格局演变迎景气机遇。回顾2020-2024年四年，行业竞争格局已悄然发生改变，我们预计：1）广东市场：百威销量市占率由2020年的2-3成或衰 退至2024年的2成左右，而珠江则保持持续增长及市占第一的水平（3成及以上）；2）福建市场：百威市占率或从2020年前的7-8成收缩至2024 年6成不到，而华润/喜力则从1成左右上升至25%以上；3）北方市场：燕京在北京河北及局部市场份额持续提升，华润、青啤则出现不同程度的收 缩。这背后的主要原因：1）高档场景收缩及就餐场景转换，2）管理能力及组织文化机制差异。我们认为2025年组织变革效应将进一步加剧格局分 化，从而带来局部市场的景气机遇，我们预计2025年竞争格局变化将呈现（按销量）：百威市占率收缩，华润、重啤市占率持平或微降，青啤、珠 江、燕京市占率提升。 亦可联系对口销售获取 | | | 国泰君安机构销售通讯录 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 姓名 | 区域 | 职务 | 邮箱 | | 邹小双 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 | zouxiaoshuang026001@gtjas.com | | 王亚明 | 上海 | 研究销售经理 ...

Exchange Rate and Central Bank Policy - The central bank has shifted from "enhancing exchange rate flexibility" to "enhancing exchange rate resilience," indicating a stronger stance against unilateral exchange rate expectations[1] - The central bank uses onshore market forward RMB exchange rate operations to guide market expectations, with the current swap premium fluctuating around 1000 pips[1] - The onshore market swap rate is 3.2% (swap point 0.2314/onshore exchange rate 7.33), providing a hedging benefit for investors[1] Investment Returns and Market Dynamics - Investing in 1-year Chinese bonds yields a comprehensive return of around 4.5%, higher than the 4.25% yield of 1-year US Treasury bonds[1] - The swap premium has reached historically high levels, indicating that the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments are relatively sufficient[2] - The central bank's recent statement to "pause buying government bonds" is crucial for stabilizing exchange rate expectations[2] Asset Pricing and Market Risks - Equity assets face liquidity challenges due to the reversal of loose expectations and some funds seeking overseas diversification[3] - The bond market favors a duration strategy, with 30-year bonds offering better value compared to 10-year bonds and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit[3] - Risks include potential tariff implementation and unexpected US inflation risks[4]

Consumption Sector - The report reviews the evolution of eight major consumption industries in the U.S., including food and beverage, cosmetics, retail, and automotive, highlighting significant changes over the past century[2] - The U.S. beer industry remains in a high prosperity phase despite being mature, driven by product innovation and structural upgrades, with profit margins improving across cycles[2] - The U.S. grocery sector shows growth opportunities through differentiation, with Dollar General focusing on low-income consumers and optimizing procurement costs[2] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are analyzed for their historical evolution, product frameworks, and financial data, indicating robust growth and innovation[5] - The Robotaxi industry in the U.S. is advancing rapidly, with companies like Waymo commercializing operations, suggesting a potential acceleration in development[5] - The inverter market in the U.S. is experiencing fast growth, with increasing penetration rates and a focus on ground-mounted and residential applications[5] Financial Sector - U.S. mutual fund sales fees are declining, driven by a shift towards self-service investment options and the demand for low-cost funds[6] - BlackRock is identified as the largest global asset management firm, primarily focusing on ETFs to meet institutional clients' needs[6] - The U.S. derivatives market is leading globally, with a focus on enhancing institutional returns through advanced trading capabilities[7] Macro Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a "soft landing" with mild re-inflation and high interest rates in 2025, with Treasury yields projected to fluctuate between 3.5% and 4.0%[11] - The report anticipates that the strong dollar will continue, potentially reaching new highs, while the S&P 500 is expected to benefit from economic resilience[11]

Group 1: Hydrogen Energy Development - The global hydrogen energy projects have increased to 1,572, a sevenfold growth since 2020[1] - Investment in global clean hydrogen projects has reached $75 billion, more than quadrupling since 2020[1] - By 2050, global hydrogen demand is projected to reach 520 million tons per year, accounting for 13% of total global energy use[1] Group 2: Electrolyzer Market Growth - Global electrolyzer shipments surged from 140 MW in 2018 to 1,908.2 MW in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 68.6%[2] - Alkaline electrolyzer shipments grew from 114.8 MW to 1,412.1 MW, with a CAGR of 65.2%[2] - PEM electrolyzer shipments increased from 25.2 MW to 496.1 MW, achieving a CAGR of 81.5%[2] - By 2030, global electrolyzer shipments are expected to reach 102,534.1 MW, with alkaline and PEM electrolyzers projected at 62,736.2 MW and 39,797.9 MW, respectively[2] Group 3: Fuel Cell Vehicle Sales Forecast - In 2024, hydrogen vehicle sales in Japan, the US, China, South Korea, and Germany are forecasted to be 919, 497, 11,271, 3,511, and 305 units, respectively, totaling 16,502 vehicles globally[3] - By 2030, projected hydrogen vehicle sales in these countries will rise to 419,935, 611,493, 614,654, 88,913, and 119,758 units, respectively, with a global total of 1,854,753 vehicles[3] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, underwhelming industrial policies, and slower-than-expected cost reductions in technology[4]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the humanoid robot industry, particularly highlighting the potential of Tesla and domestic manufacturers to succeed in this sector [1]. Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be the year of industrialization for Tesla's humanoid robots, with domestic automakers and major internet companies entering the AI robotics market [1]. - The report emphasizes the maturity of AI technology and its integration into various applications, such as mobile chassis dual-arm collaborative robots, quadruped robots based on motion control algorithms, and voice-interactive desktop companion robots [1]. - Key segments that are crucial for the industrialization of humanoid robots include embodied intelligent models, data, dexterous hands, and lead screws, which are recommended for investment focus [1].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Style Timing Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture the cyclical nature of different asset classes within the A-share market, particularly focusing on high dividend assets, micro-cap stocks, and mid-cap assets[3]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **High Dividend Assets**: The model identifies periods of significant excess returns in January-April, August, and November-December, while noting significant pullbacks in May-June[3]. - **Micro-cap Stocks**: The model considers regulatory changes and delisting systems as key factors. It identifies that a week of stable rebound often signals a short-term bottom[4]. - **Mid-cap Assets**: The model uses the CSI 1000 index as a representative of mid-cap assets. It identifies cyclical fluctuations in average investment returns, with the index's starting point often at an average return below -5% and a high point at a return above 10%[5]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the cyclical nature of different asset classes, providing insights into timing strategies for high dividend assets, micro-cap stocks, and mid-cap assets[3][4][5]. 2. Model Name: Industry Comparison Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model supplements traditional industry rotation strategies by incorporating the perspective of stock price pressure, assuming that incremental funds are evenly allocated across sectors[6]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the free float distribution model to quantify changes in shareholder behavior. - It generates the final industry selection indicators by equally weighting two factors. - **Factor 1**: Long-only portfolio annualized return of 2.2%, exhibiting strong style characteristics but with poor stability. - **Factor 2**: Long-only portfolio annualized return of 11%, achieving approximately 13% excess return over the CSI 300 index, with a long-short portfolio return of 18%, but with significant drawdowns in excess returns. - **Composite Factor**: Combining the two factors equally, the final factor significantly improves performance, with the long-only portfolio annualized return increasing to around 13%, relative excess return of 16%, and the short-only portfolio return of -10%, with drawdowns in excess returns reduced to around 10%[6]. - **Model Evaluation**: The composite factor significantly enhances the performance of the industry selection strategy, providing robust excess returns with reduced drawdowns[6]. Model Backtesting Results Style Timing Framework - **High Dividend Assets**: Significant excess returns in January-April, August, and November-December; notable pullbacks in May-June[3]. - **Micro-cap Stocks**: A week of stable rebound often signals a short-term bottom[4]. - **Mid-cap Assets**: Average investment returns below -5% indicate a starting point, while returns above 10% indicate a high point[5]. Industry Comparison Framework - **Factor 1**: Long-only portfolio annualized return of 2.2%[6]. - **Factor 2**: Long-only portfolio annualized return of 11%, excess return of 13% over the CSI 300 index, long-short portfolio return of 18%[6]. - **Composite Factor**: Long-only portfolio annualized return of around 13%, relative excess return of 16%, short-only portfolio return of -10%, drawdowns in excess returns reduced to around 10%[6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The oil transportation market is expected to experience a recovery in cargo volumes due to stricter sanctions on shadow fleets, which will help reduce effective shipping capacity [3]. - Despite a downturn in the oil transportation market in the second half of 2024, demand is anticipated to grow due to resilient traditional energy needs and increased crude oil production [4]. - The report highlights that the tightening of sanctions on shadow fleets, particularly those involved in Iranian oil exports, is likely to compress operational space for non-compliant vessels, thereby benefiting compliant market cargo recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Event - Domestic ports are reportedly planning to strengthen management of vessels involved in U.S. sanctions, potentially prohibiting them from docking and providing services [1]. - Approximately 274 oil tankers are currently on the U.S. Treasury's OFAC sanctions list, with 201 being crude oil tankers, representing about 6% of the global crude oil tanker fleet [1]. Section 2: Background - The oil transportation industry faced a pressure test in the second half of 2024, with Iranian oil exports increasing, leading to a diversion of compliant market cargo to shadow fleets [2]. - Economic fluctuations have weakened crude oil demand, while geopolitical conflicts have caused slow declines in oil prices, impacting refinery profitability and operational rates [2]. Section 3: Impact - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on shadow fleets, which has led to a reduction in Iranian oil exports in recent weeks due to concerns over potential further sanctions [3]. - The report suggests that the tightening of sanctions will lead to a decrease in the operational efficiency of older tankers, facilitating a recovery in compliant market cargo and a reduction in effective shipping capacity [3]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The oil transportation supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a rigid supply continuing and sanctions likely to further reduce effective capacity [4]. - The report anticipates that traditional energy demand will remain resilient, and an increase in crude oil production from OPEC+, South America, and North America will drive growth in oil trade [4].

Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU features 92 billion transistors, 3352 AI TOPS, and 380 RT TFLOPS, with a price drop from $1599 to $549 compared to the previous generation[1] - The Cosmos platform focuses on understanding physical world dynamics, aiding in the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving technologies[2] - The introduction of Agentic AI could represent a multi-trillion dollar commercial opportunity, with an estimated 1 billion knowledge workers globally[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Applications - Short-term commercialization of AI agents will primarily target B2B sectors such as programming, advertising, and customer service, while long-term prospects include consumer devices like AI smartphones and glasses[4] - The CES 2025 showcased various AI companion products, indicating a growing market for emotionally engaging AI devices[16] - AI glasses are emerging as viable hardware, integrating image recognition and voice interaction capabilities, enhancing user experience[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential delays in technology development, regulatory challenges, and slower-than-expected commercialization progress[5][10][15]

- The report introduces three fundamental asset allocation models: Black-Litterman, Risk Parity, and Macro Factor models, which are used to develop large asset allocation strategies across four major asset classes: domestic stocks, bonds, commodities, and gold[5] - The Black-Litterman (BL) model is constructed by combining the equilibrium market returns with the investor's views to generate a new set of expected returns. The formula used is: $ E[R] = \lambda \Sigma w + (1 - \lambda) Q $ where $ \lambda $ is the confidence level, $ \Sigma $ is the covariance matrix, $ w $ is the market equilibrium weights, and $ Q $ is the investor's views[5] - The Risk Parity model aims to allocate risk equally among all assets in the portfolio. The process involves calculating the risk contribution of each asset and adjusting the weights to equalize these contributions. The formula used is: $ RC_i = w_i \cdot \sigma_i \cdot \rho_{i, p} $ where $ RC_i $ is the risk contribution of asset $ i $, $ w_i $ is the weight of asset $ i $, $ \sigma_i $ is the volatility of asset $ i $, and $ \rho_{i, p} $ is the correlation between asset $ i $ and the portfolio[5] - The Macro Factor model incorporates macroeconomic indicators such as growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity to adjust asset allocation. The macro scores are assigned based on the current economic conditions, and the asset weights are adjusted accordingly[7] - The evaluation of the models indicates that the BL model has an out-of-sample return of 9.97% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 1.35% and an annualized volatility of 2.54%[6] - The Risk Parity model shows an out-of-sample return of 7.93% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 0.47% and an annualized volatility of 1.36%[6] - The Macro Factor model demonstrates an out-of-sample return of 6.82% for 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 0.63% and an annualized volatility of 1.52%[6] - The report highlights that the domestic asset BL strategy achieved a return of 1.4% in December 2024, while the Risk Parity strategy and the Macro Factor strategy achieved returns of 1.15% and 1.08%, respectively, in the same period[6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the smart glasses industry, particularly with the upcoming releases from various manufacturers, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The launch of the Thunderbird V3 AI glasses marks a significant advancement in the AR optical field, featuring a custom 12MP camera, high-quality audio, and advanced AI capabilities, which could set a new standard in the market [1][2]. - The collaboration between Thunderbird Innovation and Doctor Glasses for customized lens services enhances the product offering, catering to diverse consumer needs [1]. - The report highlights the expected release of multiple smart glasses from various manufacturers in 2025, suggesting a growing competitive landscape and innovation within the industry [2][3]. Summary by Sections - **Product Launch**: Thunderbird Innovation released the V3 AI glasses, weighing 39 grams, equipped with a Snapdragon AR1 platform, a custom 12MP camera, and a high-quality audio system [1]. - **Technological Advancements**: The report mentions the development of proprietary optical engines and collaborations with companies like Applied Materials for advanced light waveguide technology [2]. - **Market Trends**: The report anticipates a surge in smart glasses releases in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the domestic smart glasses supply chain [2][3].