丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 2026 年第 2 周，通信板块上涨 0.99%，在长江一级行业中排名第 8 位；2026 年年初以来，通 信板块上涨 2.51%，在长江一级行业中排名第 19 位。台积电大幅上修 2026 年 Capex 至 520- 560 亿美元，直言产能非常紧张、未来三年资本支出将显著增加；AI 加速器营收占比提升明显， 2024-2029 年营收 CAGR 指引上调至接近 55%。OpenAI、CoreWeave、Meta 与 xAI 等头部 厂商持续扩建 AI 超算集群，锁定中长期算力与能源资源，全球 AI 算力需求强劲。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于海宁 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 行业研究丨行业周报丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 振景气向好 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信周观点：台积电资本开支上修，算力供需共 2] ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [8]. Core Insights - The AI coding market is rapidly expanding, with predictions from Spherical Insights indicating that the market size may exceed $29.5 billion by 2032. The penetration rate of AI programming tools is currently 30% in China, with potential for rapid growth, while 91% of developers in the U.S. are already using such tools [6][10]. - The evolution of AI coding capabilities, particularly through models like Claude and GPT-4, has significantly improved long-context understanding, complex reasoning, and code generation quality, transforming the software development ecosystem from a tool-based approach to a decision-making one [6][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AI coding industry is witnessing a paradigm shift from tools to decision-making agents, enhancing productivity and reducing marginal costs of code generation [6][10]. Market Trends - The AI coding market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of over $29.5 billion by 2032. The current penetration rate in the U.S. is 91%, while China's is at 30%, indicating room for growth [6][10]. Technological Advancements - The report outlines the development stages of Anthropic's Claude model, highlighting its progression from basic coding capabilities to advanced reasoning and project analysis, culminating in the Claude 3.5 and Claude 4 models that support entire development cycles [10]. Product Launches - Anthropic's recent product, Cowork, designed for non-programmers, showcases the maturity of AI coding capabilities, with its underlying code generated by Claude Code in just 10 days [4][10]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI coding technologies, given the rapid advancements and market potential [6][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shortage of AI electronic cloth, particularly Low CTE electronic cloth, driven by increased demand from companies like Apple and Qualcomm for chip substrates and printed circuit boards. The only supplier, Nitto Denko, has not increased production capacity, creating opportunities for domestic companies like China National Materials and Honghe Technology to fill the gap and accelerate domestic substitution [5][6] - Ordinary electronic cloth is expected to see an upward trend in prices from 2025 to 2026, following a period of price stabilization. The price of ordinary electronic cloth has risen from 3.4 CNY/m in early 2025 to 4.1 CNY/m in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [6] - Cement shipments have slightly increased due to seasonal demand recovery, while glass inventory has decreased. The average shipment rate for key domestic cement companies is around 40%, with a 1.2 percentage point increase month-on-month [7][24] Summary by Sections Cement - In mid-January, cement demand has shown signs of recovery due to warmer temperatures in southern regions and pre-holiday construction rushes, with an average shipment rate of 40% for key cement companies, up 1.2 percentage points month-on-month and 7.7 percentage points year-on-year [7][30] - The national average cement price is 352.58 CNY/ton, down 4.68 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 55.97 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] - Cement inventory stands at 57.44%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points month-on-month [24] Glass - The national average price for glass is 62.61 CNY/weight box, up 0.63 CNY/weight box month-on-month but down 12.34 CNY/weight box year-on-year [37] - The total inventory of glass in key monitored provinces is 4,986 million weight boxes, a decrease of 209 million weight boxes month-on-month [36][37] Industry Outlook for 2026 - The report identifies three main lines for investment: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand in housing expected to drive industry demand back to historical highs [8] - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement recommended for their potential in overseas markets [8] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic cloth, with a focus on Low-Dk products and the significant opportunity for domestic substitution in Low CTE supply [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the healthcare industry, specifically for companies with high overseas revenue ratios [12]. Core Insights - The report reviews the development path of Sysmex over the past 20 years, concluding that the company has established itself as a global medical device company with over 50% of its revenue coming from overseas since 2003 [4][10]. - Continuous improvement in sales share in overseas markets requires localized deployment, including direct sales teams and local production [4]. - Profit growth is expected to lag behind revenue growth due to high initial overseas investment and elevated sales and management expenses, but profit margins are anticipated to improve as revenue scales up, entering a "Davis Double" phase [4]. - Emerging markets are projected to be the core markets for future overseas sales, with revenue growth expected to maintain a rapid pace of over 20% [4]. Summary by Sections Sysmex's Global Strategy - Sysmex's revenue from overseas markets grew from $464 million in 2005 to $2.894 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.11% [8][31]. - The company has undergone significant stock price growth, increasing over 50 times in the past 25 years, driven by performance releases and valuation improvements [8][40]. - The company has established a comprehensive localization strategy in the U.S. and Europe, transitioning from distribution to direct sales and production base construction [9][77]. Regional Performance - In Japan, Sysmex's revenue is projected to grow from $313 million in 2005 to $445 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 1.86% [31]. - The U.S. market has seen a shift from distribution to direct sales since 2003, significantly enhancing brand strength and market share [86]. - The Asia-Pacific region has shown robust growth, with reagent revenue expected to increase from 19.9 billion yen in 2021 to 35.1 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 20.8% [73]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Chinese companies with high overseas revenue ratios, such as Mindray Medical and South Micro Medical, which are transitioning from relying on distributors to building localized teams [10][115]. - Companies with established experience and localized teams are expected to see accelerated growth in overseas revenue as product strength and brand recognition improve [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming sector [7]. Core Insights - The gaming industry continues to show strong performance with multiple new game launches and the integration of AI applications, which are expected to enhance valuations in the sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the sustained growth in the mini-game market, with over 1 billion registered users on WeChat mini-games and a monthly active user (MAU) count exceeding 500 million [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in gaming, citing the successful implementation of AI-driven features in games like Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group," which has seen over 25 million AI-participated matches [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The mini-game market is experiencing good growth, with nearly 70 games achieving over 1 million daily active users (DAU) and over 300 games generating quarterly revenues exceeding 10 million [9]. - User engagement is increasing, with a projected 10% growth in DAU for WeChat mini-games in 2025, and a 27% year-on-year increase in users active for more than ten days a month [9]. New Game Launches - The report notes that the new game cycle continues into January, with several new titles and long-term products performing well, including "Supernatural Action Group" and "RO: Journey of the World" [9]. - Upcoming game releases are expected to further catalyze the market, with titles like "Tomorrow's Ark: End of the World" and "Douluo Dalu: Zero" set to launch soon [9]. Investment Recommendations - Given the ongoing new game launches and the strong performance of the gaming sector, the report suggests continued attention to investment opportunities in the gaming industry, recommending companies such as Giant Network, Perfect World, and Tencent Holdings [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding AI applications and domestic computing power investment opportunities, highlighting the acceleration of AI applications and the potential for industry upgrades in the long term [6][40] - The introduction of the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) by Google is seen as a significant development that could reshape the e-commerce landscape, facilitating seamless transactions and enhancing user experience [21][24][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of data element value release in 2026, marking it as a pivotal year for the digital economy and data market reforms [30][35][38] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Last week, the computer sector experienced a high and then a pullback, with an overall increase of 4.14%, ranking first among major industries in the Yangtze River region, and accounting for 11.21% of total market turnover [2][4][15] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: 1. Domestic large model manufacturers 2. Major domestic cloud service providers 3. Vertical scenario agent manufacturers 4. The domestic computing power supply chain, particularly AI chip companies like Haiguang Information and Cambrian [6][40] AI and E-commerce Developments - The UCP aims to create a standardized communication framework for AI agents, merchants, and platforms, potentially transforming the e-commerce industry by reducing decision-making time and enhancing transaction efficiency [21][24][28] - The report notes that AI-assisted shopping is expected to become mainstream, with significant growth projected in the AI e-commerce market from 23.93 billion yuan in 2020 to 50.44 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.50% [29] Data Element Value Release - The report highlights that 2026 is designated as the "Year of Data Element Value Release," with a focus on market-oriented reforms and the establishment of data standards to facilitate the flow and utilization of data [30][35][38] - The establishment of a data property rights registration system is anticipated to enhance data circulation and unlock value within the data economy [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the annual economic growth rate reached the target of 5%. Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased, while investment's contribution declined. Looking ahead to 2026, the real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. [2][7] - The bond market's pricing of the fundamentals may still exhibit an asymmetry of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news." The view of a weak and volatile long - term bond market in the near term is maintained, and the recovery window may come later in the first quarter. [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Economic Data Overview - The Q4 real GDP in 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations, and the annual cumulative year - on - year growth rate successfully achieved the target of 5%. In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size rose by 0.4 pct to 5.2%, higher than the expected 4.9%; the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped by 0.4 pct to 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.5%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped by 1.2 pct to - 3.8%, worse than the expected - 2.4%. [4] 3.2 Economic Growth Drivers - Consumption and exports' contribution to GDP growth increased to 2.6% and 1.64% respectively, while investment's contribution declined to 0.77%. There was still price pressure. The Q4 real GDP growth rate was 4.5% year - on - year, down 0.3 pct from Q3, and it declined quarter by quarter throughout the year, reaching the lowest level since 2023. The price level improved quarter by quarter, with the GDP deflator's year - on - year growth rate dropping to around - 0.67%, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.8% year - on - year, showing marginal improvement but remaining at a low level. [7] 3.3 Industrial Sector - In December, the industrial added value was 5.2% year - on - year, 0.4 pct higher than the previous value, and 0.49% month - on - month. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned positive to 3.2%. The service industry production index was 5% year - on - year, 0.8 pct faster than the previous month. By sector, the mining industry was a major drag, with its year - on - year growth rate dropping by 0.9 pct to 5.4%, while the manufacturing industry's year - on - year growth rate increased by 1.1 pct to 5.7%. High - end manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, with the year - on - year growth rates of pharmaceutical manufacturing, special equipment manufacturing, and computer and communication equipment manufacturing accelerating by 4.6, 3.4, and 2.6 pct respectively. The output of high - tech products such as industrial robots and integrated circuits maintained a high month - on - month growth rate. In 2025, the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.4% compared to the previous year, contributing 26.1% to the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. [7] 3.4 Investment Sector - The decline in fixed asset investment widened. Real estate investment continued to decline due to the drag of housing prices, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment weakened overall against the backdrop of enterprises' concentrated debt repayment, debt reduction, and "anti - involution." In December, the month - on - month growth rate of fixed asset investment dropped to - 15.0%, and the month - on - month decline of private investment was about - 17.2%. Real estate investment's month - on - month decline widened to - 37.5%, the sales area decreased by 16.6% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 24.2% year - on - year. The prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened. The insufficient funds of real estate enterprises still restricted construction starts and completions, but the new construction area stabilized, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed. Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with the month - on - month growth rate of broad - based infrastructure investment at - 15.9%, and the "crowding - out effect" of debt reduction may still have had an impact. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, but in December, the month - on - month growth rate was - 10.5%, indicating that enterprises were cautious about investment against the "anti - involution" background. The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry increased from 74.1% in Q1 to 75.2% in Q4. [7] 3.5 Consumption Sector - The growth rate of social retail sales declined, and residents' income and expenditure continued to slow down. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 0.9%, the lowest since March 2023. The off - season effect was evident, with commodity retail (0.7%) and catering (2.2%) remaining at low levels, and the year - on - year growth rate of catering above designated size at - 1.1%. The effect of the "trade - in" subsidy may have weakened, and consumption of household appliances (- 18.7%), furniture (- 2.2%), and automobiles (- 5.0%) remained under pressure. However, the retail sales of communication equipment (20.9%) maintained a high growth rate. In Q4, the real cumulative year - on - year growth rate of residents' per capita disposable income dropped by 0.2 pct to 5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of consumption expenditure dropped by 0.3 pct to 4.4%. [7] 3.6 Outlook for 2026 - The real GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8% in 2026, showing a "first down then up" trend due to the high base effect. On the investment side, the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year proposed to "stabilize and reverse the decline of investment." This year, the investment growth rate is expected to stop falling and stabilize with the support of the concept of "investing in people" and "two important" projects. On the production and demand side, the transformation of old and new driving forces is accelerating, and service consumption, high - end manufacturing, and exports may maintain their resilience. [2][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The beginning of 2026 is marked as the "Year of Data Element Value Release," with a strategic focus on market-oriented reform for data element allocation, aiming to clarify the development path for digital economy work [2][4] - The establishment of a data property registration system is expected to accelerate, promoting data circulation and usage, thereby releasing the value of data elements [6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high-quality data resources, particularly in sectors like healthcare, finance, and industrial fields that possess scarce data, as well as firms with strong capabilities in data processing, management, and analysis [6] Summary by Sections Data Element Value Release - Multiple regions have identified 2026 as the "Year of Data Element Value Release," with the core goal of facilitating data flow and configuration, activating supply and demand, and integrating data elements into value creation [6][12] - The transition from "infrastructure building" to "efficiency release" is anticipated, leading to a revaluation of data element value that will benefit the entire industry chain [6][12] Data Standardization - National standards for data are expected to be established, with over 30 key data standards planned for release in 2026, focusing on public data, high-quality datasets, and data infrastructure [12] - The establishment of data standardization is seen as crucial for addressing issues related to rights confirmation, pricing, supply and demand, and trust, thereby facilitating the practical release of data element value [12]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 5.0%, consistent with 2024, achieving the annual growth target[2] - In Q4 2025, the GDP growth rate slowed to 4.5% year-on-year, aligning with Wind's expectations[6] - The nominal GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to decline slightly to 4.0% due to an expanded price drop, with the GDP deflator index decreasing from -0.8% in 2024 to -1.0% in 2025[6] Production and Investment - Industrial value added in December rebounded to a growth rate of 5.2%, indicating stabilization in production despite a slowdown in the second and third industries[6] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at -3.8% for 2025, with December's monthly growth rate dropping to -16.0%[6] - Manufacturing investment growth fell to -10.5%, primarily due to rapid declines in midstream equipment processing industries[6] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth for 2025 is expected to be 3.7%, with December's growth rate at 0.9%[6] - Durable goods consumption drag has weakened, with essential consumption growth declining while optional consumption, including automobiles and home appliances, showed recovery[6] Policy and Economic Outlook - The economic decline in 2025 is not a cause for major concern, as the second half's slowdown is attributed to strong performance in the first half, allowing for policy leeway[6] - Exports and service consumption are anticipated to be key drivers for China's economy in 2026, supporting a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From January 12 - 16, 2026, the central bank conducted short - term reverse repurchase net investment, with 6M outright reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan and a net investment of 30 billion yuan. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined, and the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected net payment of government bonds is 20.65 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit is about 70.64 billion yuan. On January 16, 2026, the median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years and decreased by 0.01 years week - on - week respectively [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funds - **Fund Investment and Maturity**: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase investment was 951.5 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 138.7 billion yuan, achieving a net investment of 812.8 billion yuan. On January 15, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 6M outright reverse repurchase, with 60 billion yuan of 6M outright reverse repurchase maturing this month, resulting in a net investment of 30 billion yuan. From January 19 - 23, 2026, the maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchase is 951.5 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [6]. - **Fund Interest Rates**: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.36% and 1.43% respectively, up 9.3 and 9.1 basis points compared with January 5 - 9, 2026; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.55% respectively, up 5.5 and 4.3 basis points compared with January 5 - 9, 2026. The short - term disturbing factors for the funds in the future include tax payment, capital freezing for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and a month - on - month increase in the net payment scale of government bonds [7]. 2. Government Bonds - **Net Financing Scale**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net financing of government bonds was about - 48.5 billion yuan, about 481.2 billion yuan more reduction compared with January 5 - 11, 2026. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about - 119.2 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds was about 70.7 billion yuan. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected net financing of government bonds is about 20.65 billion yuan, among which the net financing of treasury bonds is about - 10.7 billion yuan, and the net financing of local government bonds is about 217.2 billion yuan [8]. 3. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of January 16, 2026, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.5200% and 1.5950% respectively, down 1.3 basis points and basically unchanged compared with January 9, 2026; the maturity yield of 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.6250%, down 0.8 basis points compared with January 9, 2026 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From January 12 - 18, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 254.9 billion yuan. From January 19 - 25, 2026, the expected maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is 70.64 billion yuan, and the maturity renewal scale decreased slightly compared with the previous week [9]. 4. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From January 12 - 16, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.88%, compared with 108.14% from January 5 - 9, 2026 [10]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On January 16, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.95 years, up 0.06 years week - on - week, at the 93.5% quantile since the beginning of 2022; the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.87 years, down 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 58.8% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].