Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of relative performance that exceeds the relevant market indices over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the transportation sector's public fund heavy holding ratio decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 1.09%, primarily due to significant reductions in logistics and supply chain investments, while the aviation sector saw a slight increase in allocation [2][6]. - The number of heavily held stocks in the transportation sector increased to 60, with a total market value of 21.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [6]. - The transportation sector index outperformed major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index, with a quarterly increase of 3.4% [6]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The transportation sector's allocation is ranked 17th among 32 primary industries, indicating an underweight status compared to the standard allocation ratio of 2.46% [6]. - The allocation ratios for sub-sectors in Q4 2025 are as follows: Aviation (0.50%), Logistics and Supply Chain (0.34%), Rail and Road (0.12%), Maritime (0.08%), and Transportation Infrastructure (0.05%) [6][14]. Heavy Holdings - The top five heavily held stocks in the transportation sector accounted for 57.7% of the total market value, with the top ten accounting for 79.2%, indicating an increase in concentration [7]. - The leading stocks by market value in Q4 2025 were China Eastern Airlines (4.55 billion yuan), Southern Airlines (3.08 billion yuan), and SF Express (2.29 billion yuan) [7][22]. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the transportation sector increased to 4.3%, with the aviation sector being the largest segment at 11.61 billion yuan, representing 27.5% of the transportation industry [8][26]. - The top five stocks with the highest foreign ownership ratios included Sichuan Chengyu, Southern Airlines, and Iron Dragon Logistics, with foreign ownership ratios of 15.4%, 14.6%, and 8.1% respectively [8][26].

- The report focuses on the "CSI Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme Index," which selects 40 listed companies with nonferrous metal mineral reserves as index samples, reflecting the overall performance of nonferrous metal mining-themed listed companies. The index emphasizes upstream mining companies due to their higher profit elasticity and direct benefits from metal price increases. The index is designed to capture the value of upstream resource enterprises and is suitable for investors optimistic about resource cycle trends[27][28][32] - The index adopts a balanced strategy for selecting constituent stocks. It first excludes the bottom 10% of low-liquidity stocks based on daily trading volume, then selects the top three securities from each CSI fourth-level industry based on market capitalization rankings over the past year. If fewer than three securities are available, all are included. Remaining samples are added based on market capitalization rankings until the total reaches 40 stocks. This ensures representation across various resource categories, including gold, aluminum, rare earths, cobalt, lithium, and other strategic metals. The index is adjusted semi-annually in June and December[28][32] - The index's constituent stocks are distributed across four major sectors: industrial metals, energy metals, precious metals, and strategic small metals. This structure aligns with high-demand downstream industries such as new energy, AI computing power, power infrastructure, and semiconductors, enabling precise capture of core investment opportunities across the entire industry chain[7][32][40] - The index's market capitalization distribution is concentrated in large-cap stocks, with 55.61% of the weight allocated to stocks with a market capitalization above 1 trillion RMB. Mid-cap stocks (200-1000 billion RMB) account for 43.09% of the weight, providing effective support. This structure avoids risks associated with small-cap stocks while leveraging the resource barriers of large-cap leaders and capturing growth opportunities in niche sectors[41][46] - The index demonstrates strong performance across various timeframes. Over the past year, its return reached 120.35%, significantly outperforming major broad-based indices like the CSI 300 (24.58%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (27.13%). It also surpassed industry indices such as the SW Nonferrous Metals Index (107.58%). In the medium term, its six-month return was 95.59%, and its three-month return was 28.48%. Short-term performance was equally impressive, with a one-month return of 24.06%[59][62][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - Intel, a leader in the global CPU market, has secured a significant contract worth up to $151 billion, which is nearly three times its projected revenue for 2024, indicating a strong demand outlook [2][11] - The supply chain dynamics are a crucial factor driving CPU price increases, with a tight supply situation exacerbated by high demand from major cloud service providers [11] - The AI era is expected to amplify the demand for CPUs, with new applications and technologies potentially widening the supply-demand gap [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - Intel's stock price increased by 33.59% from December 24, 2025, to January 20, 2026, while Nvidia's stock decreased by 5.89% during the same period [5] - On January 20, 2026, Intel announced it won a significant contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, which could contribute to its revenue growth [5] Market Dynamics - The CPU market is experiencing a supply crunch, with major players like AMD and Intel having sold out their server CPU capacities for the year due to high demand [11] - Both companies are planning to raise server CPU prices by 10-15% to address the supply-demand imbalance [11] Future Outlook - The report recommends focusing on the domestic CPU industry, particularly highlighting the potential for domestic manufacturers to gain market share as overseas prices rise [11] - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the CPU market driven by AI applications, suggesting that companies like Haiguang Information could see significant performance improvements [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the space photovoltaic industry [3]. Core Insights - The space photovoltaic market is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale, driven by the increasing demand from low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and advancements in photovoltaic technology [8][41]. - The report highlights the transition from traditional gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells to silicon and perovskite technologies, indicating a shift towards cost-effective solutions in space applications [55][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Growth Drivers - The demand for space photovoltaics is significantly driven by communication and computing satellites, with LEO satellites becoming the mainstream development direction due to their lower costs and shorter development cycles [12]. - The Starlink project is expected to generate substantial revenue, with predictions of over 9 million customers by 2025, covering more than 155 countries [17]. 2. Technology Trends - GaAs multi-junction solar cells are currently the mainstream technology for space applications, achieving efficiencies over 30% [45]. - The report anticipates that silicon will become the next-generation technology, while perovskite is expected to emerge as the ultimate solution due to its high power-to-weight ratio and lower production costs [64]. 3. Material Innovations - The satellite power system consists of three main components: power generation units (solar wings), energy storage units (lithium-ion batteries), and control units [71]. - Flexible solar wings are gaining traction, with advancements in materials leading to the development of ultra-thin glass (UTG) and polyimide (PI) films for better performance in harsh space environments [81][84]. 4. Market Potential - The report estimates that the market space for low Earth orbit satellite photovoltaic systems could reach 275 billion yuan, while the market for space computing could exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030 [41]. - The anticipated peak in satellite launches from 2030 to 2035 is expected to further drive the demand for space photovoltaics, with projections indicating over 18,000 satellites launched annually [23]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines the competitive landscape, highlighting key players in the space photovoltaic sector and their respective advancements in technology and materials [88].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to cyclical challenges, but with ample unrecognized resources and high-quality land reserves gradually being recognized, there is potential for significant profit elasticity once the cycle stabilizes [2][7] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with proactive investment expansion and a focus on optimizing land reserve quality [2][7] - The expectation of policy easing amid cyclical pressures suggests a potential valuation recovery for this state-owned enterprise [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 308.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan, down 79.5%. The non-recurring net profit was 630 million yuan, down 85.2% [7][8] - The company’s sales amounted to 253 billion yuan, a decline of 21.7%, with a sales area of 12.35 million square meters, down 31.2%, and an average price of 20,500 yuan per square meter, up 13.9% [7][8] - The company successfully issued 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds with a low coupon rate of 2.20%, reflecting strong investor confidence in its value [7][8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.2 billion yuan and 1.8 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 65x and 43x [7][8] - The company is actively optimizing its land reserve structure and has increased its land acquisition budget to 79.1 billion yuan, up 15.9% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2025, the sales, construction starts, and funding for real estate are expected to maintain a double-digit decline, but the decline is slightly narrowing. The price index for new and second-hand homes has also seen a reduction in decline, with the second-hand home price index in first-tier cities experiencing an expanded decline. Investment decline has significantly widened. As important policy thresholds approach, recent marginal policy optimizations may signal a reopening of the policy window. Current conventional policies still have room for adjustment, and extraordinary policies also have considerable leeway, although there is uncertainty regarding timing. Attention should be paid to subsequent important policy nodes. The current stock positions are not significantly overpriced, emphasizing leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and product strength. Additionally, focus on leading brokerage firms with stable cash flow, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][11][12]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction - In 2025, the total sales of commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, and the sales area decreased by 8.7%. The decline in sales narrowed, with December sales down 23.6% and area down 15.6% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit decline as expected. The price index for new homes and second-hand homes in December fell by 0.4% and 0.7% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3.0% and 6.1%. The overall trend of volume and price adjustments is expected to continue, with increasing pressure on both residential and corporate sides [11][12]. Construction Starts and Completion - In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December seeing a 19.4% decline. The decline remains significant but has slightly narrowed. The completion area decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, with December down 18.3%. The overall trend indicates that the construction cycle has peaked and is expected to continue with double-digit declines in the short to medium term [11][12]. Funding and Investment - In 2025, the total funding for real estate companies decreased by 13.4% year-on-year, with December down 26.7%. The decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds was 7.3% and 12.2%, respectively, indicating continued financing pressure. The total investment in real estate development decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with December down 35.8%. The investment performance is expected to remain under pressure due to increasing sales pressure [11][12]. Annual Outlook - After over four years of rapid adjustment, key indicators in China's real estate sector have significantly declined from their peaks. The industry is likely entering a second half of adjustment, but short-term recovery signs are not evident. Under neutral expectations, the industry is expected to maintain double-digit declines in core indicators in 2026, although the rate of decline may narrow if policy effects exceed expectations [11][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of medium and large buses reached approximately 20,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% but a month-on-month increase of 56.5%. The export sales were particularly strong, with about 9,098 units exported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.5% and a month-on-month increase of 110.4%. Domestic sales of medium and large buses were 11,000 units, down 28.6% year-on-year but up 28.9% month-on-month [2][4][9] - The sales of medium and large public buses in December were 9,796 units, down 32.6% year-on-year but up 30.6% month-on-month, primarily due to the decline in domestic sales. In contrast, the sales of medium and large seat buses were 9,331 units, up 73.8% year-on-year and 97.5% month-on-month, driven by strong export performance [2][4][9] - For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of medium and large buses totaled 126,000 units, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year, with exports accounting for 58,000 units, up 30.7%, while domestic sales were 68,000 units, down 4.0% [2][4][9] - The report highlights that Yutong and King Long experienced significant month-on-month sales growth in December, with total sales of 8,864 and 7,254 units respectively, and strong export growth [9][10] Summary by Sections Monthly Sales Performance - December 2025 saw a total of approximately 20,000 medium and large buses sold, with exports showing remarkable growth [2][4] - The breakdown of sales indicates a strong performance in exports, particularly for seat buses, while domestic sales faced challenges [2][4] Yearly Performance Overview - The total wholesale sales for 2025 were 126,000 units, with a notable increase in exports and a slight decline in domestic sales [2][4] - The report emphasizes the impact of the "old-for-new" policy, which has positively influenced the growth of public buses [9][10] Company-Specific Insights - Yutong and King Long's sales figures for December indicate a robust export market, with significant increases in their respective export volumes [9][10] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies like Yutong for potential investment opportunities due to their strong performance and market position [9][10]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小菜园（00999.HK） [Table_Title] 近期观点更新 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小菜园在 2025 年 7 月实现高铁冠名列车首发与香港首店装修启动，双措并举推动品牌迈上新 台阶，11 月公司门店总数（含子品牌）突破了 800 家，12 月小菜园自营门店总数突破 810 家， 超额完成全年目标。看好公司未来围绕全球化、数字化与可持续化三大核心方向加速布局，供 应链赋能小菜园品牌继续加密现有城市、进驻新城市，"菜手"顺应消费趋势，成为公司第二大 品牌。公司定位契合当下餐饮行业消费趋势，在行业复苏下，有望凭借科学的标准化管理、完 备的供应链、优越的单店模型抢抓发展机遇。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小菜园（00999.HK） cjzqdt111 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [13][14]. Core Insights - The company is the only publicly listed entity within the China Tobacco system, tasked with the mission of "international business expansion and capital market operations" [9][18]. - The company has a unique business model with stable operations and strong profit margins, benefiting from exclusive rights in its operations [10][31]. - The company has significant potential for both organic growth and external acquisitions, with a vast reserve of overseas assets within the China Tobacco system [9][10]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates as the core platform for overseas capital operations and international business expansion within the China Tobacco system [9][18]. - It is expected to integrate high-quality overseas assets from the China Tobacco system and actively seek external acquisition targets to enhance its growth [9][10]. Financial Performance - From 2016 to 2024, the company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow at CAGRs of 10% and 12%, respectively, indicating a stable upward trend in operations [9][10]. - The company has a light asset model with high return on equity (ROE), primarily relying on inventory and receivables, with fixed assets valued at less than 100 million HKD [10][35]. Tobacco Leaf Business - The company has exclusive rights to import and export tobacco leaves, with a projected CAGR of 11% for its import business from 2018 to 2024 [57]. - The pricing model for imported tobacco leaves is based on a fixed markup, typically around 6% [57]. Cigarette Export Business - The company operates in duty-free shops across two countries (Thailand and Singapore) and has a dual model of self-operated and wholesale sales, covering over 200 duty-free outlets [10][31]. - The long-term growth of the cigarette export business is expected to be driven by an increase in self-operated sales, product category expansion, and growth in taxable channels [10][31]. Global Development - The company is positioned to benefit from the global trend towards new tobacco products, with ongoing efforts to expand its market presence in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East [12][31]. - The company has already seen significant growth in its Brazilian operations, with revenue increasing from 315 million HKD in 2021 to 1.05 billion HKD in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 49.4% [11][12]. New Tobacco Products - The company is actively developing its new tobacco product export business, focusing on heated non-combustible products, with plans to expand into various international markets [12][31]. - The long-term outlook for this segment is positive, contingent on the introduction of competitive new tobacco products by local industrial companies [12][31].