2024 年 9 月 2 日 安踏体育（2020.HK） 业绩超预期达成，大额回购彰显信心 事件：安踏体育公布 24H1 业绩，收入同增 13.8%至 337 亿元，股东应占溢利 （不包括 JV 影响）同增 17.0%至 61.6 亿元，股东应占溢利（包括 JV 影响）同 增 62.6%至 77.2 亿元。综合考虑，我们预测 2024-2026 年 EPS 为 4.35/4.97 /5.53 元，给予 2024 年 25 倍 PE，目标价 118 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 业绩表现超预期，回购+高派息彰显管理层信心 上半年消费环境充满挑战，公 司旗下多品牌仍保持强劲的竞争力，实现高质量增长。24H1 公司收入同比增长 13.8%至337亿元，剔除JV影响的股东应占溢利为61.6亿元，同比增长17.0%， 包含 JV 影响的股东应占溢利为 77.2 亿元（其中包含 Amer 成功上市带来一笔一 次性非现金利得约 16 亿），同比增长 62.6%，整体表现好于市场预期。管理层 宣布回购计划，未来 18 月内拟回购不超过 100 亿港元，同时宣布派发中期股息 118 港仙/股，派息率 50.1%，充分体现 ...

股价及恒指相对走势 成交额 (百万港元) 2024 年 9 月 2 日 澳优（1717.HK） 羊奶粉增长，业绩拐点渐近 澳优 24 年上半年收入 36.8 亿/+4.8%，净利润 1.5 亿/-15.3%。目前库存出清后，我 们认为最坏时期可能已经过去，出生人口也有望回升。我们预期 24/25/26 年净利润 为 2.7/3.1/3.2 亿元，对应每 EPS 收益为 0.16/0.19/0.19 港元。上调至"买入"评 级，维持目标价 2.7 港元，较当前股价有 44%的涨幅。 报告摘要 羊奶粉上半年实现同比和环比的增长，表现稳健。24 年上半年羊奶粉收入 18.1 亿， 同比增长 20.2%，环比 23H2 增长 2%。羊奶粉表现稳健，展现了优势品牌的竞争优 势。其中国内羊奶粉收入 15.1 亿，同比增长 15.7%，经过渠道的整顿重组，国内价 盘企稳回升。海外羊奶粉收入 2.9 亿，同比增长 50%，主要是因为 24 年 1 月佳贝艾 特一段奶粉正式登陆美国和加拿大市场，此外沙特和独联体市场也都实现了增长。 此外，今年 7 月公司完成对荷兰羊乳酪公司 Amalthea 集团剩下 50%股份的收购协议 签 ...

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Netflix with a **Buy** rating and a target price of **$808**, representing a **15% upside** from the current price of $701.35 [1][3] - The valuation is based on a 10-year DCF model and cross-verified with relative valuation methods, estimating Netflix's equity value at **$346.6 billion** (net debt of $7.3 billion deducted) [2] Core Investment Thesis - Netflix is the **global leader in video streaming**, with a **2.78 billion** subscriber base as of 2Q24, significantly ahead of competitors like Disney+ (1.5 billion) and Amazon Prime Video (1.2 billion) [1][7] - The company is expected to achieve a **12.9% CAGR in total revenue** from 2024 to 2027, driven by **8.7% CAGR in streaming revenue** and **9% advertising revenue contribution by 2026** [1][2] - Netflix's **globalization strategy** is a key strength, with **70% of subscribers and 55% of revenue** coming from outside the US & Canada [1][7] Subscriber Growth and Market Penetration - Netflix is projected to add **18.6 million**, **15.8 million**, and **17 million** net subscribers in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching **340 million subscribers by 2027** [1][8] - Key growth drivers include **content investment**, **ad-supported plans**, and **crackdown on password sharing**, with **EMEA and APAC regions** expected to contribute the most to subscriber growth [1][8] - The company has a **5 billion addressable market** of pay-TV households globally, with significant potential in markets like **France, Spain, Japan, South Korea, and India** [1][8] Content Strategy and Competitive Advantage - Netflix's **original content** accounts for **60%+ of its content library**, with a **high ROI** as the monthly content amortization cost per subscriber is **40%-50% of ARM** [1][7] - The company has won **184 Emmy Awards**, **29 Golden Globes**, and **22 Oscars**, showcasing its **content quality and production efficiency** [8] - Netflix's **recommendation algorithm** and **user insights** are key competitive advantages, with **80%+ of viewing time** driven by personalized recommendations [7][8] Advertising Business Potential - Netflix's **ad-supported plan** is expected to contribute **9.4% and 11% of total revenue** in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with **advertising revenue** projected to reach **$4.7 billion and $6.2 billion** in those years [2][9] - The **ad-supported plan** is gaining traction, with **40 million MAUs** as of May 2024, and is expected to achieve **parity with standard subscription plans** in the long term [9][42] Financial Projections - Netflix's **revenue** is expected to grow from **$38.7 billion in 2024E** to **$55.7 billion in 2027E**, with a **14.8% YoY growth in 2024** [2][3] - **Net profit margin** is projected to increase from **22.4% in 2024E** to **24.5% in 2027E**, with **net income CAGR of 16.4%** from 2024 to 2027 [2][3] - The company's **operating margin** is guided at **26% for 2024**, with expectations of further improvement to **28% by 2027** [2][9] Industry Overview and Competitive Landscape - Netflix is the **leading independent streaming platform** in the US, with **streaming surpassing cable TV in viewership share** in 2022 [7] - The streaming market is divided into **three categories**: **independent platforms (Netflix)**, **tech companies (Amazon, Apple)**, and **media conglomerates (Disney, Paramount)** [7] - The **US digital entertainment market** is projected to reach **$200 billion in 2024**, with **video-on-demand (VOD)** accounting for **$80 billion**, making it the largest segment alongside gaming [60][63] Valuation Metrics - Netflix's **2024E P/E ratio** is **34.7x**, declining to **22.0x by 2027E**, while the **P/S ratio** is expected to drop from **7.8x in 2024E** to **5.4x in 2027E** [3] - The company's **ROE** is projected to increase from **38.9% in 2024E** to **43.4% in 2027E**, reflecting strong profitability and efficient capital allocation [3]

2024 年 9 月 2 日 中国飞鹤（6186.HK） 业绩逆势增长，投资价值显现 中国飞鹤（6186.HK）2024 年上半年收入为 100.9 亿，同比增长 3.7%，净利润为 19.1 亿，同比增长 18%。 24 年出生人口有望恢复，行业最差时期即将过去。公司 维持高分红策略，股息率预期将超过 7%。我们预期 24/25/26 年净利润为 36.5/38.4/39.4 亿元，对应每 EPS 收益为 0.44/0.47/0.48 港元。维持"买入"评级。 我们综合考虑市场情绪及估值，维持目标价 4.9 港元，较当前股价有 17%的上涨空 间。 报告摘要 产品结构持续升级。24 年公司上半年收入为 100.9 亿，同比增长 3.7%，其中超高 端产品收入 71.4 亿，同比增长 19%。星飞帆卓睿系列收入增长 80%，高端产品和 普通产品的收入及占比持续下滑，产品结构向着高端化持续升级。未来公司也将坚 定的定位超高端市场，比如上半年推出了早产儿奶粉蓓舒维、卓然倍高儿童奶粉、 臻稚卓蓓有机奶粉等，下半年预计上线比卓睿更高端的奶粉系列。行业在出生人口 下滑的背景下面临较大压力，尤其行业内新老国标产品过渡，竞 ...

2024 年 9 月 2 日 海底捞（6862.HK） 核心净利润逆势增长 海底捞 2024 年上半年收入 215 亿/+13.8%，净利润 20.3 亿/-10%，核心净利润 28 亿 /+13%，实现逆势增长。截止 6 月底，门店数量 1343 家，上半年净减少 31 家。考虑 当下的环境，我们略微下调 24/25/26 年净利润至 46.3/51.2/54.2 亿元，对应每 EPS 收益为 0.91/1.01/1.07 港元。维持"买入"评级，下调目标价至 20.8 港元，较当 前股价有 58%的上涨空间。 报告摘要 上半年门店略有收缩，经营策略谨慎。截止 6 月份门店总是 1343 家，上半年新开 11 家，关闭 42 家，净减少 31 家，主要是公司关闭了部分经营效果不达预期的门店， 一线和三线的关店率稍高一些。上半年新增一家加盟店，未来公司也将持续探索加 盟业态，采用托管模式以保证海底捞品质的统一输出。 客流显著上升，表现远好于同行。24 年上半年门店整体翻台率为 4.2 次/天，较去 年同期提升 27%，经营成果令人惊叹。目前翻台率已经回到 19 年最巅峰时期的 87%， 而门店数量较当时增加了 ...

到店酒旅将持续受益于线上渗透率提升：2 季度到店酒旅订单量同比增超 60%， 年交易用户（同比增 35%）及年活跃商户数创新高，受益于上线团购产品、打通 神会员体系等。拆分 GTV，休闲娱乐/丽人&医美 GTV 同比增 60%+/50%+，低线 城市 GTV 增速强劲，到店 GTV 增速仍快于酒旅。我们认为，线上渗透率提升是 到店酒旅业务的中长期增长动力，竞争格局趋于稳定，投入更加注重效率，美团 在商户侧的沉淀也利好满足用户侧需求，同时神会员体系利好交叉销售率提升。 王婷 (0755) 8168 2753 wangting9@essence.com.cn 2 图表 8:2Q24 经营活动现金流 250 亿元 规范性披露 投资评级： xx 买入 xx 图表 3: 核心本地商业收入结构 13 14 15 15 14 16 20 20 17 20.4 23.0 21.9 21.1 23.0 10 12 13 13 12 12 16 15 16 18.4 21.0 19.4 20.0 22.1 6 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 10.2 11.4 10.9 10.3 12.3 28.7 33.7 37.2 37.0 ...

2024 年 8 月 27 日 中广核矿业（1164.HK） 海外矿山收益大幅增长，分红税政策变动影响净利 事件：中广核矿业公布 2024 年上半年业绩，公司实现营收 40.73 亿港元，税前 利润 3.24 亿港元，同比上升 37.5%；净利润 1.13 亿港元，同比下降 37.1%。因 上半年国际铀价维持高位及海外矿山成本优势，其投资收益增长亮眼，但因受 到哈国税收政策变动，补交过往三年税费导致所得税大幅上升，影响净利润。但 公司作为行业稀有标的，在国内核电大发展背景及天然铀量价共升推动下，看 好公司未来业绩长期发展，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 上半年税前利润同比增加 37.5%，受海外税收变动影响净利降幅较大 2024 年上 半年公司实现营收 40.73 亿港元，实现税前利润 3.24 亿港元，同比上升 37.5%； 实现净利润 1.13 亿港元，同比下降 37.1%；实现每股基本盈利 1.49 港仙，同比 下降 37%。公司上半年净利润下降由于所得税费用大幅上升，上半年所得税费用 达 2.1 亿港元，同比增加 278%，其原因为哈国协定税率优惠适用口径收紧后， 公司因审慎考虑补缴 2020-23 年 ...

Table_Title 2024 年 08 月 28 日 携程集团（9961.HK/TCOM.US） 国内业务稳健；竞争优势提升利润前景的确定性 携程 2 季度收入符合预期，经调整净利润/EBITDA 超市场预期 39%/9%。中文站 点酒店预订量同比增 20%，国际 OTA 平台收入同比增 70%。我们维持全年收入 预测，上调 11%全年净利润预测。我们看好公司在竞争优势及敏捷运营背景下 确定性较高的利润前景，目标价调整至 500 港元（9961.HK），维持买入评级。 报告摘要 2 季度利润超预期：净收入 128 亿元，同比/环比增 14%/7%，符合我们及市场预 期，其中住宿预订/交通票收入同比增 20%/1%，对净收入的贡献为 40%/38%，旅 游度假收入同比增 42%，恢复至 2019 年同期的 98%，较 1Q24 恢复程度（84%） 大幅提升。经调整净利润 50 亿元，同比增 45%，超我们/市场预期 44%/39%，经 调整净利润率 39%，同比/环比提升 8 个/5 个百分点。剔除联营公司损益（10 亿 元）的经调整 EBITDA 为 44 亿元，超我们/市场预期 10%/9%，同比增 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.7, indicating a potential upside of 50% from the current stock price of HKD 2.49 [3][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.06 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but net profit fell by 71% to RMB 68 million due to a challenging consumer environment [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026, projecting RMB 240 million, RMB 290 million, and RMB 320 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.20, HKD 0.24, and HKD 0.27 [1][14]. - The company is expanding its store count, with a total of 771 stores as of June 2024, an increase of 45 stores from the end of 2023, primarily through its brands Tai Er and Song Hotpot [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Tai Er's revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 2.24 billion, a decrease of 1.6%, with an operating profit margin of 13.8%, down 7.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Song Hotpot's revenue was RMB 430 million, down 5%, with an operating profit margin of 8.6%, a decline of 5.1 percentage points [1]. - The overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and economies of scale from the central kitchen [1][15]. Future Projections - The company plans to open 80 new stores domestically and 13 overseas in 2024, although the pace of expansion has slightly slowed compared to earlier plans [1]. - The report projects a modest revenue growth rate of 1.3% for 2024, followed by 14.1% and 12.8% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [15]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs both comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 3.7 based on a PE multiple of 13x for 2025 projected EPS of HKD 0.24 [8][10]. - The DCF analysis suggests a fair value of HKD 4.3, indicating a significant upside potential [8][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Sinochem Fertilizer (297 HK) with a target price of **HKD 1 4**, representing a **49% upside** from the current price of HKD 0 94 [1][4] Core Views - Sinochem Fertilizer's H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders grew by **4 7% YoY to RMB 1 05 billion**, exceeding expectations [1][2] - The company's revenue in H1 2024 reached **RMB 13 68 billion**, up **4 2% YoY**, driven by improved product mix and operational efficiency [2] - The **Bio+ strategy** is showing significant results, with differentiated product sales reaching **1 32 million tons**, up **14 6% YoY** [2] - The report raises the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to **RMB 1 09/1 18/1 28 billion**, representing a **74%/8%/8% YoY growth** respectively [1][2] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue: **RMB 13 68 billion**, up **4 2% YoY** [2] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: **RMB 1 05 billion**, up **4 7% YoY** [2] - 2024E-2026E revenue growth: **6%/5%/6%** [3][9] - 2024E-2026E net profit growth: **74%/8%/8%** [3][9] Product Sales - Total fertilizer sales in H1 2024: **4 66 million tons**, up **17% YoY** [2] - Compound fertilizer revenue: **RMB 4 69 billion**, up **4% YoY** [2] - Phosphate fertilizer revenue: **RMB 4 18 billion**, up **20% YoY** [2] - Potassium fertilizer revenue: **RMB 2 51 billion**, down **13% YoY** [2] - Special fertilizer revenue: **RMB 440 million**, up **23% YoY** [2] Profitability - 2024E-2026E gross margin: **11%/11%/11%** [3][9] - 2024E-2026E net margin: **5%/5%/5%** [3][9] - 2024E-2026E ROE: **5%/6%/6%** [9] Strategic Initiatives - The **Bio+ strategy** is driving growth, with differentiated product sales reaching **1 32 million tons**, up **14 6% YoY** [2] - Key new products such as **Huanfeng**, **Weidefeng**, and **Shuifeng** have been launched, gaining market recognition for their quality and functionality [2] - The company plans to increase R&D investment in **Bio+ fertilizers** and develop large-scale biological products to further boost performance [2] Valuation and Market Performance - Target price: **HKD 1 4**, based on **8 3x 2024E P/E** [1][4] - Current price (as of 2024-08-26): **HKD 0 94** [4] - Market cap: **HKD 6 6 billion** [5] - 12-month price range: **HKD 0 7-1 1** [5] Financial Forecasts Income Statement - 2024E-2026E revenue: **RMB 23 06/24 31/25 71 billion** [8] - 2024E-2026E net profit: **RMB 1 09/1 18/1 28 billion** [8] Balance Sheet - 2024E-2026E total assets: **RMB 20 51/21 23/22 07 billion** [10] - 2024E-2026E equity: **RMB 10 74/11 42/12 16 billion** [10] Cash Flow - 2024E-2026E operating cash flow: **RMB 1 48/1 71/1 81 billion** [11] - 2024E-2026E net cash change: **RMB 550/444/159 million** [11]