Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - On December 30, the company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkou Salt Lake from its controlling shareholder, China Salt Lake Group, for approximately 4.605 billion yuan. After the acquisition, Wenkou Salt Lake will become a subsidiary of the company, consolidating its financials [2][4]. - The acquisition is part of a strategic plan by China Salt Lake Group to optimize and integrate resources, aiming to establish a world-class salt lake industry group by 2030 [10]. - The resource integration is expected to enhance the company's lithium and potassium production capacity significantly, with lithium rights capacity increasing to nearly 70,000 tons LCE and potassium fertilizer capacity rising to approximately 5.15 million tons [10]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in lithium and potassium production, with lithium production costs around 40,000-45,000 yuan per ton LCE and potassium fertilizer costs between 1,200-1,500 yuan per ton, positioning it favorably in the global cost curve [10]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 668 million yuan, 692 million yuan, and 745 million yuan from 2026 to 2028, supported by rising lithium and potassium prices [10]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 15.134 billion yuan in 2024 to 27.389 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding increase in net profit from 4.914 billion yuan to 12.869 billion yuan during the same period [17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.88 yuan in 2024 to 2.28 yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [17]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to decrease from 18.68 in 2024 to 12.35 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [17].

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 伴随着创新药企业 A/H 上市和增发充沛资金，二级市场创新药估值重塑和一级退出通道打通带 来中国生物医药投融资生态逐渐走向正循环，创新药对外 BD 涌现为研发投入注入新的资金来 源并拉动行业整体研发投入意愿，中国创新药研发投入景气度或渐趋改善，随之带来创新药产 业链进入新一轮景气周期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 创新链系列——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2025 年 12 月跟踪及全年总结 彭英骐 万梦蝶 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 医疗保健 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 创新链系列2] ——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 2025 年 12 月跟踪及全年总结 [Table_Summary2] 2025 年 12 月前瞻性指标趋势 1、IPO 募集资金：2025 年 12 月医药港股 I ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform for marine power systems in China, benefiting from the recovery of the shipbuilding industry and the transition towards clean energy vessels, which is expected to enhance profitability [3][7] - The removal of the 301 policy pressure is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in global shipbuilding orders, with a notable 79% year-on-year increase in December orders [6][21] - The company has been expanding its engine production capacity, with expectations for continued growth in the delivery of low-speed engines and an increase in the proportion of dual-fuel engines, which will further boost profitability [8][72] Summary by Relevant Sections Shipbuilding Industry - The shipbuilding sector is expected to experience an upward turning point as the pressure from the 301 policy is lifted, with a significant increase in new orders and ship prices anticipated [6][17] - The global shipbuilding new orders for 2025 are projected to decline by 24.2% year-on-year, but the removal of the 301 policy is expected to lead to a recovery in orders, particularly for oil tankers, which saw a 284.5% year-on-year increase in November [6][25] - Long-term trends indicate a high proportion of aging vessels, creating substantial demand for vessel replacements and upgrades, driven by stricter environmental regulations [33][37] Company Overview - The company, backed by China Shipbuilding Group, has a significant market share in marine engine orders and is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the shipbuilding sector [7][56] - The company's revenue has been consistently growing, with the diesel power business contributing significantly to its performance, and the gross profit margin for diesel power products has been increasing [58][63] - The company is also focusing on expanding its dual-fuel engine offerings, which are becoming a crucial revenue source as the industry shifts towards cleaner energy solutions [75]

[Table_Title] 从海外燃机厂商跟踪看燃机景气度 联合研究丨专题报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 西门子能源、三菱重工与 GEV 2025Q3 业绩均实现强劲增长，营收、利润、订单等核心经营指 标全面向好，三家企业均顺势上调业绩展望或全年目标，后续增长确定性凸显。从核心业务支 撑来看，三家的燃机主业均呈现良性发展态势，新签订单持续攀升，在手订单储备充裕，有效 支撑营收稳步提升，且区域市场布局各有侧重、优势凸显。作为全球燃气轮机市场的主导力量， 三者合计占据超 70%产能，面对激增的行业需求，正同步推进产能扩张。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 王贺嘉 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUX462 屈奇 杨继虎 杨文建 SAC：S0490524070003 SAC：S0490525040001 SAC：S0490525070003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market decline is due to the constraint of the "impossible triangle," and before the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based opportunity. It is expected that the long - end yield will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. The long - end yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2.2% - 2.4%, and the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity in the second half of the first quarter of 2026 [2][8][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Bond Market's "Impossible Triangle" Since the second half of 2025, the bond market has been falling continuously. After the People's Bank of China's unexpected "hawkish" Treasury bond trading operation in November 2025, the market is worried about the carrying pressure of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds, and the supply of ultra - long bonds has become the core contradiction. From early November 2025 to January 7, 2026, the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose by about 20 basis points, and the price of the ultra - long - term Treasury bond futures (TL) fell by nearly 6 yuan. The current market decline is due to the "impossible triangle" constraint, that is, the following three cannot hold simultaneously: fiscal policy continues to lengthen the debt issuance duration, the central bank does not buy long - duration Treasury bonds, and does not change the interest - rate risk sensitivity index restrictions for banks [4][15]. 3.2 Outlook for the People's Bank of China's Treasury Bond Trading Operations in 2026 It is expected that the People's Bank of China will continue to mainly buy short - duration Treasury bonds, maintaining a "high - frequency and small - volume" monthly operation mode, and guiding the market to reduce irrational expectations and excessive attention to this tool. Treasury bond trading will return to a normal and regular liquidity management tool, and its impact on the bond market will be neutral. Overseas experience shows that large - scale purchases of long - term bonds usually occur when the policy rate drops to a very low level or even zero. Since the domestic policy rate still has a 140 - basis - point space, it is too early for unconventional policies. The current Treasury bond trading operations of the Chinese central bank are more similar to Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) rather than Quantitative Easing (QE) [5][19][20]. 3.3 Outlook for Fiscal Debt Issuance Duration in 2026 Theoretically, when interest rates continue to adjust, local governments will shorten the debt issuance duration. However, this process may face two problems. First, it is a slow process for local governments to actively shorten the duration. The proportion of new local bonds in the stock of local bonds is not high, and the increase in interest expenditure caused by long - duration debt issuance is not significant in the short term, so the possibility of local governments significantly shortening the duration in the short term is low. Second, the term arrangement of local government bond issuance has high flexibility, and the Ministry of Finance does not restrict the scale and quantity of long - term local bond issuance. Therefore, the overall duration of local government stock debt is difficult to significantly shorten in a short time [23]. 3.4 Views on Adjusting Banks' Interest - Rate Sensitivity Indicators Although the adjustment of interest - rate sensitivity indicators can increase the bond - allocation capacity of large banks to some extent, the maturity mismatch trend between the asset and liability ends of banks has been deepening in recent years, and the adjustment of indicators is difficult to significantly expand the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds. According to the revision of the regulatory standards for interest - rate risk in the banking book by the Basel Committee in July 2024, the interest - rate parallel upward shock parameter should be lowered from 250BP to 225BP. Based on the data of the six major banks at the end of 2024, this parameter adjustment can release about 1.23% of the indicator space on average, corresponding to about 172.2 billion yuan of Tier - 1 capital. In the scenario of still considering a 250 - basis - point extreme shock and calculating based on the modified duration of 8.35 years of the stock local government bonds, it is expected to add about 824.568 billion yuan of bond - allocation capacity for large banks. However, the maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities of banks is still deepening, with the liability side showing a trend of current - account and non - bank deposits, and the asset side showing a long - term trend, so the ability of banks to undertake long - term bonds is still limited [35]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market The bond market still faces the constraint of the "impossible triangle." Before the supply narrative of ultra - long bonds is fully priced, there is no obvious opportunity to bottom - fish in the bond market. The view of a weak and volatile long - end yield is maintained, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond may be further adjusted to 2.4%. After the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds is fully digested by the market, the bond market may have a phased repair opportunity, which may occur in the second half of the first quarter of 2026. At that time, the dynamic balance among fiscal debt issuance rhythm, central bank operation attitude, and bank allocation behavior will be the key to determining the market direction [8][41].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨鸿路钢构（002541.SZ） [Table_Title] 产量同比高增，关注 2026 年经营拐点 research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 分析师及联系人 1 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年全年经营数据，2025 年 1 月-12 月钢结构产品产量约 502.07 万吨，较 2024 年同期增长 11.30%。其中 2025 年第四季度钢结构产品产量约 141.05 万吨，同比增长 11.9%。 风险提示 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S04905250800 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company, China Chemical (601117.SH), has a broad layout in the chemical industry and is expected to contribute to performance in 2026 due to the recovery of the chemical sector driven by anti-involution trends [5][11]. - The company's asset quality is significantly undervalued, with approximately 80% of new orders coming from chemical engineering, and a good repayment situation, indicating a strong financial position [11]. - The company's operational quality is high, with a mid-term dividend reflecting shareholder returns, and an expected improvement in performance due to rising chemical product prices [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - China Chemical has signed new orders worth 352.6 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with chemical engineering orders increasing by 14% [11]. - The company has a total share capital of 610.688 million shares, with a current stock price of 7.75 yuan [7]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.346 billion yuan in 2025, with projected profits of 7.058 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.806 billion yuan in 2027 [11]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.46, 6.71, and 6.06 respectively, indicating the company is still undervalued [11]. Market Position - The company has a significant presence in the chemical industry, with projects like the nylon new materials project expected to break technical barriers and create a complete nylon 66 chip industry chain [11]. - The company has a strong cash position with 38 billion yuan in cash and 17 billion yuan in interest-bearing debt, providing a safety margin [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total electricity generation of 1,269.32 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.32%. The on-grid electricity volume is projected to be 1,258.58 billion kWh, also up by 13.36% year-on-year [6][12] - The water inflow in the Lancang River basin is expected to be 15% higher than the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in electricity generation. The company anticipates a strong performance in the fourth quarter, with a projected electricity generation of 306.66 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.01% [2][12] - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the full operation of TB Hydropower Station and Huanliangbao Hydropower Station, which will enhance overall efficiency and growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation Performance - In 2025, the company is projected to complete a hydropower generation of 916.49 billion kWh, a 10.35% increase year-on-year, with the fourth quarter alone generating 291.66 billion kWh, up 17.26% year-on-year [2][12] - The company’s overall electricity generation is expected to grow by 13.32% year-on-year, supported by improved water inflow and operational efficiency [6][12] Financial Outlook - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 0.50 yuan, 0.50 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.30, 18.13, and 17.26 [12][16] - The financial performance is expected to benefit from reduced costs and optimized financial expenses, despite potential pressures from market electricity prices [12] Growth Strategy - The company is actively pursuing diversification by investing in renewable energy and thermal power projects, aiming for sustainable development through a "water-wind-solar integration" approach [12] - The company has increased its renewable energy capacity to 5.96 million kW, a rise of 2.26 million kW compared to the end of 2024 [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The Chinese large model industry is transitioning from a "hundred model war" to a tier of leading players by 2025, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax representing different commercialization paths. Both companies are set to IPO in Hong Kong on January 8 and 9, 2026, marking them as the first publicly listed large model companies globally, which serves as a significant industry benchmark [4][19] - The development paradigm of large models is moving into a new phase, shifting from early parameter competition and task performance comparisons to a core focus on a "scene-data-model" positive cycle. The ability to deeply root in real scenarios, provide smoother product experiences, and foster tighter ecological collaboration will determine competitive advantages in the next stage [4][9] Summary by Sections Historical Review: Genetic Differences Determine Commercialization Paths - Zhipu AI, founded in 2019, is one of the earliest companies in China to develop large language models (LLMs) and the first to release a self-developed large model. Its development is characterized by a strong platform thinking and aims to maximize the utilization of its technical assets through an ecosystem of developers [7][20] - MiniMax, established in 2021, has a strong "commercial product" gene, with a team background in gaming and content communities, giving it advantages in user experience (UX), retention rates, and multimodal interactions [7][42] Current Status: Commercialization Progress of Zhipu and MiniMax - Zhipu focuses on general large model capabilities, emphasizing deep integration with enterprise business processes, positioning itself as an "AI infrastructure provider." In contrast, MiniMax aims to productize model capabilities and build a user ecosystem around native AI applications, positioning itself as an "AI native content and interaction platform" [8] - Zhipu's revenue growth relies on deep engagement with B-end clients and long-term partnerships, while MiniMax's commercialization depends on user scale and activity on the C-end, utilizing subscription models and value-added services for monetization [8] Future: Moving Towards a "Scene-Data-Model" Positive Cycle - The key to future development is constructing a closed loop driven by real scene demands, generating high-quality data that continuously feeds back to optimize model capabilities, ultimately serving the scenes more accurately and creating a dual value loop of commercial and technical benefits [9] - Both Zhipu and MiniMax have entered the "scene-data-model" positive cycle, with Zhipu focusing on B-end clients and edge entry points, while MiniMax concentrates on creative content generation and enterprise automation [9]

世界经济与海外市场丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接双宽松 ——美国 2026 年经济展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 特朗普 2.0 关税和移民等政策力度空前，但美国经济并未失速下滑，整体呈现经济韧性较强、 就业弱平衡、通胀温和的特征。展望 2026 年：1）货币政策方面——美国再通胀压力有限，就 业市场弱平衡的背景下，预计美联储将于 2026 年二季度再度开启降息，全年或降息 50BP 左 右；2）财政政策方面——美国 2026 财年赤字率或提升至 7%，主要用于减税、军事和国土安 全领域，财政支出重点在于对家庭、企业部门的减税；3）双宽托举之下，私人消费和 AI 相关 投资或是 2026 年经济增长主力，但由于政策的时滞效应，经济整体或呈前低后高态势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research ...