固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 从曲线与成交看地方债投资价值（上） ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（十四） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 地方债估值收益率受剩余期限、债券类型、特殊条款等多因素影响。地方债具备的防御属性使 其在 2025 年收益率震荡上行的市场行情中表现稳健。且地方债持有收益胜率保持稳定。各地 区发行以及存量地方债的期限结构存在相似性，地方债存量结构中以十年期居多。而新增专项 债债券类型发行占比相对较高。增值税差异导致新老券收益率受地区、期限影响而存在差异。 地方债提前兑付现象通常会为债券持有人带来资本利得。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 从曲线与成交看地方债投资价值（上） 2] ——走在债市曲线之前系 ...

Core Insights - The Red Horse strategy emphasizes a diversified and sustainable income structure, focusing on future dividend growth potential rather than just current dividend levels [4][7] - The strategy combines qualitative and quantitative methods to screen for Red Horse industries and stocks, requiring healthy cash flow, good profit quality, and low capital expenditure [4][9] - The performance of the Red Horse portfolio has significantly outperformed major indices during the backtesting period, with a cumulative return of 59.41% compared to 27.03% for the CSI 300 index [9] Red Horse Industry Screening - The screening framework for Red Horse industries focuses on sectors where long-term capital expenditure trends are declining, leading to improved cash flow [7][16] - Potential Red Horse industries are identified based on moderate net profit growth rates and declining long-term averages, while excluding industries with rapidly declining recent performance [8][32] - Emerging Red Horse industries include energy metals, special steel, cement, logistics, general equipment, automotive services, and cosmetics, among others [8][32] Red Horse Stock Selection - The selection of Red Horse stocks prioritizes companies with healthy cash flows, strong profit quality, and low capital expenditures, indicating a solid financial foundation and sustainable dividend potential [9][24] - The Red Horse portfolio is divided into two categories: the Red Horse portfolio and the Red Horse preemptive portfolio, with different rebalancing dates based on earnings report disclosures [9][37] - The Red Horse preemptive portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 70% from April 15, 2025, to January 12, 2026, outperforming other major indices [9][37]

——如何看待消费级 3D 打印需求裂变 行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 智造进化，妙"印"生花 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 纵观消费级 3D 打印的发展历程，是一个硬件、软件、生态不断完善，使用成本和学习门槛不 断降低的迭代史；2020 年是消费级 3D 打印元年，硬件端的持续降本提质，软件端从无人机衍 生出的运动控制补偿算法及 AI 技术的赋能，生态端的持续完善共同催化消费级 3D 打印从"能 用"进步至"好用"，市场开启增长；2026 年有望成为行业奇点时刻，AI 大模型在建模环节的导 入，将极大程度降低学习门槛及使用门槛，将产品推向更广阔的大众市场，从"好用"进一步迭 代至"爱用"，B 端持续降本提质，G 端政策推动，C 端快速渗透，开启千亿市场的星辰大海。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 创新链系列——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2026 年 1 月跟踪 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 伴随着创新药企业 A/H 上市和增发充沛资金，二级市场创新药估值重塑和一级退出通道打通带 来中国生物医药投融资生态逐渐走向正循环，创新药对外 BD 涌现为研发投入注入新的资金来 源并拉动行业整体研发投入意愿，中国创新药研发投入景气度或渐趋改善，随之带来创新药产 业链进入新一轮景气周期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 万梦蝶 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 创新链系列2] ——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2026 年 1 月跟踪 [Table_Summary2] 创新药上市通道变宽，IPO 募集资金充沛研发投入 创新药企业港股 IPO 热潮重现且在持续升温，未盈利企业科创板上市通道打开，创新药上市通 道变宽。医药 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector for Q4 2025 is approximately 23.27 billion, down from 37.36 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a decrease of about 14.09 billion. The concentration of holdings has further increased, with a higher proportion in storage and vertical applications. Overall, the allocation ratio for the computer industry has reached a historically low level, indicating limited downside potential. With the acceleration of AI application commercialization, the sector is expected to see a recovery [2][5][6][35]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holdings and Allocation - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector has continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 1.6% in Q4 2025, down 0.7 percentage points from Q3 2025. The heavy allocation ratios over the past year have been -2.8%, -3.4%, -3.6%, and -3.8%, indicating a deepening decline [19][20]. Sector Performance and Fund Flow - The absolute value of holdings in various sub-sectors has generally decreased, with increased pressure from fund outflows. The top five sub-sectors by market value in Q4 2025 are IT infrastructure (2.8%), government IT (2.3%), industrial software (2.1%), cybersecurity (1.7%), and automotive IT (1.7%). The government IT sector saw a significant increase of 0.6%, while energy IT experienced a notable decline of 1.3% [6][34]. Concentration of Holdings - The concentration of holdings in the computer sector has significantly increased, reaching a new high. The CR10 and CR5 concentration ratios rose from 65.9% to 69.8% and from 49.1% to 57.8%, respectively, indicating a trend towards increased concentration of fund holdings [7][43]. Future Outlook - The application and computing power chains are expected to continue attracting institutional investments, with a focus on structural opportunities amid sector rotation. The current optimistic narrative surrounding AI is expected to drive demand for computing power, particularly as AI applications begin to materialize in various high-value scenarios [8][27][28]. Valuation Metrics - As of February 3, 2026, the latest PE-TTM for the Jiangsu computer index is 68.5 times, which is at the 91st percentile since 2016. In comparison, the latest PE-TTM for the CSI 300 is 13.3 times, at the 78th percentile [48][50].

行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 美光科技：乘 AI 之东风，存储龙头高速增长 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美光科技是全球存储的龙头企业，以 2025 年统计口径看，公司 DRAM、NAND Flash 全球市 占率分别为 23%、13%。在 45 年的发展史中始终保持产品的推出处于业内领先水平；公司以 IDM 的模式围绕核心存储持续展开产品布局，现拥有 DDR、LPDDR、GDDR、HBM、NAND Flash 等主要存储产品矩阵。近年来，AI 对于存储需求的持续拉动，助力公司 Cloud Memory 营收呈高速增长之势。就新产能规划而言，公司现已启动系列晶圆厂的建设工作，我们认为伴 随着公司新产能的逐步建成落地，美光有望长期在存储行业处于领先地位。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 张梦杰 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490523120002 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% ...

Group 1: National Subsidy Policies - The central government has timely issued "two new" subsidies and extended loan interest subsidy policies, with an expanded scope and scale, expected to boost consumption from both supply and demand sides[3] - The national consumption subsidy scale for Q1 2026 is projected at 62.5 billion, down from 81 billion in Q1 2025, mainly due to reduced subsidy amounts in appliances and automobiles[7] - The loan interest subsidy policy has been extended, with the maximum subsidy per loan increased from 1 million to 10 million, and the cancellation of previous limits on single loan amounts[8] Group 2: Local Consumption Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the "Happy Shopping Spring Festival" initiative, encouraging local governments to stimulate holiday markets, with 12 provinces already implementing consumption voucher activities[9] - Local governments are expected to issue consumption vouchers totaling over 3 billion for the Spring Festival, with Guangdong and Zhejiang leading in financial support[24] Group 3: Financial Backing and Debt Issuance - The issuance of special government bonds is being expedited, with a forecast of 500 billion for 2026, including 200 billion for equipment updates and 300 billion for old-for-new consumption[30] - As of February 6, 2026, local general bonds and project special bonds have seen significant increases, with 136.3 billion and 432.5 billion issued respectively, indicating strong local government engagement[9] Group 4: Consumption Trends and Expectations - The service sector is expected to show strong performance, with tourism consumption significantly increasing during the Spring Festival, driven by a longer holiday and pent-up demand[11] - The CPI for Q1 2026 is anticipated to rise due to seasonal price increases, particularly in pork and premium liquor, indicating a potential upward trend in consumer prices[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [9] Core Insights - The computer sector experienced a significant pullback, with an overall decline of 4.31%, ranking 28th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, and accounting for 7.03% of total market turnover. AI infrastructure-related stocks were notably active [2][6][17] - The report highlights the inflation of computing infrastructure, the emergence of space computing, and advancements in brain-computer interface technology as key trends [7][22] - The launch of the AI Agent social platform, MoltBook, marks a significant development in the 2C entry and high-value scenarios, indicating a potential acceleration in the commercialization of AI agents [8][50] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector saw a substantial decline of 4.31% last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index also experiencing a slight pullback of 0.44% [6][17] - AI infrastructure-related stocks showed notable activity, with specific companies like Wangsu Technology and Hongjing Technology seeing significant gains [19][20] Key Trends - The report identifies three main trends: inflation in computing infrastructure, the development of space computing, and advancements in brain-computer interface technology [7][22][31] - The "Star Computing·Intelligent Connection" seminar held in Beijing emphasizes collaborative efforts to advance space computing technology [31][34] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-value scenarios in both 2C and 2B sectors, including healthcare, taxation, legal services, coding, office applications, advertising, and e-commerce [8][30] - The introduction of personal assistants like Clawdbot is expected to drive localized deployment demand in households [8][30] Brain-Computer Interface Developments - The National Medical Products Administration approved two projects for revising standards related to brain-computer interface medical devices, indicating a favorable policy environment for the industry [38][41] - The rapid approval of these standards reflects the urgent need for regulatory frameworks to support the high-quality development of brain-computer interface technologies [41][42] AI Agent Commercialization - The report anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year for AI agents, with significant advancements in their capabilities and potential applications across various sectors [50][54] - The emergence of platforms like MoltBook demonstrates the evolving role of AI agents from mere tools to autonomous entities capable of social interaction and collaboration [50][54]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the overall A-share pre-announcement rate has improved, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for 2025 [2][5][15] - As of February 3, 2026, approximately 3,000 out of 5,478 A-share listed companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 54.0% and a pre-announcement rate of 37.0%, an increase from 33.7% in 2024 [5][15] - The number of companies expecting profit increases in 2025 is 623, while 378 companies anticipate profit decreases [5][15] Group 2 - In terms of market style, large-cap companies are expected to show better profitability than small-cap companies, with the ChiNext board having a higher pre-announcement rate [6][18] - The net profit maximum fluctuation for major indices in 2025 is projected to be 55.2% for CSI 300, 82.8% for SSE 50, 54.7% for CSI 500, and 50.8% for CSI 1000 [6][18] - The pre-announcement rates for these indices are 63.2% for CSI 300, 83.3% for SSE 50, 59.0% for CSI 500, and 49.4% for CSI 1000 [6][18] Group 3 - Industry-wise, the defense and electronics sectors have shown a high level of disclosure and pre-announcement rates, indicating a strong possibility of improved performance [7][21] - As of February 3, 2026, the highest disclosure rates among primary industries are coal (81%), real estate (78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (74%), and computer (72%) [7][21] - The highest pre-announcement rates are seen in non-bank financials (96.2%), non-ferrous metals (67.6%), automotive (52.7%), and steel (50.0%) [7][21] Group 4 - The report anticipates a gradual bull market in 2026, driven by a recovery in profitability and favorable liquidity conditions [8] - The valuation of stocks is expected to remain near historical averages, with low interest rates continuing to provide upward momentum for valuations [8] - The report suggests focusing on technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up as key investment directions [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 5.26% increase in the fourth week of 2026, ranking third among major industries in the Yangtze River region; since the beginning of 2026, the sector has risen by 5.42%, ranking sixteenth [2][3] - Microsoft continues to experience high growth in its cloud business, with Azure revenue increasing by 39% year-over-year, and a significant increase in data center capacity [4] - Meta's advertising business has benefited from AI enhancements, leading to a 24% year-over-year increase in advertising revenue, with a capital expenditure guidance of $115 to $135 billion for 2026 [4] - Corning's optical communication business is growing rapidly, with a 35% year-over-year increase in revenue, driven by a long-term agreement with Meta worth up to $6 billion [5][6] Summary by Sections Microsoft - In FY26Q2, Microsoft cloud revenue reached $51.5 billion, up 26% year-over-year; Azure and other cloud services grew by 39% [4] - Microsoft expects Azure revenue growth of 37%-38% in FY26Q3 [4] Meta - Meta's Family of Apps advertising revenue was $58.1 billion in Q4 2025, up 24% year-over-year, with AI driving both volume and pricing increases [4] - Meta's capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was $22.1 billion, a 49% increase year-over-year [4] Corning - Corning reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.22 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, with optical communication revenue growing by 24% [5] - Corning's long-term agreement with Meta is expected to support its expansion in the U.S. [5][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom for operators; for optical modules, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication are highlighted [6]