世界经济与海外市场丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接双宽松 ——美国 2026 年经济展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 特朗普 2.0 关税和移民等政策力度空前，但美国经济并未失速下滑，整体呈现经济韧性较强、 就业弱平衡、通胀温和的特征。展望 2026 年：1）货币政策方面——美国再通胀压力有限，就 业市场弱平衡的背景下，预计美联储将于 2026 年二季度再度开启降息，全年或降息 50BP 左 右；2）财政政策方面——美国 2026 财年赤字率或提升至 7%，主要用于减税、军事和国土安 全领域，财政支出重点在于对家庭、企业部门的减税；3）双宽托举之下，私人消费和 AI 相关 投资或是 2026 年经济增长主力，但由于政策的时滞效应，经济整体或呈前低后高态势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company, Juxing Technology, forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.419 to 2.764 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 20%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 2.309 to 2.654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% to 15.2% [2][6]. - The revenue for the year is expected to remain flat year-on-year, supported by new production capacities in Vietnam and Thailand, as well as significant growth in electric tool products. The company’s high level of internationalization and product innovation efficiency has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on profitability, while direct sales through cross-border e-commerce and increased sales of new products have effectively improved gross margins. Looking ahead to 2026, the inventory cycle and new product cycle are expected to resonate, with a high likelihood of an upward trend in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles, indicating a return to faster growth for the company [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 264 to 609 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -28.40% to 65.46%, and a median of 436 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 18.53%. The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 273 to 619 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -26.38% to 66.69%, and a median of 446 million yuan, corresponding to a year-on-year growth rate of 20.16% [6][12]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 2.592 billion yuan in 2025, 3.101 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.720 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times respectively [12]. Market Dynamics - The company has seen a recent increase in new orders, which is expected to gradually reflect in revenue. Despite some negative impacts from tariffs on domestic production capacity, overseas production capacity has returned to normal post-Q2, and the additional tariff costs have raised average industry prices, leading to a decline in industry sales [12]. - The electric tool segment is expected to see significant growth, becoming an important growth driver for the company. The company is continuously expanding its product categories and areas, with new products expected to gradually contribute to revenue growth [12]. Industry Outlook - As of January 2, 2026, the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.15%, down from 6.18%, which is expected to further stimulate housing demand and promote steady growth in home sales. The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of a rebound in the U.S. real estate and consumer cycles [12].

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] Neuralink 将开启大规模量产，脑机接口产业商 业化落地有望加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 北京时间 1 月 1 日上午，埃隆・马斯克在社交媒体 X 上表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 今年 将开始实现"大规模生产"脑机接口设备，并转向更精简、几乎完全自动化的外科手术流程。 当前时点，以 Neuralink 为代表的脑机接口产业正通过技术突破推动其商业化进展。在其规模 化量产预期和技术突破的催化下，脑机接口产业商业化落地有望加速，惠及全产业链。建议关 注三条主线：1、侵入式脑机接口海外先进产业链的国内映射标的；2、非侵入式脑机接口在消 费场景的产品落地相关标的；3、脑机接口下游应用端相关标的。 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has released the Alpamayo series of open-source AI models, simulation tools, and datasets aimed at advancing the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles. This initiative is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced intelligent driving technologies [2][4]. - The intelligent driving industry is anticipated to benefit from new technologies, leading to accelerated scaling and commercialization, positively impacting the entire industry chain. The report suggests focusing on intelligent driving hardware providers and autonomous driving operation platforms like Robotaxi [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - NVIDIA launched the Alpamayo series on January 5, 2026, to promote the development of safe and reliable inference-based assisted driving vehicles [4]. Event Commentary - The Alpamayo model introduces a visual-language-action (VLA) reasoning model for assisted driving decisions, showcasing the logic behind each decision and identifying unique driving situations that may not occur during normal driving. The model is based on a 10 billion parameter architecture, with future models expected to have larger parameter scales and enhanced reasoning capabilities [10]. - NVIDIA also released the open-source simulation framework AlpaSim and a large-scale open dataset containing over 1,700 hours of driving data, which supports high-fidelity autonomous driving development and rapid validation and strategy optimization [10]. - The Alpamayo model has garnered significant attention from leading companies in the mobility sector, such as Lucid, Jaguar Land Rover, and Uber, as well as experts from institutions like S&P Global and Berkeley DeepDrive. The core value of Alpamayo lies in advancing physical AI development and addressing unpredictable driving scenarios [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - In the 53rd week of 2025, the communication sector experienced a decline of 1.26%, ranking 24th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region. However, since the beginning of 2025, the sector has risen by 84.79%, ranking 1st among primary industries [2][5]. - SoftBank Group has made an additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI, fulfilling its $40 billion investment commitment, increasing its stake to approximately 11%, making it the second-largest shareholder. This funding will primarily support the expansion of OpenAI's large model training and inference capabilities [6][8]. - Meta Platforms has announced the acquisition of AI Agent startup Manus for over $2 billion, marking its third-largest acquisition in history. Manus has processed over 147 trillion tokens and created more than 80 million virtual computer instances, with a revenue run rate exceeding $125 million as of mid-December 2025 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector's performance in the 53rd week of 2025 showed a decline of 1.26%, while it has increased by 84.79% since the start of the year, leading the primary industries [2][5]. Company Developments - SoftBank's total investment in OpenAI has reached $41 billion, with a focus on enhancing AI capabilities and infrastructure [6]. - Meta's acquisition of Manus is aimed at leveraging AI technology to enhance user engagement across its platforms [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the communication sector, including: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid Cooling: Invec - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - The implementation date for the planned increase in tariffs on soft furniture from 25% to 30% and on cabinets and bathroom cabinets from 25% to 50% has been postponed by one year, reducing tariff pressure on furniture manufacturing export companies and alleviating subsequent inflation pressure in the U.S. furniture market [2][4] - The U.S. furniture industry is labor-intensive and heavily reliant on imports, with nearly 70% of imports coming from China, Vietnam, and Mexico. The previous tariff increases did not lead to a significant return of production capacity to the U.S. but rather shifted production to Southeast Asia [11] - The current tariff rates for U.S. furniture categories show that most countries face a 25% tariff, while China faces a 60% tariff on soft furniture and a 45% tariff on other furniture categories [11] - U.S. related companies' stock prices have rebounded significantly, with notable increases in stock prices for RH (up 8%), Wayfair (up 6%), and Williams-Sonoma (up 5%) [11] - The report continues to favor a rate cut chain, focusing on companies with established overseas production capabilities and absolute advantages in products or costs. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts are expected to further stimulate demand in the U.S. real estate and furniture markets [11] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The planned tariff increases on soft furniture and cabinets have been postponed to January 1, 2027, which is expected to ease the cost pressures on U.S. furniture manufacturers [2][4] Market Performance - The stock prices of U.S. furniture companies have shown significant rebounds following the tariff postponement, indicating positive market sentiment [11] Demand Recovery - The report anticipates a recovery in U.S. real estate and furniture demand due to the ongoing rate cuts, with potential for significant improvement in housing sales [11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including China Resources Land and Nanjing Bank, among others [12][19][53]. Core Insights - The report highlights the financial and manufacturing industries' investment outlook for January 2026, emphasizing the need to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential amid economic pressures [6][8][10]. - It identifies specific sectors such as real estate, non-bank financials, banking, new energy, machinery, military industry, light industry, and environmental protection as areas of interest for investment [8][10][21][32][36][43]. Summary by Sector Real Estate - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, necessitating policy easing. Key companies like China Resources Land are highlighted for their strong operational capabilities and cash flow stability [11][12][53]. Non-Bank Financials - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy support and high market trading volumes, with companies like New China Life Insurance showing strong growth potential [16][17][53]. Banking - The banking sector is viewed positively, with a focus on large banks and city commercial banks, particularly Jiangsu Bank, which is noted for its attractive valuation and growth prospects [18][19][53]. New Energy - The new energy sector is at a turning point, with companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Slin Smart Drive recommended for their growth potential in solar and energy storage technologies [21][23][53]. Machinery - The machinery sector is encouraged to focus on AI and robotics, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Ding Tai High-Tech identified for their growth opportunities in traditional and emerging markets [25][30][31][53]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to see growth from military-to-civilian transitions and military trade, with AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Company highlighted for its potential in the domestic and international markets [32][34][53]. Light Industry - The light industry is advised to focus on overseas manufacturing and new consumer opportunities, with companies like Yingke Medical and Meiyin Sen noted for their growth in international markets [36][40][53]. Environmental Protection - The environmental sector is poised for growth through overseas expansion and rising metal prices, with companies like Weiming Environmental and Ice Wheel Environment recommended for their strong market positions [43][48][51][53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a power generation volume of approximately 307.19 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.82%. The fourth quarter alone is projected to see a significant increase of 19.93% in power generation [2][6] - The anticipated dividend yield of the company is at a high level, with a difference from the ten-year government bond yield reaching the 97th percentile since 2023. The expected average dividend yield for 2026-2027 is projected to be 3.73%, indicating strong long-term investment value as a stable dividend stock [2][12] Summary by Sections Event Description - The company reported that its total power generation from six domestic hydropower stations is expected to be around 307.19 billion kWh in 2025, which exceeds the initial target of 300 billion kWh by 2.40%. The fourth quarter's generation is expected to be about 72.07 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.93% [6] Event Commentary - The fourth quarter has seen abundant water supply, leading to a robust performance in power generation. The company’s investment income is also expected to contribute positively to its overall performance. The company is projected to maintain steady growth in its annual performance [12] - The company has committed to a high dividend payout ratio of at least 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2026 to 2030, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [12] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.41, 1.44, and 1.47 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.33, 18.95, and 18.58 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - Recent developments in the AI sector include the successful listing of Wallen Technology on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Baidu's Kunlun Chip planning a spin-off listing. DeepSeek has proposed a new mHC architecture that reduces the energy and computational requirements for training advanced AI, potentially accelerating the industrialization of AI [2][4] - The report highlights the upcoming IPOs of AI companies Zhiyu and MiniMax on January 8 and 9, respectively, and notes the partnership of Doubao with the Spring Festival Gala as a significant event [2][10] - The report identifies several promising investment opportunities within the AI sector, including high-quality IP benefiting from AI technology advancements, internet giants with advantages in traffic, models, and data, and vertical sectors like advertising, e-commerce, and education that have successfully replicated overseas business models in China [2][10] Summary by Sections Recent Events - Wallen Technology has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, filling an important gap in the computing power sector. The company has developed a full chain of capabilities from high-end AI chips to computing clusters, with its self-developed "Biren" GPGPU architecture and related hardware products. The stock surged by 75.82% on its first day, indicating a new phase for the domestic computing power industry [10] - Baidu's Kunlun Chip is set to enhance its valuation transparency and attract investors focused on hard technology by planning a spin-off listing. The Kunlun Chip P800 cluster, capable of supporting multiple large models, marks a significant milestone in domestic computing power [10] - DeepSeek's new mHC architecture addresses issues in the existing Hyper-Connections structure, showing a mere 6.7% increase in training time while achieving significant performance improvements, thus lowering the costs associated with AI model training [10] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the accelerated marginal growth in AI, with a focus on investment opportunities in the AI sector. It highlights the potential of high-quality IP benefiting from AI advancements, internet giants with data advantages, and vertical sectors that can replicate successful overseas business models [2][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported December 2025 sales of 237,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 23.7%. The total sales for the year reached 3.025 million units, up 39.0% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy. The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, and the scale effects are expected to enhance profitability [2][7]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets. The company is set to accelerate its smart driving capabilities as part of its intelligent strategy [2][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - December 2025 sales were 237,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 12.7% and a month-on-month decline of 23.7%. The breakdown includes 173,000 units from Geely brand, 34,000 from Lynk & Co, and 30,000 from Zeekr, with respective year-on-year changes of +10.2%, +29.4%, and +11.3% [7]. - For the entire year, cumulative sales reached 3.025 million units, with significant contributions from Galaxy (1.236 million units, +149.9%), Lynk & Co (350,000 units, +25.4%), and Zeekr (224,000 units, -1.8%) [7]. Strategic Outlook - Geely aims for total sales of 3.45 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The targets for each brand are 2.75 million for Geely, 400,000 for Lynk & Co, and 300,000 for Zeekr [7]. - The company is focusing on brand strategy, with simultaneous efforts in electrification and intelligence, supported by a strong new vehicle cycle [7]. Financial Projections - The expected net profit for 2025 is 17 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6x, indicating significant profitability potential [7].