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23年成功收官,24年继往开来

安信国际证券· 2024-03-19 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a target price of 48 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 37.95 HKD [3][9]. Core Insights - In 2023, China Resources Beer reported a revenue of 38.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 5.1 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The sales volume reached 11.15 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with premium and above products showing significant growth, particularly Heineken, which saw a growth rate exceeding 60% [1]. - The company has successfully entered the liquor market through the acquisition of a 55.2% stake in Jinsha Liquor, generating 2.06 billion RMB in revenue from this segment in 2023 [1]. - A special dividend of 0.3 RMB per share was declared, with an expected total dividend payout of 0.936 RMB per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of 59% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - 2023 revenue: 38.9 billion RMB, 10% growth - 2023 net profit: 5.1 billion RMB, 18% growth - Gross margin: 41.4%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year - Net margin: 13.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2024 EPS: 1.91 HKD - 2025 EPS: 2.10 HKD - 2026 EPS: 2.23 HKD [1][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is projected at 19x for 2024, while China Resources Beer is assigned a P/E of 25x, leading to a target price of 48 HKD [9][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end products, with plans to enhance its presence in the premium market segment, particularly targeting products priced above 10 RMB [1]. - The integration of the liquor business is expected to provide additional growth opportunities, with a focus on regions with high penetration rates for sauce liquor [1]. Shareholder Structure - Major shareholders include China Resources Group with 31.1% and Heineken Group with 20.8% [5]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a relative return of 17.47% over the past month and 12.47% over the past three months, although it has declined by 23.45% over the past year [7].
品质+成本,颗粒硅独具竞争优势
安信国际证券· 2024-03-19 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not specify an investment rating for the company [3] Core Insights - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported 2023 earnings that were in line with market expectations, with a revenue decrease of 6% year-on-year to 33.7 billion RMB and a net profit decline of 85% to 2.5 billion RMB, primarily due to an unfavorable industry cycle and a significant impairment loss of 5 billion RMB from exiting Siemens method rod silicon production [1][2] - The company is focusing on granular silicon production, which has a competitive advantage due to lower energy consumption and costs, with expectations to reach a domestic granular silicon capacity of 500,000 tons by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The report anticipates a global photovoltaic installation of 430 GW in 2024, requiring 1.45 million tons of polysilicon, with granular silicon demand estimated at 400,000 tons, aligning with GCL-Poly's production capacity [1][2] - The company is investing in new technologies such as perovskite and CCz, with significant breakthroughs in production efficiency and quality, particularly in meeting the rising demand for N-type materials [2][11] - GCL-Poly has announced a shareholder return plan, committing at least 680 million RMB for share buybacks in 2024, reflecting a focus on enhancing shareholder value [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, GCL-Poly's revenue decreased by 6% to 33.7 billion RMB, and net profit fell by 85% to 2.5 billion RMB due to industry challenges and a 5 billion RMB impairment loss from exiting rod silicon production [1][2] Production Capacity and Technology - The company has established four domestic granular silicon production bases with a total annual capacity of 420,000 tons, aiming for 500,000 tons by the end of 2024 [2][9] - GCL-Poly is advancing in perovskite and CCz technologies, achieving record conversion efficiencies in solar components [2][11] Market Outlook - The report projects a significant demand for granular silicon, with expectations of 400,000 tons needed in 2024, aligning with GCL-Poly's production capabilities [1][2] - The shift towards N-type solar cells is expected to increase the demand for high-quality granular silicon, with GCL-Poly's products meeting over 80% of N-type material requirements by Q1 2024 [11][12] Shareholder Returns - GCL-Poly plans to utilize at least 680 million RMB for share buybacks in 2024, with a commitment to return at least 30% of net profits to shareholders through buybacks or dividends over the next three years [2]
净利润同比大幅增长,战略聚焦生产力及全球化
安信国际证券· 2024-03-17 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not specify an investment rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3 times to 370 million yuan, and an adjusted net profit margin improvement of 8 percentage points to 13.7% [2][3] - Total revenue for 2023 reached 2.7 billion yuan, slightly below market expectations by 3%, with a year-on-year increase of 29% [3] - The overall number of paying users increased by 63% year-on-year to 9.11 million, with a payment rate of 3.7% [4] - The company is focusing on productivity and globalization strategies, enhancing AI-driven product capabilities and expanding its overseas user base [4] Revenue and Profitability - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 2.7 billion yuan, with the imaging and design products segment growing by 53% year-on-year [3] - Adjusted net profit for the year was 370 million yuan, compared to 110 million yuan in 2022, reflecting a 2.3 times increase [3] - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 13.7%, benefiting from steady revenue growth and enhanced operational efficiency [3][13] User Growth and Monetization - The company's overall monthly active users (MAU) reached 250 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [3] - The productivity segment's MAU grew by 74% year-on-year to 17.66 million, while the lifestyle segment's MAU slightly decreased by 0.5% [3] - The payment rate for the productivity segment is higher than that of the lifestyle segment, indicating strong monetization potential [4] Strategic Focus - The company aims to enhance its AI capabilities and develop AI-native workflow products, with plans to acquire resources to strengthen its model training data [4] - Approximately 34% of paying users are from overseas, contributing 51% of revenue from imaging and design products, indicating a strong global presence [4] - The company plans to continue shareholder returns, with a proposed annual dividend of 160 million HKD [4]
业绩大幅增长
安信国际证券· 2024-03-17 16:00
公司动态 2024 年 3 月 15 日 中烟香港(6055.HK) 证券研究报告 食品饮料 业绩大幅增长 中烟香港(6055.HK)是中烟集团旗下唯一上市平台,主营烟叶进出口、卷烟出口、 投资评级: Xx 未评级 新型烟草出口业务。公司23年业绩突破历史新高,收入118亿港元,同比增长42%, 目标价格: 未评级 净利润6.9亿港元,同比增长49%,增长强劲。我们认为在全球烟叶供小于求的背 景下,公司仍将保持量价齐增的趋势,预期未来仍有稳健的增长。此外公司也计划 现价(2024-3-14): 10.68港元 逐步提高派息比率,增加股东回报。当前PE-TTM仅为11x,推荐关注。 报告摘要 进口业务增速较高,量价齐升。23年烟叶进口业务为80.8亿港元,同比增长49%, 总市值(百万港元) 7,387.14 进口数量11.7万吨,同比增长27%,进口均价6.89万港元/吨,同比增长16.8%,实 流通市值(百万港元) 7,387.14 现了量价齐升。销量增长一方面受到国内烟叶需求增长的推动,另一方面22年发送 总股本(百万股) 691.68 的货物延迟到23年才到岸确认收入,带来收入的短期波动。并且,由于全球 ...
全年高质量增长,童装及电商持续强劲
安信国际证券· 2024-03-14 16:00
Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 3 月 15 日 公司动态分析 361 度(1361.HK) 证券研究报告 运动鞋服 全年高质量增长,童装及电商持续强劲 投资评级: Xx 买入 xx 事件:361度公布2023年全年业绩表现,收入同比增长21.0%,归母净利润同比增 长28.7%。今年恢复派息,派息比例为40.2%。整体表现好于市场预期且符合我们此 目标价格: 6.9 港元 前预期。综合考虑,我们预测2024/2025/2026年EPS为0.54/0.62/0.70元,目标 价6.9港元,维持“买入”评级。 现价(2024-3-14): 4.46港元 报告摘要 运动消费品复苏带动销售增长,电商及童装表现强劲 随着消费市场的持续回暖,体 总市值(百万港元) 9,221.86 育产业景气度继续高涨,带动运动消费品的销售提升。2023 全年,361 度录得收入 流通市值(百万港元) 9,221.86 84.23亿元,同比增长21.0%,其中童装收入为19.58亿元,同比增长35.7%,占收 总股本(百万股) 2,067.68 入比提升至23.2%;电商收入为23.26亿元,同比增长38.0%,占收入比提 ...
23年业绩符合预期,化肥业务坚如磐石
安信国际证券· 2024-03-11 16:00
Table_BaseInfo Table_Title 公司动态分析 2024 年 03 月 11 日 中国心连心化肥(1866.HK) 证券研究报告 化肥行业 年业绩符合预期,化肥业务坚如磐石 23 投资评级: 买入 2023年中国心连心化肥归母净利润11.9亿,同比下降11%,符合预期。净利润下降主 要因为化工产品价格下降,利润率低,拖累整体业绩表现,化肥业务是业绩的主驱动力, 目标价格: 6.5 港元 在化肥产品价格下跌的大背景下,仍有稳定的利润率和较高的利润贡献。我们看好未来 心连心高效肥的发展,不断优化销量结构,提升价格与利润率。预计2024-2026公司归 现价 (2024-03-08): 3.4港元 母净利润为13.0亿、17.1亿和22.6亿,同比增长10%、31%和32%。维持目标价6.5 港元,对应24年5.5倍预测市盈率,距离现价有91%上涨空间,买入评级。 总市值(百万港元) 4,180.36 流通市值(百万港元) 4,180.36 报告摘要 总股本(百万股) 1,218.76 流通股本(百万股) 1,218.76 23年归母净利润下降11%,符合预期。2023年中国心连心化肥的收入达到 ...
业绩持续稳健增长
安信国际证券· 2024-03-11 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positive, with a target price set at 0.67 HKD, indicating potential for growth and investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a record high in equity installed capacity, exceeding 4 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 12.9% in equity installed capacity [1]. - The company’s equity power generation volume increased by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching 78.2 billion kWh, which is the leading growth rate in the renewable energy sector [1]. - The company actively participates in green certificate and green electricity trading, resulting in a significant increase in revenue and profit [1]. - The management emphasizes shareholder returns, with a dividend yield exceeding 5% and ongoing share buyback plans [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company’s equity installed capacity reached 4.05 GW, with wind power projects accounting for 85.6% and solar projects for 14.4% [1]. - The company’s equity power generation volume for 2023 was 78.2 billion kWh, with wind power generation increasing by 18.6% and solar power generation by 7.3% [1]. Market Engagement - The company issued 3.447 million green certificates in 2023, a 24% increase year-on-year, and green certificate sales revenue grew by 78% to 45.46 million RMB [1]. - The trading volume of green electricity increased by 117% year-on-year, amounting to 639 million kWh, contributing an additional 30.75 million RMB to revenue [1]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.035 HKD per share for 2023, with a total dividend payout of 284 million HKD, resulting in a payout ratio exceeding 25% and a dividend yield of 5.2% [1]. - The company repurchased 510 million shares in 2023, amounting to approximately 330 million HKD, which is about 6% of the total shares outstanding [1]. Valuation - The company’s market capitalization is 5.44 billion HKD, with a forecasted net profit of 998 million RMB for 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 4.9, which is considered low compared to industry standards [1].
业绩增长亮眼,增长预期稳健
安信国际证券· 2024-03-10 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Amer Sports is "Buy" with an expected investment return of over 15% in the next 6 months [23]. Core Insights - Amer Sports reported a strong revenue growth of 23% year-on-year to $4.368 billion in 2023, driven by the rapid expansion of its core brands: Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson [2][19]. - The company anticipates a stable growth outlook for 2024, with revenue expected to grow in the mid-teens, supported by ongoing expansion in the Greater China region and DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channels [22][40]. Revenue Performance and Breakdown - In Q4 2023, Amer Sports achieved revenue of $1.315 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from the Greater China region, which saw a 45% growth to $246 million [19][20]. - For the full year 2023, revenue from the Greater China region grew by 61% to $841 million, while the Asia-Pacific region grew by 40% to $350 million [20][24]. - The DTC business experienced a 49% increase in revenue to $1.559 billion, with e-commerce and physical retail growing by 40% and 58%, respectively [26][27]. Performance Guidance - For Q1 2024, revenue is expected to grow by 6-8%, with professional sports category growth projected to exceed 30% [10][22]. - The adjusted gross margin is anticipated to be 53.5%, while the adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be between 9.0% and 10.0% [10][22]. Brand and Product Category Performance - The company operates across three main product categories: professional sports, outdoor sports, and ball sports, with respective revenue contributions of 36.5%, 38.2%, and 25.3% in 2023 [21][33]. - The professional sports category showed the highest growth, with Q4 and full-year revenue increasing by 26% and 45%, respectively [21][33].
4季度利润逊於预期,关注闲夜量边际变化
安信国际证券· 2024-03-06 16:00
图 11: Booking 股价表现 35 资料来源:彭博,安信国际 (截至 2024 年 3 月 1 日收盘) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2018/1/2 2019/1/2 2020/1/2 2021/1/2 2022/1/2 2023/1/2 2024/1/2 美 元 Booking股价表现 图 12: Booking 前瞻市盈率表现 35 资料来源:彭博,安信国际 (截至 2024 年 3 月 1 日收盘) 0 5 10 15 20 25 2018/1/2 2019/1/2 2020/1/2 2021/1/2 2022/1/2 2023/1/2 2024/1/2 倍 Booking Forward市盈率 股价及估值表现 本报告版权属于安信国际证券(香港)有限公司。 各项声明请参见报告尾页。 5 业绩点评/Booking Holdings (BKNG.US) 客户服务热线 香港:2213 1888 国内:40086 95517 规范性披露 ⚫ 本研究报告的分析员或其有联系者(参照证监会持牌人守则中的定义)并未担任此报告提到的 ...
4季度利润逊于预期,关注间夜量边际变化
安信国际证券· 2024-03-04 16:00
2024 年 03 月 04 日 xxxx 在线旅行 目标价格: 未有 总市值(百万美元) 119,589 流通市值(百万美元) 119,161 总股本(百万股) 34.2 流通股本(百万股) 34.0 12 个月低/高(美元) 3384.1/3918 平均成交(百万美元) 994.24 % 一个月 三个月 十二个月 相对收益 -5.33 -0.76 6.58 绝对收益 -1.73 11.65 33.56 数据来源:公司资料,彭博,万得 Booking 4Q23 收入符合预期,经调整净利润弱于市场预期 13%。公司指引 2024 年收入同比增 7%,略逊于市场预期(+10%),业绩发布至今股价跌 10%。公司 战略转型批发模式,其 GMV/收入占比提升至 58%/52%,利好提升供应链把控。 关注间夜量增速、批发模式转型、一站式 OTA 平台建设、及反垄断调查进度。 收入符合预期,经调整净利润弱于市场预期:总收入 48 亿美元,同比增长 18%, 较 2019 年同期增 43%,符合彭博一致预期;净利润 2.2 亿美元,对比去年同期 为 12 亿美元,主要因西班牙反垄断处罚决议草案(5.3 亿美元)及荷兰监管 ...