81 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | 91,883 | | 总股本/流通A股（百万股） | 3,465/3,464 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万股） | 0/0 | [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) | 股东权益（百万元） | 19,934 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 5.75 | | 市净率（现价） | 4.6 | | 净负债率 | 9.14% | | | | ——双汇发展更新报告 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 陈力宇(分析师) | 李美仪(分析师) | [Table_Target] | 上次评级: | 增持 | | 021-38676442 | 021-38677618 | 021-38038667 | 目标价格： | | 31.70 | | zimeng@gtjas.co ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the hydrogen industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the hydrogen sector, including government policies and corporate activities aimed at advancing hydrogen technology and infrastructure [11][14][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Policy - The National Energy Administration has outlined key focus areas for energy industry standards by 2025, including hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and fuel cells [11]. - Beijing Daxing District is positioning itself as a core hub for hydrogen industry collaboration within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, aiming to attract global hydrogen innovation enterprises [11]. - The European Union has approved national aid plans for Austria and Lithuania to promote local green hydrogen production, with a total funding of €400 million [11]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Shanghai Hydrogen Technology has established operations in Hefei, focusing on third-generation anion exchange membrane water electrolysis technology [14]. - Fudan University has made advancements in proton exchange membrane electrolysis for green hydrogen production, publishing significant research findings [14]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has launched an expanded hydrogen fuel cell supply center in Guangzhou, capable of producing 15 tons of hydrogen daily [14]. - A new "Liquid Hydrogen Technology Alliance" has been formed in China, involving over 20 organizations to promote liquid hydrogen technology [14]. 3. Investment and Financing Events - No domestic investment or financing events were reported [20]. - No foreign investment or financing events were reported [20]. 4. Industry Conference Preview - The Fourth China International Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Industry Exhibition is scheduled for March 26-28, 2025, focusing on promoting new energy development [21].

核能周见 | 能量奇点 21.7 特斯拉经天 产业研究中心 产业政策及动态 | ર્ | 陈磊(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38038037 | | ಡಿ | chenlei022459@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060001 | | ર્ | 王浩(分析师) | | 8 | 0755-23976068 | | ம் | wanghao013539@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513090004 | 安装系统通过专家组验收,系统研制水平及运行能力达到国际先进水平。 (中国核电网) | ર | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 8 | 0755-23976830 | | E | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | 往期回顾 【数字经济周报】全球首款通用型 AI Agent 产品 Manus 发布 2025.03.10 【智能车产业跟踪】东风本田 S7上市,一汽奔腾 悦意 03 开启预售 2025.03.10 混合动力助力支线物流无人机商业化加速 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.20, up from the previous forecast of 12.20 [1][13]. Core Views - The company is actively promoting brand upgrades and channel optimization, awaiting business stabilization and recovery [2]. - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue expected to be 39.41 billion and net profit at 2.2 billion, reflecting a decrease of 13.8% and 33.9% respectively compared to the previous year [13]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 4,570 million - 2024A: 3,941 million - 2025E: 4,336 million - 2026E: 4,723 million - 2027E: 5,102 million - Revenue growth rates: -13.8% in 2024, followed by 10.0% in 2025 [4][14]. - **Net Profit (Attributable to Parent)**: - 2023A: 333 million - 2024A: 220 million - 2025E: 243 million - 2026E: 265 million - 2027E: 286 million - Net profit growth rates: -33.9% in 2024, followed by 10.5% in 2025 [4][14]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.82 - 2024A: 0.54 - 2025E: 0.60 - 2026E: 0.65 - 2027E: 0.71 [4][14]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 10.0% - 2024A: 6.5% - 2025E: 7.0% - 2026E: 7.5% - 2027E: 7.9% [4][14]. Market Data - **Current Price**: 11.03 - **52-week Price Range**: 8.61 - 11.53 - **Market Capitalization**: 4,476 million - **Total Shares**: 406 million, with 365 million in circulation [5][14]. Valuation Overview - The company is valued at a PE of 22 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable valuation of 13.20 [15][17].