美股财报季开启，开源模型发展加速 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——海外科技行业 2024 年第 51 期 | --- | --- | |----------|----------------------| | | 李奇(分析师) | | | 0755-23976888 | | | liqi028295@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523060001 | 本报告导读： 特斯拉和 Alphabet 发布 Q2 财报；开源大模型 Llama 3.1 405B 发布，国产大模型亮 相于巴黎奥运会；扎克伯格预测 AI 智能体将超越人类 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上，（2024.07.21-2024.07.27）恒生指数下跌 2.28%，恒生科 技指数下跌 2.62%，道琼斯工业指数上涨 0.75%，纳斯达克指数下 跌 2.08%。港股、美股科技股持续回调，受大选交易、降息交易及 财报季影响较大。 特斯拉、Alphabet 发布 24Q2 财报，OpenAI 2024 年或亏损 50 亿美 元。 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——水井坊 2024H1 业绩点评 结构性增长延续 水井坊(600779) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 47.90 | | | 上次预测: | 55.40 | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | | 36.41 | | --- | --- | |------------------|-----------------------| | 訾猛(分析师) | 李耀(分析师) | | 021-38676442 | 8621-38675854 | | zimeng@gtjas.com | liyao022899@gtjas.com | | S08805131200 ...

——电子板块推荐点评 | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------------------------| | 舒迪(分析师) | 刘校(研究助理) | | 021-38676666 | 021-38038661 | | shudi@gtjas.com | liuxiao026731@gtjas.com | | S0880521070002 | S0880122070050 | 本报告导读： 折叠屏手机市场快速发展，三折屏手机也即将面世，看好折叠屏手机产业链尤其是 华为产业链相关企业。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 华为布局三折多年，下半年或将亮相多款折叠产品。华为布局三折 多年，早在 2022 年就已经申请了多项三折屏相关专利，2024 年 2 月 21 日，华为申请了一项名为"折叠屏设备"的专利，展现了一种 三次折叠的新形态电子设备，主体结构包括三个壳体、两个铰链以 及一块柔性屏，其使用一个内折铰链加一个外折铰链实现三个壳体 的连接。据多位数码博主爆料，华为的三折手机有望于 2 个月内（8- 9 月）正式亮相；此外，华为官网公布将于 8 月 5 日正式发布 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： 日耗攀升至 5 年最高点，基本面悲观有望触底 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|-----------------------------| | | 黄涛(分析师) | 邓铖琦(分析师) | | | 021-38674879 | 010-83939825 | | | huangtao@gtjas.com | dengchengqi024452@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515090001 | S0880523050003 | 煤炭《国君煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20240728》2024.07.28 煤炭《后市煤价有望提涨，但旺季不旺已是定 局》2024.07.22 煤炭《国君煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20240720》2024.07.22 煤炭《持仓聚焦 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 4452146 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------|---------------------------| | | 韩其成(分析师) | 郭浩然(分析师) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | 本报告导读： 2024H1 新签 7386 亿元增 14%，输变电、火电、水电等传统能源新签 2043 亿元增 64%，新能源新签 2933 亿元增 5%。2024PE10.3 倍分位 7%，PB0.9 倍分位 9%。 投资要点： [政策积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和， Table_Summary] 加快建设风光输电通道。(1)维持增持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing promotion of domestic demand policies, which are expected to stimulate consumption in the building materials sector. The long-term valuation and competitive advantages of leading companies in the cement and building materials sectors are emphasized, with expectations for improved bottom-line profitability due to normalized and differentiated peak-shifting strategies in the cement industry [2][5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Building Materials Investment Strategy - The report notes the continuation of domestic demand policy initiatives, including interest rate cuts and support for home renovations, which are expected to drive consumption in the building materials sector. The focus is on long-term positioning in leading companies due to their superior valuation and market positioning [5][6]. - Key recommended companies include Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and others, which are expected to benefit from these policies [5][6]. 2. Cement Industry - National cement prices have continued to decline, with an average drop of 0.6% this week. Price increases were noted in Henan and Yunnan, while declines were observed in regions like Shanghai and Zhejiang [6][22]. - The report anticipates that short-term demand will remain weak due to adverse weather conditions affecting construction projects. However, a slight recovery in demand is expected by mid-August, which may lead to price increases as companies seek to improve profitability [6][22]. - Recommended leading cement companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others, which are expected to maintain stable profitability during the off-peak season [5][6]. 3. Glass Industry - The average price of float glass has decreased to 1492.45 RMB per ton, reflecting a downward trend in prices across regions. The report indicates that the market is facing pressure from excess supply and weak demand [13][14]. - Key recommendations in the glass sector include companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass, which are expected to benefit from their competitive advantages and strong market positions [14][15]. 4. Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber market remains stable, with prices for non-alkali roving holding steady. The report notes that demand is generally weak, but leading companies are expected to benefit from their strong market positions and high barriers to entry [15][16]. - Recommended companies in this sector include China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are anticipated to see improved performance due to structural demand upgrades [15][16].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating on the consumer sector, specifically focusing on the **Food & Beverage** sub-industry [2] Core Views - The consumer sector is characterized by its **long-term investment value**, particularly for companies with **superior business models**, **broad market prospects**, **clear growth logic**, and **improving competitive landscapes** [4] - The sector is considered a **"long slope, thick snow"** investment opportunity, offering stability, longevity, and scalability [4] - The report highlights three types of business models: **dream-like businesses** (e.g., high-end liquor, luxury goods), **good businesses** (e.g., home appliances), and **bad businesses** (e.g., low-barrier, high-competition industries) [4] - Consumer companies benefit from **weak cyclicality**, **longevity**, **deterministic growth**, and **scalability**, making them attractive for long-term investment [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report aims to build a foundational research framework for analyzing the consumer sector, helping investors understand the industry's evolution and investment opportunities [3][6] 2. Business Characteristics of the Consumer Sector 2.1 Best Business Models - **Dream-like businesses**: These are rare, with high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, and low dependency on management (e.g., high-end liquor, luxury goods) [7][11][13] - **Good businesses**: These require significant capital expenditure and R&D but can deliver solid returns after market consolidation (e.g., home appliances) [15][17] - **Bad businesses**: These are capital-intensive, highly competitive, and offer low returns, making them less attractive for investment [17] 2.2 Unique Characteristics of Consumer Businesses - **Stability**: Consumer demand remains resilient across economic cycles, especially for essential goods [17] - **Longevity**: Many consumer companies have near-perpetual lifecycles, driven by timeless human needs (e.g., health, happiness, beauty) [19][20] - **Deterministic growth**: Consumer companies achieve steady growth through time and compounding, with clear business models and competitive advantages [20][21] - **Scalability**: To C (consumer-facing) businesses have a natural advantage in scaling compared to To B (business-facing) companies, due to standardized products and broader market reach [23][24] 2.3 Consumer Sector as a Cradle for Super Long-Term Stocks - The consumer sector has historically produced **super long-term stocks** in markets like the US, Japan, and China, with companies like **Philip Morris**, **Coca-Cola**, and **Kweichow Moutai** delivering exceptional returns [25][26][27] 2.4 Challenges and Research Barriers - The consumer sector is **easy to perceive but hard to quantify**, with numerous influencing factors that make accurate attribution difficult [29][30] 3. Recommended Stocks and Earnings Forecasts - The report recommends **long-term investment in leading Chinese consumer companies**, particularly those with strong business models and improving competitive landscapes [32] - Specific stock recommendations include **Wuliangye**, **Shanxi Fenjiu**, **Qingdao Beer**, **Midea Group**, and **Haier Smart Home**, among others, with detailed earnings forecasts provided [33]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 4452146 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 -41% -32% -23% -14% -5% 4% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_Trend] 升幅(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 绝对升幅 | 2% | -10% | -18% | | 相对指数 | 6% | 2% | 5% | [Table_Report] 相关报告 盈利能力强劲，高分红超预期 2024.03.18 Q4 业绩超预期，盈利韧性强劲 2024.02.07 产品快速迭代，盈利能力稳定 2023.10.24 业绩符合预期，海外市占率持续提升 2023.08.03 23Q1 业绩超预期，产品创新陆续落地 2023.05.10 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.07.29 ——2 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 4452146 证 券 研 究 报 告 股 票 研 究 ——顾家家居更新报告 高管大力增持，彰显发展信心 顾家家居(603816) 林纸产品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-----------|-------| | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | 增持 | | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | | 62.77 | | | 上次预测: | 62.77 | | [当前价格： Table_CurPrice] | | 23.19 | | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------------|----------------------------| | | 刘佳昆(分析师) | 毛宇翔(研究助理) | | | 021-38038184 | 0755-239 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——中科星图发布 GEOVIS 数智低空大脑事件快评 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------|----------------------------| | | 彭磊(分析师) | 周明頔(研究助理) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880518100003 | S0880123070156 | 本报告导读： 中科星图发布 GEOVIS 数智低空大脑，可全方位提供低空飞行保障服 务，低空经济安全第一、保障先行，低空保障赛道有望率先受益。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 7 月 8 日，中科星图股份有限公司在 2024 空天信息大会暨数字地球 生态峰会发布了 GEOVIS 洞察者商业航天测控产品、星图云开发者 平台和 GE ...