丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨深度报告丨保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 慢牛新周期，保险如何估值？——保险行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 短期视角下，投资收益率是估值的主导因素，资产配置比例是投资收益率的决定性因素。中长 期视角下，受益于政策与市场变化，保险资产端与负债端的利差有望提升，结合行业中长期空 间充足，ROE 有望持续改善。个股层面，推荐中国人寿、新华保险、中国平安、中国人保等优 质标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 近十年数据来看，投资收益率的预期就是保险行业估值的锚。在保险股的投资分析框架中，我 们认为估值的短周期影响因子仍是利差预期，而由于负债成本率在短期变化浮动较小， 因此短 周期估值最主要的影响因素是投资收益率 。借鉴 EV 体系，结合对保险投资 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] "质量红利"占比调升，从红利低波年度调 仓初看 2026 年红利配置机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本月红利指数中中证红利和红利低波正式迎来调仓，从跟踪产品规模到指数代表性上，调仓后 的变化都能一定程度上代表红利投资的些许脉络趋势。结合前序系列报告《AH 红利资产的定 价模式探索系列》中对于红利的划分，此次调仓后成分变化趋势与报告中推荐一致，较为注重 低波稳健度的红利低波指数中质量类红利资产权重占比边际有所提升，或代表红利机会从"传 统红利资产"往"质量红利"资产的切换和扩散。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title "质量红利"占比调升，从红利低波年度调仓初 2] 看 2026 年红利配置机会 [Table_Summary2] 红利指数成分或有何变化？ 成分变化一：入选个股所属行业持续丰富 本次调仓后，家用装饰及休闲、建筑产品、农 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] "十五五"产业趋势篇：科技、国内大循环、战 略安全 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] "十五五"规划建议立足于"十四五"成就，衔接 2035 年远景目标，形成承前启后、接续奋 斗的发展脉络。产业布局上，"十五五"规划以科技创新为核心驱动力，激活超大规模市场潜力 打通国内大循环，将战略安全作为底线保障，实现高质量发展。1）科技创新聚焦自立自强，加 强原始创新和超前布局未来产业，构建未来发展新引擎；2）国内大循环主要通过建立全国统一 大市场与大力提振消费激活内生动力，为经济增长打下坚实的内在支撑；3）战略安全方面重点 围绕产业安全、国防安全、贸易安全三大领域构建安全屏障，国家安全体系和能力进一步加强。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 [Table_Title "十五五"产业趋势篇：科技、国内大循环、战 2] 略安全 [Table_Summary2] 科技 ...

医疗设备行业11月更新： 招采金额环比延续增长态势 长江证券研究所医药研究小组 2025-12-17 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 彭英骐 分析师 徐晓欣 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524030005 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522120001 SFC执业证书编号：BUZ392 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 2 01 设备招采：持续恢复，看好业绩释放 02 集采：县域市场集采占比较低，降幅缓和 03 风险提示 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 设备招采：持续恢复，看好业绩释放 医疗设备行业月度数据跟踪 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 医疗设备行业历经2023-2024年连续两年下滑后，于2025年迎来拐点，行业回归正增长，主要是由于设备更新政策带动的 医院设备采购的需求增加，未来行业有望回归稳健增长。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 2025年医疗设备招采恢复正增长 图1：2019-2025H1设备招采总金额情况 图2：201 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车获 L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车在广州市获 L3 级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化 L3 道路测试，主要适用范围 为广州市智能网联测试高快速路上进行有条件自动驾驶测试。小鹏汽车 AI 应用历史积淀深厚， 当前全面转向 AI 战略，定位面向全球的 AI 汽车公司，并明确未来十年将转型为 AI 汽车智能科 技企业，AI 业务全面起势。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 小鹏汽车获2]L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 [Table_Summary2] ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central government has shifted from "overall resolution and risk prevention" to more proactive "active debt resolution", strictly controlling the source of risks and emphasizing the optimization of debt restructuring and replacement methods. It has also clearly distinguished "operating debts of financing platforms" and included the risk of such debts in the key resolution scope [7][19]. - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily, with the risk being continuously mitigated. However, the market has begun to focus on the operating debt risks of financing platforms, especially the disposal methods for such debts after 2028 [2][7]. - There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms in the future: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [7][31]. - The large - scale fiscal management reform in Hubei Province provides an important reference for local debt resolution and the market - oriented transformation of urban investment platforms [7][36]. - The disposal methods for the operating debt risks of financing platforms after 2028 are uncertain. If fiscal replacement is used again, a new round of inventory and statistics of local government off - balance - sheet debts may start from 2026 - 2027. If market - based resolution is adopted, attention should be paid to the creditworthiness of state - owned enterprises, especially the valuation risks of urban investment entities in relatively weak regions and with weak credit qualifications [7][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implicit Debts Significantly Resolved, but Operating Debts of Financing Platforms Grow Significantly - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily. Since 2024, a total of 10 trillion yuan of debt replacement resources have been arranged, and the implicit debt that local governments need to digest before 2028 has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan [12]. - The scale and proportion of debt - resolution funds have increased significantly. Policy support has effectively matched the needs of local debt resolution, and most implicit debts are expected to be resolved by 2028 [14]. - Since 2018, the interest - bearing debts of urban investment entities have continued to expand. As of November 2025, they have reached about 78.8 trillion yuan, and it is estimated that they will reach nearly 83.5 trillion yuan by 2028. The stock of urban investment bonds has remained stable but decreased slightly, while the bonds of "pan - urban investment" entities have increased [19]. 2. New Ideas for Debt Resolution in the Central Economic Work Conference - By comparing the statements of the Central Economic Work Conferences from 2023 to 2025 on local government debt risks, it can be seen that the policy goals have evolved from "prevention and resolution" to "resolution", from "overall resolution" to "active and orderly resolution", and from "holding the bottom line" to "urging active debt resolution", reflecting a more proactive and targeted policy orientation [27][30]. 3. After 2028, for the Operating Debts of Financing Platforms: Restructuring or Replacement? - The central government's debt - resolution measures are becoming more market - oriented and professional. There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [31]. - The large - scale fiscal reform in Hubei Province provides a sample for local debt resolution. By introducing social capital through asset securitization, it effectively alleviates the current debt - repayment pressure of local governments and enhances fiscal sustainability [36].

Group 1: Core Insights - The future narrative for thermal power is expected to shift towards enhanced profitability stability and increased dividends due to rising capacity prices and deeper assessments by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [2][60] - In the short term, integrated coal power companies are likely to have a comparative advantage as coal prices rise, with a consensus forming around an increase in the coal price baseline for next year [2][6] - Renewable energy companies, despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and subsidy delays, have shown considerable absolute returns, supported by improving policies for green energy development [6][8] Group 2: Thermal Power Analysis - Historical performance of thermal power shows a certain "counter-cyclical" nature, with earnings often moving inversely to coal prices, which are now market-driven [19][26] - The current policy framework limits the duration of profitability expectations for thermal power, leading to a "high first, low second" characteristic in the market for 2023 and 2024 [6][45] - The expected increase in capacity prices across provinces by 2026 will enhance the fixed cost recovery ability of coal power plants, significantly improving profitability stability [60][64] Group 3: Renewable Energy Insights - The renewable energy sector is currently facing multiple issues, including market price pressure and subsidy delays, but the gradual improvement in policy support is expected to create investment opportunities [6][8] - Companies with low valuations, high wind power ratios, and strong regional price certainty are still worth considering for investment despite the uncertain timing of policy impacts [2][6] Group 4: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Leading hydropower companies exhibit high earnings certainty and dividend ratios, making them attractive for long-term investment [7] - Nuclear power is anticipated to see significant capacity growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stable long-term price expectations despite some market price fluctuations [8][60] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as leading hydropower firms like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9] - In the renewable sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations of gradual recovery driven by global economic growth and demand increase [2][5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side dynamics, noting the retreat of foreign investment and the slowdown of domestic capacity expansion, which may lead to a turning point for the industry [2][5][36] - Key recommendations include focusing on cyclical resilient and growth sectors such as industrial silicon, organic silicon, PTA, spandex, caprolactam, soda ash, and chlor-alkali, as well as high-demand products like refrigerants and potassium fertilizers [2][5][6] Demand Side Analysis - The chemical industry is closely tied to global economic performance, with a projected global GDP growth of 3.09% in 2026, driven mainly by developing countries like India [22][25] - China's GDP growth is expected to be 4.16% in 2026, indicating robust domestic demand [22][25] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive material consumption, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and energy storage capacity anticipated [27][29] Supply Side Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by foreign chemical giants due to rising energy costs and increased competition, leading to significant profit declines [36][41] - Major foreign companies are closing high-cost production facilities in Europe, which may create opportunities for domestic players [36][41][47] - Domestic chemical companies are experiencing pressure on investment returns, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth and a pause in new capacity plans [49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on cyclical resilient products and growth sectors, with specific attention to high-quality companies that possess competitive advantages [6][36] - The potential for price increases or stable prices with volume growth in bottom-tier products is emphasized, particularly in industrial silicon and organic silicon [6][36] - The report also identifies opportunities in the tire and civil explosives sectors, particularly as companies expand internationally [7][36] Emerging Opportunities - New material sectors, including humanoid robots and AI materials, are highlighted as areas of potential growth, driven by domestic policy support and the need for localized supply chains [8][36] - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade tensions [8][36]

[Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ——可转债周报 20251213 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周受外部信用事件扰动，部分低价临期转债显著回调，市场正逐步定价偿债风险。鉴于宏观 稳健与债底坚实，若因担忧过度导致超调或提供布局良机，整体信用风险可控。当周 A 股窄幅 震荡，创业板及中盘风格相对占优，通信、军工等科技制造板块回暖明显，周期类行业相对较 弱，板块拥挤度呈分化特征。可转债市场整体略有走强，大盘与小盘表现优于中盘，估值整体 拉伸，隐含波动率维持高位，行情主要由高价券及科技板块带动。一级市场发行平稳，审核有 序推进，条款博弈仍是焦点，下修分化与强赎频现并存，需警惕情绪扰动对估值结构的影响。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 临期低价转债风险或已基本定价 ...