丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 焦煤期货为何反弹？持续性如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周焦煤期货周环比上涨 7.2%至 779 元/吨。从原因上看，焦煤期货反弹或主要和蒙古资源税 上调传闻、供应收缩预期增强、期货超跌修复有关。然而我们认为，本轮反弹或为技术修复+情 绪驱动带来的阶段性行情，焦煤供需并未实质性改善。因此从基差修复维度来看短期焦煤期货 或仍存震荡反弹空间，但从中期来看焦煤淡季需求依旧承压，长期则重点关注需求政策与焦煤 供需再平衡情况。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 投资建议 边际配置推荐：1）长久期稳盈利龙头： ...

世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业韧性，令美联储仍可"按兵不动" ——5 月美国非农就业数据点评 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月，美国新增非农就业人数回落但高于预期，失业率小幅走高，但基本持平前值。整 体而言，虽然关税的负面影响有所体现，但数据指向美国就业仍稳健，市场对美国衰退担忧降 温，加之薪资数据指向通胀压力上升，综合之下，美联储有更充分的理由继续等待。向前看， 短期，美国就业韧性显然指向美联储仍可"按兵不动"；中期，"对等关税"暂停期满后，实质 的关税落地规模，及其对经济的影响仍是决定后续美国货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 就业韧性，令美联储仍可"按兵不动" 2] ——5 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 6 月 6 日，美国劳工统计局公布 2025 年 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们预计债市短端利率可能打开下行空间，预计 1 年同业存单收益率下行至 1.6%左右，1 年期 国债收益率下行至 1.3%，短端利率的充分下行将会带来长端利率的下行空间。一方面，若央行 买卖国债重启，将直接利好债市，尤其是短端品种；即使不考虑央行通过一级交易商买入国债， 出于平衡资负压力需求和应对长债调整压力，大行也有买入短债的动力。另一方面，存款挂牌 利率带来的存款"搬家"预计节奏偏缓，银行负债压力可控，且当前央行流动性投放呵护态度 明确，同业存单利率也有望继续下行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title] 买短债，正当时 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 买短债，正当时 [Table_Summary2] 大行买入短债，短端行情有望开启 央行买卖国债操作如果重启，将直接利好债市，尤其是短端品种。央行若重启国债买卖操作， 形式可能和 202 ...

[Table_Title] 递推法下机构久期全解析 固定收益丨深度报告 ——走在债市曲线之前系列（四） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基于优化后的递推法，本文构建了六类金融机构久期测算体系，该方法相较于传统重仓加权法 和回归法在普适性、更新频率及敏感性方面更具优势，能够有效跟踪机构久期变化。研究发现 各机构久期分化显著，久期排序为：保险>券商自营>农商行>债基>理财>货基，久期分化背后 反映的是各机构配债思路和风格的显著区别。部分机构久期的变动与收益率走势密切相关，基 金和券商自营久期在提前 2 期时与 10Y 国债收益率的相关性最强，具有一定前瞻性，我们据此 构建了 10Y 国债择时策略，回测表明发出买入信号后 3 日的胜率达 62.87%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.955 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨联想集团（0992.HK） [Table_Title] 三大业务全线突破，扣非净利润稳健增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 22 日，联想集团发布 FY2025 财年第四季度及全财年业绩， FY2025 公司实现营收 690.77 亿美元，同比+21.48%；归母净利润 13.84 亿美元，同比+37.01%。毛利率 16.07%，同比下滑 1.17pct；归母净利率 2.00%，同比增长 0.22pct。FY2025 Q4 公司实现营收 169.84 亿美元， 同比增长 22.78%；归母净利润 0.9 亿美元，同比下降 63.71%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 联想集团（0992.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 三大业务全线突破，扣非净利润稳健增长 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 5 月 22 日，联想集团发布 FY2025 财 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨专题报告丨房地产 [Table_Title] 现房销售的海南经验 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 海南 2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"，至今已超过 5 年，是观察现房销售影响的一个参照系。得 益于库存充足和市场上行，现房制度对海南市场的短期影响相对可控；微观层面，执行现房销 售使得开盘周期延长一年甚至以上，明显降低资金周转效率；尽管现房销售拖累周转速度，但 通过地价让利和其他配套支持，项目在利润率层面获得补偿。边际角度，高地价、严预售的城 市受影响更小，以及具备融资和产品优势的房企更具备抵抗力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 现房销售的海南经验 [Table_Summary2] 海南执行现房销售已超过五年 海南 2018 年 4 月实施"全域限购"，2020 年 3 月首推"现房销售"。海南房地产市场在 2010 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [14]. Core Views - The company, Times New Materials, is a new materials platform under the state-owned enterprise China CRRC, showcasing strong competitiveness in recent years. The company has a solid foundation and is expected to continue growing across various sectors by 2025, particularly benefiting from the wind power segment, which is anticipated to contribute the most profit elasticity due to rising installation volumes and prices [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Times New Materials focuses on the research and engineering application of polymer materials, extending its products into rubber, plastics, composite materials, and functional materials. The company has achieved large-scale engineering applications in industries such as rail transportation, industrial engineering, wind power, automotive parts, new materials, and special equipment. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve sales of 20.055 billion yuan, with a total workforce of 6,341, including 1,184 R&D personnel [22][27]. Wind Power Blades - The wind power blade industry is characterized by high concentration, with Times New Materials and China National Materials forming a dual-leader structure, together holding nearly 60% of the market share. The company has been enhancing its competitive advantages through deep cooperation with quality clients and improving operational efficiency. Despite overall industry losses in recent years, the company has maintained stable profitability, with expectations for wind power installations to accelerate in 2025, reaching 111 GW, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [9][50][32]. New Materials - The new materials division is focusing on high-end polyurethane damping products, wear-resistant products, HP-RTM composite materials, and advanced organic silicon materials. The new materials industrial park is gradually being put into operation, which will enhance the company's scale advantages and further industrialize its R&D achievements, indicating broad long-term growth potential [10][28]. Automotive Sector - The automotive sector has seen strategic adjustments leading to operational improvements, with the company expected to turn profitable in 2024 and further solidify its results in 2025. There is significant potential for increasing the value per vehicle, as the company currently mainly supplies damping products and injection-molded parts, which have relatively low value per vehicle [11][29]. Rail Transportation & Industrial Engineering - The company is actively expanding production capacity and pursuing overseas market opportunities. It has established close collaborations with major global locomotive manufacturers and is expected to leverage its global factory resources to further penetrate international markets [12][29].

联合研究丨公司深度丨时代新材（600458.SH） [Table_Title] 厚积薄发，新材料平台型龙头崛起 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 时代新材是央企中国中车旗下的新材料产业平台，长期积累底蕴深厚，近年进一步彰显竞争力， 轨交&工业工程稳居龙头，风电叶片规模及盈利能力快速追赶，汽车业务实现扭亏为盈。展望 2025 年各板块继续成长：风电有望受益装机高景气之下的量价齐升，贡献最大利润弹性；新材 料产业园竣工，产业孵化渐成；汽车板块有望继续夯实扭亏成果，中长期成长空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 邬博华 赵智勇 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BRP550 张佩 李浩 司鸿历 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490520080002 SFC：BUD284 董超 屈奇 周圣钧 SAC：S049052 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用债策略转向"以守为攻" 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月上中旬信用债建议转向防御性票息策略，聚焦中高等级品种以规避利率波动风险，静待超 长地方债及优质产业债配置窗口；当前信用利差收窄空间相对有限，需适当缩短久期并优选抗 跌性强的品种。存款降息推动资金向理财和保险迁移，结构性利好 AA+及以上城投债，但需警 惕弱区域城投及低等级产业债的分化风险。利率债市场尚处"预期真空期"，波动可能通过估 值、流动性及利差路径冲击信用债，建议小幅降低久期、避免资质过度下沉，静待情绪企稳期 择机布局国企产业债价值洼地。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-06 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 信用债策略转向"以守为攻" [Table_Summa] 防 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Banks are significant participants in the bond market, and changes in their investment strategies can greatly impact the market [3][17] - The analysis is based on 135 sample banks, revealing a trend of reduced allocation to self-operated investments while increasing the proportion of trading accounts, particularly OCI assets, in a low-interest-rate environment [5][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the marginal changes in the investment strategies of state-owned banks due to their substantial influence on the bond market [8] Summary by Sections Bank Self-Operated Investment Overview - The self-operated investment business of banks accounted for 30.7% of total assets by the end of 2024, showing a significant upward trend from 2022 to 2024 [5][15] - The increase in self-operated investment is driven by the need for performance management amid pressure on net interest margins and weak growth in interest income and fees [32][29] Accounting Classification of Self-Operated Investments - Self-operated investments are classified into three accounting categories: AC (Amortized Cost), OCI (Other Comprehensive Income), and TPL (Trading Profit and Loss), each affecting the profit and loss statement differently [6][43] - The structure of these accounts varies among different types of banks, with state-owned banks having the highest proportion of AC accounts, while rural commercial banks lead in OCI assets [56][57] Impact of Low-Interest Rates on Investment Strategies - In a low-interest-rate environment, banks are reducing the proportion of AC accounts to mitigate passive holding risks and expanding trading accounts to capture market fluctuations [65][66] - The report notes that banks can realize gains from OCI and AC accounts to support their performance during periods of profit pressure, with a contribution of 2.2% to operating income from such actions in 2024 [71][72] Focus on State-Owned Banks' Investment Strategy Changes - The report highlights that changes in the trading account proportions of state-owned banks can lead to increased market predictability and reduced volatility in the bond market [8][86] - However, unexpected events can lead to significant market fluctuations due to differing interpretations among market participants [8]