行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 为何钢铁的需求侧具有韧性？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾 2025 年钢铁需求侧表现， 1~10 月粗钢、钢材产量同比分别-3.9%、+4.7%。钢材产量由 于涉及冷轧、钢管等二次材重复计算的问题，伴随钢铁产品结构升级和二次材占比的提升，或 对实际产量有所高估。粗钢产量由于系钢企自行上报，缺乏严格监督机制，不涉及流转税数据 的检验，导致实际的产量或有所低估。由此，实际钢铁产量或介于统计局粗钢产量和钢材产量 之间。结合钢材库存整体去化至低位，当前库存水平和年初库存水平差异也不大，表明 2025 年 钢铁总需求相对 2024 年是较为平稳的。为何钢铁的需求侧具有韧性？ 丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 快递降速龙头回归，文旅民航融合发展 ——交运周专题 2025W49 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周，快递、航空、海运板块均迎来积极变化：1）快递受益"反内卷"，快递单价如期修复。 在价格之外，电商降速提质高质量发展，龙头快递份额加速提升，格局重回分化，看好龙头公 司中通快递、圆通速递。2）文化和旅游部、中国民航局发布关于印发《文化和旅游与民航业融 合发展行动方案》的通知，重点提出优化银发旅游适老化无障碍出行环境，提升国内旅游出行 通达性，加密入境旅游航线等方针，有望持续提振航空出行需求。3）海运方面，赫伯罗特拟收 购以星。从时机上看，集运景气承压，以星市值大幅回落，行业收并购窗口或打开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Haidilao is a large restaurant enterprise with a rich brand matrix, distinctive management features, and strong supply chain barriers. The company is expected to continue leading the restaurant market due to its exceptional service, high operational efficiency, and mature supply chain system [3][9]. Company Overview - Haidilao, centered around Sichuan hot pot, has evolved into a global leader in Chinese dining over thirty years. The company's development can be categorized into three phases: expansion, deep adjustment, and new brand exploration. It has established a dual-driven growth model combining its main brand and new brands [6][20]. - The company emphasizes extreme service, which has become a hallmark of its brand, and has a stable shareholding structure with concentrated ownership by the founding team, ensuring effective strategic execution [6][35]. Industry Analysis - The hot pot industry is the largest segment of Chinese cuisine, projected to exceed 600 billion yuan in market size by 2024, capturing approximately 14.5% of the overall Chinese dining market. The industry is characterized by a high degree of standardization and operational efficiency, making it easier to manage supply chains and replicate stores quickly [7][63]. - Despite being a leading brand, Haidilao holds only a 6.9% market share, indicating significant competition from numerous small and specialized hot pot restaurants [7][82]. Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's core competitive advantages include exceptional service, strong management capabilities, and a robust supply chain, which together create a formidable brand moat. The company has implemented a unique apprenticeship system to ensure service quality and operational efficiency [8][43]. - The company is also focusing on a dual-brand strategy, leveraging its main brand while rapidly developing new brands to capture additional market share [9][61]. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts that Haidilao will achieve net profits of 4.335 billion, 4.782 billion, and 5.278 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [9]. - In 2023, the company experienced a significant recovery, with revenue increasing by 19.3% and net profit surging by 227.3%, primarily due to increased customer traffic and optimization of underperforming stores [51].

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨特海国际（09658.HK） [Table_Title] 2025 年三季度业绩点评：同店销售额同比增长， 门店环比持平 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第三季度，公司实现营业收入 2.14 亿美元，同比增长 7.8%，期内溢利 359.3 万美元， 同比下滑 90.5%，主要系汇率波动影响。在餐饮出海浪潮下，特海国际以其独特的服务形式、 优越的品牌力、快速本土化的适应能力成为中餐出海品牌中的弄潮儿。在规模庞大且竞争格局 分散的国际餐饮市场中，特海国际具备广阔的发展空间。公司单店模型不断优化，新店快速实 现盈亏平衡，我们看好火锅行业在国际市场的发展空间以及公司未来的发展前景，预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 4681、5908、7192 万美元，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The launch of the Leopaard Lafa5 on November 27, 2025, is priced between 97,800 to 121,800 CNY, targeting a niche market for 100,000-level electric sedans, with strong potential for becoming a bestseller. The company is expected to see continuous sales growth driven by the domestic new car cycle and overseas expansion through collaboration with Stellantis, opening up global sales opportunities [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Leopaard Lafa5 was officially launched on November 27, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The Lafa5 is positioned as a 100,000-level electric sedan, emphasizing extreme price-performance ratio, with significant promotional offers at launch. The pricing for the Lafa5 has decreased by 13,000 to 15,000 CNY compared to pre-sale versions, with a starting price of 92,800 CNY for a limited time. The vehicle features a spacious design, strong product capabilities, and competitive advantages in price, space, and configuration compared to rivals. The Lafa5 is built on the Leap3.5 architecture and offers impressive range and energy consumption metrics, with a CLTC range of 515 km and 605 km, and a minimum energy consumption of 12.3 kWh/100 km [7]. Company Outlook - The company is in a strong new car cycle, with plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years. The domestic market strategy includes a "1+N" channel development model, with 866 sales outlets as of September 30, 2025. The company has also established over 700 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets, including Europe and Asia-Pacific. The investment in intelligent driving technology has increased significantly, with a nearly 100% rise in team size and computational resources in the first half of 2025 [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 630 million, 5 billion, and 8.37 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 107.9X, 13.7X, and 8.2X [7].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 谁来接长债？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期债市中短端抗跌，但超长端利差再次走阔。当前债市的困局在于财政的拉久期节奏，和央 行买长债的节奏并不一致，当前债市缺少长债的买入力量。后续债市如何恢复超长端的供求平 衡？我们认为主要有以下三种路径，并对每种路径进行了验证及测算：1）央行开始明显买入长 久期国债；2）长债利率继续调整后，财政系统在面临长端融资成本攀升的时候，会理性选择缩 短发行久期；3）大行进一步得到注资，或缓解利率敏感性监管指标压力，让大行有空间继续买 入长久期债券。在这一矛盾缓解之前，我们预计中短端相对抗跌，而超长端可能继续震荡偏弱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 谁来接长债？ [Table_Summary2] 近期债市中短端抗跌，而超长端利差再走阔 近期债市中短端抗跌，但超长端利差再次走阔，主因超长端 ...

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看待降息周期美国家电市场表现？ [Table_Summary2] 引言 [Table_Summary] 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%- 4.25%，此为时隔九个月的再度降息。复盘历轮降息周期对美国本土家电产业的影响，其对供 给侧的拉动较为显著，且传导效率相对更高；相比之下，降息后需求侧虽然最终也会呈现改善 趋势，但存在较长的时滞性。因此，本次降息对国内家电企业收入端的贡献在中短期内或不会 显现，且后续仍需观察美国经济基本面的变化趋势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何看待降息周期美国家电市场表现？ 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%- 4.25%，此为时隔九个月的再度 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [8] Core Insights - The rapid development of the AI industry in the U.S. has led to electricity shortages, which are expected to drive an increase in coal consumption. By 2025, domestic coal demand in the U.S. could rise to between 547 million and 640 million tons, representing an annual growth of 27% to 48% compared to 2025 levels. This shift may significantly reduce U.S. coal exports and disrupt the global coal trade balance, providing marginal support for coal prices globally and in China [2][6][21] Summary by Sections Coal Consumption and Production - In the first nine months of 2025, U.S. coal consumption reached 197.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Coal production during the same period was 236.29 million tons, up 5.0% year-on-year. Coal imports surged by 53.1% to 1.2 million tons, while exports fell by 11.4% to 42.45 million tons [6][16][26] Market Performance - The coal index in the Yangtze River region increased by 1.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.03 percentage points. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 785 RMB per ton, down 31 RMB from the previous week. The price of coking coal at Jingtang port was 1,630 RMB per ton, also down 40 RMB [5][28][51] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal market may remain robust due to strict safety regulations and low inventory levels at mines and ports. If cold weather increases daily consumption, coal prices could rise further. The report emphasizes the need to monitor extreme weather, procurement rhythms, and port inventory changes [5][29][45]

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受益于居民户均收入突破临界拐点，过去几年东南亚、拉美及中东非等新兴市场家电渗透率迎 来加速提升，行业长期保持高景气，同时国内企业凭借深入的本地化布局与产品及性价比等方 面优势正逐步抢占日韩系与欧美系企业份额。展望后续，国内市场面临潜在的基数与需求前置 压力，增长中枢或边际放缓，海外成熟地区家电也已基本进入存量阶段，而新兴市场当前渗透 率仍处于相对低位，且国内品牌保有较大份额提升潜力，有望为国内家电企业规模增长贡献长 期势能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ [Table_Summary2] 新兴市场家电景气度如何？ 国内出口表现与上市公司财报的交 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 存量市场承压，对房企定价构成挑战，但不是影响阿尔法的最重要因素；老货减值压力也有望 边际缓和。房企阿尔法的真正制约在于景气缩圈，可投城市和优质地块的供应相对不足，尽管 参投房企数量较前几年减少，但竞争烈度依然不低，一是房企补充有效货值的难度加大，二是 溢价率偏高。打破景气进一步缩圈，唯有政策加码，尽管总量效应可能有限，但政策对好房子 和结构性市场的支撑效果相对可期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有明显提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策宽 ...