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顾家家居(603816):25Q3点评:收入稳健增长、利润超预期,兼具高股息与长期α
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 05:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 15.012 billion, 1.539 billion, and 1.389 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9%, 13%, and 14%. For Q3 alone, the figures were 5.211 billion, 518 million, and 489 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7%, 12%, and 11% [2][6]. - Both domestic and international sales saw growth in Q3, with the company’s competitive advantages strengthening, alongside favorable cash flow and high dividends, highlighting its investment value [2][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - The company reported steady revenue growth, with Q3 domestic sales continuing the trend from H1, particularly in sofas, soft beds, and mattresses, which saw year-on-year increases of 14.7%, 10.4%, and 12.6%, respectively. The growth in sofas was driven by functional sofas, with retail sales in this category increasing by over 50% due to continuous product technology optimization [7]. International Sales and Expansion - International sales also showed growth, particularly in the sofa and mattress segments. The company is expanding its overseas production capacity in Vietnam, Mexico, and the U.S., with plans for a new base in Indonesia. The development of new business trends, such as cross-border e-commerce and the establishment of self-owned brand stores in various countries, is contributing positively to growth [7]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s profitability continued to improve in Q3, with gross margin, net profit margin, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 1.6, 0.5, and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, respectively. This improvement is attributed to ongoing cost reduction efforts and operational efficiency [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects net profit attributable to the parent to reach 1.93 billion, 2.10 billion, and 2.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 13, 12, and 11 times. The anticipated dividend for 2024 is 1.13 billion yuan, yielding a dividend rate of approximately 4.5% [7].
成都银行(601838):利息加速增长,做实资产质量指标
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 05:12
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨成都银行(601838.SH) [Table_Title] 利息加速增长,做实资产质量指标 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前三季度营收同比增速 3.0%,归母净利润增速 5.0%。利息净收入同比增长 8.2%,保持快速 增长,反映信贷高速扩表+息差降幅收窄;非息净收入受债市波动影响下降 16.5%。资产端持 续扩张,总资产较期初增长 10.8%,贷款增长 14.2%,企业贷款保持高增长。不良率环比+2BP 至 0.68%,但关注率环比下降 7BP 至 0.37%,预计收紧不良认定标准做实资产质量指标,拨 备覆盖率 433%,环比-20pct 仍处于高位。展望未来,中长期维度信贷市占率预计持续提升, 息差企稳回升有望带动营收增速上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...
青岛银行(002948):利润维持高增速,质效提升驱动价值重估
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 05:12
[Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨青岛银行(002948.SZ) [Table_Title] 利润维持高增速,质效提升驱动价值重估 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 青岛银行前三季度营收增速 5.0%,归母净利润增速 15.5%,利润维持高增速。利息净收入同 比增长 12.0%,核心源于信贷高速扩表。非息收入同比下降 10.7%,主要受三季度债市走弱影 响。资产端稳健扩张,总资产较期初增长 11.0%,贷款增长 10.2%,对公贷款高增 14.6%拉动 信贷扩表。三季度净息差较 2024 全年降 5BP 至 1.68%,负债成本加速下降缓释息差压力。不 良率和拨备覆盖率持续改善,达到上市以来最优水平。三年战略收官年,质效提升逻辑加速验 证。目前 A/H 股 2025 年 PB 估值 0.72x/0.56x,PE 估值 6.2x/4.8x ,维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明 ...
ETF掘金图鉴系列报告之二:信用债ETF运作机制拆解
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 02:21
固收资产配置丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 信用债 ETF 运作机制拆解 ——ETF 掘金图鉴系列报告之二 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本篇报告为"ETF 掘金图鉴"系列报告的第二篇,主要研究信用债 ETF 的产品设计与运行机 制,以及分析其投资逻辑。信用债 ETF 采用抽样复制指数方式以实现跟踪,指数表现出年化收 益率分化、久期差异化明显的特征,可覆盖从短期到中长期的多样化需求。同时,PCF 清单、 做市商和回购制度实现了产品较高的透明度和可交易性。投资价值方面,信用债 ETF 兼具分散 风险和流动性等优势,同时一二级市场折溢价差带来套利机会,但补券成本和交易费用需审慎 评估。整体而言,信用债 ETF 在资产配置与流动性管理中的作用正日益凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 请阅读最后评级 ...
海力士指引26年位元需求进一步提升,持续看好本轮存储大周期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 00:45
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 海力士指引 26 年位元需求进一步提升,持续看 好本轮存储大周期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 据海力士三季报指引,伴随着 AI 推理端的持续落地,2026 年 DRAM/NAND Flash 位元需求相 较于 25 年呈进一步增长之势。我们认为存储行业逻辑正在完成从供给端控产驱动的涨价周期 到 AI 需求拉动下的供给缺口逐步形成的产业大周期。当成长逻辑持续占优之际,持续看好存储 行业的确定性机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 张梦杰 SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490523120002 SFC:BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 电子设备、仪器和元件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 海力士指引2]26 年位元需求进一步提升,持续看 好本轮存储大周期 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 据海力士三季报指引,伴随着 AI 推理端的持续落地,2026 年 DRAM/NAND Flash 位元需求相 较于 25 年呈进一步增长之势。我们认 ...
鸿路钢构(002541):吨经营利润改善明显,现金流大幅流入
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 5.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 8.51% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 121 million yuan, an increase of 0.59% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a production volume of 3.6102 million tons in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.06%. In the third quarter alone, production was 1.248 million tons, up 9.0% year-on-year. The sales volume for the third quarter was estimated at 1.185 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [12]. - The order amount for the first three quarters was 22.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, with the third-quarter order amount at 7.887 billion yuan, up 4.19% year-on-year [12]. - The gross profit per ton improved significantly, with a third-quarter gross profit of 506 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared to the same period last year. This improvement is attributed to rising steel prices and increased production scale [12]. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the third quarter showed significant improvement, with a net inflow of 575 million yuan, an increase of 203 million yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio was 101.26%, up 4.62 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a continued rise in profitability due to improved usage of robotic technology and a stabilization in steel prices. The report highlights a positive trend in steel prices, indicating a low risk of significant declines [12]. - The management reform and increased application of welding robots are anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations of improved robot usage rates by the end of the year [12].
海油发展(600968):业绩受非经损益影响,Q3毛利率创历史新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨海油发展(600968.SH) 报告要点 [Table_Title] 业绩受非经损益影响,Q3 毛利率创历史新高 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 海油发展(600968.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩受非经损益影响,Q3 毛利率创历史新高 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 王岭峰 SAC:S0490520080009 SAC:S0490521080001 SFC:BUT964 SFC:BWF918 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报,前三季度实现营收 339.47 亿元,同比提升 0.81%,实现归母净利 润 28.53 亿元,同比提升 6.11%,扣非归母净利润 28.60 亿元,同比提升 14.54%;单三季度, 公司实现营收 113.50 亿元,同比减少 5.75%,实现归母净利润 10.23 亿元,同比减少 4.51%, 扣非归母净利润达 ...
宁波银行(002142):业绩加速,息差企稳,不良生成率连续显著改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨宁波银行(002142.SZ) [Table_Title] 业绩加速,息差企稳,不良生成率连续显著改善 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前三季度营收同比增速 8.3%,归母净利润增速 8.4%。利息净收入同比 11.8%,持续高增源于 规模增长强劲+息差环比企稳。非利息净收入同比增速 0.3%,降速主要债市震荡影响,手续费 净收入增速大幅上行至29.3%,预计财富管理业务收入明显增长。Q3末贷款较期初增长16.3%, 其中一般对公贷款大幅增长 30.8%。前三季度净息差 1.76%,较上半年稳定,Q3 末不良率稳 定于 0.76%,拨备覆盖率环比回升 2pct 至 376%,连续两个季度回升;前三季度不良净生成率 下行至 0.93%,单季不良生成率已连续两个季度回落,预计零售风险压力趋于稳定。 research.95579.com 1 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读 ...
裕同科技(002831):盈利水平持续提升,看好收入增长提速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit levels are continuously improving, with expectations for accelerated revenue growth [4][5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.181 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.726 billion yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2% to 627 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin, net profit margin, and deductive net profit margin improved by 1.2, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025, respectively [10]. - The company’s expenses in sales, management, R&D, and financial costs showed varied changes, with financial costs rising due to exchange losses [10]. International Strategy - The company has been advancing its international strategy since 2010, establishing production bases in over 40 cities across 10 countries, including Vietnam, India, and Mexico [10]. - The overseas revenue contribution is expected to increase from over 20% currently to potentially over 40% in the future, with higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a high cash dividend policy, with cumulative cash dividends amounting to 3.79 billion yuan and share buybacks totaling 870 million yuan since its listing [10]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is over 6%, with a target compound annual growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders set at 10% [10]. Market Opportunities - The company is expanding its customer base beyond traditional sectors like consumer electronics and tobacco, targeting industries such as smart hardware, cosmetics, and healthcare [10]. - The company’s market share remains low, indicating significant growth potential in the packaging industry, which is characterized by low entry barriers and increasing competition [10].
洪城环境(600461):2025Q3扣非归母净利润同比增长7.18%,资本开支下行保障高分红
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨洪城环境(600461.SH) [Table_Title] 洪城环境:2025Q3 扣非归母净利润同比增长 7.18%,资本开支下行保障高分红 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 洪城环境 2025Q3 实现营收 17.38 亿元,同比增长 2.41%;归母净利润 3.24 亿元,同比增长 2.13%;扣非归母净利润 3.24 亿元,同比增长 7.18%。扣非业绩增速高于归母业绩增速主因去 年同期实现 2,870 万元政府补助收入,2025Q3 仅 207 万元。2025Q1-3 公司资本开支为 6.62 亿元,同比大幅减少(上年同期 15.8 亿元),利于维持高分红比例。期待公用事业市场化改革 持续推进,利于公司盈利性保障和现金流改善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490517090001 SAC:S0490520070003 SAC:S0490524080004 SAC:S0490525070006 SFC:BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...