Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Market Perform" rating to the semiconductor industry, indicating a neutral outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with a slight recovery in demand expected in November. Prices for memory modules and chips have decreased by approximately 10% [3][5]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies such as TSMC and Samsung, which have shown significant improvements in their earnings amidst a weak recovery in demand [7]. - The report suggests that investors should focus on leading companies in niche markets, particularly those benefiting from the recovery in AIOT and consumer electronics [8]. Summary by Sections Monthly Market Review - In October, the semiconductor sector saw a price increase of 19.36%, outperforming the broader market, which declined by 3.16% [4][18]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 73.18% and a PB ratio of 43.73%, reflecting high historical levels [4][28]. Supply and Demand Data Tracking - The semiconductor supply remains relatively abundant, with a slight increase in wafer fab utilization rates. However, demand is still subdued, leading to a continued decline in prices [5][6]. - Global semiconductor sales showed a year-on-year increase of 20.62% in August, indicating a gradual recovery in the market [5]. Downstream Demand Tracking and Forecast - The report notes a recovery in demand for smartphones, TWS earbuds, and AI servers, with global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increasing by 4.01% year-on-year [6]. - The report anticipates that the demand for AI servers will continue to grow at a rate exceeding 25% annually over the next three years, driven by increased investments in AI [6]. Fund Holdings Distribution - Public funds have a significant allocation in the semiconductor sector, with a total market value of 399.42 billion yuan, representing about 60% of the electronic sector's investments [4][30].

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年11月07日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241107 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺S0630521110001 zjk@email.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.青岛啤酒（600600）：整装待发，静待需求改善——公司简评报告 ➢ 2.荣昌生物（688331）：收入持续快速增长，经营效率提升——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.分化中寻找确定性——资产配置与比较月报（2024年11月） 财经要闻 ➢ 1.特朗普宣布胜选，共和党赢得参议院控制权。 ➢ 2.国家主席习近平：努力实现全年经济社会发展目标。 ➢ 3.十四届全国人大常委会举行第三十三次委员长会议。 ➢ 4.欧元区9月PPI同比降3.4%，预期降3.5%。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | |----------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is currently in a multi-bottom range, indicating significant investment value, and recommends focusing on segments with good growth momentum and potential for performance reversal [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has been under pressure due to multiple factors, but there is an expectation for stabilization and improvement in performance throughout the year [2][3]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with a particular emphasis on innovative drugs and other specific segments that are expected to perform well [2][3]. - The report indicates that the overall revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown slight growth, while profits have seen a minor decline, reflecting a stabilizing trend [6][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Situation - In the first three quarters of 2024, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved total revenue of 18,141.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39%, and a net profit of 1,450.40 billion yuan, down 9.01% year-on-year [2][8]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported revenue of 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.20%, with total profits of 254.39 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.40% [6][14]. Sub-sector Performance - The top five sub-sectors by revenue growth in Q1-Q3 2024 were innovative drugs (+44.82%), medical consumables (+9.60%), raw materials (+8.46%), chain pharmacies (+6.66%), and chemical preparations (+2.86%) [2][19]. - The top five sub-sectors by net profit growth were raw materials (+26.57%), chemical preparations (+15.13%), medical consumables (+12.61%), blood products (+11.37%), and traditional Chinese medicine (-9.03%) [2][19]. - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from rapid product launches and recovery in raw materials, showing strong performance [2][19]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Teva Biopharmaceuticals, Betta Pharmaceuticals, and Kanglong Chemical, among others, focusing on those with good growth prospects and potential for performance reversal [3][19]. Market Trends - As of November 6, 2024, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a decline of 8.78%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 26.06 percentage points [20][22]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 27.83, indicating that valuations are at historical lows [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report rates the mechanical equipment industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The railway passenger volume in China reached 3.68 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 128.8%, indicating strong demand for rail transit equipment [3][13] - The National Railway Group announced a new batch of high-speed train tenders, with 80 sets of intelligent trains to be procured, reflecting ongoing investment in rail infrastructure [3][13] - The push for low-carbon development is driving the iteration of locomotives, with a target for electric locomotives to account for over 70% by 2030 [3][13] - The demand for maintenance of existing trains is expected to rise, with significant tenders for train repairs announced for 2024 [4][14] - In the construction machinery sector, excavator sales exceeded expectations in October 2024, with domestic sales up 21.6% year-on-year [5][15] - The automation equipment sector is focusing on domestic substitution and exploring external growth opportunities, with leading brands enhancing their market share [6][16] Summary by Sections Railway Equipment - The railway passenger volume in China reached 3.68 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% [3][13] - The National Railway Group announced a new batch of high-speed train tenders, with 80 sets of intelligent trains to be procured [3][13] - The low-carbon development initiative aims for electric locomotives to constitute over 70% of the total by 2030 [3][13] - Maintenance demand for existing trains is expected to increase, with significant tenders for repairs in 2024 [4][14] Construction Machinery - Excavator sales in October 2024 reached 8,266 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [5][15] - The domestic market saw a 9.8% increase in excavator sales year-to-date, while exports declined by 7.4% [5][15] Automation Equipment - The automation equipment sector is focusing on domestic substitution and exploring external growth opportunities [6][16] - Leading brands are enhancing their market share through customized solutions and efficient service [6][16] - The market for industrial automation is expected to grow, with significant potential for domestic brands in overseas markets [23]

Group 1: Restaurant Supply Chain Analysis - The restaurant supply chain is essentially food industrialization, with a market size estimated at approximately 2.43 trillion yuan in 2023, indicating significant growth potential [5][6] - The number of companies in the industry with revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan is currently low, suggesting that several companies could emerge as major players in the future [5] - The frozen food segment, particularly in B-end products like frozen rice and hot pot ingredients, is expected to benefit significantly from industry growth [5][6] - The market for small and medium-sized B-end businesses and group meals is vast, with promising development prospects, as these segments are characterized by numerous small enterprises and flexible procurement [6] Group 2: Trump’s Second Term Implications - Trump's re-election is likely to reduce the difficulty of implementing policies, with key focuses on tariffs, immigration, and tax cuts [8][9] - The U.S. economy may maintain resilience due to tax cuts, but inflation and fiscal pressures are anticipated [10] - The potential for increased tariffs could impact external demand for China, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand policies [10][11] Group 3: Company Overview - ZTE Microelectronics - ZTE Microelectronics reported a revenue of 3.367 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, but a significant decline in net profit [12][13] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.14%, down 4.26 percentage points from the previous quarter, primarily due to depreciation and product mix changes [13][14] - The company has significantly increased R&D investment, with expenses reaching 753 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.50%, indicating a focus on product innovation [15][16] Group 4: Export Growth Analysis - In October 2024, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 2.3%, resulting in a trade surplus of 95.719 billion USD [17][18] - The rise in export growth is attributed to the fading impact of typhoons and a lower base effect from the previous year [18][19] - The demand for high-tech and mechanical products has accelerated, with notable growth in aluminum and steel exports [19][20]

Export Data - In October 2024, exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month[2] - Imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to a 0.3% increase previously[2] - The trade surplus reached $95.719 billion, expanding from the previous value[2] Export Trends - The rise in October's export growth was attributed to the fading impact of typhoons and a lower base effect from last year[2] - For the combined September-October period, export growth was 7.4%, slightly below the mid-range level of 5-8 months[2] - Exports to the US, EU, and Japan saw increases of 5.9%, 11.4%, and 13.9% respectively in October[2] Import Insights - October's total import value was $213.34 billion, marking a significant decline compared to previous months[2] - The manufacturing PMI new orders index rose to 50.1%, indicating signs of improvement in domestic demand[2] - The decline in imports was influenced by the National Day holiday and a high base from the previous year[2] Product Performance - Exports of mechanical and high-tech products accelerated, with aluminum and steel showing strong performance at 31.2% and 24.4% growth respectively[2] - Agricultural products and high-tech products rebounded to 10.94% and 9.08% growth, respectively[2] - Imports of aircraft over 2 tons surged by 109.9%, while imports of integrated circuits grew by 10.3%[9]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25bps to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% on November 7, 2024, aligning with market expectations[2] - The removal of key inflation language in the statement suggests uncertainty regarding future inflation trends, despite Powell's reassurance of confidence in achieving a 2% inflation rate[3] - The current economic conditions indicate a soft landing for the U.S. economy, supported by personal consumption and equipment investment, with Q3 GDP showing only a slight decline[3] Group 2: Political and Economic Outlook - The outcome of the upcoming elections is not expected to impact the short-term rate cut path, but uncertainty may arise in 2025 due to potential inflationary policies from the incoming administration[3] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating that any political pressures would have limited immediate effects on monetary policy[4] - Asset prices showed minimal volatility during the meeting, with slight declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while gold and U.S. equities experienced gains[4] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risks include inflation uncertainty and global economic and geopolitical risks, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has completed the iteration of L-PAMiD, and while short-term depreciation impacts performance, the long-term outlook remains positive [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 3.367 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, but a net profit decline of 48.05% [8][10] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 37.14%, down 4.26 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 9.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to depreciation and product mix changes [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.13% [8] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 71 million yuan, down 84.29% year-on-year and 54.63% quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 40.52%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.40 percentage points [8] Production and R&D - The company has significantly increased R&D investment, with expenses reaching 753 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83.50% [11] - The L-PAMiD product has been successfully validated by several brand clients, marking a significant milestone in the domestic supply chain [11] - The company’s 6-inch and 12-inch filter production lines have achieved a high level of self-sufficiency, with products being successfully integrated into various brand clients [12] Future Outlook - The company expects to see improved margins as production scales up and cost efficiencies are realized [9][10] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are adjusted to 4.667 billion yuan, 5.242 billion yuan, and 5.992 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 570 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1.204 billion yuan [10][13]

Group 1: Election Impact - Trump has won 277 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed for victory in the 2024 presidential election[2] - The Republican Party is likely to secure a majority in both the Senate and House, easing policy implementation during Trump's term[3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's policies may maintain U.S. economic resilience but could lead to increased inflation and fiscal pressures[4] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to widen due to reduced tax revenues from tax cuts, despite potential increases in tariff revenues[4] Group 3: China’s Response - China's export share to the U.S. has decreased from 19% in 2018 to 15% in 2023, indicating a need for increased domestic demand policies[4] - The importance of expanding domestic demand in China is expected to rise in response to external demand pressures[4] Group 4: Asset Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets may initially rise due to tax cut expectations but could face volatility as economic resilience wanes[5] - U.S. Treasury yields may remain elevated due to fiscal deficit concerns and inflation expectations[5]

Industry Overview - The catering supply chain is essentially food industrialization, driven by the increasing demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the catering industry, as well as the rising chainization rate The market size of the catering supply chain in 2023 is estimated to be approximately 2 43 trillion yuan, with significant growth potential [1] - The B-end frozen rice and noodle products and hotpot ingredient sectors are more promising The frozen food market in China is mainly divided into rice and noodle products, hotpot ingredients, and prepared dishes Among them, C-end rice and noodle products are in a mature stage, while B-end rice and noodle products and hotpot ingredients are in a growth phase with room for increased concentration [1] - The small and medium-sized B-end and group meal markets have vast potential and are the most promising for development The downstream channels of the catering supply chain can be divided into large B-end, small and medium-sized B-end, group meals, and takeout Among them, the small and medium-sized B-end market is the foundation of the catering industry, with numerous enterprises and significant growth potential [1] Market Dynamics - The catering supply chain market is closely related to the development of the catering industry With the increase in per capita disposable income, urbanization, and the trend of smaller households, the dining-out rate continues to rise, driving the rapid development of the catering industry In 2023, the catering market size reached 5 29 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 8 82% from 2010 to 2023 [6] - The demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the B-end catering sector, along with the convenience demand in the C-end, has opened up space for ingredient standardization The high costs of labor, rent, and raw materials have forced catering companies to optimize their supply chains and promote ingredient standardization [10] - The chainization rate in the catering industry is rising, leading to an increasing demand for standardized ingredients In 2023, the chainization rate in China reached 21%, with significant room for growth compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, where the chainization rate exceeds 55% [12] Supply Chain and Logistics - The improvement of the cold chain logistics industry has expanded the sales radius of semi-finished ingredients With the development of freezing technology and cold chain logistics, the storage time of semi-finished ingredients has been significantly extended, and logistics costs have been reduced From 2019 to 2023, the CAGR of the cold chain logistics market size, refrigerated vehicle ownership, and cold storage capacity reached 11 12%, 19 10%, and 10 85%, respectively [16] Frozen Food Market - The frozen food market benefits from the trend of ingredient standardization, with significant growth potential In 2023, the frozen food market size reached 183 54 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 9 75% from 2019 to 2023 Rice and noodle products account for the largest share at 53%, followed by hotpot ingredients at 33% [19] - The hotpot ingredient sector has significant room for concentration improvement and maintains a high-end trend In 2023, the hotpot ingredient market size reached 65 7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12 20% The concentration of the hotpot ingredient market is relatively low, with a CR3 of 16% in 2021 [26] - The prepared dish sector is growing rapidly but faces challenges in achieving nationwide popularity due to regional dietary habits and taste differences In 2022, the prepared dish market size reached 419 6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21 31% [27] Company Analysis - Anjoy Food is a leading company in the frozen food industry, with a strong presence in hotpot ingredients and rice and noodle products From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR reached 27 79% and 41 09%, respectively In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 14 048 billion yuan, with hotpot ingredients and prepared dishes accounting for 18 12% and 27 96% of the revenue, respectively [41] - Qianwei Central Kitchen focuses on the B-end frozen rice and noodle market, with a strong product development capability From 2019 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit CAGR reached 20 92% and 16 00%, respectively In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1 901 billion yuan, with fried, baked, and steamed products accounting for 45 78%, 18 69%, and 19 60% of the revenue, respectively [47] Investment Recommendations - The rapid increase in the chainization rate of the catering industry brings significant growth potential to the catering supply chain The midstream food manufacturing companies benefit from the trend of catering industrialization, with increasing concentration as the main theme in the future Companies with strong competitiveness in specific segments are recommended for investment [55]