Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态分析 安踏体育（2020.HK） 证券研究报告 运动鞋服 波动市场下实现高质量增长，多品牌战略成效显著 投资评级： xx 买入 xx 事件：安踏体育公布2023年度财务表现，收入同比增长16.2%，股东应占溢利（含 JV 贡献）同比增长 34.9%，整体业绩表现超预期。我们预测 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 目标价格： 120 港元 4.26/4.88/5.46元，给予2024年26倍PE，目标价120港元，维持“买入”评级。 现价(2024-3-28)： 83.2港元 报告摘要 全年高质量增长，Amer 成功上市带来一次性收益。2023 年，安踏集团录得收入 623.56 亿元，同比增长 16.2%。其中，安踏主品牌收入增长 9.3%至 303.06 亿元， 总市值(百万港元) 235,674.28 250,467.00 主要是由于 DTC 转型卓有成效；Fila 收入增长 16.6%至 251.03 亿元，主要由电商 流通市值(百万港元) 235,674.28 250,467.00 业务的增长带动；其他品牌收入大幅增长 57.7%至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (6186.HK) is "Buy" with a target price of 4.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 33% from the current price of 3.68 HKD [3][8]. Core Insights - The worst period for the industry is expected to be over, with a projected recovery in birth rates in 2024, which may positively impact the company's performance [1]. - In 2023, the company's revenue was 19.5 billion RMB, a decline of 8.3% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and a decrease in birth rates [1][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was 3.29 billion RMB, down 33% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 16.8% [1][14]. - The company is focusing on digital sales strategies and inventory management to navigate the challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023: 19.5 billion RMB, down 8.3% YoY [1][14]. - Net profit for 2023: 3.29 billion RMB, down 33% YoY [1][14]. - Gross margin for 2023: 64.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points YoY [1][14]. - Sales expense ratio: 34.3%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points YoY [1][14]. - Management expense ratio: 9%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points YoY [1][14]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2023: 19.6 billion RMB, with a debt ratio of 27% [1][14]. Earnings Forecast - Projected net profit for 2024: 3.55 billion RMB, with an EPS of 0.43 HKD [1][14]. - Projected net profit for 2025: 3.71 billion RMB, with an EPS of 0.45 HKD [1][14]. - Projected net profit for 2026: 3.89 billion RMB, with an EPS of 0.47 HKD [1][14]. Valuation Analysis - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in the dairy sector is estimated at 10x, leading to a target price of 4.9 HKD based on a combination of comparable company and DCF valuation methods [8][10].

2024 年 4 月 2 日 公司动态 海底捞（6862.HK） 证券研究报告 食品饮料 表现远超行业，重新开启扩张 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 海底捞2023年收入414亿/+33%，净利润44.9亿/+227%，业绩表现独领风骚。截止 12月底，门店数量1374家，全年新开门店9家。我们预期24/25/26年净利润分别 目标价格： 24.2 元 为46.3/51.6/56.2亿人民币，对应EPS为0.91/1.02/1.11港元。维持“买入”评 现价(2024-3-28)： 17.66港元 级，目标价为24.2港元，较当前股价有37%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 下半年翻台率显著持续修复，表现远超同行。23 年全年门店整体翻台率为 3.8 次/ 总市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 天，较上半年的3.3次有进一步的提升，表明公司下半年翻台水平更高。24年前两 流通市值(百万港元) 98,436.84 个月翻台率环比持续增长，同比增长 30%。春节期间翻台率超过 5 次。公司灵活应 总股本(百万股) 5,574.00 对热点，针对演唱会准备引流活动，表演“科目三”，在抖音平台进行沉浸式直播 流通股本(百万股) ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 25.5, which corresponds to a projected price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.7 times for 2024 [1][3][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Youbao Online, established in 2011, has become the largest unmanned retail operator in China, leveraging strong digital and supply chain capabilities. The company aims to achieve breakeven in 2024 through rapid expansion via a franchise model [1][2][26]. - In 2023, Youbao Online reported a revenue of HKD 2.67 billion, a 6% year-on-year increase, while the adjusted net loss narrowed by 22% to HKD 220 million. The company is expected to continue its recovery post-pandemic [2][13][26]. - The report emphasizes the significant growth potential in the unmanned retail sector, with the market penetration of vending machines projected to rise from 8.8% in 2022 to 15.6% by 2027, and the market size expected to grow from HKD 28.9 billion to HKD 73.9 billion during the same period [20][21][26]. Company Overview - Youbao Online operates approximately 60,000 smart retail terminals, including vending machines and smart coffee machines, across 160 cities and 28 provinces in China. The company has established a broad sales network in key consumer locations [1][2][8]. - The company’s core business is unmanned retail, which accounted for 78% of its revenue in 2023. The franchise model is a key part of its long-term growth strategy [15][16]. Financial Performance - The financial outlook for Youbao Online shows a projected revenue increase to HKD 3.71 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39%. The company is expected to reach breakeven in 2024 and achieve a net profit of HKD 100 million in 2025 [2][25][28]. - The report notes that the gross margin for the company has remained above 40%, with a slight decrease to 41% in 2023. The net profit margin is expected to improve significantly in the coming years [14][29]. Industry Overview - The unmanned retail industry in China is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth. The report indicates that the industry is characterized by low penetration rates and a fragmented market with many participants [19][20][26]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.7% for the vending machine retail market from 2022 to 2027, driven by increasing disposable income and consumer demand for convenience [20][21]. Competitive Advantages - Youbao Online's competitive edge lies in its strong operational capabilities, extensive nationwide network, and technological advancements in data analysis and automation [23][24]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major consumer goods brands, enhancing its bargaining power and distribution capabilities [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 5.5 HKD, indicating an expected upside of 84% from the current price of 2.99 HKD as of March 21, 2024 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46 billion RMB in 2023, representing a growth of 6.8%, but net profit decreased by 53% to 860 million RMB. The gross margin was 7.2%, down by 2.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.1%, down by 2.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The coking industry is currently in a downturn, with coking prices having peaked at the end of 2023 and subsequently declining significantly in 2024. Despite this, the company's competitive position is strengthening [1][5]. - The chemical segment performed well, with revenue increasing by 21% to 18.6 billion RMB, primarily due to the commissioning of a caprolactam production line and the consolidation of the chemical business from Xuyang Zhongran [1][5]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia contributing to an increase in coking output [1][5]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 13.4 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 4.42 billion shares [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.26, 0.36, and 0.51 HKD respectively [1][6]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 49.64 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 960 million RMB, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [6][14]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The target price derived from these methods is 5.5 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22x, reflecting the long-term valuation despite current industry challenges [8][11]. - The DCF analysis estimates the company's market value at approximately 25.4 billion HKD, considering a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a long-term growth rate of 2% [11][8].

2024 年 3 月 21 日 公司动态 思摩尔（6969.HK） 证券研究报告 电子烟 最坏时刻已经过去 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 思摩尔2023年收入111.7亿，同比下降8%，净利润16.5亿，同比下降34.5%。毛利率38.8%， 同比下降4.5pct，净利率14.7%，同比下降5.9pct。随着中美两国政策落地，形势明朗，欧 目标价格： 8.1 港元 洲业务和APV业务引领增长，我们认为公司最坏的时刻已经过去，未来有望保持平稳增长。 结合公司短期的业绩下滑，我们下调24/25/26年净利润分别至19.6/20.5/21.1亿元，对应 现价(2024-3-20)： 6.87港元 EPS分别为0.35/0.37/0.38港元。维持“买入”评级，下调目标价至8.1港元，较当前股价 有17%上涨空间。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 42,165.99 欧洲及其他市场保持增长，一次性产品是主要增长动力。23年来自欧洲及其他市场的收入达 流通市值(百万港元) 42,165.99 到50.7亿，同比增长8.9%。公司在上半年推出了升级feelm max陶瓷雾化芯平台，并实现 总股本(百万股) 6,137.70 ...

Table_BaseInfo Table_Title 公司动态分析 2024 年 03 月 21 日 吉利汽车（175.HK） 证券研究报告 汽车行业 业绩超预期，极氪订单火爆 投资评级： 买入 2024年吉利处在转型升级的高速发展期，新能源销量占比持续提升，车型不断丰富， 盈利能力持续改善。我们维持目标价12港元，对应24年12.9倍预测市盈率，距离现 目标价格： 12 港元 价有36%上涨空间，买入评级。 现价 (2024-03-20)： 8.8港元 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元) 89,060.93 收入增长21%，创历史新高。2023年吉利汽车营收1792亿元，同比增长21%， 流通市值(百万港元) 89,060.93 归母净利润53.1亿元，同比增长1%；毛利率15.3%，同比提升1.2个百分点，业 总股本(百万股) 10,063.38 绩超预期。23年累计销量168.7万辆，其中新能源48.7万辆。24年销量目标为190 流通股本(百万股) 10,063.38 万辆，同比增长13%。 12个月低/高(港元) 7.2/9.2 多款新车上市，新款极氪001销售火爆。24年吉利品牌、极氪品牌、领克品牌各将 ...

Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 3 月 21 日 公司动态分析 小米集团（1810.HK） 证券研究报告 TMT消费电子 核心业务超预期，后续重点关注 SU7 发布 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 事件：2023财年小米集团总收入同比微降3.2%至2,710亿元，集团整体毛利 目标价格： 18.5 港元 率及各业务板块毛利率均创历史新高，经调整净利润同比增长126.3%至193 亿元，利润表现大超市场预期，Q4传统核心业务表现亮眼。后续重点需关注 现价(2024-3-21)： 14.5港元 3月28日创新业务汽车SU7发布价格和后续销售情况。 报告摘要 总市值(百万港元） 361,752 Q4营收创7季度以来新高，智能手机业务表现亮眼 23Q4小米集团营收创7个季 流通市值(百万港元） 361,752 度以来新高，同比增长10.9%达732亿元，经调整净利润同比大增236.1%至49亿 总股本(百万） 24,948 元。其中，Q4智能手机业务表现亮眼，营收同比增长20.6%至442亿元，智能手 流通股本(百万） 24,948 机出货量同比增长23.9%至4,050万台，显著超过全球市场增速；IoT与 ...

Table_Title Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 03 月 21 日 公司动态分析 同程旅行（0780.HK） 证券研究报告 4 季度业绩超预期，关注度假业务增量及用户价值释放 xxxx 在线旅行 同程旅行4季度收入/经调整净利润超市场预期11%/2%，4季度国内酒店间夜量/机 投资评级： xx 买入 票预订量较4Q19增70%/16%，APU创新高至2.35亿人。收购同程旅业加码度假业 xx 务，我们看好公司业绩稳健增长前景、度假业务增量贡献、用户价值释放，给予18 倍2024年市盈率，上调目标价至23.3港元，维持“买入”评级。 目标价格： 23.3 港元 报告摘要 现价 (2024-03-20)： 19.48港元 4 季度业绩超预期：总收入同比/较 4Q19 增 110%/61%至 31.4 亿元，超出市场预期 11%，主要因并表同程旅业（自2023年12月起）使得其他收入超预期。交通票务/ 住宿预订收入同比增95%/73%，交通票务仍贡献最大增量。经调整净利润4.8亿元， 总市值(百万港元) 44,045 略高于市场预期2%，净利润率15.3%，较3季度（18.8%）环比回落，主要因 ...

Table_BaseInfo 2024 年 3 月 20 日 公司动态分析 特步国际（1368.HK） 证券研究报告 运动鞋服 全年业绩再创新高，索康尼快速增长实现盈利 投资评级： Xx 买入 xx 事件：特步国际2023年全年收入同比增长10.9%，创历史新高，归母净利润同比增 长 11.8%。整体业绩表现符合我们此前预期。公司宣派末期股息每股 8 港仙，全年 目标价格： 6.0 港元 派息比例为 50%。综合考虑，我们预测 2024/2025/2026 年 EPS 为 0.45/0.53/0.60 元，给予目标价6港元，维持“买入”评级。 现价(2024-3-19)： 4.95港元 报告摘要 全年业绩再创新高，业务展现强劲韧性 2023年特步集团录得收入143.46亿元，同 总市值(百万港元) 13,075.21 26,987.07 比增长 10.9%，再创历史新高。拆分来看，大众运动（特步主品牌）收入同比增长 流通市值(百万港元) 13,075.21 26,987.07 7.4%至119.47亿元；专业运动（索康尼和迈乐）收入同比显著增长98.9%至7.96亿 总股本(百万股) 2,641.46 2,6 ...