丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如何演绎？— —长江纺服周专题 26W04 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，纺织服装行业部分原材料价格呈现分化走势，其中羽绒及羊毛价格明显回升，而外棉和 涤纶价格仍处低位震荡。我国作为全球主要羊毛消费国，对澳大利亚进口依赖较高，澳毛价格 波动对国内毛纺企业盈利及股价影响显著。通过复盘澳毛价格走势可以发现毛价上涨通常受需 求修复与供给收缩共同驱动，周期多为 4-6 年。在当前供给偏紧、需求边际改善的背景下，毛 价具备稳中向上的基础，并有望通过低价库存消化与顺价能力改善毛纺企业盈利能力，进一步 对相关公司的对股价形成积极催化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 陈信志 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 毛价周期再起，纺企盈利弹性如 ...

[Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 $${\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}{\mathrm{iii}}\{8\}$$ 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨均胜电子（600699.SH） [Table_Title] 均胜电子点评：扣非利润符合预期，期待智驾及 机器人带动公司新成长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年预计归母净利润 13.5 亿元，同比+40.6%；扣非后归母净利润 15.0 亿元，同比 +17.0%。受益于丰富的客户结构，新获订单的持续转化，公司收入规模持续保持稳健增长。随 着供应链的持续优化、运营效率的不断提升，公司盈利能力持续增强。公司将在汽车领域积累 的研发、产品、技术、高端制造和客户优势系统性延伸至机器人领域，率先构建"汽车+机器人 Tier1"双轨战略，打开未来新 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨国电电力（600795.SH） [Table_Summary] 2025 年四季度公司完成上网电量 1122.50 亿千瓦时，较上年同期增长 4.92%。电价方面，四 季度公司平均上网电价为 0.414 元/千瓦时，同比降低 0.021 元/千瓦时。整体来看，装机规模 的大幅提升为火电及光伏的电量表现提供有力支撑，带动公司电量稳健增长，但电价同比回落 将限制四季度营收增速。考虑到煤价中枢环比回升以及盈利能力较高的水电板块表现偏弱，公 司四季度主业经营或有所承压。全年来看，在前三季度主业经营持续改善的带动下，公司全年 经营业绩仍展望积极。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 张子淳 [Table_Title] 单季表现边际转弱，全年经营仍展望积极 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research. ...

Core Insights - The hydrogen industry in China is experiencing steady growth in both supply and demand, with applications expanding across various sectors. The country is the largest hydrogen producer globally, with an expected production of approximately 36.5 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [4][17]. - The economic viability of hydrogen energy is improving due to declining green electricity costs, inclusion in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) program, and technological advancements in cost reduction. The transition from technical cost reduction to large-scale cost reduction is anticipated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][8]. - The hydrogen industry chain, including production, storage, transportation, and application, is developing rapidly, warranting attention [4][9]. Supply and Demand Status - China's hydrogen production is projected to reach 36.5 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% over the past five years. The global hydrogen production is expected to be nearly 100 million tons, growing by approximately 2.7% year-on-year [17][24]. - Hydrogen is primarily used in traditional industrial applications, with emerging sectors like transportation and metallurgy showing a compound growth rate of about 7.1%, significantly higher than the overall industry growth [8][21]. Policy Framework - Hydrogen energy has been recognized as a crucial component of the new energy system, with significant emphasis from top leadership. The formal inclusion of hydrogen in the energy category by the Energy Law in November 2024 is expected to enhance the industry's development [8][30]. - The government has set a phased target for 2027, focusing on the high-quality development of energy equipment, which will guide the hydrogen sector [30][34]. Cost Reduction Pathways - Multiple factors are contributing to the cost reduction of hydrogen, including: 1. Decreasing costs of green electricity, with projected costs for photovoltaic power dropping to 0.15-0.20 yuan/kWh, allowing green hydrogen costs to fall to 10.36-13.22 yuan/kg [8][40]. 2. Inclusion of electrolysis water hydrogen in the CCER program, which can shorten the investment payback period from 9.21 years to 8.62 years [8][46]. 3. Technological advancements leading to significant cost reductions in electrolyzers and fuel cells, with average prices decreasing by 11%-24% over recent years [8][49]. 4. Increased subsidies and pilot projects across the entire industry chain, which are expected to further drive down costs [8][9]. Industry Chain Development - The hydrogen production segment is expected to see a significant increase in electrolyzer bidding, with projections of over 4.5 GW by 2025, compared to 1.5 GW and 1.2 GW in 2023 and 2024, respectively [9]. - Storage and transportation remain bottlenecks, with ongoing efforts to develop a large-scale, low-cost, and safe hydrogen transport system [9][19]. - By the end of 2025, the number of hydrogen refueling stations in China is expected to increase by approximately 2.6 times compared to 2020, with a high proportion of comprehensive energy stations [9][20]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the hydrogen sector, including companies that empower shareholders, pure hydrogen-related companies, and those with stable main businesses that view hydrogen as a potential growth point. Notable companies include Ice Wheel Environment, Yihua Tong, and Longjing Environmental Protection [10].

行业研究丨深度报告丨机械 [Table_Title] 矿山机械系列二：周期景气与全球化共振，"设 备+后市场+资源品"布局打开成长空间 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 矿山机械设备空间广阔、利润可观，是装备制造中的优质赛道。从需求侧来看，资源品价格、 矿石品位、资本密集度影响行业需求总量，在宏观宽松、供给受限及需求扩张背景下，资源品 价格有望维持强势，当前矿山机械行业景气有望加速上行，叠加新能源、无人化渗透率提升有 望贡献增量。从供给侧来看，外资龙头格局集中，出海有望成为我国矿机企业成长机遇。近年 来我国矿山机械出海蓬勃发展，龙头企业全球竞争力日益提升，"设备+后市场+资源品"业务 并进，看好我国矿机企业的成长性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 臧雄 曹小敏 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SAC：S0490521050001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 王硕 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金利率波动，存单净融资延续为负——流动 性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 19 日-1 月 23 日，央行短期逆回购净投放 2295 亿元，国库现金定存到期 1500 亿 元，1 月 MLF 净投放 7000 亿元。2026 年 1 月 19 日-25 日，政府债净缴款规模增加，同业存 单到期收益率下行，银行间债券市场杠杆率均值小幅下降。2026 年 1 月 26 日-2 月 1 日，政府 债预计净缴款 5150 亿元，同业存单到期规模约为 4284 亿元。2026 年 1 月 23 日，测算中长 期、短期利率风格纯债基久期中位数周度环比分别下降 0.62 年、下降 0.26 年。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 资金利率波动，2] 存单净融资延续 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 本轮转债行情是由 ETF 资金推动吗？ ——可转债周报 20260124 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 开年以来转债 ETF 规模回升，但其与指数相关性趋弱，市场波动主要受权益端主导；成交量能 出现背离，或反映投资者对估值态度边际趋紧。当周 A 股震荡分化，中小盘风格占优，建材、 化工等周期制造板块领涨，成交集中于电子和电力设备板块。转债市场整体走强，中小盘指数 优于大盘，隐含波动率与市价中位数突破历史高位，情绪偏暖，部分高价高转股溢价率标的涨 幅居前。一级市场发行较平稳，储备充裕；条款博弈仍是焦点，下修意愿仍较弱而强赎博弈加 剧，市场对强赎计数品种关注度提升。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 本轮转债行情是由 2] ETF 资金推动吗？ ——可转债周报 20 ...

1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 利率上行，地方付息压力怎么看？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来利率上行抬高了地方政府新增债券的发行成本，叠加土地收入下滑，导致其专项债 付息压力持续攀升，2025 年全国层面付息压力预计达 8.42%，正逼近 10%的政策警戒线。压力 呈现显著结构性分化，部分省份和多数地市已提前触及或超过风险阈值，债务风险呈现由基层 向省级上移趋势。尽管付息支出增长正在挤压其他财政支出空间，但由于存量债务基数庞大， 当前利率上升的边际冲击总体仍属可控，需市场利率在现有基础上再大幅上行超过 80 个基点， 才有可能会触及全国性警戒线或耗尽财政腾挪空间，因此预计地方付息压力短期内难以触发货 币政策宽松，降息或调整债券期限结构更多属于中长期应对逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FOMC 会议对经济和就业的乐观态度、以及对关税通胀影响在今年年中消退的判断，意味着下 次降息时点或在 6 月会议上。较于降息，更应该关注美联储独立性的走向。特朗普意图通过鲍 威尔事件震慑新任主席，新任主席做"影子主席"的概率在增加，这意味着后续降息概率也在 提升。今年再度大幅降息或能推动美国经济超预期增长，但也为再通胀埋下隐患。于资产而言： 1）美联储独立性受损概率提升，进一步削弱美国资产吸引力，加大美元指数下行压力，黄金配 置价值再度凸显；2）降息预期增加，铜、铝等大宗商品以及新兴市场股市将进一步受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降息和美联储独立性，哪个更重要？ 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [13]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the in vitro diagnostics field for thirty years, establishing a comprehensive product matrix of instruments and reagents with excellent performance. It has expanded horizontally into molecular diagnostics and biochemical diagnostics, solidifying its competitive advantage as a leader in chemiluminescence [3]. - As a pioneer in the overseas expansion of chemiluminescence, the company has seen rapid growth in overseas installations and revenue, exporting to 167 countries and establishing 14 overseas subsidiaries to enhance local operational capabilities. The report anticipates a performance acceleration phase in the next 3-5 years due to increasing domestic localization rates and faster entry into core hospitals and markets abroad [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemiluminescence: Domestic and Overseas Growth - The global immunodiagnostics market is expected to grow from $18.9 billion in 2019 to $27.7 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. The Chinese market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.4% during the same period [8][33]. - In China, the market is expected to recover in 2026 after experiencing a decline in 2025 due to price reductions from centralized procurement and adjustments in value-added tax [8][41]. - The localization rate for chemiluminescence products has room for improvement, with over 70% already under centralized procurement. The localization rates for various categories are 66% for sex hormones, 59% for thyroid function, 53% for tumor markers, and 52% for glucose metabolism [8][47]. Product Performance and Market Share - The company maintains industry-leading product capabilities, with a coverage rate in top-tier hospitals increasing to 61%. It has developed a full range of products, including 12 models of instruments sold globally by mid-2025 [10]. - The innovative detection method has optimized reagent performance, achieving significant improvements in sensitivity and accuracy. The company’s market share in tumor markers and thyroid function projects is expected to grow significantly [10][84]. Overseas Market Localization and Growth - The company has established 14 overseas branches, focusing on localized operations. For example, in India, the company has built a robust agent network, with revenue expected to exceed 200 million yuan by 2024 [11]. - The overseas reagent segment is anticipated to be a significant growth driver, with overseas reagent revenue projected to reach 57% by 2024, compared to 80% in the domestic market [11]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.65 billion yuan, 2.0 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26X, 21X, and 18X [11].