原油供给预计宽松，下游或迎复苏行情 原油及聚酯产业链月报（2025年3月） 证券分析师：张季恺 执业证书编号：S0630521110001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号：S0630522020001 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 邮箱：zjk@longone.com.cn 目 录 原油价格影响因素及预测 | 指标 | 展望 | 油价影响 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年2月布伦特原油维持震荡下行，月底收于73美元/桶左右。OPEC+国家将按计划从4月起逐步放松减产，其中将逐步增加阿联酋30 | | | 油价判断 | 万桶/日的配额。美联储2025年2月继续暂停降息符合预期，随着cpi高于预期，预计降息将会继续推迟。综合来看，油价短期在65美元/桶 | | | | 之上具备地缘政治支撑；我们认为原油长期受需求面影响大，随着美联储之后恢复降息，原油回调风险增加；预计2025年全年布伦特在 | | | | 55-80美元/桶波动。 | | | 全球石油供应 | OPEC+的165万桶/天的额外减产协议将延长至2026年底，而220万桶的自愿减产协议 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月11日 [table_invest] 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -32% -20% -8% 5% 17% 29% 41% 24-03 24-06 24-09 24-12 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.采煤迈入无人化智能时代，综采装 备技术升级正当时——机械设备行 业深度报告 [Table_NewTitle "具身智能] +煤炭"助推采煤迈入无人化 智能时代 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 简 评 机 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 联系人 商俭 二、分析师声明： 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证以专业严谨的研究方法和分析逻 辑，采用合 ...

跑输 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月11日 超配 业 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 伍可心 S0630522120001 wkx@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相关研究 table_product] 1.轻舟已过，耐心布局—医药生物行 业2025年度策略 2.收入端企稳，利润端可期——医药 生物行业2024年三季报业绩综述 3.荣昌生物（688331）：收入持续快 速增长，经营效率提升——公司简评 报告 [Table_NewTitle 关注药品价格新趋势 ] ——医药生物行业周报（2025/3/3-2025/3/9） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现： 上周（3月3日至3月7日）医药生物板块整体上涨1.06%，在申万31个行业中排第19位， 跑输沪深300指数0.333个百分点。年初至今，医药生物板块整体上涨2.19%，在申万31个 行业中排第14位，跑赢沪深300指数1.96个百分点。当前，医药生物板块PE估值为26.65 倍 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250311 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 ➢ 1.广州：正部署成立产业办，专门推进人工智能相关工作 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.弱商品下的长周期复苏，权益资产占优——资产配置周报（2025/03/03-2025/03/07） ➢ 2.3月CPI同比转正的难度不大——国内观察：2025年2月通胀数据 ➢ 3.挖机1-2月内销大幅增长，全年行业复苏或将确立——机械设备行业简评 | | 1.1. 弱商品下的长周期复苏，权益资产占优——资产配置周报（2 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月10日 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 于卓楠 S0630524100001 yzn@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -26% -15% -5% 6% 16% 27% 37% 24-02 24-05 24-08 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.抢装带动行业需求回暖，多地海风 项目建设持续推进——新能源电力 行业周报（2025/02/24-2025/02/28） 2.电车渗透率维持高位，国内储能市 场迎高质量发展——电池及储能行 业周报（2025/02/17-2025/02/23） 3.光伏政策推动排产回暖，2024年国 内新签风机订单量高增——新能源 电 力 行 业 周 报 （ 2025/02/17- 2025/02/21） [Table_NewTitle ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The excavator and loader sales in January-February 2025 showed significant growth, suggesting a potential industry recovery throughout the year [3][5]. - Domestic excavator sales increased by 51.4% year-on-year, driven by low base effects from the previous year, accelerated infrastructure investment, and supportive government policies [5][7]. - The loader sales also experienced a 16.5% year-on-year increase, with electric loaders showing a notable penetration rate of 14.49% [5][7]. - The government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting urbanization, which is expected to support demand for construction machinery [5][7]. - Domestic manufacturers are adjusting prices upward due to recovering demand and improved competition dynamics [5][7]. - The report suggests monitoring leading companies with strong brand recognition and efficient cost structures, such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, as they are well-positioned for growth [5][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, a total of 31,782 excavators were sold, marking a 27.2% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales reaching 17,045 units, up 51.4% [5][7]. - Loader sales reached 16,650 units, reflecting a 16.5% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales of 8,211 units, up 26.2% [5][7]. Market Trends - The report highlights a trend towards electric loaders, with sales of 2,413 units in January-February 2025, indicating a growing acceptance of electric machinery in the market [5][7]. - The government's commitment to infrastructure investment, with a proposed allocation of 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, is expected to further stimulate the construction machinery sector [5][7]. Price Adjustments - Recent price adjustments by domestic manufacturers indicate a recovery in demand, with increases of 10,000 to 30,000 yuan depending on the excavator size [5][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong overseas expansion strategies and robust product offerings, as the industry is entering a phase of accelerated recovery [5][7].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月10日 标配 业 周 报 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [相table_product] 关研究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 1.海外科技股2024Q4业绩持续 回暖，DeepSeek大模型引燃 AI云与端热情——半导体行业 2月份月报 1. 海外科技股2024Q4业绩持续回 暖，DeepSeek大模型引燃AI云与端 热情——半导体行业2月份月报 2. 英伟达Blackwell芯片需求高涨， 小米新机与新车发布拉动市场热情 ——电子行业周报（2025/2/24- 2025/3/2） 3. 阿里资本开支持续高增，马斯克 公布新一代AI模型Grok3——电子行 业周报（2025/2/17-2025/2/23） [Table_NewTitle] AI Agent产品Manus亮相，AI眼镜驱动 消费电子新一轮增长 ——电子行业周报2025/3/3-2025/3/9 [table_main] 投资要点： ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月10日 [table_invest] 超配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 [相关研究 table_product] 1.底部反弹，预期回暖——食品饮料 行业周报（2024/2/24-2025/3/2） 2.酒企积极停货稳价，政策驱动内需 复 苏 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2024/2/17-2025/2/23） 3.市场预期回暖，静待需求修复—— 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （ 2024/2/10- 2025/2/16） [Table_NewTitle 扩内需促消费，政策催化持续 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/3/3-2025/3/9） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 食 品 饮 料 ➢ 二级市场表现：上周食品饮料板块上涨0.74%，跑输沪深300指数0.65个百分点，食品饮料 板块在3 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250310 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 1.科技向新赋能，消费向质跃迁——两会经济主题记者会解读 ➢ 2.关注关税政策后续对出口的影响——国内观察：2025年1-2月进出口数据 ➢ 3.海外科技股2024Q4业绩持续回暖，DeepSeek大模型引燃AI云与端热情——半导体行业 2月份月报 ➢ 1.2月美国非农就业略低于预期 ➢ 2.美联储主席鲍威尔：在特朗普政策影响进一步明晰前不急于降息 ➢ 3.2月外储规模上升，继续 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a long-term recovery under weak commodity conditions, favoring equity assets, particularly in the technology sector, while cyclical stocks show mixed performance [11][12][15] - The report suggests that the current economic phase may be in the second stage of Martin Pring's six economic cycles, indicating continued pressure on resource prices and a relative decline in the attractiveness of bonds compared to equities [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of the National People's Congress (NPC) themes, with a high frequency of mentions for "technology" and "consumption," indicating potential policy support for these sectors [12][13] Group 2 - In the global asset review, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks performed well, while U.S. stocks generally adjusted; commodities like oil fell, while gold, copper, and aluminum rose [15][16] - The domestic equity market showed a daily average trading volume of 1.6571 trillion yuan, with 26 out of 31 sectors rising, led by non-ferrous metals, defense, and computers [23] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with 151,000 new jobs added, although below expectations, and highlights the potential impact of inflation data on market sentiment [14][15] Group 3 - The report tracks the energy sector, noting that WTI crude oil prices fell to a near one-year low of $66.36 per barrel, with U.S. crude production at 13.51 million barrels per day, up 310,000 barrels year-on-year [33][34] - Gold prices increased to $2,909 per ounce, driven by strong safe-haven demand, although short-term pressures may arise from U.S. Treasury yields [51][52] - The report indicates that the domestic market for refined oil is experiencing fluctuations, with independent refineries in Shandong restarting operations due to falling fuel oil prices [34][36]