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科沃斯(603486):Q4内销或有拖累,品类延展有望攫取增量
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-06 08:47
[Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年业绩预增公告:公司预计 2025 年全年实现归母净利润 17.00~18.00 亿元, 较上年同期增加 8.94~9.94 亿元,同比增长 110.90%~123.30%,预计实现扣非归母净利润 16.00~17.00 亿元,较上年同期增加 8.84~9.84 亿元,同比增长 123.40%~137.36%。对应单 Q4 来看,公司实现归母净利润 2.82~3.82 亿元,同比增长 47.62%~99.96%,实现扣非归母净 利润 3.16~4.16 亿元,同比增长 70.18%~124.12%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC:S0490517070017 SFC:BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨科沃斯(603486.SH) [Table_Title] 科沃斯:Q4 内销或有拖累,品类延展有望攫取 增量 报告要点 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 科沃斯(603486.SH) ...
招商蛇口(001979):招商蛇口2025年业绩预告点评:周期压力集中释放,经营表现边际改善
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-06 01:32
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨招商蛇口(001979.SZ) [Table_Title] 周期压力集中释放,经营表现边际改善 ——招商蛇口 2025 年业绩预告点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩方面,公司 2025 年周期压力集中释放,但仍实现盈利,若后续迎来景气拐点,业绩或有 较大弹性。经营方面,公司 2025 年销售规模排名提升至行业第四,拿地强度保持相对积极, 且公司发行优先股方案有序推进,资产负债表持续优化,综合竞争力有望保持行业前列。公司 表观 PE 偏高,但实际 PB 相对较低,估值修复潜力较大,维持"买入"评级。 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC:S0490520040001 SAC:S0490522080002 SFC:BUV416 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 招商蛇口(001979.SZ) cjzqdt11111 风险提示 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-02-05 公 ...
建投能源(000600):建投能源:冀电龙头,擎势腾飞
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-05 06:20
[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨建投能源(000600.SZ) [Table_Title] 建投能源:冀电龙头,擎势腾飞 %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘主要火电公司的表现,2025 年火电投资呈现出"北移"和看重业绩释放的特征,建投能源 盈利的持续修复驱动公司股价表现优异。聚焦公司火电经营,公司深耕河北地区,区域电源结 构支撑公司具备优于行业的电价韧性,构筑起公司强大的区域护城河;而展望来看河北区域电 力供需预计将保持紧平衡,为公司保持电价相对优势提供强有力支撑。此外,公司在建及储备 项目丰厚,参控股火电机组投产后预计将为公司带来 34%的权益装机成长空间,2026 年公司 将步入明确的成长兑现期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC:S0490517080003 SAC:S0490520120001 SAC:S0490520110001 SFC:BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC:S049 ...
固定收益|点评报告:银行存款短期化,而非流失化
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-05 04:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Chinese banking industry's deposits may become "short - term" rather than "lost". The high and rising household savings rate in China means there is no basis for deposit loss. With the maturity of time deposits and the low - interest - rate environment, deposits may shift to short - term. The bank's deposit loss pressure is not obvious, but there is a long - term asset - liability duration matching pressure, and the bond market is expected to remain volatile [2][8][29] Summary by Directory Bank 2026 is Still a Peak for Time Deposit Maturity - In 2022 and 2023, due to credit expansion and increased government bond issuance, commercial banks significantly increased deposit absorption. 2022 and 2023 were the early stages of the decline in bank deposit listing rates, and 2 - year and 3 - year time deposits were popular. So 2025 and 2026 are the concentrated maturity stages. The annual increments of time deposits of six state - owned banks in 2022 and 2023 increased by 3.4 trillion yuan and 3.1 trillion yuan respectively [13] - Based on the deposit maturity structure of six state - owned banks, the total time deposit maturity scale in 2026 is expected to be about 95 trillion yuan. Banks need to address the pressure of deposit - taking scale and guide the deposit term structure to meet their asset - liability arrangements [15] Bank Deposits are "Short - term" Rather than "Lost" - China's household savings rate is relatively high globally and has been rising in recent years. As of 2025, China's household sector savings rate was 32%, 3 pct higher on average from 2020 - 2025 than from 2014 - 2019. According to IMF data, China's savings rate in 2025 was 42%, much higher than that of the US (17%), Japan (30%), and the Eurozone (25%). This means there is no basis for bank deposit loss [18] - With the maturity of time deposits and the low - interest - rate environment, bank deposits may become "short - term". In 2025, the interest rate spreads between 5 - year and 1 - year, 3 - year and 1 - year time deposits of five state - owned banks were only 35bps and 30bps respectively, which may lead to a shortening of deposit terms. The current proportion of current deposits in the Chinese banking industry is low (about 47% in corporate deposits and 31% in household deposits), while in Japan it was close to 80%. As time - deposit interest rates decline, the proportion of current deposits may bottom out and slowly rise [20] - The bank's deposit loss pressure is not obvious, and the relatively ample funds on the liability side, along with the possible under - performance of the credit "good start", have brought the bank's bond - investment motivation and a bond - market recovery. However, in the medium - and long - term, banks still face asset - liability duration matching pressure, and the lack of a clear tendency to shorten the duration of local government bond issuance adds to this pressure, so the bond market is expected to remain volatile [29]
——建材周专题2026W5:加大配置消费建材优质龙头,看好电子布景气
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-05 04:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes increasing allocations to high-quality leading companies in consumer building materials and anticipates price increases in electronic fabrics due to shortages [2][3]. - Consumer building materials are highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to significant supply exits, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 97% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum boards, and 77% for cement in 2024 compared to their peak levels [3]. - The report identifies three main lines for 2026: the stock chain, the African chain, and the AI chain, suggesting a shift in demand dynamics and growth opportunities in these areas [7]. Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement shipments have seen a slight month-on-month increase, while glass inventory continues to decline [6]. - In late January, cement demand showed slight recovery due to warmer weather in southern regions, with a shipment rate of approximately 32% in key domestic areas, up by 3 percentage points [6][23]. Outlook for 2026 - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: stock chain, African chain, and AI chain. The stock chain is expected to see a qualitative change in demand, with home renovation demand projected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030 [7]. - The African chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for leading companies such as Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [7]. - The AI chain focuses on the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with significant opportunities for domestic replacements in low CTE and low-Dk products [7]. Electronic Fabrics - The report is optimistic about price increases in electronic fabrics due to dual demand dynamics, with AI electronic fabrics benefiting from high demand and ordinary electronic fabrics facing supply constraints [5]. - The shortage of weaving machines is expected to continue, leading to sustained price increases [5]. Cement and Glass Market - The report notes that the national average price of cement is 349.84 yuan per ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74 yuan [24]. - The national average price of glass is reported at 63.11 yuan per weight box, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.50 yuan [36].
大唐发电(601991):单季经营延续改善,全年业绩弹性释放
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-05 04:45
丨证券研究报告丨 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 张子淳 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨大唐发电(601991.SH) [Table_Title] 单季经营延续改善,全年业绩弹性释放 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年公司实现上网电量 2731.09 亿千瓦时,同比增长 1.41%,其中第四季度公司完成上网 电量 668.68 亿千瓦时,同比微降 0.50%。电价方面,2025 年公司平均上网电价约为 0.435 元 /千瓦时,同比降低约 0.017 元/千瓦时。在燃料成本仍同比改善的带动下,四季度公司主业经营 延续改善趋势,公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 68 亿元到 78 亿元,同比增加 51%到 73%; 四季度公司预计实现归母净利润 0.88 亿元到 10.88 亿元,同比增加 14%到 1317%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490517080003 SAC:S0490520120001 SAC:S0490520110001 SAC:S0490523080003 SFC:BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...
固定收益|点评报告:信用情绪降温了吗?
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-04 23:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 26th to January 30th, the performance of general credit bonds was stronger than that of secondary capital bonds, possibly due to some institutions taking phased profit - taking after the yields of secondary capital bonds declined for two consecutive weeks. Large banks increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds due to abundant liabilities, small and medium - sized banks became more cautious, wealth management products increased their allocation of low - volatility amortized cost - based bond funds under the net - value constraint, and insurance preferred local government bonds. In the next few weeks, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds will benefit specific - term credit bonds, and the market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the buying power of funds and insurance, with different yield performances for each term. In terms of future allocation, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds with more attractive interest - rate differentials, and for secondary capital bonds, focus on the allocation opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties after phased profit - taking and the warming of market sentiment [3]. - The overall credit bond market recently followed the fluctuations of interest - rate bonds but showed relative resilience. Urban investment bonds generally outperformed secondary and perpetual bonds. The short - end interest rates of interest - rate bonds rose due to the temporary tightening of the capital market, while the long - end and ultra - long - end interest rates fluctuated under the alternating influence of stock market sentiment and policy expectations. The weakening participation of trading - type funds in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds led to a shift of funds to credit bonds, which is a key reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds [7]. - The behaviors of major investment institutions have significantly diverged, affecting the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds. Large banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds due to asset shortages and abundant liabilities, which created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. At the end of 2025, wealth management products slightly increased their holdings of credit bonds but significantly increased their holdings of public funds, cash, and deposits. This reflects the demand for stable asset net values under the net - value transformation [8]. - In the future, asset supply and specific product cycles will directly affect the credit bond market. Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the market interest rates remained stable due to the active participation of insurance and other allocation funds, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The upcoming opening peak of amortized cost - based bond funds in the next 16 weeks will bring re - allocation demand for corresponding - term credit bonds, and the deepening of the net - value transformation of wealth management products may increase the demand for medium - and long - term amortized bond funds, benefiting medium - and long - term credit bonds [9]. - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, the structural change of bond - type funds, and the hot sales of dividend - insurance products. Currently, the market has shown signs of differentiation. The yields of 1 - 3 - year varieties have fallen back to near the previous lows, with a narrowing spread protection space, while the 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year varieties still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high allocation cost - effectiveness. The market rhythm is expected to slow down, and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have certain allocation value. In terms of the allocation strategy, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds with relatively sufficient spread protection [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 10Y Treasury Bonds: Large Banks Net Buy, Small and Medium - Sized Banks Net Sell - Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds gradually declined, the net purchase volume of 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds by large banks showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a single - day peak of 14.105 billion yuan. The increase in large - bank purchases of 10 - year treasury bonds has created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. On the demand side, bank deposits have shown super - seasonal growth, increasing the scale of on - balance - sheet funds and reducing the pressure on the liability side. On the supply side, the slow issuance of government bonds, especially local government bonds, has created an asset gap, forcing large banks to increase their net purchases [19]. - In contrast, small and medium - sized banks have a more obvious left - hand trading characteristic in bond investment. Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds declined, their willingness to allocate medium - and long - term treasury bonds decreased. Their conservative trading strategy is a passive choice due to the weakening of the traditional profit model. The narrowing of the interest - rate spread of 3 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit between representative city commercial banks and large banks has limited their bond - allocation funds, and the increasing difficulty and risk of obtaining capital gains through trading in the volatile bond market have made them more cautious, focusing on stable coupon income [24]. Bank Wealth Management: Slightly Increase Holdings of Credit Bonds, Focus on Low - Volatility and High - Liquidity Assets - At the end of 2025, bank wealth management slightly increased its holdings of credit bonds, focused on increasing the allocation of public funds, cash, and bank deposits, and reduced its holdings of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of bond investment was at a low level in recent years. The increase in public - fund investment may be related to the increase in the allocation of amortized cost - based bond funds and bond ETFs, and the increase in cash and bank - deposit investment may be due to the temporary increase in the supply of inter - bank deposits at the end of the year and the relatively attractive interest rates. The decrease in the scale of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit may be due to the contraction of the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30]. New Trends in the Long - Term Bond Market: Slower Brokerage Trading, Insurance Allocation Shift - At the beginning of the year, the concentrated short - selling behavior of brokerage self - operation in 30 - year treasury bonds, combined with the weak承接 power of insurance and other allocation funds, suppressed the trading sentiment of interest - rate bonds. Trading - type investors, represented by funds, reduced their participation in 30 - year treasury bonds and shifted some funds to credit bonds, which is an important reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds. The selling amount and borrowing balance of 20 - 30Y treasury bonds by brokerage self - operation have declined recently, but they are still at a relatively high level. Insurance institutions prefer local government bonds over 30 - year treasury bonds, mainly for the relatively higher coupon and continuous tax advantages [33]. Is the Supply of Government Bonds in January in Line with Expectations? - Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the active participation of allocation funds, mainly insurance, in local government bonds effectively alleviated the supply pressure, and the market interest rates remained stable, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The actual issuance volume of government bonds in January 2026 was higher than the planned volume, and the issuance scale was basically the same as that of the same period in 2025. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the issuance scale was actually similar to that of the previous year [40]. Future 16 Weeks: Peak Opening of Amortized Bond Funds, Benefiting Corresponding - Term Credit Bonds - The next 16 weeks will be the peak opening period of amortized bond funds, with those with a fixed - opening period of less than 1 year and more than 5 years being the main types, which will have a positive impact on corresponding - term credit bonds. The demand of wealth management products for stable net values may benefit medium - and long - term credit bonds. The opening scale in February is small, but there will be a peak in March. The term structure shows that in February, bonds with a term of more than 5 years are the main type, and in March, bonds with a term of less than 1 year are the main type, which may increase the demand for corresponding - term credit bonds [48]. Adjustment of Cash - Bond Trading Data Caliber: Institutional Classification and Callable Bond Terms - The adjustment of the institutional net - purchase data caliber implemented in 2026 includes two dimensions. One is the simplification of the classification of all - market institutions, and the other is the adjustment of the calculation rule of callable bond terms from being based on the maturity date to being based on the exercise date. After the adjustment, the configuration behavior of wealth - management funds needs to be tracked through the "other" category, and the previous method of judging institutional allocation behavior of secondary capital bonds based on the net - purchase data of 5 - 10Y "other" - type bonds is no longer applicable [52]. How Long Will the Secondary Capital Bond Market Last? - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the improvement of policy expectations, the structural adjustment of bond funds, and the allocation demand of dividend - insurance products. Currently, insurance mainly undertakes long - term secondary capital bonds such as 10Y, while funds have become the main buyers of medium - and short - term secondary capital bonds since December 2025. However, due to the influence of the spread level of secondary capital bonds of different terms, the daily net - purchase growth rate of funds has slowed down. The yields of 1 - 3Y secondary capital bonds have fallen back to near the lows after the release of the draft new public - fund fee regulations in September 2025, with a narrowing spread protection space, while medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high investment cost - effectiveness [59]. Bond Allocation Strategy: Slightly Cooled Market Sentiment, Focus on Credit Bond Catch - Up - In the past four weeks, the market has shifted from the dominance of secondary capital bonds in mid - January to the recent leadership of general credit bonds. Based on the current interest - rate differential quantile, valuation level, and rotation rhythm, the next - week allocation priority is adjusted as follows: urban investment bonds (AA+, 5Y) > urban investment bonds (AAA, 5Y) > secondary capital bonds (AAA -, 5Y). The 5Y AA+ urban investment bonds have coupon advantages and certain credit - sinking space, and have clear valuation - repair potential; the 5Y AAA urban investment bonds have low credit risk and good liquidity; the 5Y AAA - secondary capital bonds have a relatively reasonable valuation in their sector. For previously strong varieties, such as 5Y AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds and 10Y local government bonds, caution is recommended in allocation [65].
金融制造行业2月投资观点及金股推荐-20260204
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-04 11:06
Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including China Resources Land and Beike-W [15][18][20][21]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuation of strong supply and weak demand characteristics, with short-term growth pressure remaining manageable [9]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a valuation recovery opportunity for quality developers due to a resonance between fundamentals and policies [10]. - The banking sector is witnessing a recovery from oversold conditions, with stock prices rebounding ahead of improvements in the funding environment [20]. - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven high-quality development, with a focus on high-performing stocks [22]. - The new energy sector has established a bottom line, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [25]. - The machinery sector is gaining order resilience from overseas solar expansion and new business developments, while space solar technology opens growth opportunities [31]. - The environmental sector is focusing on carbon neutrality opportunities, with overseas expansion and metal prices providing elasticity [33]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The sector is expected to face challenges in 2026, but recent policy easing and improved second-hand housing sales indicate a potential recovery [14]. - China Resources Land is highlighted as a leading developer with strong operational capabilities and a solid financial position, projected to achieve a net profit of 26.2 billion, 27 billion, and 28.2 billion from 2025 to 2027 [15]. Banking - Nanjing Bank is recommended due to its expected double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable asset quality and improved net interest margins [21]. Non-Bank Financials - New China Life Insurance is noted for its high elasticity and potential for improved returns on equity, with projected intrinsic values of 292.1 billion and 329.0 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [24]. New Energy - The storage sector is expected to see demand stability supported by national capacity pricing, while lithium battery technology is anticipated to rebound with improved economic conditions [25]. - JunDa Co. is recognized for its strategic partnerships and potential growth in the space solar sector, with projected profits increasing significantly by 2027 [27]. Machinery - The machinery sector is benefiting from overseas solar project expansions, with companies like DiEr Laser positioned to capitalize on new technologies and increased order volumes [31][32]. Environmental - Weiming Environmental is highlighted for its potential in the Indonesian waste-to-energy market, with expected project launches in early 2026 [39]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.88 billion and 3.44 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [39]. Light Industry - The light industry is seeing a rebound in export-driven companies, with a focus on quality stocks that can leverage cost efficiencies and supply chain advantages [43]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the transition of military technology to civilian applications and increased military trade, with key recommendations including Aviation Power and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [51][53].
联化科技(002250):农药稳健增长,医药 CDMO 前景广阔
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-04 10:42
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading provider of chemical technology solutions, focusing on agricultural CDMO, pharmaceutical small molecules, and small nucleic acid CDMO, with significant achievements in functional chemicals [3][5]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing steady growth, while the pharmaceutical CDMO sector shows promising prospects, particularly in small nucleic acids, which are gaining traction in the market [6][7]. - The company is expanding its footprint in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery materials, which presents substantial growth potential [8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1985 and located in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, the company has evolved from producing flavor and fragrance intermediates to becoming a global custom manufacturing service provider in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and functional chemicals [5][19]. - The company has established a comprehensive business platform that meets diverse customer needs across various stages of product development and lifecycle [21][24]. Agricultural Sector - The global agricultural industry is entering a mature phase, with projected sales of $77.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 6.8% year-over-year decline. However, the sector is expected to expand steadily due to ongoing population growth [6][53]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by oligopolistic structures, with the top five companies holding a 57.4% market share in 2024, driven by innovation and strong brand channels [6][53]. Pharmaceutical CDMO - The company has been involved in small molecule CDMO for over a decade, with a robust revenue growth trajectory since 2017. A significant rebound is expected in 2025, with projected revenue of 1.018 billion yuan, a 42.8% increase year-over-year [7]. - The company is expanding into the small nucleic acid drug market, which is projected to see 32 transactions worth $29.022 billion in 2025, highlighting the growing commercial value of this segment [7]. Functional Chemicals - The lithium-ion battery electrolyte market is rapidly growing, with expected shipments reaching 2.235 million tons by 2025, a 46.4% increase. The company is focusing on lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium bis(fluorosulfonyl)imide as key products in this sector [8][24]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for lithium battery materials, with a focus on developing high-performance products [8]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 410 million, 630 million, and 790 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, indicating strong financial growth prospects [9].
可转债周报20260131:转债市场回调后,次新转债会更抗跌吗?-20260204
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-04 10:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Historically, newly - issued convertible bonds showed resilience due to the "no - forced redemption" protection. However, their current valuations have significantly increased, and the valuation gap between newly - issued bonds and the entire market has widened, possibly reflecting the premium pursuit of certainty by funds under the high - valuation background [2][4]. - During the week, the A - share market oscillated weakly, with large - cap stocks outperforming. Cyclical sectors such as petroleum and non - ferrous metals led the gains, and trading activity increased [2][4]. - The convertible bond market weakened overall. Large - cap bonds were relatively resistant to decline, while small and medium - cap bonds were weaker. The average daily trading volume decreased. Valuations were compressed overall, implied volatility and the median price declined but remained at high levels, and market sentiment cooled marginally [2][4]. - Most individual bonds declined. The top - performing bonds had characteristics of low balance and high conversion premium rates [2][4]. - The issuance speed in the primary market accelerated, and the reserve was sufficient. In terms of terms, the willingness to lower the conversion price was weak, and the probability of no forced redemption increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of newly - issued and newly - listed bonds after the correction [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Theme Weekly Review - In the correction at the end of August 2025, newly - issued convertible bonds showed certain resistance to decline. They usually enjoy better liquidity and the "no - forced redemption" mechanism due to not entering the conversion period, resulting in relatively more stable median market prices and more resilient valuations compared to the whole market [12]. - At the end of January 2026, the valuations of newly - issued convertible bonds were generally higher than those in August 2025. The expansion of the valuation gap was mainly due to the high return requirements of some funds and the preference for varieties with stronger return certainty under the consensus of "no - forced redemption" [14]. - During the week from January 25th to January 31st, 2026, the equity market weakened as a whole, with the non - ferrous metal sector performing well. The gold and military - related sub - sectors within the non - ferrous metal and aerospace sectors showed different performances [19]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Indexes Differentiated, Science - Innovation and Mid - Cap Stocks Performed Strongly - During the week, the main A - share indexes oscillated weakly. The Shenzhen Component Index performed relatively weakly, and the ChiNext Index rebounded after a decline but still closed down. In terms of style, large - cap indexes were relatively dominant, while small and medium - cap and science - innovation indexes were weaker [21]. - In terms of funds, the net outflow of main funds in the market expanded during the week, and the average daily trading volume increased [22]. - Cyclical sectors in the A - share market were relatively strong during the week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, and coal sectors led the gains, while commerce and retail, automotive, and national defense and military industries were weaker [25]. - In terms of trading volume, trading was mainly concentrated in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors. The average daily trading volume of the non - ferrous metal sector increased by more than 70% compared to the previous week [27]. - The congestion degree of market sectors still differed significantly. The congestion degree of sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, banks, and media increased, while that of sectors such as commerce and retail, public utilities, and social services decreased [30]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Overall, Small - Cap Indexes Performed Strongly - During the week, the convertible bond market weakened as a whole. The CSI Convertible Bond Index oscillated weakly, with large - cap convertible bond indexes performing relatively strongly and small and medium - cap convertible bond indexes performing weaker. The trading volume decreased slightly, but the average daily trading volume still exceeded 9 billion [33]. - Valuations in the convertible bond market were compressed overall when divided by parity and market price intervals. Only the conversion premium rates in some intervals increased, while those in most intervals decreased significantly [36]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance oscillated weakly during the week, remaining at a historical high. The median market price of convertible bonds also oscillated weakly, still higher than the high point in August 2025 [39]. - Convertible bonds in cyclical sectors showed more flexibility. Coal, petroleum and petrochemicals and other cyclical sectors led the gains. Trading volume was mainly concentrated in the basic chemicals, power equipment, and electronics sectors, with the combined trading volume of these three sectors accounting for more than 35% [43]. - Most individual convertible bonds weakened during the week. Only 109 convertible bonds had an increase in the range of more than or equal to 0, accounting for 28.2% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top - performing and bottom - performing convertible bonds in the conversion period had different characteristics, and the top - performing bonds generally had low bond balances and some had high conversion premium rates [45]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Terms Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation During the Week - Two convertible bonds, Naipu Zhuan 02 and Lianrui Convertible Bond, were listed during the week [49]. - A total of 16 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans in the primary market during the week, with different progress stages. The total scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage reached 8.511 billion yuan [50][51]. Summary of Lowering - related Announcements During the Week - Four convertible bonds issued announcements indicating that they were expected to trigger a lowering of the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.2 [56][59]. - Five convertible bonds issued announcements of not lowering the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.6 [58][59]. - One convertible bond issued an announcement proposing to lower the conversion price during the week, with a PB of the underlying stock of 4.3 [59]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements During the Week - Fourteen convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption during the week [61][64]. - Two convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed early during the week [62][64]. - One convertible bond announced early redemption during the week [60][63].