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锂电新周期的供需研判
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-06 08:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the lithium battery sector [4] Core Insights - The demand for lithium batteries is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple application scenarios [11] - Supply and demand dynamics are showing initial signs of a turning point, with expectations of price increases [9] Demand Analysis - The report highlights that the demand for energy storage is supported by the formation of domestic business models and the global shift towards cost parity in solar storage [13] - In China, the expected bidding volume for energy storage in the second half of 2025 is projected to exceed 190 GWh, with potential annual installations reaching 183 GWh to over 200 GWh depending on the execution rate [17] - Globally, the report estimates that by 2030, the newly installed capacity for energy storage could reach 1,327 GWh, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 30% [17] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that the supply side is beginning to show signs of a turning point, with price expectations strengthening [9] - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms across various provinces in China is expected to enhance the revenue assurance for energy storage projects [14] Market Trends - The report notes that the electric heavy truck market in China has seen explosive growth, with sales reaching 96,000 units in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179% [30] - In Europe, the electric vehicle market is experiencing a surge, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 20% needed to meet new carbon emission standards [40] Future Projections - The report anticipates that by 2030, China's total installed capacity for renewable energy, including solar and wind, will reach 1,291 GW, with energy storage capacity expected to be 1,327 GWh [19] - The demand for energy storage in the U.S. is projected to grow significantly, with an expected total demand of 1,199 GWh from 2025 to 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 56% [28]
可转债周报:2025Q3“固收+”基金和其转债持仓如何变动?-20251106
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-06 08:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market recovered as the stock index rose during the week, with continuous structural rotation. The trading enthusiasm in the growth direction remained high, and the power equipment and electronics sectors were actively traded. The valuation of medium - and high - priced individual bonds was significantly compressed, some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity, and the implied volatility fluctuated at a high level [2][7]. - In Q3, the overall scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased, but the convertible bond allocation ratio decreased, which may reflect investors' periodic considerations of the cost - effectiveness and valuation of convertible bonds [2][7]. - The supply in the primary market advanced steadily, and frequent clause events were still important factors disturbing the short - term trading rhythm. Allocation should take into account both the logic of the underlying stocks and the cost - effectiveness of valuation [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025Q3 "Fixed - income +" Funds and Their Convertible Bond Holdings Changes - Mixed - bond secondary funds became an important increment of "fixed - income +" funds. In the first three quarters of 2025, the share of "fixed - income +" funds achieved year - on - year positive growth, with a 32% increase in Q3. In Q3 2025, the total scale of mixed - bond secondary funds accounted for 51.7% of "fixed - income +" funds, a year - on - year increase of 14.5 pct [18]. - The issuance of "fixed - income +" funds recovered this year, but the share decreased slightly. The number of newly issued "fixed - income +" funds in the first 10 months increased by 9.8% year - on - year, while the total share decreased by 10.5% year - on - year [18]. - The overall convertible bond holdings of "fixed - income +" funds declined slightly, with the most significant decline in mixed - bond secondary funds. This may be affected by the strong performance of the equity market and the relatively high valuation and shrinking scale of the convertible bond market. In Q3 2025, the median ratio of convertible bond holdings to net assets of mixed - bond secondary funds decreased the most [21][26]. Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week (October 26 - November 1, 2025), the energy storage theme in the equity market was strong, while the real estate and finance sectors were weak. The lithium - battery electrolyte index, lithium hexafluorophosphate index, and power battery index led the gains [28]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Stock Indexes Strengthened with Reduced Volume, and Technology Growth Sectors Attracted More Attention - The main A - share stock indexes strengthened slightly during the week. The Shenzhen Component Index performed well among the three major indexes, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index underperformed [30]. - The net outflow of main funds expanded, and the trading volume recovered moderately, reflecting a periodic repair of risk appetite. The cycle and technology growth sectors were dominant, with active trading in the power equipment and electronics sectors, especially the energy storage theme. The real estate and communication sectors were under pressure, and the crowding degree among sectors was differentiated [10]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Following the Equity Market, and Small - cap Convertible Bonds Were More Elastic - The convertible bond market strengthened following the equity market. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, and large - cap convertible bonds outperformed small - and medium - cap ones [42]. - The valuation structure of convertible bonds was slightly differentiated, with a larger compression of medium - and high - priced varieties. The implied volatility remained high but declined, and the median market price continued to oscillate upward, indicating a marginal repair of market confidence [10]. - At the industry level, the cycle and technology growth directions were relatively active, with trading concentrated in the power equipment and electronics sectors. Individual bonds generally strengthened, and some negative - premium bonds showed prominent elasticity [10]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation during the Week - Two new convertible bonds were listed, and 26 companies updated their issuance plans. The total scale of existing projects at the exchange acceptance stage and later was 68.99 billion yuan [10][64][65]. Summary of Downgrade - related Announcements during the Week - Ten convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 3.3; 11 convertible bonds announced not to downgrade, with a market - value - weighted average PB of 2.6; and two convertible bonds proposed a downgrade [73]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements during the Week - One convertible bond announced that it was expected to trigger redemption; 11 convertible bonds announced not to redeem in advance; and one convertible bond announced an early redemption [77].
点亮科技树,新兴未来产业图谱系列(1):驶向深蓝,深海科技浪潮将至
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-06 08:44
%% %% 投资策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 驶向深蓝,深海科技浪潮将至——点亮科技树, 新兴未来产业图谱系列(1) %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在政策规划与产业趋势共振下,深海科技有望迎来重要机遇。政策层面,2025 年《政府工作报 告》首次将深海科技产业纳入,与商业航天、低空经济并列,提出推动新兴产业安全健康发展。 产业层面,2024 年我国海洋生产总值突破 10 万亿元;国产化技术持续突破,推动深海科技产 业有望逐步迈向规模化落地。基于此,我们建议关注三大核心投资主线:1)深海装备;2)海 洋数字化;3)深远海风电。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC:S0490524010002 SFC:BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 驶向深蓝,深海科技浪潮将至——点亮科技树, 2] 新兴未来产业图谱系列(1) [Table_Summary2] 核心背景:政策不断推出,深海科技有 ...
兖矿能源(600188):Q3业绩符合预期,重视公司弹性+稀缺量增成长属性
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-06 04:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.12 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2% (after restatement). In Q3 2025, the net profit was 2.29 billion yuan, down 36.6% year-on-year but up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter. The injection of Northwest Mining in this quarter is noteworthy [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the company's high elasticity in pricing due to a high proportion of spot sales, with only 30% of coal sales being long-term contracts. This positions the company to benefit significantly during periods of rising coal prices [2][14]. - The company aims to increase its raw coal production to 300 million tons over the next 5-10 years, representing a growth of over 70% compared to the expected production of 170 million tons in 2024, highlighting its unique growth potential in the industry [2][14]. - The company's shares are trading at a significant discount in the Hong Kong market, and its high dividend yield presents an attractive investment opportunity [2][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved coal production and sales of 136 million tons and 126 million tons, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and 3%. In Q3 2025, production and sales were 46.03 million tons and 46.12 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 5% and 11% [7]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 503 yuan per ton, down 22% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the price was 522 yuan per ton, also down 20% year-on-year but up 2% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The cost of self-produced coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 342 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the cost was 350 yuan per ton, down 4% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The gross profit per ton of self-produced coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 162 yuan, down 42% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit was 173 yuan per ton, down 40% year-on-year but up 20% quarter-on-quarter [8]. Market Position and Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices and potential price increases due to its low long-term contract ratio [2][14]. - The company’s growth strategy, including both internal growth and external acquisitions, is seen as a rare opportunity in the industry, making it a focal point for investors [2][14]. - Earnings forecasts for the company are projected at 10 billion, 13.5 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.59, 11.55, and 11.41 times [14].
计算机行业2025Q3基金持仓分析:重仓超配比例仍回落,聚焦国产AI链主线
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 10:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the software and services industry is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Insights - The total market value of heavy holdings in the computer sector for Q3 2025 is approximately 37.36 billion, an increase of about 5.52 billion from the previous quarter. The computer sector's holding ratio is 2.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][5]. - There is a significant concentration of funds in the IT infrastructure sector, driven by the narrative surrounding AI, with notable improvements in performance observed in certain segments. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the domestic computing power chain and major internet companies [2][8]. Summary by Sections Heavy Holdings and Allocation - The heavy allocation ratio for the computer sector continues to decline, with Q3 2025 showing a heavy holding market value of approximately 37.36 billion, up from 31.84 billion in Q2 2025. The heavy allocation ratio has decreased to 2.3%, ranking low compared to other sectors [5][18]. - The concentration of holdings has significantly increased, reaching a new high since 2021, with the CR10 and CR5 ratios rising to 79.9% and 59.3%, respectively [7][38]. Sector Performance - The IT infrastructure sector has seen a substantial increase in market value, primarily influenced by AI narratives, with a notable increase of 1.1% in its holding ratio. The top three companies in this sector have seen significant increases in their market values: Haiguang Information (+5.39 billion), Zhongke Shuguang (+3.53 billion), and Inspur Information (+2.69 billion) [6][32]. - The overall performance of the computer sector has been mixed, with IT infrastructure leading while other segments have shown average performance [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the domestic AI chain, with the internet sector being a central player and domestic computing power as a flexible direction. The current valuation of the computer sector is at a high level, with a PE-TTM of 69.5, placing it in the 94th percentile since 2016 [8][46]. - The report suggests monitoring leading companies in the domestic computing power chain and major internet companies for potential investment opportunities [8][26].
博实结(301608):智能睡眠产品快速放量,5G+北斗政策落地
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 09:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 1.272 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 467 million yuan, a 24.31% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 73 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 64.42% [2][6][10]. - The acceleration in Q3 was primarily driven by the demand expansion from the implementation of the 5G + Beidou policy in domestic commercial vehicles and the market development of smart sleep terminals. The gross margin for Q3 was 25.29%, an increase of 3.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.57%, up 3.80 percentage points year-on-year [2][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.272 billion yuan, a 21.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 467 million yuan, a 24.31% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 73 million yuan, a 64.42% increase year-on-year [2][6][10]. Business Development - The company continues to launch new products based on core technologies such as communication and positioning, extending into various IoT application scenarios. The coherent technology iteration allows for efficient product development without excessive foundational research [8]. - The company has established a full-stack IoT solution system comprising "modules + platforms + terminals," which enhances its hardware and software capabilities. This positions the company to benefit from the growth of AI terminals while maintaining product competitiveness and constructing profitability advantages through refined cost control [8]. Future Projections - With the smart sleep terminal and overseas business entering a rapid growth phase, the company is expected to accelerate its new growth trajectory. The overseas business, which has a higher gross margin compared to domestic operations, is anticipated to improve the overall gross margin of the company [8]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 230 million yuan, 304 million yuan, and 402 million yuan, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 32%, and 32%, with price-to-earnings ratios of 34x, 26x, and 20x respectively [8].
中际旭创(300308):营收环比加速增长,毛利率持续提升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 09:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - The company reported accelerated revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.14 billion yuan, up 125.0% year-on-year and 30.0% quarter-on-quarter [4][10]. - High-margin products are increasing in proportion, and the company is benefiting from improved manufacturing yields and cost reduction measures, leading to a record high gross margin of 42.8% in Q3 2025 [10]. - The company is actively expanding production capacity and securing core resources to ensure the delivery of large-scale orders in the future, with inventory reaching 11.22 billion yuan, a 52.6% increase from the beginning of the year [10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, and a net profit of 7.13 billion yuan, up 90.1% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue alone was 10.22 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan [4][10]. Product Performance - The company has seen continuous growth in the shipment of 800G products since Q1 2025, and 1.6T products are expected to begin large-scale shipments next year due to increasing orders from key customers [10]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced costs, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreasing to 0.6%, 2.1%, and 0.8% respectively, compared to the previous year [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 10.4 billion yuan, 17.02 billion yuan, and 21.81 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 101%, 64%, and 28% [10].
十一月行情展望
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 09:45
十一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-11-05 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号:S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号:BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 大市研判 上证指数自2025年8月26日之后进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段 10月底的向上突破4000依然属于中枢震荡的一部分,因其后依然会跌回原中枢中 图:上证指数日线走势(2024年9月至2025年10月末) 资料来源:通达信,长江证券研究所 %% research.95579.com 3 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 目前尚未构成向下的一笔 图:创业板指周线走势(2012年至2025年10月末) 资料来源:交易开拓者,长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 大市研判 创业板指自国庆后如期进入周线级别中枢震荡阶段 同期进入日线级别中枢震荡阶段,当前看有小M头趋势 图:创业板指日线走势( ...
荣泰健康(603579):营收降幅收窄,费用投放阶段性加大
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 04:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.148 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 1.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 66 million yuan, down 48.28% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 338 million yuan, a decline of 0.43% year-on-year, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, down 18.25% year-on-year, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 10 million yuan, down 62.32% year-on-year [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.148 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 66 million yuan, down 48.28% year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 338 million yuan, a decline of 0.43% year-on-year, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, down 18.25% year-on-year, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 10 million yuan, down 62.32% year-on-year [2][5] Market Trends - The revenue decline in Q3 showed a narrowing trend compared to previous quarters, with expectations of growth in domestic and South Korean markets, while the US and Russian markets experienced significant declines. The company has entered a strategic partnership with Meituan for a therapy robot project, aiming to leverage both parties' strengths in health technology and local services [10] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 31.11%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year. However, various expense ratios increased significantly, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios reaching 14.58%, 6.21%, 7.73%, and 1.34%, respectively, all showing year-on-year increases. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 7.54%, down 1.64 percentage points year-on-year [10]
安克创新(300866):关税扰动下营收韧性高增,经营性利润较优增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-05 04:42
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨安克创新(300866.SZ) [Table_Title] 关税扰动下营收韧性高增,经营性利润较优增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025年三季报:2025年前三季度,公司实现营业收入 210.19 亿元,同比增长 27.79%, 实现归母净利润 19.33 亿元,同比增长 31.34%,实现扣非归母净利润 14.83 亿元,同比增长 13.82%。单三季度来看,公司实现营业收入 81.52 亿元,同比增长 19.88%,实现归母净利润 7.66 亿元,同比增长 27.76%,实现扣非归母净利润 5.21 亿元,同比下滑 2.92%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 李锦 杨洋 SAC:S0490517070017 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517070012 SFC:BUW408 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 安克创新(3008 ...