Economic Policy - The central government emphasizes "expanding domestic demand" as the top priority, setting a proactive tone for the upcoming economic meetings[5] - Fiscal policy aims to "increase the deficit rate" and issue special bonds, while monetary policy suggests "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts"[6] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with continued efforts to support it, alongside potential new birth policies[9] Market Trends - The combination of a "strong dollar" and "low dollar interest rates" indicates investor confidence in the next U.S. government's execution capabilities, but this may face resistance over time[10][11] - The "China factor" is emerging as a new variable in the market, potentially replacing the current dynamics if the dollar's strength and interest rates are questioned[14] Investment Strategy - The downward trend of domestic risk-free interest rates is more certain compared to overseas, with expectations of continued capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks[20] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to slow in the first half of 2024, but if local debt approval powers are decentralized, the issuance pace may accelerate[25] IPO Market - The IPO market is anticipated to undergo reforms aimed at high-quality development, with new regulations expected to enhance listing standards and strengthen delisting requirements[29][30] - The expected issuance pace of new stocks in 2024 is at a historically low level, with a projected annual return of approximately 3.32% for A-class accounts[34] Sector Performance - The financial sector is expected to shift from a focus on dividends to recovery themes by 2025, with overall valuations anticipated to rise[38] - The energy sector is likely to benefit from improving demand and supply dynamics, particularly in the steel and new energy segments[46][48]

Content: --------- <doc id='26'>【金工】多视角打造事件驱动策略库 随着经济结构转型，传统依靠盈利增长进行选股的模式难度加大，偏股混合基金指数超额收益面临衰退，而事件 驱动策略的定价逻辑清晰可以作为机构选股方法的重要补充。 主营产品涨价选股策略：冷门股由于关注度低常存在反应不足的特点，跟踪400种产品现货价格和相应的1300家 上市公司股价，当产品价格上涨而股价未有显著变化时，买入相应个股的性价比较高。</doc> <doc id='27'>平稳创新高选股选股策略：根据对股市微观结构的研究，成交量平稳且上行延续性较好的股票其价格上涨更加稳 定。通过对个股涨幅、上涨平稳性、量比等条件的定量刻画筛选出符合条件的个股，可作为趋势交易策略的参 考。 指数成分股调整套利策略：随着被动投资理念的普及和股票ETF规模增长，当指数成分股发生调整时，被动资金加 仓有望驱动股票价格上涨，通过预测调入成分股并且提前布局可以实现套利收益。基于日历效应的选股策略：不 同行业板块的盈利存在淡旺季，会引发投资者关注度的季节性变化，而关注度提升容易带来增量资金，使得股价 产生日历效应。但是策略并非对收益率时间序列的简单统计，而应该结合关注度等指标进行综合选股。 盈利超预期策略：盈余公告后价格漂移现象在A股较为显著，通过上市公司财报、分析师预测行为变化定义业绩超 预期信号，从而筛选出符合条件的个股。入通选股策略：南下资金规模近些年持续增长，当新股首次入港股通后 有望获得南下资金的加仓，进一步对个股盈利模式以及与A股上市公司差异性比较，可筛选出容易被内资关注的个 股。</doc> <doc id='28'>风险提示：本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计算，不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。股市系统性风险 发生使得各类规律失效。宏观和产业政策超预期改变市场交易环境。报告中的模拟组合构建在实际投资中难以完 全复制，主要是证明方法论的有效性。本报告所涉及个股案例仅用来证明量化选股方法的有效性，而不构成个股 推荐。</doc> <doc id='29'>>>以上内容节选自国泰君安证券已经发布的研究报告：多视角打造事件驱动策略库，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等）请详见完整版报告。</doc> --------- Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Main Product Price Increase Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Focus on stocks with low attention that often have insufficient reactions to price changes[26] - **Construction Process**: Track the spot prices of 400 products and the stock prices of 1300 listed companies. When the product price rises but the stock price has not changed significantly, buy the corresponding stocks[26] - **Evaluation**: High cost-effectiveness due to low attention and insufficient reaction[26] Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Stocks with stable trading volume and continuous upward trend have more stable price increases[27] - **Construction Process**: Quantitatively describe conditions such as stock price increase, stability of price increase, and volume ratio to screen out eligible stocks[27] - **Evaluation**: Can be used as a reference for trend trading strategies[27] Model Name: Index Component Stock Adjustment Arbitrage Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Passive funds increase positions when index component stocks are adjusted, driving stock prices up[27] - **Construction Process**: Predict the stocks to be included in the index components and layout in advance to achieve arbitrage returns[27] - **Evaluation**: Beneficial due to the growth of stock ETFs and the popularity of passive investment concepts[27] Model Name: Calendar Effect Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Different industry sectors have seasonal changes in profitability, leading to seasonal changes in investor attention[27] - **Construction Process**: Combine attention indicators to comprehensively select stocks, rather than simply statistically analyzing the time series of returns[27] - **Evaluation**: Takes advantage of seasonal changes in investor attention to bring incremental funds[27] Model Name: Earnings Surprise Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Price drift phenomenon after earnings announcements is significant in A-shares[27] - **Construction Process**: Define earnings surprise signals through changes in company financial reports and analyst forecast behavior to screen out eligible stocks[27] - **Evaluation**: Effective in capturing price drift phenomenon after earnings announcements[27] Model Name: Southbound Stock Selection Strategy - **Construction Idea**: Southbound funds have been growing in recent years, and new stocks entering the Hong Kong Stock Connect are likely to receive increased positions from southbound funds[27] - **Construction Process**: Compare the profitability model of individual stocks and the differences with A-share listed companies to screen out stocks that are likely to be noticed by domestic investors[27] - **Evaluation**: Beneficial due to the continuous growth of southbound funds[27] Model Backtest Results - **Main Product Price Increase Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[26] - **Stable New High Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Index Component Stock Adjustment Arbitrage Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Calendar Effect Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Earnings Surprise Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27] - **Southbound Stock Selection Strategy**: No specific test results provided[27]

事件：中央经济工作会议12月11日至12日在北京举行。会议上强调了"人工智能+"行动为明年的重点任务。 会议明确 "开展'人工智能+'行动"为明年重点任务。会议对明年重点任务的提法第二条指出，"以科技创新引领新质 生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系。加强基础研究和关键核心技术攻关，超前布局重大科技项目，开展新技术新产品 新场景大规模应用示范行动。开展"人工智能+"行动，培育未来产业"，明确了AI产业发展的重要性。 国内互联网公司和创业公司的大模型产品持续进步，在用户积累、垂类开发、模态更新方面有初步成绩。经过一年多 的发展，国内的大模型在功能上不断改进、成绩不断提升。如字节"豆包"APP的11月国内月活已经接近6000万人， 百度"文小言"、月之暗面"Kimi智能助手"也均有超过1000万月活，腾讯的"元宝"更新到了2.0版本，整合了微信公众 号、视频号、QQ音乐等特色信息资源；垂类方面，minimax的AI情感陪伴应用"talkie"位列11月出海榜榜首，月活 达到2500万，作业帮"QuestionAI"、字节的"Gauth"作为AI教育的垂类应用，也分别有1051万862万月活用户； 多模态方面，腾讯"混元 ...

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for the aluminum, copper, lithium, and rare earth industries, highlighting strong demand and supply constraints as key factors driving investment opportunities [1][2]. Core Insights - The aluminum industry is experiencing a shift in pricing mechanisms due to increased resource constraints and higher upstream concentration, leading to improved profitability for alumina and bauxite in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be compressed [1]. - The copper market is characterized by a tight supply situation despite an anticipated increase in copper mine output, with demand driven by significant investments in power infrastructure, leading to a balanced yet constrained market [1]. - The lithium market is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices as supply clears, with strong demand from downstream sectors potentially leading to significant price elasticity for companies with their own mining operations [2]. - The rare earth market is projected to benefit from sustained demand driven by electric vehicles and wind energy, with new equipment updates expected to further boost demand starting in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The report notes that domestic mining resources are becoming increasingly scarce due to stricter environmental policies and mining duration, which enhances the bargaining power of resource suppliers [1]. - The profitability of alumina and bauxite is expected to increase significantly in 2024, while the profitability of electrolytic aluminum will face compression due to changing pricing mechanisms [1]. Copper - Despite a planned increase of 800,000 tons in copper mine output by 2025, actual increments may fall short due to operational disruptions and aging mines [1]. - The demand for refined copper is expected to remain robust, with a projected growth rate of nearly 3% in electricity demand driven by increased investments from state-owned power companies [1]. Lithium - The market consensus suggests that low prices will gradually clear supply, with a strong demand outlook leading to optimism about future price increases [2]. - Companies with their own mining operations are positioned to benefit from lower costs and greater price elasticity in the next demand cycle [2]. Rare Earth - The report anticipates that demand for rare earth elements will remain strong due to increasing consumption in electric vehicles and wind energy, countering previous expectations of a slowdown [2]. - The orderly supply situation in China and slow overseas production increases will continue to constrain supply, supporting price stability [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The public utilities sector is currently at historically low absolute valuations [1] Core Views - The government's priority for the power industry has shifted from "reducing electricity prices" to "ensuring supply security" and "low-carbon transition" [2] - Power companies need to ensure reasonable expected returns for thermal power projects to stimulate investment enthusiasm [2] - Increased capital expenditure on new energy is required to meet clean and low-carbon transition needs [2] - The power system reform is progressing, with new energy market entry accelerating and time-of-use pricing mechanisms being introduced in some provinces [3] - Thermal power is gradually transitioning from base-load power to regulating power due to the development of new energy [3] Investment Opportunities Thermal Power - Three non-cyclical factors (capacity electricity price support, reduced financing costs, long-term coal cost locking) are driving the weakening of industry cyclicality [4] - Overall profitability stability of thermal power has improved, but regional profit differentiation exists [4] Hydropower - High-quality large hydropower projects are recommended for reverse layout, regardless of water inflow pressure [4] Nuclear Power - Long-term implied return rates are worth attention [4] Wind and Solar Power - High-quality stocks with excellent locations and high wind power ratios should be selected [4] Gas - Focus on the improvement trend of free cash flow and the enhancement of dividend value [4]

Investment Recommendation - Overweight recommendation: Focus on companies with upward product momentum and high growth elasticity, strong brand momentum leaders, and those expected to bottom out and potentially rebound [1] Industry Trends - Post-2022 consumption pressure and 2023 consumer destocking, the beauty and personal care industry saw a recovery in 2024 with normalized purchasing cycles and improved industry sentiment, evidenced by double-digit growth in online beauty sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [2] - Intensified competition post-channel红利消退, with platform traffic and price competition heating up, leading to further brand differentiation [2] - The rise of new domestic brands in beauty and personal care, with strong performance from leading domestic brands due to organizational efficiency in product innovation and channel operations [2] Structural Opportunities - Personal care transformation: Content e-commerce creates new environments for product launches and marketing, with brands strong in product innovation and operations likely to break through [3] - Affordable consumption: Continued trend of cost-effectiveness driven by supply-demand resonance, benefiting brands with strong supply chains and superior operations [3] - Emotional consumption: Emotional value drives demand for culture, style, and experience, benefiting domestic makeup and fragrance personal care [3] - Ingredient innovation: Recombinant collagen supply-side ingredients and category evolution catalyze demand expansion, maintaining high popularity [3] Key Companies - Anticipated significant recovery in market risk appetite by 2025, with the beauty and personal care sector benefiting from numerous changes and the overall rise of domestic brands, showing clear growth attributes [4] - Intensified brand differentiation at the fundamental level, recommending bottom-up selection of companies with product and channel changes and elasticity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on AI-driven growth and domestic substitution opportunities [1][2] Core Views - Semiconductor autonomy and controllability remain a key theme in the tech sector, with a focus on advanced process platforms and CoWoS advanced packaging [1] - AI is driving an upward trend in the semiconductor industry, with advancements in PC, mobile, and server upgrades, leading to increased utilization rates in advanced processes [1] - AI Agents are accelerating the empowerment of hardware terminals, enhancing user experience across various devices [1] - Cloud providers continue to increase Capex, with domestic GPUs facing development opportunities and breakthroughs in advanced processes [2] Industry Analysis Semiconductor Industry - AI is leading the semiconductor industry's upward trend, with domestic manufacturers making progress in mature processes and mid-to-low-end products, gradually moving towards high-end segments [1] - The industry is benefiting from AI-driven upgrades in PCs, mobile devices, and servers, with growth in areas like HBM and 3D NAND [1] - Domestic substitution is expected to be a main theme in future tech upgrades, with a focus on advanced processes, advanced packaging, HBM, and equipment [2] AI and Hardware Integration - AI Agents are being commercialized, enhancing hardware terminals such as mobile phones, PCs, and wearable devices, leading to a significant improvement in user experience [1] - The integration of AI with hardware is driving a qualitative change in user experience, with the industry chain expected to benefit significantly [1] Cloud and GPU Development - Cloud providers like Microsoft and Google are maintaining or increasing their Capex, with strong demand for Nvidia GPUs [2] - Domestic GPUs, represented by Ascend, are facing development opportunities due to potential export restrictions on GPUs [2] - The domestic semiconductor industry is focusing on breakthroughs in advanced processes and packaging, with companies like SMIC leading the charge [2] Key Companies and Products - The report highlights companies involved in advanced process platforms, CoWoS advanced packaging, and AI-driven hardware integration [1] - New products like Phase 8L and the integration of AI with hardware terminals are mentioned as key areas of focus [1] - The report also notes the entry of new major clients such as Unisoc, Samsung, and Xiaomi [1]

Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the industry, particularly favoring leading brokerages with stronger institutional and retail client investment services [4] Core Views - The industry experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to the parent company of listed brokerages by 5.93% in the first three quarters of 2024, but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.09% in Q3 2024 [1] - The 924 New Policy has driven incremental funds into the market, leading to a marginal recovery in brokerages' proprietary trading businesses and contributing to the quarter-on-quarter profit improvement [2] - In 2025, capital market reforms are expected to take effect, boosting institutional clients' equity asset allocation and benefiting leading brokerages with stronger comprehensive service capabilities [3] - Retail business is anticipated to grow due to increased demand for equity asset allocation among residents, with ETFs and online customer acquisition expected to contribute to incremental growth [3] - The adjusted revenue of listed brokerages is projected to increase by 9.37% year-on-year in 2025, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to rise by 12.48% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in leading brokerages that have advantages in institutional and retail client investment services [4] - Brokerages with potential to enhance institutional service capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, as well as those with competitive advantages in retail services and financial technology, are also recommended [4]

Group 1: Geopolitical Insights - Trump's Middle East geopolitical policy is a focal point of discussion[2] - The implications of this policy on commodity markets are explored[1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Copper market dynamics and outlook are presented by Ji Xianfei[3] - Gold market expectations and logical analysis are provided by Jiang Shu[4] Group 3: Expert Profiles - Zhang Chuchu, a prominent researcher in Middle Eastern politics and energy economics, leads discussions[5] - Ji Xianfei, a recognized analyst in non-ferrous metals, shares insights on trading strategies[6] - Jiang Shu, a chief analyst in gold, has extensive experience in precious metals trading[7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the intensification of U.S. chip sanctions against China, along with large-scale debt reduction measures by local governments and the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies, is expected to drive the innovative computing industry to exceed expectations [1]. Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce has introduced a new round of export control measures against China, marking the largest scale of sanctions to date, with 140 Chinese semiconductor-related companies added to the "entity list" [1]. - Four major industry associations in China have collectively stated that U.S. chips are no longer reliable or safe, urging Chinese companies to exercise caution in procurement [2]. - The Chinese government has established a reliable procurement system, which is expected to lead to an unexpected growth in the innovative computing industry starting from Q4 2024 [3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Sanctions Impact - The new U.S. sanctions include advanced process semiconductor manufacturing equipment and software tools, as well as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) controls, significantly affecting the semiconductor supply chain [1]. Industry Response - Major Chinese industry associations have expressed a loss of trust in U.S. chip products, suggesting a shift in procurement strategies towards safer semiconductor suppliers, which may create opportunities for rapid development in the sector [2]. Government Initiatives - The Chinese government has initiated a security and reliability assessment system for procurement, which will be mandatory for government agencies, potentially boosting the innovative computing industry [3].