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政府债周报(12/14):下周新增债披露发行352亿-20251216
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-16 05:47
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 下周新增债披露发行 352 亿 ——政府债周报(12/14) 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日-12 月 21 日地方债披露发行 400.4 亿元。其中新增债 352.2 亿元(新增一般债 59.6 亿元,新增专项债 292.6 亿元),再融资债 48.2 亿元(再融资一般债 39.2 亿元,再融资专项债 9.0 亿元)。 12 月 8 日-12 月 14 日地方债共发行 1069.6 亿元。其中新增债 710.5 亿元(新增一般债 210.0 亿元,新增专项债 500.5 亿元),再融资债 359.0 亿元(再融资一般债 187.4 亿元,再融资专项 债 171.6 亿元)。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 下周新增债披露发行 2] 352 亿 ——政府债周报(12/14 ...
AI产业跟踪:GPT-5.2发布,关注大模型迭代进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-16 05:20
宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 $${\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}$$ 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪:GPT-5.2 发布,关注大模型迭代进 展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当地时间 12 月 11 日,OpenAI 正式发布新一代大模型 GPT-5.2,主打通用智能、编码能力和 长上下文任务处理,作为近期连续版本更新中的又一项核心升级。此次,OpenAI 发布"迄今为 止功能最强大的专业知识工作模型系列"——GPT-5.2,在提升性能的同时,将重心逐步转移 至其模型货币化,或将加速大模型的商业化落地。建议关注:1)国内大模型厂商;2)国内大 型云厂商;3)垂类场景 Agent 厂商;4)国产算力产业链。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] %% ...
万级规模量子芯片问世,量子计算产业持续突破
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-16 05:06
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 万级规模量子芯片问世,量子计算产业持续突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 9 日,量子计算领域的创新企业 QuantWare 宣布推出新一代量子处理器单元 (QPU)架构,其 VIO - 40K 量子处理器能够支持创建包含 10000 个量子比特的芯片。此次万 级规模量子芯片的问世,突破了现有量子芯片的规模瓶颈,并证明了量子计算可以通过工程创 新突破物理极限。这或将加速量子计算的实用化进程,从而带动包括基础光电元器件、量子通 信核心元器件、量子通信传输干线、量子系统平台、以及应用层的量子科技全产业链发展。建 议关注量子科技全产业链,重点关注量子计算及量子通信龙头企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 万级规模量子芯片问世,量子计算产业持续突 2] 破 [Table_Su ...
通信行业周观点:Scale-up光互连提速,商业航天产业节奏或加快-20251216
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-16 04:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [9]. Core Insights - The communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 5.94% increase in the 50th week of 2025, leading the Yangtze primary industry rankings. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 80.55% [2][4]. - Demand for optical chips, crucial for AI optical interconnects, remains strong, with overseas capacity expansion focusing on high-margin EML products. The commercialization pace of OCS and CPO is accelerating, driven by the scaling of AI clusters, which will further boost optical module demand [2][7]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a period of intensified activity, with core components like antennas and power supplies expected to see increased usage, enhancing their anti-deflationary characteristics [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 50th week of 2025, the communication sector outperformed with a 5.94% increase, ranking first among primary industries. Since the beginning of the year, it has surged by 80.55% [2][4]. - Notable stock performances include Dekeli (+43.7%), Zhongci Electronics (+40.7%), and Huamao Technology (+28.5%) for gains, while Heertai (-12.6%), ZTE (-10.0%), and Nanjing Panda (-8.0%) faced declines [4]. Optical Chip Demand - Optical chips are in high demand, with Lumentum reporting that its EML production accounts for 50%-60% of the global market. The company has sold out its products until 2026 and has significant bookings for 2027, maintaining high prices [5]. - The company plans to increase EML capacity by approximately 40% over the next three quarters, although a 20% supply-demand gap currently exists, expected to widen to 30% by mid-2026 [5]. Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a higher catalytic density, with potential applications in space data centers and a focus on rocket reusability tests expected to accelerate industry activity [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with high elasticity and anti-deflation characteristics, particularly in core components like antennas and power supplies [6]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended operators include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. For optical modules, suggested companies are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Shijia Photon, with attention to Tai Chen Guang and Yuanjie Technology [7]. - Other recommendations include Invech for liquid cooling, and Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric, and Zhongtian Technology for hollow-core fibers [7].
啤酒行业更新点评:歪马送酒门店持续扩张,啤酒即时零售进程延续
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨啤酒 [Table_Title] 啤酒行业更新点评:"歪马送酒"门店持续扩 张,啤酒即时零售进程延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日,美团旗下酒类即时零售平台"歪马送酒"门店数量已突破 2000 家, 累计服务用户规模近 3000 万,交易额超 60 亿元,进入酒类品牌 TOP3,发展势能强劲。即时 零售平台通过数字化可更为精准地洞悉消费者喜好与消费趋势,为啤酒公司提供产品方向,能 够快速响应市场需求、打造爆款产品的啤酒公司有望在新渠道的竞争中获取更大份额。重点推 荐青岛啤酒、燕京啤酒、华润啤酒、重庆啤酒。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490524060001 SFC:BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 啤酒行业更新点评:"歪马送酒"门店持续扩张, 2] 啤酒即时零售进程延续 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 ...
非药行业2026年度投资策略:复苏中前行,聚焦出海、创新
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:59
行业研究丨深度报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 复苏中前行,聚焦出海、创新——非药行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 突破量价限制,出海、创新成为关键。2025 年非药板块业绩持续承压,集采降价、医保控费, 零售药店关店优化、非必需医疗需求尚未恢复,行业面临量价限制,但仍然有公司通过出海、 创新等关键抓手实现戴维斯双击。展望 2026 年,我们认为胰岛素出海、医疗器械出海、中药 的创新转型、创新器械等仍会创造个股α机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 32 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 彭英骐 徐晓欣 张楠 SAC:S0490524030005 SAC:S0490522120001 SAC:S0490524070006 医疗保健 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 复苏中前行,聚焦出海、创新——非药行业 2] 2026 年度投资策略 [Table_Summa ...
医药行业创新药&链 2026 年度投资策略:周期向上,兼具成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:58
行业研究丨深度报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 周期向上,兼具成长 ——医药行业创新药&链 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2026 年,创新药与创新链正迎来明确的周期共振与成长机遇。创新药板块政策周期向上, 医保支付多元化助力创新药放量,产业核心驱动力在于"走向全球",BD 出海已成趋势,中国 创新药在全球专利悬崖机遇中展现强大竞争力。创新链(CXO 及生命科学服务)作为"卖水 人",直接受益于海内外需求共振。海外投融资环境随降息改善,国内研发投入意愿强劲,共同 推动板块否极泰来。CDMO 订单与业绩增长明确,CRO 订单改善预示业绩拐点将至,行业景 气度正沿产业链有序传导。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490524030005 SAC:S0490525050001 SAC:S0490525070007 SFC:BUZ392 彭英骐 万梦蝶 刘长洪 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 29 %% %% %% %% research.95579. ...
新雷能(300593):高性能电源龙头,乘 AI 算力之风
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company has experienced short-term operational fluctuations due to the order rhythm in the special and communication industries. However, it is expected to return to mid-to-high-speed growth due to previous high R&D investments, new capacity releases, and a new round of equity incentives [2][5]. - The high-reliability special power supply market has significant growth potential, driven by trends in equipment electrification and emerging sectors like domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace. As a leading domestic manufacturer, the company is poised to benefit [6][60]. - In the AIDC and communication sectors, the company is leveraging its deep expertise in high-performance power supplies to tap into the burgeoning AIDC power market, which is expected to yield substantial revenue growth [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997, the company focuses on high-efficiency, high-reliability, and high-power-density power products, particularly in aerospace, aerospace, and special high-grade power supply fields. It has developed a rich product portfolio and offers comprehensive solutions across multiple industries [5][18]. Market Trends - The high-reliability special power supply market is recovering steadily, with long-term positive trends. The demand for power supplies in domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace is expected to expand significantly, with projected annual demand reaching 16.9 billion in the next 20 years [6][54]. - The AIDC and communication sectors are experiencing a boom driven by AI computing power, leading to increased demand for server power supplies. The global AI server power module market is projected to grow from $6.5 billion to $60.8 billion between 2025 and 2031 [7][28]. Financial Performance - The company has faced short-term revenue and profit fluctuations due to order volatility in the special and communication sectors. However, it has shown signs of improvement in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 929 million, a year-on-year increase of 36% [27][29]. - The company's gross margin has fluctuated, with a projected gross margin of 40% for 2024 and 2025, reflecting the impact of product structure adjustments and increased R&D expenses [29][30]. R&D and Capacity Expansion - The company maintains a strong commitment to R&D, with a focus on developing core technologies and expanding its product offerings. It has accumulated 399 intellectual property rights, including 67 invention patents [35][36]. - New capacity projects across multiple locations are nearing completion, with significant contributions expected to revenue and production capacity by 2025 and 2026 [42][44]. Equity Incentives - The company has implemented multiple rounds of equity incentives to bind core employees, with the latest plan aiming for substantial revenue growth targets over the next three years [46][48].
厦钨新能(688778):联合研究|公司点评|厦钨新能(688778.SH):量增利稳,多线布局,静待固态业务放量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 13:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.059 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 552 million yuan, up 41.54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 506 million yuan, growing by 48.2% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan, marking a 50.45% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, which is a 61.82% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in sales volume of lithium battery cathode materials, reaching 99,900 tons in the first three quarters, a 40.41% increase year-on-year. The sales of lithium cobalt oxide reached 46,900 tons, up 45.38% year-on-year [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 17.166 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 1.049 billion yuan for 2026 [15]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with a forecast of 10% for 2026 [15]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on the stable growth of its main business, with expectations of benefiting from the technological iteration in AI smartphones, which may enhance its market share [11]. - The solid-state battery segment is being actively developed, with positive progress in the validation of new cathode materials and electrolytes [11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising cobalt prices, which are expected to further enhance profitability [11]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is intensifying, but the company’s strategic initiatives in high-nickel cathode materials and low-cost production methods are anticipated to sustain its competitive edge [11].
如何看 2025 年 11 月消费数据?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 13:36
[Table_Title] 如何看 2025 年 11 月消费数据? 联合研究丨行业点评 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月份,社会消费品零售总额 43898 亿元,同比增长 1.3%。其中,除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 39444 亿元,增长 2.5%。1—11 月份,社会消费品零售总额 456067 亿元,增长 4.0%。其 中,除汽车以外的消费品零售额 411637 亿元,增长 4.6%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 赵刚 高伊楠 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517020001 SAC:S0490517060001 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUX176 SFC:BUW101 于旭辉 蔡方羿 董思远 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490516060001 SAC:S0490517070016 SFC:BUU942 SFC:BUV463 SFC:BQK487 陈亮 SAC:S0490517070017 SFC:BUW408 请阅读最后 ...