Group 1: Key Recommendations - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% and plans to gradually reduce its monthly government bond purchases from 6 trillion yen to about 3 trillion yen by early 2026, exceeding market expectations [6][7]. - The core inflation rate in Japan was 2.6% year-on-year in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, with optimistic projections for core inflation to remain around 2.5% in FY2024 [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this trend into 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation declines [6][7]. Group 2: Company Analysis - CATL (宁德时代) - In H1 2024, CATL reported revenue of 166.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [9][10]. - The company's energy storage revenue grew by 3% year-on-year in H1 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 28.87% [9][10]. - CATL's battery shipments exceeded 205 GWh in H1 2024, maintaining a global market share of approximately 37.5% in the power battery segment, with expectations to ship over 480 GWh in 2024 [9][10]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5%, indicating a neutral to dovish stance in the July FOMC meeting, which may pave the way for a potential rate cut in September [11][12]. - The Fed's language regarding employment and inflation has softened, suggesting a balance of risks, but it has not ruled out the possibility of not cutting rates [11][12]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September may be overly optimistic, as the stock market has priced in these expectations without adequately considering the potential for economic downturns [11][12].

Key Recommendations - Manufacturing PMI slightly declined in July, indicating a need for stronger economic recovery efforts. The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and below the 10-year average of 50.4% [6][7] - Domestic tire companies are making progress in catching up with global leaders, with a focus on scale, profitability, brand influence, and globalization strategies. The top three global tire companies hold a combined market share of 39%, while China's leading companies have a market share of 1-2% [8][9] - CME predicts that excavator export growth is expected to turn positive, with domestic sales also showing improvement. July excavator sales are estimated at around 14,000 units, with a projected year-on-year growth of approximately 11% [10][11] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with both production and new order indices declining. The production index fell to 50.1%, and the new order index dropped to 49.3% [7] - New export orders showed a slight recovery, indicating stabilization in external demand, while domestic demand remains a significant constraint [7][8] - The cost pressures on enterprises have eased due to a decline in raw material prices, with the raw material price index dropping to 49.9% [7] Tire Industry Insights - Domestic tire companies are in a rapid expansion phase, with significant improvements in return on equity (ROE) for companies like Guizhou Tire and Sailun Tire, indicating high-quality capital investment returns [8][9] - The revenue growth rate for China's leading tire companies in 2023 is projected between 12% and 23%, significantly outperforming overseas competitors [8] - The market share of domestic top three tire companies has increased from 1.14% in 1998 to 5.32% in 2022, showcasing substantial progress [9] Excavator Market Outlook - The domestic excavator market is expected to improve due to policy effects and increased demand from infrastructure investments. The average inventory of domestic dealers has decreased, indicating a positive market sentiment [10][11] - The production of metal cutting machine tools in China has shown positive growth, with a cumulative production of 333,000 units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 5.7% year-on-year increase [10][11] Policy and Economic Context - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macroeconomic policies to support economic recovery, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new measures [13] - The recent meeting led by Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of stabilizing expectations and boosting confidence through tangible policy actions [13]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年08月01日 [如何看待美联储 Table_NewTitle] 9月降息概率？ ——海外观察：2024年7月美国FOMC会议 [table_main] 投资要点 Ø 事件：美联储维持联邦基金利率的目标区间在 5.25% 至 5.5% 不变，符合预期。 Ø 核心观点：7月FOMC会议整体态度中性偏鸽，措辞较上次会议更温和，暗示就业和通胀 的双重风险趋于平衡，为9月降息做了铺垫，但也没有排除不降息的可能性，为未来变化 留下了充足空间。市场解读本次会议基调偏鸽，美元资产继续交易降息预期，可能过于 乐观。当前美股市场对于美联储降息的计价已经较为充分，而对降息背后经济下行的计 价有所不足。一旦经济增速不及预期，美联储9月降息靴子落地，美股可能反而会下跌， 开始计价衰退。如果未来经济偏强，降息预期回落，可能反而更有利于美股大盘走势。 Ø 7月FOMC会议释放的信号整体中性偏鸽。美联储对于就业和通胀情况描述采用的措辞较 上次会议都变得更加温和，认为双重风险更趋平衡。会议声明中对于就业增长的描述从上 次会议的"强劲"变为"温和"，认为失业率虽然有所上升但仍处于低 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 166.77 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.21%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [7] - The company's energy storage revenue increased by 3.00% year-on-year in H1 2024, while the average price of batteries remained stable at approximately 0.70 yuan/Wh [7] - The company achieved a lithium battery shipment of over 205 GWh in H1 2024, with a global market share of approximately 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.3 percentage points [7] - The product matrix continues to expand, with significant advancements in both the power and energy storage segments, enhancing project profitability [7] Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 416.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.81%, and a net profit of 50.08 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.51% [9] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 23.45% in 2024, with an EPS of 11.39 yuan [9] - The company is expected to ship over 480 GWh of batteries by 2024, with a corresponding net profit forecast of 72.15 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a growth trajectory [8][9]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% on July 31, 2024, exceeding market expectations[2] - The monthly government bond purchase amount will be gradually reduced from about 6 trillion yen to around 3 trillion yen by January to March 2026[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6% in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target[2] - Nominal wage growth accelerated to 2% year-on-year in May 2024, while real wage growth was -1.2%[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this in 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation decline[3] - The future trajectory of the yen will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policies, with expectations of a potential depreciation if the Fed's rate cut expectations decrease[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include exchange rate fluctuations, policy adjustment uncertainties, and external economic impacts[3]

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月31日 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月31日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -38% -30% -23% -15% -7% 0% 8% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle] CME预测挖机出口增速有望转正， 关注工业母机自主可控发展进程 ——机械设备行业周报（20240722-20240728） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 工程机械数据前瞻：挖掘机出口增速有望转正，内销或持续向好。 CME预测，7月挖掘机销量为14000台左右。据CME（工程机械杂志）预估，2024年7月挖 掘机总销量有望同比增长11%左右（上月实际总销量同比增速为5%）。其中，国内预估销 量为6000台，同比增长近17%；出口预估销量为80 ...

证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 联系人：马小萱 联系方式：mxxuan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 联系人：张晶磊 联系方式：zjlei@longone.com.cn 2024 07 31 随着技术进步和海内外市场同步拓展，国产轮胎企业展现出了强大的竞争力和发展潜力。我们对国内外龙头胎企的规模、盈利能力、品牌影响 力以及全球化战略等多方面将进行对比，探究国产胎企与海外龙头当前的差距，以及我国胎企升级全球头部的发展路径。 行业格局方面，全球轮胎市场由米其林、普利司通和固特异等头部主导，三家市占率合计39%，二梯队企业市占率在2%-9%之间，合计占比 25%，我国头部企业中策橡胶、赛轮轮胎、玲珑轮胎等市占率在1%-2%之间，此外部分市占率小于1%的国内胎企通用轮胎、森麒麟、贵州轮 胎等也表现出强劲的发展势头。 企业规模方面，2023年，头部企业资产规模平均达330亿美元，二梯队约百亿美元，中国企业则在16-60亿美元。扩产情况来看，我国胎企自 2020年进入加速扩产周期，此外我们加入ROE指标协同观察产能的兑现情况， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for sustained and stronger macro policies, with a target to achieve around 5% economic growth for the year, highlighting the importance of consumption and domestic demand expansion [9][10][63] - The meeting pointed out that macro policies should focus on improving residents' income expectations and boosting consumption, with specific measures such as issuing special bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and subsidies for durable consumer goods [10][19][63] - The meeting also discussed the importance of developing emerging industries and future industries, indicating that these areas are essential for the transformation and upgrading process [9][27][63] Group 2 - In Q2 2024, public fund holdings in the semiconductor sector reached 8.39%, with the top 20 holdings accounting for 90% of the total market value of semiconductor stocks, indicating a strong concentration in leading companies within the sector [6][14][62] - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector's valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential investment opportunities as demand gradually recovers and prices stabilize [16][30] - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from strong overseas demand in the AIOT sector and those involved in AI innovation, as well as upstream supply chain companies expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends [16][30]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月30日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -31% -22% -14% -6% 2% 10% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电子(0727) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.Q2中国智能手机出货量同比增长 8.9%，3000亿特别国债助力消费品 以旧换新 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 2024/7/22-2024/7/28 2. 国 产 汽 车 芯 片 迎 催 化 良 机 ， 2024Q2全球智能手机出货同比增长 6.5%——电子行业周报（20240715- 20240721） 3.IoT出海高景气度持续，台积电Q2 业绩超预期市值首破万亿美元—— 电子行业周报2024/7/8-2024/7/14 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 2024Q2公募持仓半导体比例高达 8.39%，TOP20持仓个 ...