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新旧动能切换+供给竞争转势,碳化硅衬底进击再成长
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 11:26
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry is "Positive" and maintained [14]. Core Insights - The silicon carbide (SiC) industry is undergoing a dual transition of new and old driving forces, along with a reshaping of the supply landscape. Demand is shifting from traditional applications like electric vehicles and photovoltaics to AI chip cooling, driven by a surge in computing power needs. This new demand is expected to grow at a higher rate and with long-term certainty, creating a dual driving force alongside a stable fundamental base. On the supply side, domestic companies are leading breakthroughs in 12-inch substrate R&D and pilot production, while overseas leader Wolfspeed is entering bankruptcy restructuring due to ongoing massive losses, accelerating the global supply chain's shift towards China. Domestic substrate companies are poised to capture the dual dividends of "computing power β + domestic α," propelling SiC from a material supplier to a core enabler of computing infrastructure, initiating a new growth cycle characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price [5][13]. Summary by Sections AI Demand and Constraints - The explosive growth in computing power is facing three rigid constraints: economic, technical, and performance-related. The rising costs associated with process upgrades and design investments are deteriorating the input-output ratio. Technically, transistor miniaturization is approaching atomic scales, leading to quantum tunneling and leakage effects, which slow down single-thread performance growth. Performance-wise, while multi-core stacking increases total computing power, it results in GPU power consumption exceeding 400W, with future overall power consumption potentially surpassing 1kW, creating a "power wall" that restricts frequency enhancement and long-term stability [11][26]. Silicon Carbide as a Cooling Material - Silicon carbide has been validated in high-reliability scenarios such as electric vehicles and photovoltaic inverters over the past decade. Its material properties enable efficient cooling for computing power: a thermal conductivity of 4.9 W/cm·K (about three times that of silicon), low thermal expansion coefficient, and high Young's modulus. Laser-assisted through-silicon vias can precisely construct high aspect ratio 3D thermal channels, significantly optimizing heat flow paths. Stress tests confirm its superiority over silicon-based solutions in controlling radial stress and axial strain [12][13]. Market Growth and Supply Restructuring - The SiC industry is at a historic turning point with "demand expansion + supply restructuring." The demand side sees AI chip cooling creating a new market, with TSMC's CoWoS capacity expected to reach 1 million pieces per month by 2026, potentially generating over $1 billion if 30% adopts SiC solutions. Coupled with steady growth in the renewable energy sector, the industry is entering a high-growth phase driven by dual forces. On the supply side, leading domestic companies are accelerating the realization of their capacity plans, while Wolfspeed's bankruptcy is shifting global supply chain dominance towards China. In this context, leading companies with technological barriers and deep customer ties are set to fully capture the dual dividends of "computing power β + domestic α," elevating SiC from a material supplier to a core enabler of computing infrastructure [13][14].
千问免单活动导致宕机,关注算力基础设施投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 11:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - The "Spring Festival 30 Billion Free Order" event launched by Qianwen App led to a surge in orders, causing system crashes and highlighting the current shortage of computing power resources among major AI companies like Alibaba. This event indicates a growing demand for computing power, which is expected to increase as companies compete for AI application traffic during the Spring Festival [2][4][8] - Major companies, including Tencent, ByteDance, and Baidu, are expected to engage in a "traffic war" during the Spring Festival, collectively investing approximately 4.5 billion to secure AI entry points, further driving the demand for computing power [8] - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing power chip manufacturers, particularly industry leaders like Cambricon and Haiguang Information, as well as companies involved in computing power leasing and IDC [2][8] Summary by Sections Event Description - On February 6, Qianwen App launched a promotional event that resulted in a significant increase in orders, with over 1 million orders placed within 9 hours, setting a new record for the beverage industry. The system faced a peak request processing rate 30 times higher than normal, leading to a complete server crash [2][4][8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the computing power demand is expected to continue to grow, especially with the increased capital expenditures (CapEx) from major overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, which are projected to exceed 600 billion USD in total for 2026 [8]
我国取得可扩展量子网络突破,关注量子科技产业投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 11:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - Recent breakthroughs in scalable quantum networks by researchers from the University of Science and Technology of China have made long-distance quantum networks a realistic possibility. They achieved high-fidelity entanglement between single-atom nodes over long distances and successfully transmitted device-independent quantum key distribution (DI-QKD) over distances exceeding 100 kilometers, advancing the practical application of this technology [2][4][9] - The quantum communication industry in China is currently the largest globally, accounting for 25% of the market share, and is transitioning from demonstration projects to national infrastructure. The country has established the world's first and largest wide-area quantum backbone network, covering over 10,000 kilometers and 80 cities [9][4] - The recent advancements in quantum relay technology and DI-QKD mark a significant milestone for China's quantum communication sector, reinforcing its leading position and paving the way for the construction of a quantum internet [9][4] Summary by Sections Event Description - Researchers have constructed the basic module of a scalable quantum relay, enabling long-distance quantum networks. They achieved a significant milestone by extending the lifetime of quantum entanglement to 550 milliseconds, surpassing the time required to establish entanglement [4][9] Event Commentary - The successful implementation of high-fidelity entanglement over 11 kilometers and maintaining over 90% fidelity at 100 kilometers demonstrates the potential for practical quantum secure communication. This breakthrough is expected to accelerate the commercialization of quantum communication technologies [9][4]
相关标准相继拟定,车路云一体化建设有望加速推进
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 11:18
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 相关标准相继拟定,车路云一体化建设有望加速 推进 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 日前,国内首个智能网联基础设施国标《城市道路智能网联基础设施技术标准》正式启动编制, 该"国标"填补了我国在该领域国家标准的空白,将为城市道路智能网联基础设施的规划、设 计、建设、验收与运维全流程提供统一的技术规范和权威依据。当前时点,随着高阶驾驶辅助 普及提速,相关试点、示范应用工作的持续推进,我国"车路云一体化"建设有望加速推进, 惠及 相关产业链。建议关注"车路云一体化"全产业链,重点关注车路协同基建厂商。 分析师及联系人 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Author] 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 相关标准相继拟定,车路云一体化建设有望加 2] 速推进 1、政策推进不及预期; 2、技术发展不及预期。 请阅读最后评级 ...
沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子措施点评:资本市场投融资改革的进一步深化
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 08:57
[Table_Summary] 本次再融资优化一揽子措施从优质上市公司定向支持、科创企业制度适配、再融资机制效率提 升、全流程风险防控四大维度完善再融资制度体系。从资本市场融资监管周期视角来看,本次 再融资优化是在 2023 年 8 月以来的逆周期调节周期下从融资端对优质企业、科创企业的精准 滴灌。既突出扶优、扶科政策导向,为其拓宽融资渠道,也将防风险、强监管放在突出位置, 守住市场风险底线,从而实现精准滴灌优质企业、科创企业融资需求与资本市场稳定发展的双 向平衡。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 资本市场投融资改革的进一步深化 ——沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子措施点评 报告要点 SAC:S0490519080007 SFC:BUV596 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 资本市场投融资改革的进一步深化 2] ——沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子措施点评 [Table_ ...
行业研究|行业周报|投资银行业与经纪业:回调后建议积极配置,持续关注板块绩优个股-20260210
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 08:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown weak overall performance this week, with a recommendation to seize allocation opportunities in the brokerage sector as market trading has slightly declined but remains at historical highs. In the insurance sector, the long-term outlook is optimistic due to improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery potential, suggesting a positive allocation strategy for insurance stocks [2][4] - The report continues to recommend stable dividend-paying stocks such as Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which exhibit strong profitability and market positions. Additionally, it highlights companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.6% this week, with an excess return of +0.7% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is down 1.1%, with an excess return of -1.4% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 31 [5] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 24,066.54 billion yuan, down 21.43% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.36%, down 60.83 basis points [5][35] Insurance Sector Insights - In December 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 61,194 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.43%. Life insurance premiums increased by 8.91%, while property insurance premiums rose by 3.92% [20][21] - The total assets of insurance companies reached 41.31 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 36.39 trillion yuan, representing 88.09% of the total [25][26] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage business is experiencing a gradual recovery in profitability, with the average daily trading volume exceeding the 2025 average. The report notes that the commission fee rates are stabilizing, which is expected to support the profitability of the brokerage sector [35][41] - In January 2026, the equity financing scale rebounded to 134.86 billion yuan, up 103.4% month-on-month, while bond financing decreased by 15.6% [45] Asset Management and Fund Issuance - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of collective asset management products, with January 2026 seeing a new issuance of 9.104 billion units, up 40.1% from the previous month. The new fund issuance also increased to 1,094.51 billion units, reflecting a 41.3% month-on-month rise [47][49]
政府债周报(02/08):下周新增债披露发行2566亿-20260210
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 08:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of local government bond issuance, including issuance forecasts, historical reviews, special bond issuance progress, regional issuance plans and actual issuance, and weighted average issuance terms [1][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Local Government Bond Issuance Forecast and Review - **2/9 - 2/15 Forecast**: Local government bonds are expected to issue 32.2136 billion yuan, including 25.6607 billion yuan of new bonds (6.1593 billion yuan of new general bonds and 19.5014 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 6.5529 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (2.0884 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 4.4645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5]. - **2/2 - 2/8 Review**: A total of 57.9673 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, including 20.9811 billion yuan of new bonds (7.5535 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13.4276 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 36.9861 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (4.4282 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 32.5579 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][6]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: As of February 8, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 200 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 58.3985 billion yuan, with an additional 3.3291 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch are Jiangsu (8 billion yuan), Zhejiang (5.64 billion yuan), and Henan (4.8295 billion yuan) [7]. - **Special New Special Bonds**: As of February 8, 2026 special new special bonds totaled 6.9406 billion yuan, and since 2023, they totaled 255.4672 billion yuan. The top three regions in total disclosure are Jiangsu (24.4035 billion yuan), Hubei (13.7769 billion yuan), and Henan (13.2534 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions are Zhejiang (1.17 billion yuan), Guangdong (1.096 billion yuan), and Liaoning (0.8914 billion yuan) [7]. 3. Regional Issuance Plans and Actual Issuance - **February 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, an increase of 29.53 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The actual disclosed issuance is 90.18 billion yuan, with an expected repayment of 8.49 billion yuan and a net financing of 69.27 billion yuan. - **March 2026**: The expected issuance is 85.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.01 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025. The expected repayment is 16.62 billion yuan, and the net financing is 69.27 billion yuan [8]. 4. Weighted Average Issuance Term - This week, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds is 16.12 years, and next week it is 15.48 years. As of February 6, the weighted average issuance term in February is 16.12 years, a 20.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. As of February 6, 2026, it is 17.04 years, a 0.8% decrease compared to the same period in 2025 [9].
——W135市场观察:哪些行业风格处于低拥挤状态?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-10 08:12
Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a pattern of reduced volume and mixed fluctuations, with essential consumer and industrial sectors leading weekly gains[1] - The growth style's congestion level has decreased over the past two weeks, but remains lower than that of high-quality and growth stocks in absolute terms[1] Industry Insights - Congestion levels for agricultural products and banks have increased, while transportation and telecommunications sectors lag behind in weekly trading congestion[1] - Essential consumer and industrial sectors showed strong weekly performance, indicating a potential shift in market focus[4] Investment Trends - Institutional funds generally experienced a pullback as growth stocks declined, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking among funds[4] - The Longjiang Manufacturing Champions and Low-Carbon Leaders indices performed well, highlighting specific thematic investment opportunities[4] Performance Metrics - The growth style indices showed a notable decline, with the Longjiang Growth Index down by 4.08% and the Longjiang High Valuation Index down by 6.20%[21] - In contrast, the Longjiang Low Valuation Index recorded a modest gain of 0.56%, indicating a preference for value-oriented investments during this period[31]
走在债市曲线之前系列报告(十五):从曲线与成交看地方债投资价值(下)
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-09 15:06
Group 1: Report Highlights - The widening spread between special-purpose bonds and general bonds was mainly driven by supply shocks and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. The relative relationship of spreads between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds was driven by changes in Treasury yields. There were regional differentiations in the primary spread levels of local government bonds, and the difference between primary and secondary spreads verified the differences in the marketization degree of issuance in each region. The liquidity level of local government bonds affected the historical spread changes. There were certain differences in the number of market quotes from brokers in each region, reflecting the differences in liquidity. Moreover, there were regular differentiations in the trading preferences of each province and various institutional entities [3]. Group 2: Core Views - The report systematically analyzed the investment value of local government bonds from two core dimensions: the changes in local government bond spreads and their influencing factors, and the trading and buying situations in the local government bond market. It provided in - depth analyses of the driving factors behind the widening of the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds from late 2024 to early 2025 and the change in the relative relationship between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds around Q4 2024. It also focused on the regional differentiations in primary and secondary spreads and their causes, and summarized the regular characteristics in trading and net - buying preferences in the market [78]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Exploration of Factors Affecting Local Government Bond Spreads 1.1 Widening of Spread between Special - Purpose Bonds and General Bonds - From 2020 to early 2024, the spread between special - purpose bonds and general bonds remained stable within the range of - 4 to 4bp. However, from late 2024 to early 2025, the spread widened significantly, reaching a peak of 8bp in early May 2025 and then gradually falling back to around 2bp. The main reasons were the concentrated supply shock of special - purpose bonds and the differentiated risk weights of commercial banks. In November and December 2024, over 2 trillion yuan of special - purpose bonds were issued, which exceeded the market demand and broke the supply - demand balance. The "Commercial Bank Capital Management Measures" implemented on January 1, 2024, differentiated the risk exposure weights of general bonds (10%) and special - purpose bonds (20%), which increased the capital occupation cost of commercial banks for special - purpose bonds and reduced their allocation demand [14][18]. 1.2 Changes in Spreads of 20Y and 30Y Local Government Bonds - The spread between 20Y and 30Y local government bonds changed around Q4 2024, with the spread of 30Y local government bonds minus that of 20Y local government bonds turning from negative to positive. This change was mainly due to the change in the relative level of 20Y and 30Y Treasury yields, as the change point of Treasury yields coincided with that of local government bond spreads [32]. 1.3 Difference between Primary and Secondary Spreads - From 2015 - 2025, the primary spreads of local government bonds showed significant regional differentiations and term - related characteristics. Regionally, the primary spreads were inversely related to the regional economic development level, with higher spreads in the central, western, and northeastern regions. In terms of term, the primary spread of 1Y local government bonds was relatively low, while those of 2 - 10Y bonds were generally over 20bp, and the spread of 5Y bonds was the highest at 23.21bp. The spreads of 15 - 30Y long - term local government bonds fluctuated around 18bp. The difference between primary and secondary spreads reflected the regional differentiations in the marketization degree of local government bond issuance. Some provinces had a small difference between primary and secondary spreads, while in some areas such as Ningbo, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the non - marketization of issuance was more serious [35][40]. 1.4 Factors Affecting Spreads - The offensive and defensive characteristics of local government bonds changed significantly around August 2023. Before August 2023, local government bonds had stronger defensive attributes than Treasury bonds, and their spread changes were mainly passive. After August 2023, their offensive attributes became prominent, and the active widening and narrowing of spreads were obvious. The main reasons were the change in the participation of trading desks and the impact of policies on the supply term structure of local government bonds. The increase in the supply of special - purpose bonds also led to the widening of spreads in some stages [45][49][52]. 2. Analysis of Local Government Bond Trading and Buying 2.1 Bid/Ofr Quote Quantity and Spread - According to the sampling data of 10Y new local government bonds issued after August 8, 2025, in the broker market, there were significant differences in the liquidity of local government bonds in each region. Some regions had high broker - market activity, with sufficient bid and ofr quotes and active trading, while some regions had poor liquidity. The average bid - ofr difference of the sampled provinces was about 1.68bp, and the ChinaBond valuation price was generally 1 - 2bp higher than the ofr price [58]. 2.2 Regional Trading Patterns - By comparing the trading volume and trading value of local government bonds in 2024 and 2025, it was found that some regions had obvious trading preferences for certain - term local government bonds. For example, 1 - 3Y bonds were more actively traded in Zhejiang, 5 - 7Y bonds were more popular in Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Jiangsu, and long - term bonds with a term of over 20Y were actively traded in Fujian, Shandong, and Sichuan. The weighted average trading terms calculated by trading volume and trading value were consistent with the above - mentioned trading preferences [63]. 2.3 Net Buying - Based on the data from 2021 - 2025, different institutional entities had different net - buying preferences for local government bonds of different terms. Large - scale banks mainly focused on local government bonds with a term of less than seven years, rural commercial banks had a more diverse range of term preferences, city commercial banks' net - buying characteristics were similar to those of rural commercial banks, securities firms' self - operation mainly concentrated on 1 - 5Y local government bonds, funds' net - buying terms were more dispersed, and insurance companies showed an increasing preference for long - term local government bonds and were the largest net - buying entities for 15 - 30Y local government bonds [68]. 2.4 Cross - Market Trading Comparison - After the optimization of the local government bond transfer - custody business, it became more convenient to transfer local government bonds between the inter - bank market and the exchange market. The inter - bank market had the largest trading volume of local government bonds, and the absolute values of the differences between the trading prices in the inter - bank and broker markets and the ChinaBond valuation were smaller. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had a larger trading volume than the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with higher trading yields [73][76].
继峰股份(603997):点评:座椅及海外经营持续向上,四季度盈利水平大幅提升
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-09 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 to 500 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses [3][9]. - The company is benefiting from rapid growth in its seating business and ongoing overseas operational integration, which is expected to lead to substantial profit elasticity in the future [9]. - The company has a rich order backlog and is poised for increased profitability as orders materialize [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 2.0 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year turnaround and a 107.1% increase [9]. - For the first half of 2025, the seating business generated revenue of 1.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 450 million, 900 million, and 1.25 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42.4X, 21.2X, and 15.4X [9]. Business Development - The company is expanding its seating business and has made significant progress in global integration, with 24 projects currently in hand as of July 31, 2025 [9]. - The company is also diversifying into air conditioning vents and vehicle refrigerators, which have already secured multiple orders, enhancing future growth prospects [9]. Market Position - The company is leveraging its production and R&D efficiency, along with a high self-manufacturing rate, to penetrate major global automotive manufacturers [9]. - The integration of Grammer is expected to enhance decision-making and management, further driving the company's global seating business [9].