证书编号:S0880518010002 央行对LPR1Y和5Y均做调整,下调10bp,和年初类似,从时间选择和下调幅度上均比较温和,并不激进。2024年2月LPR5Y做了一次25bp的下调,尽管幅度 比本次更大,但并不激进,从实际利率角度来看,并没有出现实际利率的明显回落。本次调降幅度较上次更小,从力度来看,会较前期更弱,因此,从传递的信息 来看,也属于温和调降。 按揭贷款增量调减点、存量调LPR,考虑前期已经有了减点的调降,本次降LPR对存量影响更大,同时,有助于缓解新老按揭利率差异。由于过去数月LPR并没有 调降,为了支持购房需求,包括一线城市在内的大多数城市是通过减点的方式来调降利率,这使得新老按揭贷款利率不断拉开差距。上一轮系统性的调降存量按揭 贷款利率米匹配新老按揭贷款是在2023年9月底,当前即便一线城市,也在LPR的基础上下调40bp,因此,新老利率差异再次拉开,当前调降LPR有助于缓解利 率差异。需要注意的是,利率差异的影响并不体现为抑制需求,而是会导致提前还款的加剧。 实际利率仍然处于相对高位,预计后续还有实际按揭贷款利率调降的空间。尽管过去2年名义按揭贷款利率已经下调多次,但经过通胀调整后 ...

基金配置低位徘徊,内需预期再交易 [Table_Industry] 建材 2024.07.23 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------|---------------------|---------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 花健祎(分析师) | 巫恺洋(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976830 | 0755-23976858 | 0755-23976666 | | | baoyanxin@gtjas.com | huajianyi@gtjas.com | wukaiyang028675@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513070005 | S0880521010001 | S0880123070145 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读: 基金 2024 年中报建材板块持仓保持 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [Table_Industry] 电子元器件 2024.07.23 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 汽车自主可控需求提升,加速国产替代进程 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 半导体 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-----------------|----------------------------| | [table_Authors | 舒迪](分析师) | 陈豪杰(研究助理) | | | 021-38676666 | 021-38038663 | | | shudi@gtjas.com | chenhaojie026733@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521070002 | S0880122080153 | 本报告导读: 中美科技摩擦加剧,汽车芯片自主可控需求提升,尤其在高功能安全 MCU、碳化 硅、隔离芯片、CAN/LIN 等领域。 [Table_R ...

2024.07.23 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 SiC 车规级应用渗透率加速,国产供应链全面崛起 ——半导体新一轮景气周期推荐系列之八 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-----------------|-------------------------| | [table_Authors | 舒迪](分析师) | 刘校(研究助理) | | | 021-38676666 | 021-38038661 | | | shudi@gtjas.com | liuxiao026731@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521070002 | S0880122070050 | 本报告导读: 800V 高压平台升级, SiC 车规级应用渗透率加速提升。SiC 国产供应链崛起,衬 底外延器件全面突破。 投资要点: [Table800V _Summary] 高压平台升级, SiC 车规级应用渗透率加速提升。SiC 器件主 要应用于新能源车的电机控制器、车载充电机 OBC、DC/ ...

[Table_Industry] 投资银行业与经纪业 2024.07.23[Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 证 券 研 究 报 告 优质券商并购成立专业子公司模式更优 ——券商并购重组专题系列二中国 2004-2011 篇 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读: 2004-201 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_Industry] 医药 证 券 研 究 报 告 锋芒初显,中国 ADC 龙头逐鹿全球市场 ——科伦博泰首次覆盖报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------------------|----------------------------|------------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 丁丹(分析师) | 甘坛焕(分析师) | 姜铸轩(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976735 | 021-38675855 | 021-38674878 | | | dingdan@gtjas.com | gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com | jiangzhuxuan029022@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880514030001 | S0880523080007 | S0880123100004 | 本报告导读: 公司为国内 ADC 药物龙头,核心品种陆续步入收获期。TROP2 ADC SKB264 具备全 球同类最佳潜力,背靠 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 二季度业绩环比增长,轻烃龙头穿越周期 [Table_Industry] 石油/能源 卫星化学(002648)[Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-------| | | 上次评级: | 增持 | | [Table_Target] 目标价格: | | 22.10 | | | 上次预测: | 20.82 | | 当前价格: Table_CurPrice] | | 17.97 | ——卫星化学 2024H1 业绩点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------| | [table_Authors | 孙 ...

股 票 研 究 [Table_Industry] 畜牧业 2024.07.22 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 上次评级: 增持 强现实弱预期,周期位置与估值水位错配 ——生猪养殖板块行业报告 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | |--------------------------------| | [table_Authors 王艳君](分析师) | | 021-38674633 | | wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com | | S0880520100002 | 本报告导读: 现货价格上涨,板块预期仍弱。对板块估值修复和对周期预期的修复将推动板块行 情。当前阶段基于β角度继续推荐养殖板块。 投资要点: [Table投资建议: _Summary]当前猪周期位置和板块估值位置不匹配,养殖板块上行来 自估值修复和对未来周期预期的修复。当前阶段基于β角度推荐养殖 板块,推荐标的牧原股份、温氏股份。 养殖股复盘:周期逻辑逐步提前,2024Q2 猪价和指数背离。1) 2015~2016 年:股价跟随猪价同步变化,猪价上涨过程中股票超额收 益明显;2)2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The recent adjustment of the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) by the central bank, lowering the 5Y rate to 3.85%, is the second reduction this year, indicating a moderate approach to monetary policy [3][4] - The report highlights that the impact of the LPR reduction will be more significant on existing loans rather than new ones, as previous measures have already adjusted the rates for new home purchases [4] - The actual interest rates remain relatively high, suggesting there is still room for further reductions in actual mortgage rates, which could stimulate demand [4] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The LPR for both 1Y and 5Y has been adjusted down by 10 basis points, reflecting a cautious stance from the central bank [4] - The report emphasizes that the current high actual interest rates necessitate low leverage for real estate companies, recommending firms like China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China New Group [4] - The report also notes the potential for increased early repayments due to the widening gap between new and existing mortgage rates [4] Company Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the real estate sector have been rated as "Overweight" with specific earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E: - Vanke A: 2023A EPS 1.02, 2024E EPS 0.74, 2025E EPS 0.82 [5] - Poly Developments: 2023A EPS 1.01, 2024E EPS 0.95, 2025E EPS 1.01 [5] - China Merchants Shekou: 2023A EPS 0.70, 2024E EPS 0.79, 2025E EPS 0.85 [5] - China New Group: 2023A EPS 0.91, 2024E EPS 0.92, 2025E EPS 0.99 [5] - Binjiang Group: 2023A EPS 0.81, 2024E EPS 0.98, 2025E EPS 1.10 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is undergoing a valuation reshaping, driven by profound supply-demand structural changes and a trend towards "utility-like" characteristics. This shift reflects a market preference for high-dividend assets amid a declining risk-free rate environment. Recommended stocks include high-profitability leaders such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as integrated coal and power companies like Xinjie Energy, which benefits from Shaanxi Energy. Other recommendations include long-term contract coking coal companies such as Hengyuan Coal Power, Pingmei Shenma, Huaibei Mining, and Shanxi Coking Coal, along with state-owned enterprises leading in reform like China Coal Energy and Shanmei International, which is at a fundamental turning point [2]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - The report analyzes the changes in fund holdings based on the latest disclosures from Q2 2024, indicating that A-shares and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect have shown a continuous increase in coal allocation for five consecutive quarters. The number of coal stocks in the top ten holdings of funds decreased from 26 in Q1 2024 to 24 in Q2 2024, reflecting a higher willingness to increase holdings in industry leaders with strong profit certainty [2]. Major Holdings - The top five coal stocks held by funds are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal, and Xinjie Energy, with their respective holdings as a percentage of circulating shares being 1.46%, 3.06%, 2.30%, 2.10%, and 8.41% [2]. Changes in Holdings - The report notes that several companies experienced reductions in holdings, including Xinjie Energy, Pingmei Shenma, Shanmei International, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, with reductions in circulating shares of 0.89%, 0.85%, 0.73%, 0.59%, and 0.56% respectively. Conversely, increases were noted for Jin控煤业, Haohua Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, and Electric Power Investment Energy, with increases in total share capital proportions of 3.14%, 1.81%, 1.18%, 1.16%, and 1.02% respectively [6][8]. Stock Valuation - The report provides a summary of key coal companies' valuation metrics, indicating that major coal stocks are rated "Overweight" with various price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios. For instance, China Shenhua has a market capitalization of 833.88 billion with a PB of 2.19, while Shaanxi Coal has a market capitalization of 246.25 billion with a PB of 3.00 [12].