Fiscal Structure - China's fiscal system consists of four budgets: General Public Budget, Government Fund Budget, State Capital Operations Budget, and Social Insurance Fund Budget, each serving distinct functions and interlinked[7] - The General Public Budget primarily relies on tax revenues, while the Government Fund Budget is mainly supported by land sales[8] Revenue and Expenditure - In 2024, the General Public Budget's revenue and expenditure will account for 54% and 60% respectively, while the Government Fund Budget will account for 15% and 21%[20] - Major sources of revenue include four key taxes and land finance, which together represent approximately 50% of total revenue, with insurance and interest income making up about 25%[8] - Expenditure in 2024 will see traditional infrastructure and real estate spending at about 25%, while social security and livelihood spending will account for approximately 30%[8] Fiscal Deficit and Reform - China is expected to maintain a "big fiscal" approach, with a projected general deficit rate of around 10% in 2025, which is considered high compared to historical and global standards[9] - Continuous fiscal reform is necessary, focusing on establishing a tax system that aligns with high-quality development and new business models[9] Local Government Finance - Local governments play a crucial role in China's fiscal system, with a significant portion of their expenditures being financed through deficits, nearing 50% of total expenditures[10] - By 2025, some local fiscal indicators are expected to improve marginally, although the overall tight fiscal situation remains a challenge[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the software and services industry [8]. Core Insights - Recent explosive growth in AI model invocation in China, with OpenRouter platform's invocation surpassing that of the US for the first time [2][5]. - The rapid increase in invocation volume indicates a strong collective rise of Chinese AI manufacturers, not reliant on a single blockbuster product [10]. - The report anticipates accelerated commercialization and international expansion of domestic AI models, driven by significant price competitiveness [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's AI model invocation reached 41.2 trillion tokens, exceeding the US's 29.4 trillion tokens for the week of February 9-15, 2026 [10]. - The following week saw further growth to 51.6 trillion tokens, marking a 127% increase over three weeks, while US invocation dropped to 27 trillion tokens [10]. Model Performance - In the week of February 16-22, 2026, four out of the top five models by invocation volume were from Chinese manufacturers, contributing to 85.7% of the total [10]. - Notable models include MiniMax's M2.5, which contributed 14.4 trillion tokens, and KimiK2.5, which saw its revenue exceed its total for the previous year shortly after launch [10]. Competitive Landscape - Price competitiveness remains significant, with MiniMax-M2.5 and GLM-5 priced at $0.3 per million tokens, compared to Claude Opus4.6 at $5, highlighting a 16.7 times difference [10]. - The report suggests that the value of tokens is shifting from internet traffic to essential resources in the AI era, indicating a potential new business model [10]. Future Outlook - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of large models, with key changes anticipated in business models and market dynamics [10]. - The report emphasizes three main themes: new entry points and commercialization of large models, domestic chip development, and the restructuring of software through agents [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has officially released the "Humanoid Robot and Embodied Intelligence Standard System (2026 Edition)", marking the first comprehensive standard for the humanoid robot industry in China, which signifies the entry of the related industry into a new stage of standardized development [2][6] - The release of this standard system is expected to accelerate the commercialization process of humanoid robots in China, with a focus on the entire industry chain, particularly on suppliers of the "brain" of robots and software-related manufacturers [2][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - The "Standard System" covers the entire industry chain and lifecycle of humanoid robots, establishing a top-level design that aims to standardize the industry [6] Event Commentary - The standard system addresses current industry pain points, such as incompatibility among different manufacturers' hardware interfaces and algorithms, which have hindered the scalability and commercialization of humanoid robots. The new standards are expected to promote modular and universal upgrades, significantly reducing R&D and production costs [12] - The establishment of a national standard system may create a "Chinese standard" for humanoid robots, providing a competitive barrier for domestic manufacturers and laying the groundwork for gaining global industry influence [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities within the humanoid robot industry, particularly on suppliers of robot "brains" and software-related companies [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [8]. Core Insights - The construction sector's performance shows a phase differentiation around the Two Sessions from 2021 to 2025, with most years experiencing an increase in the two trading days before the sessions, while the period during the sessions has seen declines. Post-session, there is often a recovery in the following five trading days [2][6]. - The construction sector is primarily policy-driven, with a notable weakening in the pre-session policy speculation. However, there is a significant recovery following the clarification of policies post-sessions. The report highlights that the Longjiang Construction Engineering Index saw increases in the two trading days before the sessions, except for 2022 and 2025, with a notable 3.9% increase in 2023 [12]. - The report suggests that the industry focus may shift towards cutting-edge technologies related to new productive forces and consumer sectors related to domestic demand expansion [12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The construction sector has shown a mixed performance in the past 12 months, with a notable increase in the Longjiang Construction Engineering Index compared to the CSI 300 index [10]. Event Commentary - The report indicates that the overall resumption of work in early 2023 has improved, with a work resumption rate of 8.9% and a labor utilization rate of 15.5% as of February 25, 2023. The anticipated GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to be set between 4.5% and 5.0% [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the construction sector's response to policy changes, particularly in the context of local debt pressures and the ongoing real estate downturn [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines within the construction sector: 1. **Domestic Demand Chain**: Highlighting companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, China State Construction, and China Railway [12]. 2. **Inflation Chain**: Companies such as China Chemical are expected to benefit from rising commodity prices [12]. 3. **Technology Chain**: Companies involved in cleanroom construction and commercial aerospace are highlighted, including Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in March 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the asset - liability situation of banks. Factors such as high maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possible "rushing for volume" of bank credit at the end of the quarter, demand for improving liquidity regulatory indicators, impact of foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on bank asset - liability behavior, and potential regulatory control over bank inter - bank liability behavior need to be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From February 24 - 28, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan, and the treasury time deposit matured at 15 billion yuan. On February 25, the central bank's medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 30 billion yuan. From March 2 - 6, 2026, 152.5 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. In March, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M repurchase agreements are 100 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity amount is 45 billion yuan [2][6]. - **Funding Rates**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 3.9 and 2.4 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.57% respectively, down 1.1 and 1.0 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 19.036 billion yuan, 52.33 billion yuan less than that from February 9 - 15, 2026. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 21.2 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds at about - 10.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds at about 31.7 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield**: As of February 27, 2026, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.4891% and 1.5550% respectively, down 6.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026. The 1Y yield was 1.5775%, basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 212.4 billion yuan. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 58.8 billion yuan, with a slightly lower maturity renewal pressure. The maturity scale in March is about 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.64 trillion yuan year - on - year and about 1.73 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Bond Market Leverage**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, slightly lower than the average of 107.79% from February 9 - 14, 2026 [9]. - **Pure Bond Fund Duration**: On February 27, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, up 0.07 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 2.06 years, up 0.40 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 美伊冲突如何影响大类资产配置？ ——海外利率与大类资产配置周报 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美伊冲突彻底爆发。对大类资产而言，历史经验表明冲突爆发后，权益短期受冲击后迅速修复 至原水平，发达和新兴均改善，新兴好于发达。债市持续受益，黄金和美元事前受益，金价冲 突后反而回落。而油价受益冲突扩大上行，但冲突结束后低于原水平。我们认为，本轮冲突原 油短期最受益，中枢在 70-80 美元/桶区间波动，除非长期封锁波斯湾，否则油价不会出现大幅 上涨。金价事前受益较多，考虑历史走势，后续金价或因为风险兑现反而回落。但中长期而言， 黄金和铜仍是年内较为推荐的品类。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马骏 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 美伊冲突如何影响大类资产配置？ 2] ——海外利率与大类资产配置周报 [Table_Summary2] 海 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - On February 25, Blue Arrow Aerospace announced that its Zhuque-3 reusable launch vehicle plans to conduct another recovery test in the second quarter of this year, aiming for its first recovery flight in the fourth quarter [3][4] - The successful recovery of reusable rockets is expected to significantly reduce launch costs, accelerating the development of China's commercial aerospace industry [4][9] - The Zhuque-3's first recovery test, although unsuccessful, provided valuable real-world data that can be used to improve technology through a cycle of testing and refinement [4][9] - Multiple Chinese commercial aerospace companies are expected to conduct their first flights or recovery tests within the year, indicating a shift from technological breakthroughs to large-scale development in the industry [4][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - Blue Arrow Aerospace plans to conduct a recovery test for the Zhuque-3 in the second quarter and aims for its first recovery flight in the fourth quarter [3] Event Commentary - The Zhuque-3's first recovery test provided critical data despite its failure, which will aid in refining technology for future tests [4] - The timeline for Zhuque-3's recovery flight could be significantly shorter than that of SpaceX, showcasing China's rapid advancements in commercial aerospace [4] - Other companies like CAS Space and Tianbing Technology are also set to conduct significant tests this year, reflecting a broader trend in the industry towards frequent and cost-effective operations [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [9] Core Views - The overall performance of Hong Kong Exchanges reached a historical high, with revenue and other income for 2025 amounting to HKD 291.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 177.54 billion, up 36.0% year-on-year [5][9] - The report anticipates that with a series of connectivity policies, market liquidity in Hong Kong will continue to rise, leading to increased market activity and valuation [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 291.61 billion, representing a 30.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 177.54 billion, which is a 36.0% increase year-on-year [5][9] - Revenue breakdown by fee type shows significant growth: trading and trading system usage fees increased by 43.73%, listing fees by 20.55%, and settlement and clearing fees by 49.29% [9] Market Activity - The trading activity in the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets saw substantial increases, with the average daily turnover of stock securities rising by 92.9% year-on-year [9] - The report highlights that the number of new listings and the amount raised in the Hong Kong market have also increased significantly, with 119 new companies listed in 2025, raising funds that grew by 236.1% year-on-year [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenue and other income of HKD 326.14 billion, HKD 344.03 billion, and HKD 363.26 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with net profits expected to be HKD 203.53 billion, HKD 214.24 billion, and HKD 225.93 billion [9][10] - Corresponding PE ratios are forecasted to be 25.88, 24.58, and 23.31 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 香港将提交数字资产政策条例草案，关注数字资 产产业投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 香港财政司司长陈茂波在《财政预算案 2026》中表示，政府将于年内会提交数字资产政策条例 草案，就数字资产交易及托管等服务提供者订立发牌制度。此次香港在《财政预算案 2026》关 于数字资产的政策部署明确了后续监管落地、基础设施建设、数字资产相关立法的时间表，是 香港在《政策宣言 2.0》规划下的一次系统性提速，有望加速数据资产产业的规范化发展。建议 关注：1）具备区块链等相关技术的技术供应商；2）具备数字资产的相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 香港将提交数字资产政策条例草案，关注数字 2] 资产产业投资机遇 [Table_Summary2] ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed overall positive performance in the first trading week after the 2026 Spring Festival, with both cyclical and technology growth styles rising[1] - Recent trading activity in the small and micro-cap sectors has seen a rebound, indicating increased market engagement[1] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, petrochemical, metals, and non-metal materials sectors exhibited the highest trading activity during the week[1] - The materials and energy sectors led the weekly gains, with the materials sector outperforming by 5.36%[30] Fund Performance - Quantitative funds showed strong weekly performance, with the quantitative fund overlap index gaining 3.18%[24] - The Northbound heavy stock index also performed well, increasing by 1.49% during the week[24] Style and Theme Tracking - The ChiNext growth index led the weekly performance among styles, with a gain of 8.29%[35] - The "Central Rise" and "Specialized and New" series indices performed well, with the Specialized and New 100 index rising by 6.32%[38]