Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The adjustment of the import tariff for ethane will significantly reduce the company's raw material costs, with the most-favored-nation tariff set at 2% and a temporary tariff of 1% for 2025 [2][4]. - The reduction in ethane costs is expected to improve the profitability of the company's ethane cracking project, with a projected net profit impact of approximately 100 million yuan due to a decrease of about 29.2 yuan per ton in ethane costs [9]. - The company is advancing its strategy to strengthen, supplement, and extend the C3 industrial chain, with the successful commencement of the α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end new materials industrial park project, which has a total planned investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan [9]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.47 billion yuan, 7.14 billion yuan, and 11.07 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.6X, 8.9X, and 5.7X [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustment - The State Council Tariff Commission announced a reduction in the import tariff for ethane, with the most-favored-nation tariff at 2% and a temporary tariff of 1% for 2025, aimed at promoting green and low-carbon development [2][4]. Cost Optimization - The company's ethane import cost optimization is expected to enhance the profitability of its ethane cracking project, with a significant decrease in costs translating to a net profit increase of around 100 million yuan [9]. Project Development - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end new materials industrial park project has commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, which is part of the company's strategy to enhance its C3 industrial chain [9]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates net profits of 5.47 billion yuan, 7.14 billion yuan, and 11.07 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9].

硫化物进展加速，设备材料先行 ——固态电池深度报告Ⅱ 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源&机械研究小组 2025-01-06 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490517110001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 SFC执业证书编号：BRP550 分析师 倪蕤 分析师 屈奇 联系人 喻亨一 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520030003 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070003 分析师 邬博华 分析师 赵智勇 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 硫化物路线进展加速，硫化 锂材料是关键 %% research.95579.com 3 01 固态电解质：目前技术路线未定，各有优劣 | 固体电解质 | 氧化物 | 聚合物 | 硫化物 | 卤化物 | | --- | ...

激浊扬清，周观军工 第100期： 重视军工新材料的配置价值 长江证券研究所军工研究小组 2025-01-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 | 王贺嘉 | 分析师 | 王清 | 分析师 张晨晨 | 联系人 | 杨继虎 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 | | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524080007 | | | | SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 | | | | | | | | 联系人 | 张飞 | 联系人 | 李麟君 | | | | %% %% %% %% research.95579.com %% research.95579.com 3 01 2 目 录 01 02 03 超配含"弹"量，网络信息体系建设 隐身材料：四代及以上先进战机标准配置， 新机列装叠加耗材属性创造广阔市场空间 航空复材：新型军机牵引新一轮 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 海外观察系列 78 丨 Nike FY2025Q2 经营跟踪： 营收超预期，战略变革下预计业绩短期承压 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩情况：FY2025Q2（9/1-11/30）Nike 实现超预期营收 123.5 亿美元（彭博一致预期 121.3 亿），同比-8%（固定汇率同比-9%），收入延续下滑主因客流疲软以及加深收缩经典鞋款经销商 售权的战略。毛利率同比-1pct 至 43.6%，主因清库存下较高的折扣与渠道组合变化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 柯睿 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 海外观察系列2] 78 丨 Nike FY2025Q2 经营跟踪： 营收超预期，战略变革下预计业绩短期承压 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 业绩情况： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [3]. Core Views - The company has launched a 2024 restricted stock incentive plan, which is expected to strengthen mid-term growth expectations and enhance valuation [5][7]. - The incentive plan includes performance assessments at three levels: company-wide, business unit, and individual performance, with specific targets for net profit growth and return on equity [5][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated to be 45.60 billion, 54.72 billion, and 65.67 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 20% for 2026 and 2027 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Incentive Plan - The company plans to grant a total of 12.90 million shares, accounting for 0.764% of the total share capital, with an initial grant of 11.17 million shares at a price of 18.20 yuan per share, to be unlocked over three years [3][5]. Market Demand and Performance - The demand for gypsum board is expected to remain stable, with a correlation to the non-manufacturing PMI index, indicating a recovery in the service sector and construction industry [6]. - The company maintains a strong market position, with a balanced strategy for both low-end and high-end products, ensuring stable profitability [6][7]. External Growth - The company is actively pursuing external growth through acquisitions and integration, with successful outcomes in its waterproofing and coating businesses [7]. - The financial foundation and backing from the group are expected to support continued external acquisitions [7]. Financial Projections - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 27.39 billion, 31.39 billion, and 37.36 billion respectively, with net profits expected to reach 3.88 billion, 4.61 billion, and 5.49 billion [23]. - The estimated PE ratios for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 11.1 and 9.3 times, indicating a valuation bottom [7].

行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 票价同比降幅显著收窄，首批成品油出口配额下 发——交运周专题 2024W52 %% %% | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 报告要点 | | | | [Table_Summary] 出行链：国际客运量全面恢复，票价同比降幅显著收窄 | | | | 海运： 2025 年首批成品油出口配额下发 | | | | 物流：空运淡季逐步到来，蒙煤量价持续走弱 | | | [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：国际客运量全面恢复，票价同比降幅显著收窄 海运：2025 年首批成品油出口配额下发 物流：空运淡季逐步到来，蒙煤量价持续走弱 风险提示 2、油价及人工成本大幅上升； 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 运输 cjzqdt11111 行业研究丨行业周报 市场表现对比图(近 1 ...

资料来源：Wind，长江证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，长江证券研究所（注：生命科学检测包括环境检测、食品检测、 化学分析检测；2024 年上半年公司对三个业务做了合并，改称"生命科学"。） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | | 2020A | 2021A | 2022A | 2023A | 2021H1 | 2022H1 | 2023H1 | 2024H1 | | 营业收入 | 22965 | 24008 | 19811 | 17701 | 9156 | 7863 | 4882 | 4721 | | 净利润 | 3473 | 3391 | 1230 | 510 | 513 | -185 | -2725 | -2517 | | 经营活动现金流量 | 1163 | -1820 | 1846 | -1829 | -31 ...

行业研究丨行业周报丨软件与服务 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title 从 DeepSeek- 2] V3 看 AI 算力需求变迁 2024 年第 52 计算机行业周报 1. 近期，国家发改委最近组织架构显示，低空司作为内设机构已纳入国家发展改革委的机关 司局设置中。 %% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 大盘上周震荡上行，上证综指周五收复 3400 点整数关口，报收 3400.14 点，整体上涨 0.95%。 计算机板块大幅回撤后震荡调整，大幅下跌 4.66%。在长江一级行业中排名第 30 位，两市成 交额占比为 11.12%，算力相关标的表现活跃。 重点推荐：国产算力 近日，国产大模型厂商 DeepSeek 宣布 DeepSeek-V3 首个版本上线并同步开源。此次 DeepSeek-V3 仅用 277.8 万个 H800 GPU 小时便完成了训练，并在性能上达到了世界领先的 水平，说明了目前在数据和算法方面仍有大量优化空间，后续有望在有限的预算下开发强劲性 能的大模型，从而降低大模型的准入门槛，推动 AI 应用的落地进程 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [4]. Core Insights - The coal price at the port level has drawn significant attention as it fell below 770 RMB/ton, which is closely related to the long-term pricing mechanism of coal contracts. This drop raises concerns about potential price adjustments for companies relying on pit contracts, impacting their earnings stability. However, the report suggests that the overall impact on companies with stable high dividends is manageable [3][14]. Summary by Sections Recent Tracking - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.55%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.91 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 32 industries. As of December 27, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 758 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week, but prices began to stabilize towards the end of the week. The report anticipates a potential rebound in coal prices due to reduced production intensity and strong demand for inventory replenishment before the holiday [3][44]. Pricing Mechanism Analysis - The report discusses the significance of the 770 RMB/ton threshold in relation to the long-term pricing mechanism for coal contracts. When the port coal price drops below this level, it indicates a risk of price adjustments for companies primarily using pit contracts, which could affect their earnings stability. The report projects that the coal price center may remain at or above 770 RMB/ton in 2025, suggesting that short-term price drops do not significantly impact the dividend stock allocation value [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a marginal allocation strategy for stock selection, focusing on: 1. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy (A+H) 2. Transitioning targets: Electric Power Investment Energy, Xinji Energy, and Huaihe Energy 3. High-risk, high-reward coking coal targets: Huaibei Mining [3].

丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 27 日，上海市人民政府办公厅发布《关于人工智能"模塑申城"的实施方案》。此次上海 就人工智能发展提出了《关于人工智能"模塑申城"的实施方案》，其中明确了 2025 年底力争 全市智能算力规模突破 100EFLOPS。在这一政策推动下，国产算力产业将迎来确定性机遇。 建议关注国产算力产业链，重点推荐国内 AI 芯片领军企业寒武纪。 [Table_Author] 宗建树 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title 算力产业跟踪：推进人工智能"模塑申城"，上 2] 海智算规模有望突破 100EFLOPS 事件评论 集群效应下，上海有望带动周边地区算力产业共同发展。目前，我国智算基础设施布局不 均，北京、上海、广东为代表的京津冀、长三角等地区在基础设施建设上具有城市集群效 应，发展较为领先。2024 年以来，长三角三省一市围绕算力建设相继出台产业规划，随 着《方案》的实施，上海有望吸引全球范围内的创新资源和优秀企业，形成算力产业的集 聚效应，从而带动整个长三角地区的算力产业加速发展。 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 2024-12 ...