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金蝶国际:云转型卓有成效、AI协同发力,盈利拐点将至
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-22 03:32
股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 计算机 [ Table_Main[ 金 TIna 蝶fbole] 国 _T 际itle (] 0268) [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 当前价格(港元): 9.21 云转型卓有成效、AI 协同发力,盈利拐点将至 2024.05.21 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 外 李沐华(分析师) 陈剑鑫(研究助理) 52周内股价区间(港元) 7.28-13.88 公 010-83939797 021-38038262 当前股本(百万股) 3,594 当前市值(百万港元) 33,098 司 limuhua@gtjas.com chenjianxin027974@gtjas.co ( 证书编号 S0880519080009 mS0 880123030056 [ Table_PicQuote] 中 本报告导读: 52周内股价走势图 国 订阅优先:再显成效,云服务营收占比继续提升,续费率维持高位。AI优先:大模型 金蝶国际 恒生指数 香 加速ERP国产替代,Cosmic优化用户体验。叠加降本增效,扭亏步伐或超预期。 20% 摘要: 港 8% ...
商社行业周报:着重强调旅游强国、金价继续上涨
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-22 02:02
股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 旅游业 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 1le 9] [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 着重强调旅游强国、金价继续上涨 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] ——商社行业周报(2024.05.13-05.19) 行 餐饮 增持 业 刘越男(分析师) 庄子童(研究助理) 酒店 增持 旅游景点和旅行社 增持 周 021-38677706 021-38032683 其他旅游 报 liuyuenan@gtjas.com zhuangzitong026312@gtjas.com 连锁餐饮 增持 证书编号 S0880516030003 S0880122050050 本报告导读: 习近平对旅游工作作出重要指示强调,着力完善现代旅游业体系加快建设旅游强 国;黄金金价继续上涨。 摘要: [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] [T abl投e_资Su观mm点ar:y]继 续重点推荐性价比+出海方向。①金价持续新高,黄金 《旅游产业获高定位,加速优质供给整 珠宝短 ...
华凯易佰更新报告:拟收购通拓夯实竞争力,未来发展可期
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-22 01:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 19.35 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [1]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire Tongtuo Technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and future growth prospects [1]. - The report forecasts EPS growth for 2024-2026 at 1.13, 1.43, and 1.73 CNY, representing growth rates of 37%, 27%, and 21% respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The acquisition of Tongtuo Technology is anticipated to create synergies, strengthen competitive positioning, and improve product offerings [1]. - The company expects to achieve better inventory turnover and cost control through this acquisition [1]. - The financial outlook shows significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 6,518 million CNY in 2023 and 8,528 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 31% [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of 217 million CNY in 2023, with a substantial increase of 348% compared to the previous year [3]. - The operating profit margin is projected to stabilize at around 6.5% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 17.6% [3]. - The report indicates a low valuation with a PE ratio of 12 times, suggesting the stock is undervalued [1][3]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of 5,640 million CNY, with a trading range of 13.93 to 31.99 CNY over the past year [1][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong presence in the consumer goods sector, particularly in the e-commerce space, with significant sales through platforms like Amazon and eBay [1].
券商机构业务研究系列报告之一:欧美机构佣金率下行,研究更重专业性
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 11:31
股 票 研 究 投资银行与经纪业 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4l]e . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 1] [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 欧美机构佣金率下行,研究更重专业性 海 ——券商机构业务研究系列报告之一 [交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 外 刘欣琦(分析师) 王思玥(研究助理) 行业主要上市公司 市值(百万、美元) 行 021-38676647 021-38031024 摩根大通 588,088.86 业 liuxinqi@gtjas.com wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com 花旗集团 122,209.66 证书编号 S0880515050001 S0880123070151 高盛 150,822.63 专 市值合计 861,121.15 题 本报告导读: ( 美国指数基金占比的提升与欧洲MiFID II实施,均导致机构佣金费率的下行,机构 美 更关注研究支出的使用效率,研究业务竞争加剧,专业化能力更为重要。 摘要: 国 [T abl机e_构Su佣mm金a是ry]对 机构交易的支付,欧美机构佣金率呈下滑趋势。1)机 ) 构佣金是机构 ...
新能源汽车2024年4月全球销量点评:中国需求韧性足,欧美销量待改善
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 11:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - In April 2024, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reached 850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%. The total sales for the first four months of 2024 reached 2.94 million units, up 32.3% year-on-year. The report anticipates that annual sales in China will exceed 11.5 million units, with global sales expected to reach 18 million units [3][6][29]. - The report highlights that while domestic demand remains resilient, sales in Europe and the U.S. are experiencing a slowdown. The recent "trade-in" policy in China and a new round of rural NEV initiatives in 2024 are expected to boost demand [3][29]. - The report suggests focusing on stable segments within the power battery sector, recommending companies such as CATL and EVE Energy, while also highlighting beneficiaries like Guoxuan High-Tech [3][29]. Summary by Sections 1. April Domestic NEV Sales - In April 2024, NEV production and sales in China were 870,000 and 850,000 units respectively, marking increases of 35.9% and 33.5% year-on-year. The penetration rate for NEVs reached 36% [6][8]. - Plug-in hybrid vehicle sales saw significant growth, with production and sales increasing by 108.5% and 95.7% respectively [8][9]. 2. European and U.S. Market Performance - In Europe, NEV sales in April totaled 154,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, while the U.S. saw sales of 126,500 units, up 8.8% year-on-year [19][25]. - The report notes that the European market is recovering, while the U.S. market remains relatively sluggish, with a penetration rate of 9.1% [19][25]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the power battery segment, with specific stock picks including CATL and EVE Energy. It also suggests looking at companies benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics, such as Zhuhai Coslight and Xiamen Tungsten [29][32]. - The report emphasizes the potential of solid-state battery technology and recommends companies like DONGSHENG Technology, while also highlighting the supply chain for Tesla's 4680 battery [29][32].
隆基绿能:减值拖累短期业绩,持续聚焦技术创新
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 11:02
股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 资本货物/工业 [ Table_Main[ 隆TIna 基fbole] 绿 _T 能itle (] 6 01012) [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 减值拖累短期业绩,持续聚焦技术创新 目标价格: 21.34 上次预测: 37.20 公 当前价格: 18.50 司 庞钧文(分析师) 周淼顺(分析师) 朱攀(分析师) 2024.05.21 更 021-38674703 021-38038264 021-38031724 [交Ta易bl数e_据M arket] 新 pangjunwen@gtjas.com zhoumiaoshun@gtjas.com zhupan027597@gtjas.com 证书编号 S0880517120001 S0880521040003 S0880523090001 52周内股价区间(元) 18.17-33.35 报 总市值(百万元) 140,194 告 本报告导读: 总股本/流通A股(百万股) 7,578/7,578 流通B股/H股(百万股) 0/0 公司公告2023年年报与2024年一季报,受公 ...
协鑫科技:低成本高品质助力跨越周期,碳足迹优势有望突显
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 10:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company has a strong foundation in granular silicon technology and is rapidly expanding its production capacity while continuously improving product processes. The low-cost, high-quality granular silicon products are expected to help the company navigate through industry cycles, with a differentiated carbon footprint advantage likely to emerge [2]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated to be 2.134 billion, 3.045 billion, and 4.104 billion RMB respectively. Based on the valuation levels in the A/H share photovoltaic industry, a target market value of 42.68 billion RMB is set for 2024, corresponding to a target price of 1.71 HKD [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.47 billion RMB and a net profit of 330 million RMB for the first quarter of 2024. By the end of 2023, the nominal production capacity of granular silicon reached 420,000 tons, with effective capacity at 340,000 tons, and is expected to increase to 500,000 tons by the end of 2024 [2][3]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 34.129 billion RMB, reflecting a 7% decrease from the previous year. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 2.51 billion RMB, an 84% decrease compared to 2022 [3]. - The PE ratio for 2023 is noted at 12.31, with projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being 16.58, 11.62, and 8.62 respectively [3]. Production and Quality Improvements - The company’s granular silicon production utilizes the silane fluidized bed method, which significantly reduces electricity consumption compared to the mainstream Siemens method, providing a clear cost advantage. The product quality is continuously improving, with over 90% of granular silicon meeting the total metal impurity requirement of ≤0.5 ppbw [2]. - The company has achieved a turbidity level of granular silicon below 120 NTU, with 75% of the products below 100 NTU, and aims to further reduce this level [2]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing market demand for photovoltaic products with lower carbon footprints, as the production of granular silicon is associated with lower energy consumption, which is a significant contributor to carbon emissions in the photovoltaic supply chain [2]. - The report highlights that the company’s products have established a high barrier to entry, which is expected to help it navigate through industry cycles effectively [2].
柏诚股份:更新报告:订单高增贡献营收,竞争加剧压制毛利
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 08:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 13.09 CNY from the previous 17.62 CNY [2][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.98 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.6%. However, the performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and a provision for receivables and contract assets amounting to 60 million CNY [24]. - The semiconductor industry's expansion is driving demand, but the rapid increase in cleanroom manufacturers' capacity is intensifying competition, which is expected to continue to pressure profit margins into 2024 [24]. - The company has a strong order acquisition capability, particularly in the semiconductor sector, with a backlog of 2.87 billion CNY at the end of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 57.9% [24]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 5.07 billion CNY in 2024, 6.35 billion CNY in 2025, and 7.64 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 27%, 25%, and 20% respectively [10]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 271 million CNY in 2024, 344 million CNY in 2025, and 439 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 27% for both 2024 and 2025 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.52 CNY for 2024, 0.66 CNY for 2025, and 0.84 CNY for 2026 [10][24]. Industry Context - The cleanroom industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with the top three companies in the sector increasing their workforce by 13% year-on-year. The company itself has seen a 21% increase in employee numbers, which may continue to impact profit margins due to rising labor costs [24]. - The report highlights that the cleanroom sector is characterized by low asset intensity, primarily expanding through team size increases [24].
清洁电器5月报:行业增长动能延续,科沃斯推出多款新品
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 08:02
股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 家用电器业 [ Table_Main[ 2TI 0na 2fbo 4le] . _ 0T 5i .t 2le 1] [评Tab级le_:Inv est] 增持 上次评级: 增持 行业增长动能延续,科沃斯推出多款新品 [细Ta分bl行e_业su评bI级nd ustry] 行 ——清洁电器 5 月报 业 蔡雯娟(分析师) 李汉颖(研究助理) 曲世强(研究助理) 更 021-38031654 010-83939833 021-38031025 新 caiwenjuan024354@gtjas.co lihanying026725@gtjas.com qushiqiang028674@gtjas.co 证书编号 mS0 880521050002 S0880122070046 mS0 880123070132 本报告导读: 清洁电器4月内需增长动能延续,看好全年内销平稳回升;出海趋势延续,看好国产 [相Ta关ble报_D告oc Report] 品牌全球竞争力提升。龙头公司地位稳固,内外销均有提振空间。增持。 家用电器业《央行发布重磅地产政策,家空 摘要: 内外销 ...
IPO专题:新股精要—国内真空镀膜设备领先生产企业汇成真空
Guotai Junan Securities· 2024-05-21 06:02
本报告的信息来源于已公开的资料,本公司对该等信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本报告所载的资 料、意见 及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断,本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入可升可跌。 过往表现 不应作为日后的表现依据。在不同时期,本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保 证本报告 所含信息保持在最新状态。同时,本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改,投资者应当自行关 注相应的 更新或修改。 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。投资者不应将本报告作为作出投资决策的唯一参考因素,亦不应认为本报告可以取代自己 的判断。 在决定投资前,如有需要,投资者务必向专业人士咨询并谨慎决策。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、发表或引用。如征得本 公司同意 进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"国泰君安证券研究",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖 原意的引 用、删节和修改。 若本公司以外的其他机构(以下简称"该机构")发送本报告,则由该机构独自为此发送行为负责。通过此途径获 得本报告 的投资者应自行联系该机构以要求获 ...