丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 预计银行一季报稳定，城商行优于预期 ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 13 周 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary] 预计上市银行一季报业绩总体平稳，国股行营收可能仍有小幅下滑压力，主要利息净收入预计 仍有压力，另外股份行中收一季度预计仍有压力；净利润预计保持正增长，去年一季度基数较 低，同时适度降低拨备释放盈利。预计城商行营收保持正增长，市场主要担心受债市波动影响 投资收益拖累营收，预计一季度通过逐步兑现浮盈等方式支撑营收正增，同时利息净收入压力 预计改善，预计负债成本继续加速改善，息差压力缓解，同时规模继续保持高增速；净利润预 计继续保持正增长，增速下降，但绝对水平继续领跑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Title 预计银行一季报稳定，城商行优于预期 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 全球视野看家电之拉美：扬帆起航 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 拉美家电市场规模稳步增长，空调与小家电品类普及率提升空间较大。竞争格局上，本土品牌 与国际龙头主导，部分品类中，国际品牌份额回落，当前中国品牌整体份额较低。渠道体系中 线上发展迅速但线下仍占主导，电商平台多元且存在当地巨头，线下渠道连锁化率相对较高。 从市场规模、竞争格局、渠道体系三个角度进行分析，认为拉美家电市场整体发展趋势向好， 品类拓展潜力较大，存在进入的机会，同时电商崛起给中国家电企业进入提供更高效的路径。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 42 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 全球视野看家电之拉美：扬帆起航 [Table_Summary2] 为何研究拉美？ 拉美市场于中国家电出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.451 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98 million, down 15.0% year-on-year [2][5]. - As of the end of December 2024, the total number of stores reached 3,031, comprising 1,591 self-operated stores and 1,440 franchised stores, covering 303 cities across 28 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China [2][5]. - The company experienced a significant decline in total sales volume, which decreased by 16.8% year-on-year, with average order consumption down 4.4% [7]. - The company closed 785 stores in 2024, with self-operated stores decreasing by 7.5% and franchised stores by 31.3% [7]. - The gross profit margin improved by approximately 4.4 percentage points to 56.8%, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs and an increase in the proportion of direct sales [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 2.451 billion, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, while net profit was 98 million, down 15.0% year-on-year [2][5]. - The average store efficiency for self-operated stores was approximately 840,000, a decline of 9.3% year-on-year [7]. Store Operations - The company closed 785 stores in 2024, with a total of 3,031 stores remaining at the end of the year [5][7]. - The number of self-operated stores decreased by 7.5%, while franchised stores saw a decline of 31.3% [7]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin increased to 56.8%, driven by lower raw material costs and a higher proportion of direct sales [7]. - Selling and distribution expenses accounted for 40.4% of revenue, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 168 million, 216 million, and 258 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 20, and 17 times [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.026 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12.4%, and a net profit of 1.684 billion, down 28.89% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross margin improved by 0.7 percentage points to 27.0%, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin products [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from a potential valuation recovery as the real estate market stabilizes and municipal improvements occur [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline across its core business segments, with plastic pipe revenue at 22.8 billion, down 7.2%, and building materials revenue at 2.3 billion, down 20% [8]. - The total sales volume for pipes was 2.4829 million tons, a decrease of 6.2%, with average prices falling by 1.1% to 0.92 million per ton [8]. - The company’s gross margin for the pipe business was 28.7%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [8]. Market Position and Strategy - As a leading player in the pipe industry, the company has established a strong market position through scale and channel resources, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge [8]. - The company is focusing on its core business while reducing capital expenditures, particularly in overseas ventures and solar energy investments [8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stabilization in revenue as the real estate market bottoms out and municipal projects improve, with additional growth expected from agricultural and industrial pipeline segments [8]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is approximately 2.2 billion, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 5, indicating a relatively low valuation [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 关税争端下的煤炭后市展望？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，美国宣布了对中国的加征关税。历史上需求预期大幅走弱时期（如 2018 年和 2020 年） 能源表现如何？商品层面，能源品价格虽因需求前景恶化均有下跌，但是和内需相关性更大的 动力煤相对而言跌幅更小；权益层面，虽然 2018 年关税落地期能源品权益表现均走弱，但相 对大盘有一定的超额收益。展望 2025 年，即使关税争端致煤炭需求走弱，但考虑到煤炭商品 和内需的相关性更大&权益端红利配置属性，板块表现仍有望在不确定性增大的市场环境中走 出其独特的防御性。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 research.95579.com ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] "织"道系列之运动制造 2 月跟踪：订单环比提 速，短期内关税加征预计压制制造利润率 报告要点 1-2 月运动制造订单景气度延续向好趋势，环比 2024Q4 多有所提速。下游美国服装行业库销比恢复 正常，去库进程已行至尾声，品牌端多数公司库存较为健康充足，同时 2 月美国服装零售承压，消费 信心延续走弱，预计后续补库动力较弱。此外，特朗普开启"加征关税 2.0"，本轮对中国输美产品累 计加征关税预计达到 54%，并对东南亚国家加征不同程度的对等关税。本轮对全球加征对等关税预 计在中短期内影响纺织制造公司订单和利润，但长期仍有利于具备产业链优势的企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title "织"道系列之运动 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 出口承压对地产周期有两个传导路径，一是经济层面的量价回落将通过就业、收入、实际利率 等渠道压制行业需求端；二是经济增长目标约束下，内需政策在对冲外需风险时可能更为积极； 经济效应和政策效应孰强孰弱，主要取决于政策目标和政策力度，所以即便短期内不考虑行业 自身周期律，地产在出口承压时期的演绎路径也并非定数。历史上的实证数据基本符合上述规 律，当前地产行业仍有调整压力，政策依然偏防风险，较难期待趋势性的量价齐升。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title] 出口承压时期的地产演绎路径 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 1 [Table_Title 出口承压时期的地产演绎路径 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标明显更为积极，市场预期有所改善，量价脉冲虽季节性回落，但仍维持一 定韧性。趋势反转还需时间，但量的急跌基本结束，房价距 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨凯盛科技（600552.SH） [Table_Title] 收入小幅下降，显示材料改善明显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报：2024 年实现收入 48.94 亿元，同比下滑 2.3%；归属净利润 1.4 亿元， 同比增长 30.8%；扣非归属净利润亏损 24 万，同期亏损 5243 万。 折合 2024Q4 实现收入 13.2 亿元，同比增长 7.3%；归属净利润 0.28 亿元，同比增长 154.6%； 扣非归属净利润亏损 60 万元，同期亏损 5928 万。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 李浩 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490520080026 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 凯盛科技（600552.SH） cjzqdt11111 公司发布 2024 年年报：2024 年实现收入 48.94 亿元，同比下滑 2.3%；归属净利润 1.4 亿元， 同比增长 30.8%；扣非归属净利润亏损 24 万，同期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate revenue of 11.26 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.84 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2][5]. - The company has shifted its focus from domestic trade to a combination of domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its resilience through capacity leasing and demonstrating shareholder returns through high dividends [10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 11.26 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.84 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.1 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [2][5]. Business Performance - Domestic trade revenue is expected to decline significantly due to seasonal characteristics and decreased freight rates, with a projected revenue of 9.5 billion, down 15.2% year-on-year. The domestic freight rate index (PDCI) averaged 1103, down 12.3% year-on-year [10]. - The foreign trade sector is experiencing high demand, leading to increased charter rates, with the average charter rate for 4,400 TEU vessels rising by 90.2% year-on-year [10]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has managed to reduce operating costs by 10.4% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased fuel costs and an increase in the proportion of owned vessels from 69.8% in 2023 to 72.7% in 2024 [10]. - The company has also achieved a significant reduction in period expenses, down 49.2% year-on-year, through cost-cutting measures and increased dollar-denominated income from leasing operations [10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a rebound in domestic trade in 2025, with improved supply-demand dynamics. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.93 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.7, 11.1, and 10.5 [10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60%, leading to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.4%, and 5.7% for 2025-2027 [10].

丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 行业困境中公司积极自救，盘活库存，处置资产；融资端积极争取各类金融机构支持，新增融 资，落地经营性物业贷；股东端深国资与深铁集团给予"真金白银"的有力支持，提供股东借 款、协助公司处置资产、受让项目股权、协调各类金融资源助力公司融资。行业整体承压背景 下，公司核心要务在于维持资金链平衡，在渡过流动性压力、成功穿越周期的前提下，公司存 续价值仍相对突出。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 薛梦莹 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490520120002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 公司研究丨点评报告丨万科 A（000002.SZ） [Table_Title] 业绩承压，保障资金链安全是当务之急 ——万科 A2024 年报点评 1 万科 A（000002.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 业绩承压，保障资金链安全是当务之急 2] ——万科 A2024 年报点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司公 ...