Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - Puma's revenue for FY2025Q4 reached €1.56 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of €1.45 billion, but showed a year-on-year decline of 20.7% at constant exchange rates due to the reduction of unnecessary wholesale business, inventory clearance, and limited DTC promotions [2][4] - The gross margin decreased by 7.5 percentage points to 40.2%, primarily impacted by increased promotional activities in the wholesale channel and inventory clearance [2][4] - The net profit was -€340 million, resulting in a net margin of -21.5% year-on-year [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - By region, at constant exchange rates, EMEA, Americas, and Asia-Pacific revenues for FY2025Q4 declined by 24.3%, 22.2%, and 12.6% respectively, totaling €570 million, €590 million, and €410 million [5] - By channel, wholesale and DTC revenues for FY2025Q4 decreased by 27.7% and 8.0% respectively, amounting to €920 million and €640 million [5] - By product category, footwear, apparel, and equipment revenues for FY2025Q4 fell by 25.4%, 13.7%, and 18.2% respectively, totaling €820 million, €570 million, and €180 million [6] Inventory Situation - As of FY2025Q4, Puma's inventory increased by 2.3% year-on-year to €2.06 billion, with inventory reduction efforts progressing slightly faster than expected [12] Performance Guidance - For FY2026, Puma expects a revenue decline of low to mid-double digits at constant exchange rates, with EBIT losses projected between €50 million and €150 million, and capital expenditures around €200 million [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Geely Automobile reported a total sales volume of 206,000 units in February 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 23.7%. Cumulative sales for January and February 2026 reached 476,000 units, up 1.0% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy. The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, and the scale effect is expected to enhance profitability [2][8]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets. The company is set to accelerate its smart driving capabilities as part of its intelligent strategy [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In February 2026, Geely's sales included 155,000 units from the Geely brand, 27,000 units from Lynk & Co, and 24,000 units from Zeekr, with year-on-year changes of -10.8%, +58.7%, and +70.0% respectively. The export volume was 61,000 units, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 138.3% [8]. - The new energy vehicle sales reached 117,000 units in February, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with a new energy vehicle share of 57.0%, up 9.0 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Strategic Outlook - Geely aims for a total sales target of 3.45 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The breakdown includes 2.75 million units from the Geely brand, 400,000 from Lynk & Co, and 300,000 from Zeekr [8]. - The company is focusing on brand strategy, with efforts in electrification and intelligence, supported by a strong new vehicle cycle that is expected to enhance profitability significantly [2][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After reviewing the two high - intensity geopolitical conflicts in the past five years, the short - to - medium - term performance of convertible bonds may be weak. In the current situation, it is recommended to focus on pro - cyclical sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals. Considering the convergence of the stock index futures basis, convertible bonds may face short - term correction risks. [2][4][7] - The A - share market strengthened during the week, with the small - and medium - cap and pro - cyclical manufacturing sectors outperforming, and the trading volume slightly expanding. [2][4][7] - The convertible bond market oscillated weakly, the medium - cap convertible bonds were relatively strong, and the trading volume converged. The overall valuation was compressed, especially in the high - parity and high - market - value ranges. The implied volatility declined but remained at a high level, and the median market value slightly increased. [2][4][7] - Structurally, cyclical sectors such as steel and non - ferrous metals were relatively good, and some of the top - performing targets showed negative premiums. The primary issuance was stable. In terms of terms, the willingness to downward - revise was weak, while the probability of non - call increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of new bonds and the disturbances of term games. [2][4][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Geopolitical Conflicts and the Convertible Bond Market - In the two high - intensity geopolitical conflicts in the past five years (the Russia - Ukraine conflict in late February 2022 and the escalation of the Palestine - Israel conflict in early October 2023), the short - to - medium - term performance of CSI Convertible Bond Index was weak. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index performed relatively well in the short term after the Russia - Ukraine conflict. [11] - In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the petroleum and petrochemical industry performed well in the short term, while in the Palestine - Israel conflict, the social service industry performed well in the short term. Given the current situation is more similar to the energy - power game during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, attention can be paid to energy and cyclical industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals. [11][12] - From a futures perspective, there may be short - term correction risks. When the annualized yield of the next - month continuous basis of CSI 500 futures approaches zero, the convertible bond market often faces short - term correction pressure. The high correlation between the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI 500 Index (97.9% from the beginning of 2025 to the current Friday) indicates that this futures sentiment indicator can also reflect the sentiment changes of convertible bond market investors. [12] 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - From February 24 to February 28, 2026, the equity market strengthened overall, and the pro - cyclical direction performed well. Among them, metal zinc, metal lead, phosphate chemicals, small - metal concepts, and metal copper in the non - ferrous metal direction were good, while AI corpus, Xiaohongshu concept, Kuaishou concept, short - drama games, and Sora concept (text - to - video) in the AI Internet direction were under pressure. [16] 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Stock Indexes Strengthened, with Medium - and Small - Cap Indexes Performing Strongly - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened overall during the week. The Shenzhen Component Index performed well, while the ChiNext Index was relatively weak. In terms of style, medium - and small - cap indexes were relatively strong, while the science - innovation and large - cap indexes were relatively weak. [16] - In terms of funds, the net outflow of market main funds converged during the week. The average daily trading volume expanded, and the net outflow of main funds slightly decreased. [17] - The cyclical manufacturing sectors in the A - share market were strong during the week. Sectors such as metal materials and mining, environmental protection, national defense and military industry, and chemicals led the gains, while sectors such as social services, insurance, and media Internet were relatively weak. [21] - In terms of trading volume, the electronics, metal materials and mining, and power and new energy equipment sectors were the focus of trading during the week. The trading volume of most sectors rebounded compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume of the public utilities sector increased by more than 62% week - on - week. [22] - The congestion degree of market sectors still differed significantly during the week. The congestion degree of cyclical directions such as petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and steel increased, while that of sectors such as commercial retail, media, and transportation decreased. [24] 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Oscillated Weakly, with the Large - Cap Index Performing Weakly - From February 24 to February 28, 2026, the convertible bond market oscillated slightly weakly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index oscillated weakly, with the large - cap convertible bond index performing relatively weakly and the medium - cap convertible bond index performing relatively strongly. The trading volume converged slightly. [28] - In terms of valuation, when divided by the parity range, the overall valuation of the convertible bond market was compressed, except for a slight increase in the 120 - 130 yuan parity range, and the conversion premium rate in the 140 - yuan - and - above parity range was significantly compressed. When divided by the market value range, the overall valuation was also compressed, except for a slight increase in the 110 - 120 yuan market value range, and the conversion premium rate in the 150 - yuan - and - above market value range was significantly compressed. [32] - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance oscillated weakly during the week, still at a historical high. The median market value of convertible bonds oscillated and slightly increased, remaining higher than the high point in August 2025. [36] - Convertible bonds in cyclical sectors performed relatively well. Sectors such as steel, non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and basic chemicals led the gains. In terms of trading volume, the trading was mainly concentrated in the power equipment, basic chemicals, and electronics sectors, with the combined trading volume of these three sectors accounting for more than 35%. [39] - Most individual convertible bonds weakened during the week. Only 143 convertible bonds had a range increase greater than or equal to 0, accounting for 37.0% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. Among the convertible bonds in the conversion period, the top five in terms of weekly increase were Youcai Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Yitian Convertible Bond, and Huaya Convertible Bond, while the top five in terms of weekly decrease were Fuxin Convertible Bond, Hengshuai Convertible Bond, Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Huicheng Convertible Bond, and Xinfu Convertible Bond. Some of the top - five - increasing individual bonds had negative premiums. [44] 3.4 Convertible Bond Issuance and Term Tracking 3.4.1 Primary - Market Pre - issuance Situation - One convertible bond, Aiwei Convertible Bond, was listed during the week from February 24 to February 28, 2026. [47] - Five listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans in the primary market during the week, with two in the exchange - acceptance stage and three having passed the general meeting of shareholders. [48] - The total disclosed scale of ongoing projects at the exchange - acceptance stage and later was 8.302 billion yuan. There were 5 companies approved by the CSRC with a planned issuance scale of 439 million yuan, 7 companies having passed the listing committee meeting with a planned issuance scale of 697 million yuan, and 44 companies in the exchange - acceptance stage with a planned issuance scale of 6.989 billion yuan. [49][52] 3.4.2 Downward - Revision - Related Announcement Summary - No convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision during the week. Three convertible bonds announced not to downward - revise, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.5. Two convertible bonds proposed downward revision, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 1.6. [53][58] 3.4.3 Redemption - Related Announcement Summary - Two convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemption during the week. Seven convertible bonds announced not to redeem in advance, and four convertible bonds announced early redemption. [59]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市会继续定价避险吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 2 月 28 日美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起军事打击，债市后续如何演绎？我们梳理了 2000 年以来 13 次地缘冲突及中美贸易摩擦下的债市。思考框架：1）是否直接涉及国内？2） 冲突是"一次性冲击"还是长期持续从而对影响债市的指标产生深刻影响？历史经验看，未直 接涉及我国的地缘政治事件，影响集中在短期避险阶段，债市预计回归自身主线。当前经济和 政策变化幅度不大，我们维持 10 年期国债利率震荡的观点，短端看央行，套息策略确定性较 大，长端特别是 30 年期国债需关注财政发力与银行承接力，中期需持续追踪通胀变化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 2026 年 2 月 28 日美国和以色列联合对伊朗发起军事打击，当日，在避险情绪的主导下，10 年 期国债活跃券收益率向下突破 1.8%至 1.79%。为进一步判断此次冲突对债市的后 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the evolution of the public fund industry over the past 30 years, emphasizing the role of regulatory policies in promoting high-quality development through tax incentives and fee reforms [4][15][17] - The bond fund sector has grown significantly since the introduction of the first bond fund in 2002, filling a critical gap in the market for low-risk investment options [7][20][21] - The report notes that the asset allocation behavior of major institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and wealth management firms shows significant differences, with banks primarily favoring bond funds, while insurance companies have a more diversified approach [9][59] Group 2 - The transition to net asset value management initiated by the asset management regulations in 2018 has created a specific development window for amortized cost bond funds, which have seen limited new approvals since then [8][25][28] - The report discusses the structural changes in the bond market, particularly the shift in holdings from policy financial bonds to credit bonds, reflecting the changing needs of institutional investors [10][35] - The analysis of recent market adjustments indicates a trend of funds flowing from short-term and medium-term pure bond funds to mixed secondary bond funds, with a notable shift from interest rate bonds to credit bonds and convertible bonds [10][21][35] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the differentiated fund allocation strategies among banks, with a significant concentration in bond funds, particularly medium to long-term pure bond funds, which account for 87.70% of their total fund holdings [43][44] - Insurance funds exhibit a more diversified allocation, with 58% of their holdings in equity funds and 31% in bond funds, reflecting their operational characteristics and regulatory guidance [59] - The report identifies three distinct categories of customized funds, highlighting their characteristics and the concentration of holdings by single institutions, which can lead to liquidity risks [55][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [8] Core Insights - The computer sector rebounded after a recent pullback, with an overall increase of 1.34%, ranking 20th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region [2][5] - The OpenRouter platform's model invocation volume has surpassed that of the United States for the first time, indicating a significant growth in domestic AI model usage [7][51] - The report highlights the potential for a commercial explosion in large models in 2026, with key shifts from selling computing power to selling tokens, and the emergence of the "Agent" era in AI [7][59] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall market saw a rise of 1.98%, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4162.88 points [5][15] - The computer sector's trading volume accounted for 7.62% of the total market [5][15] Key Developments - Hong Kong plans to submit a digital asset policy bill within the year, aiming to enhance market liquidity and provide more products for professional investors [21][24] - Blue Arrow Aerospace announced plans for a second recovery test of its reusable rocket, Zhuque-3, in the second quarter of this year [27][32] - The release of the "Humanoid Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standard System (2026 Edition)" marks a new phase of standardized development in the humanoid robot industry [38][44] Investment Recommendations - Focus on application and foundational resources, particularly in the context of the explosive growth of domestic AI model invocation [7][51] - Emphasize three main lines of investment: new entry points and commercialization of large models, domestic chips (CPU+GPU) and third-party cloud services, and the restructuring of software through agents [7][59]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of anti-involution regulations, which are expected to enhance the growth certainty of leading companies in the logistics sector. The focus is on improving compliance levels and optimizing algorithms within courier companies to balance interests among headquarters, franchisees, and couriers [2][4] - The report highlights that the adjustment of delivery fees in provinces like Sichuan aims to secure the income levels of frontline workers, while regulatory measures in grain-producing areas like Guangdong and Yiwu help maintain stable prices. The pressure from social security compliance provides cost support for courier prices, limiting the risk of price declines [2][4] - The advancement of e-commerce value-added tax is accelerating the industry's process of eliminating inefficiencies, with low-efficiency practices like fake orders rapidly declining. This environment favors leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to see increases in market share, profitability, and valuation [5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The report indicates that the national postal work meeting in 2026 will focus on comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition, marking a shift from "end correction" to "system reconstruction" in industry regulation [4] - The report notes that the anti-involution regulations are becoming a consensus in the industry, with a strong emphasis on compliance transformation for courier companies [4] Market Dynamics - The report states that the courier business volume growth rate has improved, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% as of March 1, 2026. The volume of postal courier collected during the Spring Festival period increased by 13.2% year-on-year [7] - The air freight market is showing resilience, with air freight price indices reflecting strong demand during the off-peak season, particularly for high-tech products [7] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading courier companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Shentong, which are expected to benefit from the favorable regulatory environment and market dynamics [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict has led to a surge in oil tanker rates, with VLCC rates reaching a historical high of $420,000 per day as of March 2, 2026. The market has shifted from prioritizing efficiency to prioritizing safety and certainty in pricing [2][4][8] - The oil supply chain has entered a "chaotic era," with a focus on the safety premium for Chinese shipowners, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [2][8] - The conflict has disrupted global shipping and industrial chain efficiency, leading to increased shipping demand for product tankers, chemical tankers, and container shipping opportunities [2][8] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The US-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil tanker rates, with VLCC rates driven by a tight supply-demand balance and geopolitical shocks. The demand for compliant oil transportation has increased due to sanctions on non-compliant oil-exporting countries [4][5] - As of March 1, 2026, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero, with limited alternative land pipeline capacity to compensate for the loss [5] Market Dynamics - The energy supply chain disruption has led to increased shipping demand for refined oil and LNG, with significant price increases observed in European natural gas markets [6] - The Middle East's energy chain damage is expected to boost demand for product tankers and chemical tankers, with a potential spillover effect on the oil tanker market [6][8] Container Shipping - The geopolitical tensions have raised risk premiums in container shipping, with major shipping companies suspending bookings in the Middle East and imposing war surcharges [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the shipping industry's underlying logic from efficiency to safety, recommending continued investment in Chinese shipowners and focusing on product tankers, chemical tankers, and container shipping opportunities [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict has led to a surge in oil tanker rates, with VLCC rates reaching a historical high of $420,000 per day as of March 2, 2026. The market has shifted from prioritizing efficiency to prioritizing safety and certainty in pricing [2][5][9] - The oil supply chain has entered a "chaotic era," with a focus on the safety premium for Chinese shipowners, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [2][9] - The conflict has disrupted global shipping and industrial chain efficiency, leading to increased shipping demand for product tankers, chemical tankers, and container shipping opportunities [2][9] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - The US-Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly impacted oil tanker operations, with the oil passage volume through the Strait expected to be 14.3 million tons per day in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of global oil shipping volume [5][6] Market Dynamics - The demand for compliant oil transportation has increased due to US sanctions on non-compliant oil-exporting countries, while supply has been tightened by major purchases of VLCC capacity by Long Jin Shipping [5][6] - The blockade has led to a zero passage rate for oil tankers through the Strait as of March 1, 2026, with limited alternatives available through land pipelines [6] Investment Opportunities - The disruption in the energy chain has created opportunities in product oil, LNG shipping, and chemical tankers, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping positioned to benefit from these trends [7][9] - The container shipping sector is also expected to see price increases due to heightened risk premiums in the Middle East, with companies like MSC and CMA CGM adjusting their pricing strategies [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained as "Buy" [6] Core Insights - In February, BYD's total sales reached 190,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 41.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.5%. Passenger car sales were 188,000 units, down 41.0% year-on-year and 8.6% month-on-month. The export volume remained strong at 100,000 units, up 41.4% year-on-year and flat month-on-month [2][4][10] - The company is expected to enter a new technology and product cycle in March, with significant advancements in its electric vehicle technology and a focus on high-end market expansion [10] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - February total sales: 190,000 vehicles, down 41.1% YoY, down 9.5% MoM - Passenger car sales: 188,000 units, down 41.0% YoY, down 8.6% MoM - Brand performance: Ocean series 165,000 units (-45.8% YoY), Fangcheng Leopard 17,000 units (+244.7% YoY), Tengshi 6,000 units (-35.4% YoY) - Export sales: 100,000 units, up 41.4% YoY, flat MoM [2][10] Market Strategy - Continued focus on overseas expansion and high-end product offerings, with new models expected to enhance profitability - The company is enhancing its technological capabilities, particularly in battery technology and smart driving features, to strengthen its competitive position in the global market [10] Financial Projections - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected at 35 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23X, indicating strong future profitability potential [10]