Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Indicators - Domestic demand remains relatively insufficient, with CPI increases primarily driven by food prices, while PPI shows a significant decline, indicating weak demand, especially in black metal processing[9] - The acceleration in export growth and a decline in import growth reflect a mixed picture of internal and external demand, suggesting a need for further domestic demand expansion policies[9] - Recent data indicates that the effective demand is still lacking, necessitating an increase in total policy measures[2] Group 2: U.S. Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is high, driven by disappointing non-farm employment data and declining inflation, with market expectations for a total of 100bps cuts this year possibly being overly optimistic[2][13] - The core CPI's unexpected rise indicates persistent core inflation, particularly in services and housing, which may influence the Fed's rate cut pace[13] - The upcoming U.S. presidential election could impact fiscal deficits and inflation, with both Democratic and Republican outcomes likely to affect the Fed's monetary policy trajectory[15] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares have continued to adjust with reduced trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 4.86% and the ChiNext Index down 2.87% over the past ten trading days[17] - The recent policy changes, including the reduction of foreign investment restrictions in the manufacturing sector, may provide long-term benefits to the capital market[17][24] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from new regulatory measures aimed at enhancing risk management and promoting high-quality development[24][27]

行 业 研 机 械 设 备 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月13日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -34% -27% -20% -14% -7% 0% 7% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企 稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报 告 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 自动化设备下游有待企稳，寻找结构性 ] ——机械设备行业周报（20240909-20240913） 机会 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 短期看，自动化设备内需市场整体增速放缓。按照申万行业分类，自动化设备为机械设备 下属二级行业，机器人、工控设备、激光设备为三级子行业。根据同花顺测算的行业平均 营收增速，2021年后，自动化设备领域主要子行业成长放缓，其中机器人板块2024H1平 均营收同比下降 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师：杜永宏 执业证书编号： 联系人：付婷 联系方式： | 证券分析师：伍可心 执业证书编号： | S0630522120001 | | 2 核心观点 ● 受多因素扰动上半年业绩承压，下半年业绩有望企稳向好。统计432家医药生物板块上市公司2024H1整体实现营业收入 12287.04亿元，同比下降0.98%；归母净利润1024.87亿元，同比下降8.97%。2023Q1-2024Q2，医药生物行业上市公司营 收同比增速分别为2.10%、5.33%、-3.32%、-1.87%、-0.40%、-1.58%；归母净利润同比增速分别为0.16%、-1.25%、- 4.61%、4.02%、1.66%、-2.42%。受疫情基数 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月12日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240912 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.国茂股份（603915）：需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏——食品饮料行业周报（2024/9/2-2024/9/8） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》 ➢ 2.美国8月未季调CPI低于预期，核心CPI持平预期 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推荐 ............. 3 1.1. 国茂股份（603915 ): 需求有待企稳，经营性回款改善――公司简评报告.. 3 1.2. 旺季批价波动，关注需求复苏――食品饮料行业周报（2024/ ...

Inflation Data - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the expected 2.6% and down from the previous 2.9%[2] - The core CPI rose by 3.2% year-on-year, matching expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[2] Market Implications - The unexpected strength in core inflation has raised the probability of a 25bps rate cut in September to 87%, up from 66%[3] - The likelihood of a 50bps cut decreased from 34% to 13%[3] Price Trends - Energy prices were a major drag, with gasoline and fuel prices falling by 0.6% and 1.9% respectively month-on-month[2] - Housing prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing over 80% to the CPI's month-on-month growth[3] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods prices have been on a downward trend for five of the last six months, although the rate of decline has slowed[2] - The prices of used cars have seen a narrowing decline, while new car prices remained stable compared to previous values[2] Economic Outlook - The persistence of inflation, particularly in housing and services, suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends[3] - Changes in political support, particularly related to the presidential election, may influence inflation expectations and asset prices[3]

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20240911 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.8月外贸数据的"热"与"冷"——国内观察：2024年8月进出口数据 ➢ 2.中非光储领域合作推进，8月电车销量表现优异——电池及储能行业周报（20240902- 20240908） ➢ 3.光伏硅料硅片挺价，风电招开标规模持续增加——新能源电力行业周报（20240902- 20240908) 财经要闻 ➢ 1.十四届全国人大常委会第十一次会议在京举行 ➢ 2.外交部表示坚决反对美众议院通过的生物安全法草案 ➢ 3.习近平在全国教育大会上强调：紧紧围绕立德树人根本任务朝着建成教育强国战略目标 扎实迈进 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 正文目录 1. 重点推 ...

公 司 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年09月11日 公 司 简 评 [Table_invest] 增持（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 数据日期 收盘价 | 2024/09/11 4.51 | | 总股本 ( 万股 ) | 9,916,108 | | 流通 A 股 /B 股 ( 万股 ) | 6,712,240/0 | | 资产负债率 (%) | 93.87% | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | 0.44 | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | 5.72 | | 12 个月内最高 / 最低价 | 5.22/4.21 | [Table_QuotePic] -21% -16% -10% -5% 1% 6% 12% 17% 23-09 23-12 24-03 24-06 邮储银行 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 23X, 18X, and 15X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Core Views - The company is a leader in the automotive lighting control segment, with a strong position in global platform projects and a clear trend of increasing market share [4] - The company is benefiting from the trend of vehicle EEA (Electrical/Electronic Architecture) upgrades, with successful expansion into new high-value products such as domain controllers and Efuse [4] - The company is entering a global operational phase, with plans to expand production capacity in key markets such as Japan, Europe, and North America [4] Company Overview - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including lighting control systems, motor control systems, energy management systems, and automotive electronics [11] - The company has a strong relationship with Volkswagen and has expanded its customer base to include BMW, Renault-Nissan, Ford, Toyota, and Suzuki [11] - The company is a family-owned business with a concentrated equity structure, with the controlling family holding a significant portion of the shares [13] Market Position and Growth - The company is a global leader in automotive lighting control, with a strong presence in the LED lighting segment and a growing market share in adaptive lighting systems [11] - The company has successfully expanded into new product areas such as domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to drive future growth [4] - The company is focusing on global expansion, with plans to establish production facilities in Japan, Europe, and North America to serve local customers [14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown strong growth, with revenue increasing by 37% YoY in 2023 and net profit increasing by 35% YoY [16] - The company's energy management system business has seen rapid growth, driven by the successful launch of new products such as chassis controllers and body domain controllers [17] - The company's gross margin has declined slightly due to increased competition in the domestic passenger vehicle market, but the energy management system business has shown improved profitability [18] Industry Trends - The automotive lighting industry is undergoing a transformation, with LED lighting becoming the dominant technology and adaptive lighting systems gaining popularity [22] - The trend towards vehicle EEA upgrades is driving demand for domain controllers and Efuse, which are expected to see rapid growth in the coming years [45] - The shift towards centralized and zonal EEA architectures is creating opportunities for new suppliers, particularly in the areas of body domain control and chassis control [53] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in automotive lighting and EEA upgrades, with a strong product portfolio and a growing customer base [4] - The company's focus on global expansion and new product development is expected to drive continued growth in the coming years [14] - The company's financial performance is expected to remain strong, with revenue and net profit projected to grow at a CAGR of 25% and 27% respectively from 2024 to 2026 [5]

Group 1: Export Data - August exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, up from 7.0% in July, marking a new high for the year[11] - The trade surplus expanded to $91.02 billion, compared to the previous value of $84.65 billion[11] - Exports to the EU and Japan saw significant growth, with increases of 5.4 and 6.5 percentage points respectively[12] Group 2: Import Data - August imports amounted to $217.63 billion, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, down from 7.2% in July[22] - The market had anticipated a 3.6% increase in imports, indicating a significant shortfall[22] - The decline in import growth reflects weak domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI new orders index falling to 48.9[22] Group 3: Market Outlook - Global manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - The potential for a decline in export growth in Q4 is suggested by recent trends in the U.S. manufacturing PMI and employment data[25] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to be strengthened in response to current economic conditions[25] Group 4: Risks - International geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may lead to unexpected disruptions[26] - Domestic policy implementation may fall short of expectations, potentially weakening market confidence and economic recovery[26]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights that food prices have driven a slight increase in CPI, while raw material prices have negatively impacted PPI, as observed in the inflation data for August 2024. CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while PPI fell by 1.8% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that the increase in CPI is primarily due to food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and pork, which are expected to continue supporting CPI in the fourth quarter. Conversely, PPI is affected by declining prices of upstream raw materials and weak domestic demand [6][9]. Group 2: Company Analysis - Penghui Energy (300438) - Penghui Energy reported a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in Q2 2024, with revenues of 2.176 billion yuan, a 36.3% increase from the previous quarter, although year-on-year net profit decreased by 63.2% to 25 million yuan [9][10]. - The company is focusing on solid-state battery technology, with plans for mass production by 2026. The first generation of solid-state batteries has been released, featuring an energy density of 280 Wh/kg and a production cost only 15% higher than conventional lithium batteries [9][10]. - Penghui Energy's storage battery business is expected to grow rapidly, supported by strong demand from key clients and a comprehensive product matrix. The company ranked among the top 8 in global energy storage market shipments in 2023 [9][10]. Group 3: Economic and Market Insights - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting high-quality development in the low-altitude industry, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation and policy improvement [12]. - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.06% to 2736 points, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.06% [12][13].