丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 49 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股四季度初上涨与近期调整，主要反映年末交易性资金的配置行为波动。10 月上旬银行指 数基金获得大幅流入，10 月 17 日单周净流入金额高达 82 亿元，创近年来周度历史新高。但 最近连续五周，银行指数基金持续净流出，并且近两周流出力度扩大，本周净流出 26 亿元。我 们预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为 TPL 账户，预 计保险等机构年底也存在兑现收益的需要。我们认为跨年节点过后，配置力量将重新推升银行 股估值及银行指数基金规模。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the airport service industry [8]. Core Insights - The introduction of foreign participants in the new round of duty-free tenders at Shanghai Pudong, Hongqiao, and Beijing Capital airports marks a significant change in the competitive landscape [2][4]. - Dufry, a global leader in travel retail, has entered the bidding process, indicating a shift towards a more diversified and competitive market in China's duty-free sector [4][21]. - The bidding rules now allow only one segment win per bidder, breaking the previous monopoly held by China Duty Free Group [14][21]. - The overall commission rates for duty-free contracts are expected to increase unless there is a substantial growth in sales volumes [2][6]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Tender Competition Intensifies - Major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen a significant drop in international passenger numbers from 2020 to 2022, leading to the expiration of restructured duty-free contracts [4][16]. - The new bidding process allows for foreign companies to participate, which is a departure from the previous exclusive operations by domestic firms [14][21]. Changes in Duty-Free Contract Commission Rates - The new contracts at Shanghai Airport utilize a "fixed rent + additional commission" model, which is a high minimum guarantee combined with lower commission rates [6][40]. - If the sales volume at Shanghai Pudong Airport reaches 15 billion yuan, the comprehensive commission rate could drop to approximately 22%, aligning with previous contract levels [6][40]. Airport Fundamentals and Recovery - The airport sector is undergoing significant fixed asset investments due to historical external shocks, with a stable recovery in passenger volumes expected [7][43]. - Airports like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are projected to have absolute yield value amidst improving mid-term operational data [7][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - Since late November, thermal coal prices have significantly declined due to abnormal weather, accelerated production resumption, and concerns over potential electricity price reductions in 2026. Despite the recent rapid price drop, the report anticipates an improvement in coal demand in 2026, with limited supply capacity utilization, suggesting a potential increase in the price baseline [2][7]. - The report emphasizes that while coal prices are currently under pressure due to weak demand, factors such as cold weather and snowfall could stabilize and potentially increase prices in the future [6][31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 3.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking last among all industries [30]. - As of December 12, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 745 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][58]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report outlines that the recent decline in coal prices is attributed to several factors: warmer weather leading to lower electricity consumption, increased coal supply from resumed production, and concerns regarding electricity price negotiations for 2026 [7]. - The demand outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of stable or slightly positive growth in thermal power generation, despite potential long-term impacts from energy storage technologies [7][8]. - On the supply side, the report notes that while there may be new production capacity in 2026, overall supply growth is expected to remain limited due to ongoing regulatory controls on excessive production [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a balanced risk-reward profile, recommending stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy for their strong fundamentals and dividend potential [7][8]. - It also highlights the potential for higher returns from currently undervalued stocks if demand improves and coal prices rise unexpectedly, suggesting companies like Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry as potential targets [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong overall performance this week, with brokerage firms experiencing an increase in market activity, maintaining historical highs. It is expected that the sector will continue to see high growth trends in earnings through 2025, suggesting a focus on the sector's future allocation value [2][4]. - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The long-term return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve, leading to a potential acceleration in valuation recovery. The overall cost-effectiveness of allocations is gradually increasing, indicating a revaluation of the sector is underway [2][4]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies with stable earnings growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have clear advantages in business models and market positions. Additionally, companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings are also recommended based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.8% this week, with an excess return of 0.9% relative to the CSI 300, ranking high in the industry [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has risen by 6.7%, but with an excess return of -9.7% compared to the CSI 300, ranking lower in the industry [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 19,530.44 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 15.14%, with a daily turnover rate of 2.03%, up by 26.88 basis points [5]. Key Industry News & Company Announcements - China Life's cumulative total premium income has exceeded 700 billion yuan [6]. - Guosen Securities plans to distribute cash dividends totaling approximately 1.024 billion yuan, accounting for 11.21% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [6]. - Industrial Securities announced a mid-term profit distribution plan, with a total cash dividend of 432 million yuan based on a total share capital of 8.636 billion shares [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The U.S. announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, aiming for normalization of relations with Minsk, which may have limited direct impact on global potash supply-demand balance [2][6] - Potash demand remains strong while supply growth is limited, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [2][12] - Key companies to watch in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Oriental Tower, and Zangge Mining [2] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 13, 2025, U.S. Special Envoy John Coale met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, announcing the lifting of sanctions on potash fertilizers [6] Market Dynamics - The price of cyclical products is primarily determined by supply and demand rather than costs. The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. is not expected to significantly alter the global potash supply-demand balance but may reduce Belarusian potash costs [12] - Belarus is the third-largest potash producer globally, with a market share of approximately 16%. Sanctions in 2022 led to a significant reduction in supply and a surge in global potash prices [12] Supply Recovery - Belarusian potash production, which fell to 5.408 million tons in 2022 due to sanctions, has been recovering, reaching 11.559 million tons in 2024, close to its historical peak of 13 million tons in 2021 [12] - The lifting of U.S. sanctions is expected to have a limited overall impact, as Belarusian potash costs remain high due to ongoing EU and Lithuanian sanctions [12] Demand Outlook - The demand for potash is expected to remain robust, driven by high prices of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, with potash prices being competitive [12] - In the first half of 2025, potash exports from Canada, Russia, and Belarus increased by 26%, 5%, and 18% respectively, indicating strong demand [12] Capital Expenditure and Supply Constraints - The potash industry has seen limited capital expenditure due to prolonged periods of low prices, leading to constrained future supply growth [12] - The cyclical nature of the industry means that prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics than by production costs [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 解码威士忌系列报告二：透过进口数据，拆解中 国威士忌发展趋势 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 纵观近十年，中国进口威士忌实现了量价齐升，苏威、日威逐步培养起国内消费者对威士忌产 品的认知。2025 年，中国威士忌进口量首次超过白兰地进口量，问鼎进口烈酒新王。本文通过 分析烈酒进口数据，探索进口威士忌量、价、结构的变化，梳理威士忌发展脉络。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] research.95579.com 1 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 解码威士忌系列报告二：透过进口数据，拆解中 2] 国威士忌发展趋势 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 中国进口威士忌十年间实现量价齐升 纵观近十年，中国进口威士忌实现了量价齐升。2024 年中国威士忌进口金额达到 451.43 百万 美元，对比 2015 年增长 2 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨振华股份（603067.SH） [Table_Title] 铬盐全球龙头，规模效应逐步提升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司作为全球铬盐全产业链一体化龙头企业，采取市场份额优先、低成本扩张的发展策略，规 模优势显著，同时清洁化生产技术使其跨越壁垒，一方面不断提高开工率实现铬盐产销增长， 另一方面公司产能即将再次扩张，抬高未来成长上限。铬盐需求增长驱动力从低速增长的革鞣、 电镀、颜料等行业逐渐转向金属铬、高端电镀添加剂等高增长行业，同时铬盐供给扩张受限， 预计供给趋向紧张，行业开启景气周期，公司有望充分受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 34 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 振华股份（603067.SH） cjzqdt11111 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 挖掘潜能，苦练内功 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议学习心得 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1、会议提出了五个新"必须"，既是对去年五个"必须统筹好"的承接，也是迭代。2、财政政 策延续了"更加积极"的表述，但在具体内容上，更侧重于改善财政收入、保持债务强度、优 化支出结构。3、货币政策延续了"适度宽松"的表述，但在具体内容上，更侧重于强调政策效 果，重心也转向宽货币和宽信用并重。4、八大重点任务，扩大内需依然排在第一，"制定实施 城乡居民增收计划"、"推动投资止跌回稳"值得期待。5、防范化解重点领域风险，房地产方面， 核心是稳房价、改善供需格局，"深化住房公积金制度改革"或是明年最大看点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-12-13 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title 挖掘潜能，苦练内功 2] — ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment themes for 2026 in the environmental sector, focusing on overseas expansion, carbon reduction, and pollution control as key strategies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][6] - The environmental industry is experiencing a transition as domestic infrastructure peaks, with a projected 4.9% year-on-year growth in sector performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [6][28] Policy Guidance - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has not yet met carbon reduction targets, indicating a need for continued efforts in this area, while other environmental goals have been largely achieved [22][24] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to synergize carbon peak and neutrality goals with pollution reduction and green growth initiatives [6][24] Overseas Expansion - The report identifies significant market opportunities in Southeast Asia and Central Asia for waste incineration, with a potential market size in the hundreds of billions [7] - Indonesia's upcoming waste incineration projects are highlighted, with expectations for rapid development starting in Q1 2026, supported by sovereign fund investments [7] - Key companies positioned for overseas expansion include Weiming Environmental, China Everbright, and others [7] Carbon Reduction - The carbon market is evolving, with ongoing improvements in the carbon emission control system and an expected rise in carbon prices [8] - Non-electric green energy sectors, such as renewable energy heating and biofuels, are anticipated to benefit from policy support and growing domestic demand [8] - Companies like Zhuoyue New Energy are noted for their potential in the biofuel sector, particularly in the context of EU anti-dumping influences subsiding [8] Pollution Control - The water and air sectors are expected to see continued investment in pollution control, with companies like Xingrong Environment and Aofu Technology highlighted for their growth potential [9] - The report notes that the implementation of the National VI emissions standards will create opportunities in the automotive emissions control market [9] Diverse Investment Opportunities - The report outlines various investment opportunities arising from new production capabilities, cyclical trends, and debt management strategies within the environmental sector [10] - Companies involved in smart technologies and battery materials are identified as potential beneficiaries of these trends [10]