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望远镜系列30之2025Q3财报总结:全年确定性渐强,期待库存周期切换和Nike修复共振β
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 14:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report summarizes the Q3 2025 financial performance of overseas sports brands, highlighting sales performance, profitability, and inventory status, indicating a gradual improvement in overall performance [2][4] - Revenue performance among major footwear and apparel companies shows divergence, with some brands experiencing strong growth while others face challenges [5][6] - The outlook for the industry suggests a gradual recovery in demand and inventory replenishment, particularly for brands like Adidas and On, while Nike continues to face headwinds [8][36] Revenue Performance - Revenue growth varied significantly among companies in Q3 2025, with Adidas (+12%), On (+35%), and Amer Sports (+30%) showing strong growth, while Nike and VF both reported a decline of -1% [5][19] - The overall revenue performance in Q3 2025 improved compared to Q2, despite some brands continuing to face pressure [5][6] Guidance - The visibility for the full year has improved, with brands like UA restoring full-year guidance, indicating a positive trend despite expected performance divergence [6][26] - Strong growth trends are expected to continue for On and Amer Sports, while Nike and VF are projected to see declines but with signs of improvement [6][31] Inventory - The industry is entering a phase of inventory replenishment, with moderate recovery in demand observed in the U.S. and Europe, although challenges remain in certain markets [7][36] - U.S. apparel inventory levels are in a destocking phase, with wholesale inventory ratios declining since 2023, while retail inventory levels have stabilized [7][36] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to gradually transition into a replenishment phase, with demand showing signs of recovery, particularly in the U.S. apparel sector [8][36] - Brands like Adidas are actively seeking to replenish inventory for growth, while Nike continues to destock amid ongoing challenges [8][36]
海外算力财报综述:算力动能迸发,光织纵横通达
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 11:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [12] Core Insights - Global AI computing demand is surging, with cloud vendors reporting strong financial results and rapidly accumulating cloud orders. Capital expenditures have been revised upward, significantly increasing investment intensity. The delivery of computing cards is accelerating, and the demand for data center interconnectivity continues to rise. The production capacity for optical chips is fully loaded, and there is a shortage of high-speed optical modules, leading to accelerated expansion in production [4][11] Summary by Sections Cloud Vendors: Strong Financial Performance and Increased Capex - Google Cloud achieved revenue of $102.35 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. The GAAP net profit reached $34.98 billion, up 33.0% year-on-year and 24.1% quarter-on-quarter. The operating margin for Google Cloud was 23.7%, reflecting a significant increase in AI-related service demand [23][26] - Amazon reported Q3 2025 revenue of $180.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. AWS revenue reached $33.01 billion, up 20.2% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate in nearly 11 quarters. The backlog of AWS orders reached $200 billion [46][48] - Microsoft’s cloud revenue reached $49.10 billion in Q1 FY26, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The Azure and other cloud services revenue grew by 40%, driven by strong demand for AI solutions [55][57] GPU: Strong Demand and Accelerated Shipments - NVIDIA's GB300 saw large-scale shipments, with data center business booming. AMD's MI350 also experienced strong shipments, with significant collaborations with OpenAI [8] High-Speed Interconnect: Chip Shortages and Industry Expansion - Lumentum's optical chip shipments are strong, with future capacity sold out for six consecutive quarters. Coherent is actively expanding its production capacity for optical modules [9] AIDC Supporting Equipment: Network Architecture Expansion and Liquid Cooling Trends - Arista's revenue continues to grow significantly under the AI network strategy, while Vertiv's orders and revenue are also increasing, driven by the demand for liquid cooling and high-power distribution [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strong positions in the AI and computing sectors, including: - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, New Fiber, Tianfu Communication, Shijia Photon, Huamao Technology - Liquid Cooling: Invec - Optical Fiber and Cable: Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology - Domestic Computing: Guangxun Technology, Huafeng Technology, Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, ZTE Corporation, Unisplendour - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication, Meige Intelligent, Guanghetong, Ao Jie Technology [11]
中控技术(688777):从工业 AI 视角再论中控技术的成长性
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 11:08
[Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司深度丨中控技术(688777.SH) [Table_Title] 从工业 AI 视角再论中控技术的成长性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 一年前我们发布《中控技术深度:不畏浮云,鼎故革新》,对中控技术的成长之路进行系统性复 盘。一年之后再看中控,环境与公司内部均发生变化:于外部环境,不变的是周期压力延续传 导,但 AI+工业融合愈发深入带来更大的成长空间。于公司自身,变化的是转型带来的业务结 构调整,但"技术为底、战略为翼"的驱动内核始终不变。当前公司正站在新阶段起点、向工 业 AI 的新世界迈进。预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 9.1 亿元、11.6 亿元、14.6 亿元, 同比-18.4%、+27.0%、+26.2%,建议重点关注。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 赵智勇 曹小敏 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490517110001 SAC ...
同程旅行(00780)2025Q3 业绩点评:业绩符合预期,利润率持续上行
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The current competitive landscape for Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is stabilizing, with the company focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and deepening its presence in the tourism industry. The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory due to optimized user marketing strategies, refined subsidies, and improved profitability in outbound travel. There remains potential for further increases in sales expense ratios and take rates, which are expected to support continuous growth in profit margins [2][6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][9]. - The core OTA business saw steady growth, with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.9% increase year-on-year. The hotel management business also maintained high growth, with revenue from hotel management and other services reaching 0.821 billion yuan, up 34.9% [9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan for the same years, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [2][9].
小鹏汽车-W(09868):小鹏汽车2025年11月销量点评:新车交付3.7万辆,同比持续增长,环比有所下滑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK) [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车 2025 年 11 月销量点评:新车交付 3.7 万辆,同比持续增长,环比有所下滑 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车发布 2025 年 11 月销量。11 月公司共交付新车 36,728 台,同比+18.9%,环比-12.6%。 2025 年 1-11 月公司累计交付新车共 39.2 万台,同比+155.5%。智能驾驶持续领先,随着渠道 变革和营销体系加强,叠加强势新车周期开启,公司销量有望稳步提升。MONA M03 和 P7+开 启公司新车周期。规模提升、平台和技术降本效果将进一步体现,叠加软件盈利的商业模式拓 展以及出海持续增长,公司未来盈利具备较大弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 小鹏汽车发布 2025 年 11 月 ...
宇通客车(600066):11月销量点评:总量同环比提升,维持全年销量目标,期待12月份放量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨宇通客车(600066.SH) [Table_Title] 宇通客车 11 月销量点评:总量同环比提升,维 持全年销量目标,期待 12 月份放量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年 11 月客车销量。宇通 11 月销售客车 4058 辆,同比+8.6%,环比+33.5%, 其中大中客车销量 3451 辆,同比+25.8%,环比+40.2%;2025 年 1-11 月共销售客车 4.1 万 辆,同比+6.1%,大中客销量 3.3 万辆,同比+0.7%。全球客车龙头,长期成长性较好+持续高 分红能力,凸显投资价值。国内市场,座位客车持续增长,"以旧换新"政策加码,促进新能源 公交增长;海外市场,全球化+高端化战略推进,出口凸显盈利水平,支撑公司业绩持续提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [ ...
比亚迪(002594):2025年11月销量点评:总销量环比持续增长,出海销量达13万辆超预期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨比亚迪(002594.SZ) [Table_Title] 比亚迪 2025 年 11 月销量点评:总销量环比持 续增长,出海销量达 13 万辆超预期 报告要点 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 比亚迪(002594.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Summary] 11 月销量环比持续增长,出海销量超 13 万辆,创历史新高。公司 11 月整体销量 48.0 万辆, 同比-5.3%,环比+8.7%,乘用车销量 47.5 万辆,同比-5.8%,环比+8.7%。分品牌来看,11 月 海洋王朝销量环比改善,11 月海洋王朝/方程豹/腾势销量分别为 42.4/3.7/1.3 万辆,同比分别- 12.7%/+339.0%/+32.5%,环比分别+7.2%/+20.5%/+30.8%,11 月仰望销量 703 辆,同比大幅 提升 ...
长城汽车(601633):点评:11月销量13.3万辆,新坦克400贡献增量,出口再创新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:14
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车(601633.SH) [Table_Title] 长城汽车点评:11 月销量 13.3 万辆,新坦克 400 贡献增量,出口再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长城汽车 2025 年 11 月销量 13.3 万辆,同比+4.6%,环比-6.9%,其中出口销量 5.7 万辆,销 量占比达 43.0%,新能源销量 4.0 万辆,新能源乘用车销量占比达 34.2%。公司加速全球化布 局,坚定新能源转型,持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看,公司四大拓 展战略打开销量长期增长空间,智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524070004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长城汽车(601633.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车点评:2] 11 ...
美团-W(03690): 2025Q3 业绩点评:中高价订单份额稳固,关注后续补贴趋势
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 08:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]
锂电材料深度:产业望迎来大周期拐点
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-04 05:30
联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 锂电材料深度:产业望迎来大周期拐点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经几年锂电下游需求的快速增长,上游材料端有望迎来大周期拐点。我们看好布局磷矿石、 工业级磷酸一铵、磷酸铁和(或)磷酸铁锂的企业云天化、兴发集团、川恒股份、云图控股、 万华化学、龙佰集团;PVDF 行业巨化股份、东岳集团;DMC 行业华鲁恒升;VC、六氟磷酸 锂、LiSFI 行业天赐材料、新宙邦等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC:S0490516100002 SAC:S0490514040001 SAC:S0490522030001 SFC:BUT911 SFC:BQK482 叶之楠 王明 王呈 SAC:S0490520090003 SAC:S0490521030001 SAC:S0490525040004 SFC:BVA881 王晓振 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 33 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...